Vulnerable #1 Seeds

As of this morning our #1 seeds are Kentucky, Virginia, Duke, and Villanova in that order.  Of those 4 who is the most vulnerable to be upset early by an 8 or 9 seed?  Let’s start by throwing out Kentucky as they are a clear #1 above all other teams.  That leaves Villanova, Duke, and Virginia.  

Most people’s first reaction is going to be Wildcats after all they just moved into the top line and nobody has been talking about them.  However, upon closer inspection this is more a case of people not knowing what they should be looking at instead of a team not being good enough.  Villanova is one of only 5 teams that rank in the top 20 in both offense and defense efficiency.  They only have 2 losses, both away from home.  One was in overtime against Seton Hall when they were playing above their heads and the other was at Georgetown, currently projected as a 6 seed.  Villanova has Final Four written all over them and don’t cross them off early when filling out your bracket.

That leaves Duke and Virginia.  Who’s most likely to lose to that under seeded 8 or 9 team?  I’m actually going to take the easy way out and say both of them.  Duke’s defensive efficiency has steadily dropped throughout the season and now sits in the 70’s.  It’s near impossible to win a championship with that lax of defense even if you have the #1 offensive.  Teams have shown how to double and pull Okafor out of the post and it’s amazing that teams don’t follow that game plan.  I chalk it up to poor coaching on other teams part (plus Jim Larrinaga is a genius).  As for Virginia everybody talks about their defense but history has shown in the past couple years that officials in the NCAA tournament won’t let teams get away with the bump and grind that started with basketball Anti-Christ Dick Bennett in the early 2000’s.  Virginia is a great defensive team but they aren’t as deep as other teams and if those tight fouls get called they might have problems.  In addition a team that can spread out and attack early in the shot clock can have success.   I’d be weary of a team like St. John’s or Iowa who are projected today as an 8 or 9.  I also have Michigan State and Cincinnati projected as 9 seeds and a matchup like that might be enough to poke your eyes out.