Monday, March 18, 2024

Re-Seed Midwest

1. Purdue (3)
2. Tennessee (7)
3. Creighton (11)
4. Gonzaga (15)
5. Kansas (22)
6. Texas (27)
7. TCU (33)
8. Colorado State (38)
9. Utah State (48)
10. South Carolina 49
11. Oregon (55)
12. McNeese State (60)
13. Virginia (69)

Notes

- Potential chaos region. 4&5 are on high alert. Zags are a year away. If they can keep the roster together, they’ll be in the mix to enter 2024-25 as the number 1 team. Kansas was a bit of a mess roster-wise before the injuries. 4-5 losing benefits Purdue who should beat either the 8 or 9.

- Virginia is a disgrace which means a sweet-16 probably. I’d have to look but they’re one of the worst at-large bid teams from a KenPom perspective in history. Tempted to ride Colorado State into the Sweet 16 and Niko Medved taking the Michigan gig. Tennessee has entered prove it territory for me. Big time trust issues, Vols.

- If the Sweet 16 is 1, 3, 10, 12, wouldn’t be surprised. I promised myself I’d pick Purdue after Maui but let’s do what I’ve historically done and break all promises to myself and pick Creighton. Better defense than you think and a top-15 offense. Plus, a body to throw at Edey.

Re-Seed South

1. Houston (2)
2. Duke (8)
3. Marquette (12)
4. Wisconsin (17)
5. Kentucky (19)
6. Texas Tech (24)
7. Colorado (26)
8. Nebraska (28)
9. Florida (29)
10. Boise State (39)
11. Texas A&M (44)
12. NC State (58)
13. JMU (59)

Notes:

- Probably the most balanced region? 9 top 30 teams probably makes up for the sort of weak top 4. Bid thief appears here and just reiterates what a disaster tourney week was for the actually heath of this bracket.

- Colorado in the play-in game is a borderline crime but they did hire Prime Time and they have to pay for that across all sports. At Marquette’s expense, I can see them playing into the Sweet 16.

- The love affair Kentucky is getting is odd. The offense is blistering but the defense is 108th in the nation. That kind of team gets punted early. It won’t be Oakland but Texas Tech can make some 3’s.

- Wisconsin got no favors with JMU and/or Duke. I suspect the Badgers will be up for JMU but Duke’s the kind of team that can match buckets with them and plays better defense than they get credit for.  I’ve seen some Vermont upset chatter but this isn’t a vintage Catamount team.

- I’m going to pick Houston because I think everyone is passing on them after the Iowa State game. They should be healthier. The offense is a legit concern and if they met Marquette in the regional final, I could see a 54-53 type rock fight.

Re-Seed West

1. Arizona (6)
2. UNC (9)
3. Alabama (13)
4. Baylor (14)
5. Michigan State (18)
6. St. Mary’s (20)
7. New Mexico (23)
8. Mississippi State (30)
9. Dayton (32)
10. Clemson (34)
11. Nevada (36)
12. Grand Canyon (53)

Notes:

- The top is somewhat weak here. Bama and Baylor are great offensive teams but aren’t much on defense. That said, Bama has a favorable draw.

- Leaning towards New Mexico into the Sweet 16 as a bid thief. Really like them against Clemson and I’m just not sold on Baylor. Baylor has NBA players but something hasn’t felt right about them all year. Big wild card in this region.

- Grand Canyon will get a lot of love over St. Mary’s and rightfully so. They’re 10th in the nation in defensive effective fg% because they have 5 guys that can block shots. Interestingly, both teams are very good offensive rebounding teams, so can one win that box? St. Mary’s plays slow and is eh on offense. 

- Michigan State is loved by the computers and is reminiscent of ‘21 Wisconsin who was an 9-seed and had similar computer numbers. That Badger team was 18-13, this Spartan team is 19-14. Trust the eye test. They ain’t making the Sweet 16.

- Seeding is wonky between 6-11 versus KenPom. This region has the opportunity for some volatility and possibly producing a surprise Final 4 participant but I’ll take Arizona who is plus-plus in all of the 4 factors. I ain’t confident in it but I have to pick someone.

Re-Seed East

1. UConn (1)
2. Auburn (4)
3. Iowa State (5)
4. Illinois (10)
5. BYU (16)
6. SDSU (21)
7. FAU (41)
8. Washington State (42)
9. Northwestern (46)
10. Drake (51)
11. Duquesne (86)
12. UAB (106)

Notes:

- We have two bid thieves here. The Dukes and the Blazers. Their KenPom rankings show what a wrench they threw into the bracketing. Having watched UAB play, though, I do wonder if their super athleticism gives SDSU a lot of grief in the opener. 

- It is the toughest top 4-seeds of any region but I still think UConn breezes through this region. Not convinced Iowa State can match them bucket for bucket and Auburn’s resume is razor-thin.  UConn has that spurtability that ISU lacks and can blow the door off Auburn.

