South Region: Sweet 16

Tennessee vs. Purdue-

This is a pretty even Sweet 16 game, matching the KenPom 9 and 10 against one another. Basically, this should be a coin flip. The first two rounds saw Tennessee scuffle for long periods allowing inferior teams to hang around. Purdue poleaxed defending national champ Villanova in round two. Purdue has looked better between the two, but it’s a new week.

Purdue is 5th in adjustedO, Tennessee is 33rd in adjustedD. That’s a sizable advantage for the Boilers. However, the Vols hold teams to an effective fg% of 47.6%, dominating in the paint. Double however, they’re allowing teams to shoot  35% from 3, only 207th in the nation. Purdue is 78th offensively in effective fg% and 60th in 3-pt shooting. They’re also a good rebounding team on offesne and Tennessee is a bad defensive rebounding team. Boilers should get an extra possession or two and if it’s a toss-up...

Not to be outdone, Tennessee is 3rd in offensive efficiency and 21st in effective fg%. They’re like Purdue, a good 3-point shooting team but better 2-point shooting team. They’re also good at offensive rebounding, not Purdue good but above average. Purdue is 27th in defensive efficiency and lesser on defensive real shooting than the Vols. Basically, these teams are Spider-Man pointing at his doppelgänger. This goes either way but I’ve seen some real bad Purdue moments that give me pause.

The Pick: Tennessee 73 Purdue 72

Virginia vs. Oregon-

So, we go from a toss-up to a game where one team is favored by 10 with an 82% win probability. That said, Oregon was 67th in KenPom at the end of February and are up to 27th. They’ve won 10 in a row, including the PAC-12 title game by 20 and by 18 over Wisconsin. I’m saying there’s a chance but it’s slim.

The Ducks have a real good defense. Teams only shoot 29% from 3, that’s 6th best in the nation. Overall, the defensive effective fg% is 19th best in the nation. As we know, if Virginia has had an Achilles heel, it has been those droughts. Difference is this Cavalier team shoots 40% from 3, 6th best in the nation. As they say, something has to give.

As I noted about the Ducks against the Badgers, playing slow won’t bother them. Virginia is way slower but it’s not like the Ducks are going to be bothered by that style. Virginia’s defense is the greater concern for them than pace. The Ducks have a punchers chance in this one, they really do but they’ll need Virginia to miss a lot of shots and the Ducks defense can make that happen. Ultimately, I think Virginia is simply a better team and pulls away late for a comfortable victory.


The Picks: Virginia 65 Oregon 53