The Word is Tempo

As usual, Monday was HOT TAKE Monday with regards to the brackets. Every pundit gave their bract, Final Four, etc. First up was a beautiful piece of hot trash by Forbes about why it would be good for college basketball if Wisconsin won the national title. Here's a piece that completely eviscerated that notion

Later, on one of the ESPN debate shows, Bomani Jones made the egregious mistake of saying he didn't like the style Virginia or Wisconsin play, which is slow tempo. Immediately, Badger twitter and social media was in an uproar, yelling this is the best offensive team Bo has ever had, and they're right. Jones simply stated he didn't like T-E-M-P-O. This Badger team is crazy efficient, protects the ball and doesn't foul (according to Big Ten refs, anyway). Jones went on to point out last years team was actually 5 possessions faster. Why is he arguing tempo? Here's why.

The following is a list of all Final Four teams in the KenPom era and the number of possessions they averaged that season.

2014: Wisconsin (63.8), Kentucky (65.2), UConn (64.6), Florida (62.5)
2013: Louisville (66.8), Michigan (65.1), Syracuse (64.2), Wichita State (65.1)
2012: Kentucky (66.2), Ohio State (68.2), Kansas (67), Louisville (66.9)
2011: Kentucky (65.9), UConn (65.4), VCU (66.1), Butler (64.4)
2010: Duke (65.5), West Virginia (63.3), Butler (64.1), Michigan State (66.1)
2009: North Carolina (73.9), Michigan State (67.3), Villanova (69.2), UConn (68.4)
2008: Kansas (67.8), Memphis (68.8), North Carolina (74), UCLA (65.5)
2007: Florida (66.8), Ohio State (65.9), Georgetown (59.9), UCLA (64.3)
2006: Florida (68), UCLA (62.8), LSU (68.7), George Mason (63.7)
2005: North Carolina (73.9), Illinois (65.1), Michigan State (67.6), Louisville (68)
2004: Duke (69.8), UConn (69.7), Oklahoma State (66), Georgia Tech (70.3)
2003: Kansas (73.1), Syracuse (72.1). Marquette (67.2), Texas (70.9)
2002: Maryland (75.1), Kansas (78.3), Oklahoma (68.9), Indiana (66.9)

We have one outlier here, Georgetown in 2007 who averaged 59.9 possessions per game.

Now, a counterargument can be made the game has slowed down and Final 4 teams averaging less than 60 possessions per game will start making the Final 4 more often. Maybe, but only 9 teams averaged less than 60 possessions per game this year. 3 of them are Virginia, Wisconsin & Northern Iowa. Another 15 averaged less than 61 a game.

In 2002, Kansas averaged 78.3 possessions per game, 3rd highest. History shows us Roy Williams teams play fast. The highest tempo team that year was Alabama A&M, who averaged 79.6 possessions per game. In 2002, not rounding up, 150 teams averaged 70+ possessions per game. This year? 10. Yuck. FWIW, 3 of those teams are in the bracket: BYU, UNC & Arkansas. LSU, Lafayette, Hampton, Iowa State & Buffalo are all over 69.

The Hoyas as the outlier deserved a closer look. they beat Vandy in the Sweet 16 by 1-point and beat Carolina in the Elite 8 in overtime. We can deduce luck played a role (and you can argue that in any close game) and it did, partially. Carolina missed 22 of 23 shots over a 15 minute span, including its first 12 of overtime. There's good defense and then there's a complete collapse by an offense. Kudos to the Hoyas for taking advantage and scoring 96 points in 74-possession game, including 81 in regulation.

The conclusion is this, Jones argument that slower tempo teams are harder to trust in March bears true. It doesn't mean a thing is guaranteed. At some point, we'll have outliers and the game tempo in general is only getting slower. That said, history shouldn't be ignored either.