- No quibbles with the seeding here. BYU is a 6 because they don’t play on Sundays.

- Of the 14-3 matchups, if I had the money to waste, I’d take a flyer on Morehead State. Illinois doesn’t play a lick of defense. Only concern here is, Morehead State plays slow. If Illinois is making buckets, game over.

The pick is UConn

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Final Bracket for 2024

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Uconn(Beast) vs Montana St (Bsky)/Wagner (NEC)

Purdue vs Stetson(Asun)/Grambling(SWAC)

Houston vs Howard(MEAC)

N.Carolina vs St.Peter's(MAAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Tennessee vs Longwood(Bsouth)

Arizona vs W.Kentucky(Cusa)

Marquette vs S.Dakota St(Summit)

Iowa State(B12) vs Long Beach St(Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Creighton vs Colgate(Pat)

Baylor vs Oakland(Horizon)

Illinois(B1G) vs Morehead(OVC)

Kentucky vs Akron (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Auburn(SEC) vs Charleston(CAA)

Duke vs Vermont(Aeast)

Kansas vs UAB(AAC)

Alabama vs Yale(Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

BYU vs Duquesne(A10)

South Carolina vs McNeese St(Sland)

Wisconsin vs Samford(SoCon)

Utah State vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

St. Mary's(WCC) vs NC State(ACC)

Florida vs Oregon(P12)

Texas Tech vs Drake(Mvalley)

San Diego St vs James Madison(Sbelt)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Washington St vs Oklahoma/St John's

Nevada vs TCU/Colorado

Gonzaga vs FAU

Boise State vs Michigan St

8 seed vs 9 seed

Clemson vs Dayton

Nebraska vs Colorado St

Northwestern vs Mississippi State

Texas vs New Mexico(MW)

First Four Out

Pittsburgh

Texas A&M

Indiana St

Virginia

Next Four Out

Seton Hall

Providence

Villanova

Iowa

 

Bracket As Of This Morning

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Uconn(Beast) vs Montana St (Bsky)/Wagner (NEC)

Purdue vs Grambling(SWAC)/Longwood(Bsouth)

Houston vs Stetson(Asun)

N.Carolina vs Howard(MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Tennessee vs St.Peter's(MAAC)

Arizona vs W.Kentucky(Cusa)

Marquette vs S.Dakota St(Summit)

Iowa State(B12) vs Long Beach ST(Bwest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Creighton vs Colgate(Pat)

Baylor vs Oakland(Horizon)

Illinois(B1G) vs Morehead(OVC)

Kentucky vs Akron (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Auburn(SEC) vs Charleston(CAA)

Duke vs Vermont(Aeast)

Kansas vs UAB(AAC)

Alabama vs Yale(Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

BYU vs McNeese St(Sland)

South Carolina vs VCU (A10)

Wisconsin vs Samford(SoCon)

St. Mary's(WCC) vs Grand Canyon(WAC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Florida vs NC State(ACC)

Nevada vs Oregon(P12)

Texas Tech vs Drake(Mvalley)

Washington St vs James Madison(Sbelt)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Utah State vs Oklahoma/St John's

San Diego St vs TCU/Colorado

Gonzaga vs Michigan St

Boise State vs Dayton

8 seed vs 9 seed

Clemson vs Colorado St

Nebraska vs FAU

Northwestern vs Mississippi State

Texas vs New Mexico(MW)

First Four Out

Pittsburgh

Texas A&M

Indiana St

Virginia

Next Four Out

Seton Hall

Providence

Villanova

Iowa

Also Considered

Ohio State

Wake Forest

Kansas St

Saturday, March 16, 2024

Today's Bids

 

America East: #1 Vermont vs #2 Mass-Lowell

Pick - Vermont

MEAC: #4 Howard vs #6 Delaware State

Pick – Delaware State

SWAC: #1 Grambling vs #3 Texas Southern

Pick – Texas Southern

Big 12: #1 Houston vs #2 Iowa State

Pick – Iowa State

Mountain West: #6 San Diego State vs #6 New Mexico

Pick – San Diego State

Big East: #1 Uconn vs #3 Marquette

Pick -Uconn

MAC: #2 Akron vs #8 Kent State

Pick - Akron

MAAC: #2 Fairfield vs #5 St.Peter’s

Pick - Fairfield

ACC: #1 North Carolina vs #10 North Carolina State

Pick – North Carolina

C-USA: #3 Western Kentucky vs #5 UTEP

Pick - UTEP

Pac 12: #3 Colorado vs #4 Oregon

Pick - Colorado

Big West: #2 UC-Davis vs #4 Long Beach State

Pick – Long Beach State

WAC: #1 Grand Canyon vs #3 UT-Arlington

Pick – Grand Canyon