First Round Preview

East Region:

I say chalk holds form here with the only upset coming courtesy of UC-Irvine over Louisville. The Anteaters hold teams to an effective fg% of 44.7%. Louisville can't shoot. Irvine also has big men, 7'6" Mamadou Ndiaye and 7'2" Ioannis Diamakopoulos. It has the potential to be a rock fight no one should watch under any circumstance.

I give a punchers chance to Belmont.

8/9 Coin Flip: LSU vs. NC State - Between these two teams, it all comes down to which one doesn't beat itself. According to KenPom, it's a COIN FLIP. I'm making the 8 the head and the 9 tails. It comes up tails in this one, so it's Geaux Tigers.

West Region:

Wofford has been a trendy pick over Arkansas. They line up somewhat close by Four Factors with the Terriers scoring an advantage in effective fg% on both sides of the ball. This is the most important number of the Four Factors, so it's not far fetched. I still lean Arkansas because they have the best player, Bobby Portis. Xavier is a weird team, capable of winning or losing just about any game. I'm not picking them to lose to Ole Miss but given their penchant for disappearing for stretches of games, they're susceptible to being upset. By the numbers, Ohio State should beat VCU. VCU is an odd case. They may have found their legs finally after being lost without Briante Weber. I know Brian has Ohio State as a potential bracket buster but I'd be shocked if they make it to the second weekend but they should "upset" VCU.

8/9 Coin Flip: Oklahoma State vs. Oregon - I could be wrong but I think nearly every pundit has picked Oregon to win this game. I'm not saying they're wrong, the Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 7. Anyway, the coin flip says Oregon. The Ducks it is.

Midwest Region:

I'll say this, if New Mexico State beats Kansas, I'd be surprised but not shocked. Valpo is a trendy pick over Maryland which gives me pause. I'm not a Maryland honk but when you see the national media falling over themselves to pick against them... Anyway, KenPom gives Valpo a 39% chance of pulling the upset. Either way, the numbers say it profiles as 1-game possession. That's pretty close for a 4-13 match up.

Buffalo and Texas are trendy upset picks, too. Is Juwan Staten healthy? If so, I think they advance. Buffalo does have a Milwaukee connection with Germantown Frosh. Lamonte Bearden. Bearden could end up having a really nice career at Buffalo. He was bit of a late bloomer. Texas is the proverbial tease. A superbly talented team capable of beating anyone. They're a very good rebounding team. So is Butler. Should be close. This region could be a bloodbath for top seeds.

8/9 Coin Flip: Cincinnati vs. Purdue - This game makes me violently ill. The coin flip says Cincinnati.

South Region:

Eastern Washington has been picked by everyone to beat Georgetown. Good, I'll take the Hoyas then. I'm much more bullish on Stephan F. Austin beating Utah. I like what Utah has done this year but I like the Lumberjacks better in one game.

UCLA is the team no one wants in. Probably means they win a game.

Think this region pretty much holds to form by seeding and no coin flip, I'm flat out picking San Diego State over St. John's.