Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Another Bracket Projection

East Bracket:
Winner - Duke - yes, I know, shocking.  I would have gone with Villanova with any other #2 but I love how this team is coming together.  The smartest move was putting Grayson Allen at the 6 man and use his offense when they were lacking it in bursts.  Nova-Duke should be epic but I look for Tatum and Jefferson to own the inside with Giles starting to show signs of life.

Upset Pick - I wanted to take UNC-Wilmington but Virginia will probably dictate pace, ruin the game, and cause me to drink a ton.  I have East Tennessee State in the Sweet 16 after upsetting Florida and Virginia

Upset Everybody Likes That Won't Happen - I already spoke about UNC-Wilmington so I'm going with SMU.  Solid KenPom numbers but too much talk about them not only beating Baylor but Duke as well.  I have them in the Sweet 16 now but am considering pulling them out.

West Bracket:
Winner - Gonzaga - I'm with Kurly, been on them all year as well.  It greatly helps that everybody at ESPN and CBS Sports is off them.  They look good, play good, and their numbers are solid.  I didn't pick them at 4:45pm on Sunday during the bracket show but I did now

Upset Pick - Meh, Xavier.  I know they are an 11 seed but Maryland is limping in and over-seeded.  I considered Florida Gulf Coast but too many people are on them

Upset Everybody Likes That Won't Happen - I already mentioned FGCU.  I'm now picking Florida State.  The other huge one is Arizona in the Final Four.  KenPom numbers are average and everybody who gets a paycheck from ESPN is taking them.  Count me out.

South Bracket:
Winner - Kentucky.  My original bracket had UCLA but there's no way that defense doesn't cost them in the tournament.  My next one had North Carolina but Roy will coach his way out of the game.  Next up is Kentucky and I'm not 100% on them either.  Too many close calls, bad starts, and average games lately.  They've one them all but these are not mid-level SEC teams anymore.  I could see Wichita State winning in the second round.  I'm not picking them but it wouldn't surprise me.

Upset Pick - Middle Tennessee State.  Just like everybody else. True story, I had Wisconsin and Minnesota as 6 seeds at 4:15 on Sunday and needed to drop one to make room for my 7 seeded Michigan who I was moving up after winning the Big 10 Tournament.  I asked Kurly for advice and he pointed out the numbers and the fact that Wisconsin beat Minnesota twice.  So Minnesota dropped.  I felt like I butchered that but in truth the committee just over seeded the Gophers.

Upset Everybody Likes That Won't Happen - West Bracket:
Winner - Gonzaga - I'm with Kurly, been on them all year as well.  It greatly helps that everybody at ESPN and CBS Sports is off them.  They look good, play good, and their numbers are solid.  I didn't pick them at 4:45pm on Sunday during the bracket show but I did now

Upset Pick - Meh, Xavier.  I know they are an 11 seed but Maryland is limping in and over-seeded.  I considered Florida Gulf Coast but too many people are on them

Upset Everybody Likes That Won't Happen - Not much here.  Everybody is in love with the top 3 seeds.  I haven't seen anybody take Dayton over Wichita which would qualify.  However, the Shockers are so under seeded I can't take the Flyers.  Middle Tennessee qualifies as well.

Midwest Bracket:
Winner - *Iowa State* - I starred it because I haven't locked this one in.  Kansas is the favorite but Bill Self never does well in this spot and their defense disappears at times.  Louisville has better defense but fell apart against a below average Duke zone that forced them to score from outside...which they struggle to do.  Oregon isn't whole but Brooks could carry them.  Purdue is from the Big 10 so they are out.  Iowa State has what you need.  Great coach, upper-classman, finishing hot.  Defense is iffy but trending upwards

Upset Pick - Rhode Island.  Its taken a long time but they are finally here.  Creighton is ripe or the upset.

Upset Everybody Likes That Won't Happen - Nevada.  Everybody loves the 12-5 upset but it only happens half the time.  This one isn't it.

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