LSU vs. Michigan State-
What a great game for all those people that love old school toughness against those cheating bastards from the bayou. East Lansing and MSU might be a cesspool but they sure are OLD SKOOL TOUGH. Does LSU have a chance? In a nutshell, I don’t see it.
I dove into the numbers looking for a way LSU can win and nothing is there. Everything LSU does well, Sparty does as well or better. It would take an uncharacteristic performance from Sparty. If LSU has one thing going for them is, they do turn teams over and Michigan State is turnover prone. I just can’t see Cassius Winston letting that happen. There’s a lot of Matean Cleaves in him (Hopefully just the basketball part).
The Pick: Michigan State 68 LSU 60
Duke vs. Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech won earlier in the season at home. Duke was without Zion Williamson but the Hokies were without Justin Robinson. Duke is a decent favorite but not overwhelming. The Hokies are 11th in KenPom and top 20 on both sides of the ball. Duke is top 10 on both sides.
Virginia Tech is 13th in real shooting, but Duke is 9th defensively. Duke is also 13th in 3-pt % defense. They’re 3rd in block % and 4th in steal %. They also don’t foul. This isn’t a good Duke defense, this is a great Duke defense. They’re weakness is rebounding. Tech is 9th in 3-pt shooting. Something has to give.
Tech is 19th in defensive efficiency and don’t foul as well. They force a lot of turnovers. Duke is slightly above average at protecting the ball and elite at offensive rebounding. Tech is slightly above average at defensive rebounding. Duke has a slight advantage here and with Zion, I think that outweighs VPI adding Robinson on this side of the ball.
The Hokies are slow. 332nd in tempo while Duke is one of the quickest teams in the nation. Can one of them dictate pace? Duke didn’t blink against Virginia and only lost by 5 in Blacksburg. Buzz Williams more than anything wants to beat great coaches. Does it mean anything?
The Pick: Duke 77 VPI 72
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