Arizona vs. Wisconsin - This is a Final Four level game. Arizona is a bigger favorite this year than they were last year according to KenPom, albeit just a single point. Arizona was pretty impressive last week but looked ordinary last night against Xavier. Wisconsin hasn't looked great but is winning because the offense, while efficient in the past, doesn't have the droughts that used to kill it.
When the brackets came out, I liked Arizona in this region. I shouldn't let one game cloud my judgement but the Arizona that makes you nervous showed up last night. They looked tight and made some uncharacteristic choices. Do that tomorrow and Wisconsin is far more equipped to take advantage than Xavier.
Arizona has pointed to this game seemingly all year, upset by last year's loss. There's an awful lot of pressure on them. I'm of the mindset they have to and Sean Miller has to, prove they can get over the hump. Until they do, I'm picking against them despite my initial thoughts. The Pick: Wisconsin 69 Arizona 66
MIDWEST REGION
Kentucky vs. Notre Dame - Let's dispel the idea Notre Dame can shoot themselves to a victory. They could. They're the 2nd best 3pt. shooting team but Kentucky is the best at defending the 3, largely because of how long and quick they are. If Butler could defend Notre Dame from beyond the arc, let's assume Kentucky can.
The other issues that will hamper Notre Dame's upset attempt will be their lack of rebounding and short bench. Notre Dame is one of the worst rebounding teams in the nation and has one of the shortest benches. On top of that, they lack the size to defend Kentucky all over the court. Wichita State got to the basket at will and won the rebound battle. They won't win against Kentucky if that happens.
It'll take a Villanova-Georgetown effort for Notre Dame to win. They can shoot but simply can't match Kentucky in any other area. The Pick: Kentucky 80 Notre Dame 66
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