Wednesday, March 4, 2015

Ohio State

I mentioned on Monday I thought Ohio State was a bit of a sleeper. The Buckeyes currently sit 16th in KenPom and are 21-8 overall (10-6 in Big Ten play). They're 20th in tempo free O and 34th in tempo free D. Let's take a closer look.

Ohio State really does a lot of things well on offense. They have an effective fg% of 55.6%, 12th best in the nation. From 2, they shoot 54.9% (12th overall) and 38.1% from 3 (44th overall). They protect the ball, 17% turnover % (50th overall) and are ok on the offensive glass with an offensive rebounding % of 34.7% (69th, nice). They don't shoot free throws well. They're only a 67.6% FT shooting team but they don't spend a lot of time at the line.

On defense, opponents only have an effective fg% of 45.8%, 49th overall. They force a chunk of turnovers with a 23% turnover % (17th overall). The Buckeyes have a steal % of 12%, 20th best. They're a poor defensive rebounding team. Opponents get 31.5% if misses (199th overall). They do not foul very much. They also block a their share of shots, with an impressive 15.6% block rate (9th best). 

The star of the Buckeyes is Super Frosh, D'Angelo Russell. What doesn't he do? Besides highlight reel passes, he shoots 42% from 3. The standard numbers jump out at you. He's a 19/6/6 guy. He just doesn't get enough help. Big man Sr. Amir Williams is a defensive presence. He has an 11% block rate, 25th best in the nation. Problem is, he tends to disappear for times. He's been a frustrating player for Buckeye fans. Shannon Scott runs the offense and is a good assist man but is a shaky shooter. Marc Loving has plenty of talent but as his suspension shows, they haven't been able to count on him. Can someone complement Russell this month?

Ohio State doesn't have bad losses on the resume, except a no-show effort against Michigan a few weeks back. They also don't have a "great" win on the resume. I've laid out I think Maryland is overrated and while they've beaten other Big Ten tournament teams, the non-conference slate is week.

Ohio State making the Sweet 16 wouldn't shock me. I'm just not counting on it. Let's see how they do at home against Wisconsin this Sunday.

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