Michigan vs. Oregon: Oregon is a 1-point KenPom favorite with a 52% probability and Vegas likes Michigan by one. In other words, a toss-up. Oregon is a slightly more balanced team. Michigan has a better offense by 13 spots on KenPom, but Oregon beats them by 48 on defense.
This is one of those games we look at and say "momentum". Michigan played well through February and after the run through the Big 14 Tournament and the opening weekend, they appear to have all the "momentum".
Momentum is one of those things numbers people hate. They simply don't believe in it. I don't dismiss it, though. I've seen too many weird things in my life, whether it be a streaking team or sudden change in a single game. Is it real? I can't say for sure but there's at least something to it. I also know it can end abruptly if it is real.
After that aside, this should be a close game. I think Oregon has slightly more talent.
The Pick: Oregon 71 Michigan 70
Kansas vs. Purdue
What a great matchup this is, too. Kansas is a 3-point KenPom favorite. They're more dynamic on offense but I like what Purdue did on the opening weekend. I think the key is whether Landen Lucas can stay on the court against Purdue's bigs. This is a home game for Kansas.
The Pick: Kansas 75 Purdue 73
WEST
Gonzaga vs. West Virginia: By the numbers, this is the best of the Sweet 16 matchups. KenPom likes the Zags by 4. The advantage is the Zags number 1 defense against West Virginia's number 25 offense. The Mountaineees are more efficient on offense.
West Virginia thrives on its pressure. The Zags were the 16th best team at protecting the ball. The Mountaineers were one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, the Zags one of the best at preventing them.
Do the Zags have enough basketball speed to match West Virginia? If they do, they win.
The Pick: Gonzaga 81 West Virginia 75
Arizona vs. Xavier: A rematch from two seasons ago, Sean Miller takes on his former team one more time. Given the love affair the national media seems to have with this Arizona squad, it's not that big a stretch for Xavier to steal this one.
At KenPom, Zona is a 4-point favorite. That's not huge but big enough Zona has a 65% win probability. Zona is 19th overall, X is 30th. Basically, I'm looking for a reason to pick Xavier but we need to take a step back before saying they've figured things out after a late-season fade.
They notched late wins against DePaul and then beat Butler in the BE Tournament. They beat an overseeded Maryland team (It's about matchups!) and them trounced a Florida State team that was 24th in KenPom at the time, closer to a 7-seed than 3. I'm not dismissing what Xavier has done. They've jumped ten spots in KP in a week.
Chris Mack is the best coach in America no one talks about. He's the best guy for Indiana, though I hope he stays in Cincinnati. He'll have his team ready and some plays out of timeouts that steal baskets. I just don't think they have enough dudes to beat Arizona.
The Pick: Arizona 69 Xavier 62
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