Saturday Afternoon Musings

- Good win for Marquette. But at some point, it'd be nice to start some game without being down by double digits before the first TV timeout. DJO took over today.

- I am a Baylor non-believer. They beat Texas today but if Texas hits their freebies, Baylor has another Saturday loss. How can Texas get that many second chance looks against that front line?

- Syracuse got an ugly win today thanks to some shoddy officiating. Bit of a Fab Melo malaise still but give them credit. They are 2-1 without him with two gritty wins over Cincinnati and West Virginia.

- Iowa State and the Mayor gets that signature win by defeating a sluggish Kansas team. Iowa State is a program on the rise.

He's Back

A year later than expected, the St. Louis Billikens are bullying their way back to the Big Dance. An efficiency machine, the Billikens are 13th overall in KenPom thanks to a 26th AdjO and 11th AdjD. The efficiency is on offense with an emphasis on defense.

The defense is very good with a chance to be great. They're 7th in scoring defense and are strong on stopping teams beyond the arc. They're weaker inside and foul too much, sending teams to the line more often than most. They make up for it by giving away less second opportunities on rebounds and force turnovers on 24.7% of opponent possessions.

Offensively, they're, well, efficient. They don't turn the ball over and make three pointers, 29th in the nation. They don't get to the line a lot and are weak on the boards offensively but their possessions are typically productive if not glamorous. Think old school Wisconsin, so there is potential for ugly.

St. Louis has a SOS of 105 and a RPI of 42. At 15-4, 3 of their 4 losses are to top 50 RPI teams. The only home loss is to Temple, a likely tourney team. St. Louis also poached a nice win at reeling Xavier the other night. Brian has them as an 11 seed and I think they might move up but as a potential second round matchup for a 2 or 3, they'll be a difficult matchup, especially with only 2 days between games. They will be a team to watch as a surprise Sweet 16 participant depending on matchups as they could really frustrate some younger teams that are sloppy with the ball or trigger happy. Good job, fat Rick Majerus. You're a disgusting man but a heckuva coach.

Final Four Revisited

At the start of the season I nominated the following teams as my Final four picks. Let’s see how we’re doing so far.

Duke: Of course I took them, what did you expect? They have a gaudy record but the numbers behind the scenes aren' as glamorous, just 87th in defensive efficiency. Last night’s game showed me something though as they still won shooting horrendously from behind the arc. Is Mason Plumlee coming into his own or was last night a fluke. This is the difference between a Final Four run or a Sweet Sixteen elimination

Kentucky: Looked good on paper and looks good during the season. Terrence Jones has been a no-show all year but this team is loaded with talent. Preseason I had them as 1 of 2 possible champions and I’m sticking with it so far. The other possible champion….

Syracuse: 1A to Kentucky’s 1B, I loved them leading up to the season and nothing has changed. I thought the Bernie Fine scandal might be a distraction but they seemed to have moved on and forgot all about it. A recent bump against Notre Dame is a non-factor and as long as Fab Melo comes back I’m penciling them in for another Final Four run.

UCLA: And Boom goes the Dynamite. This team was a disaster from the get go. Losing to Loyola Marymount and booting Reeves Nelson, their best player, off the team it has been one mistake after another. Not only is this team not going to the final four, they might not even be going to the NIT. Is Ben Howland’s job safe?

My other 4 preseason Elite Eight teams were North Carolina, Ohio State, Louisville, and Michigan. Louisville is a reach but the other 3 are still in it.

March Madness Memories - The Fro

Team Spotlight - Marquette

Today let’s take a look at everybody’s favorite Gold standard school , Marquette. Currently ranked #17 by the AP, this season has been surprisingly different than the past 5-6. Usually Marquette has approximately the same record as this year at 17-4 but this year’s squad is actually supported by their computer number. Sitting comfortably with an RPI of 13 they are greatly helped by their SOS which is hovering around 25. In years’ past this number has been around 150 at this point and normally drags down their RPI into 60+ bubble range. Not this year though.
Marquette’s 4 losses have come against teams ranked in the RPI 100 with the lowest being at #71 LSU. The other three losses, vs Vandy, @ Georgetown, and @ Syracuse are all understandable. Their upcoming schedule only features two ranked teams, @ UConn, and vs Georgetown. With 6 road games sprinkled in I can see them only losing 2 more games the rest of the regular season. If this holds true the Warriors look to go into the Big East tournament at a very healthy 25-6 with a 3 seed in the NCAA bracket. Outside of 1st round Big East loss that 3 seed is most likely for this squad although a 2 seed can be had with a decent Big East tournament showing.
I never thought I would say this about a Buzz Williams led Warrior team but things are looking up and they may be dangerous come March.

Tuesday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs L.Island(NEC)/MissValley(SWAC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Boston(Aeast)/Tex-Arlington
Syracuse (Beast) vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)
Kansas (Big12) vs Norfolk State
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Weber St (BigSky)
North Carolina vs George Mason (CAA)
Duke (ACC) vs Belmont (Asun)
Michigan State vs Bucknell (Patriot)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Georgetown vs Nevada (WAC)
Baylor vs Cleveland State (Horizon)
Marquette vs Akron (MAC)
Creighton (MVC) vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Vanderbilt vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Wisconsin vs Davidson (SoCon)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Connecticut vs New Mexico State
5 seed vs 12 seed
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Oregon/Minnesota
Indiana vs Central Florida (Cusa)
UNLV vs Cincinnati/Colorado State
Kansas State vs Dayton (A10)
6 seed vs 11 seed
San Diego St (Mwest) vs Xavier
Murray State (OVC) vs St. Louis
Michigan vs Iowa State
West Virginia vs North Carolina State
7 seed vs 10 seed
Seton Hall vs Harvard (Ivy)
Illinois vs New Mexico
Gonzaga vs California (Pac12)
Wichita State vs Temple
8 seed vs 9 seed
Florida State vs Southern Miss
Virginia vs Purdue
Louisville vs Memphis
Mississippi State vs Alabama

First Four Out
Mississippi
Texas
BYU
Marshall
Next Four Out
VCU
Colorado
Northwestern
Notre Dame
Also Considered
Northern Iowa
Arkansas
St. Joseph's
Massachusettes
Miami
South Dakota State
Virgina Tech
Oklahoma
LSU
South Florida
LaSalle
Arizona
Denver
Stanford
Ohio
Missouri State
Washington
Wyoming
New Mexico State
Wagner
Pittsburgh
Maryland
Drexel

RIP Jim Irwin

One of the cherished memories of being a sports fan