Friday Sweet 16

South

Butler vs. North Carolina: Carolina is a 4-point KenPom favorite, 7 in the desert. At first blush, I'm not sure how Butler matches up across the floor agaisnt the Tar Heels. Then we realize Butler won't be intimidated and swept Villanova. Nova didn't have nearly the size, though. Butler needs to keep Chrabascz on the floor and effective. I think that's a tall order. Butler doesn't have the tempo or pressure Arkansas did to force Carolina into lost possessions. They'll have to d them up and Butler is 24 spots below the Tar Heels in efficiency. Butler needs Carolina to help them or needs to play as well as the Bulldogs have all year. They keep it close but UNC pulls away late.

The Pick: North Carolina 80 Butler 69

Kentucky vs. UCLA: For many, this is the main event of the Sweet 16. There are some pieces floating around touting the Bruins defense as not really being that inefficient. It's partly true but that's built on a lot of bad teams in the Pac-12. And let's not dismiss Kentucky's offense. It's not exactly chopped liver. I don't have a feel one way or the other. 

The Pick: Kentucky 92 UCLA 88

East

Baylor vs. South Carolina: South Carolina had offensive explosions versus two awful defensive teams. They are still a putrid offensive team. Baylor is easily the best defensive team the Cocks have seen and they don't have a home court advantage. Baylor is ok on offense. This will be the slowest game of the first round and I think that helps keep South Carolina in it. Baylor is just better and wins.

The Pick: Baylor 60 South Carolina 54

Wisconsin vs. Florida: I dismissed both teams as making the Sweet 16, yet both are here. Florida quietly gets it done. They don't wow you with the numbers ever being third overall in KenPom but everything is very effective and efficient. Look at their four factors and miscellaneous components on KenPom and its all good or great. I missed the boat on them. Wisconsin nearly matches them but have more concern areas. Does experience matter? If it does, that'll be a huge advantage for Bucky. Still, Florida is putting a team on the court that has also played together a lot the last two years. Since life is pain...

The Pick: Wisconsin 62 Florida 61