Brian and I bantered back and forth on the tweeter today about this year's Kentucky team as compared to the 2010 Kansas Jayhawks team. Brian postulated what Northern Iowa like team could upset Kentucky as an 8/9. My immediate thought was this Kentucky team is too good defensively for that to happen. Well, could it?
The easy answer is, yes, of course. Some team could make 20 3-pointers against them and beat them. It's highly unlikely and I'll show you why.
As of today, that Kansas team rated slightly higher on offensive efficiency (119.2 for KU vs. 118.6 for UK). This Kentucky team is far ahead of them defensively (89.7 for KU, 84.9 for UK). If the season ended today, Kentucky's final Adjusted Defensive ranking would be the best for any year going back to 2010. They're an elite defense. yes, Virginia actually surpasses them but the difference is an eyelash at the moment.
The Jayhawks were a better shooting team, with an effective fg% of 55.1% versus Kentucky's 51.3%. The bulk of that difference comes from beyond the arc where that Kansas team hit 40.7% to Kentucky's 34% which is slightly below average. Kentucky turns it over less, gets to the line more and is a better offensive rebounding team (They're 5th in the nation). Kansas wasn't bad in any of those categories, Kentucky is simply better.
On the defensive end, this Kentucky team is far superior. And it wasn't like Kansas was a slouch, but like I stated earlier, this UK team is "off the charts". Opponents effective fg% against UK is 39.5%, KU was 43.2% (That was still 4th best). Kentucky fouls less, creates more turnovers and both teams were similar on the defensive glass though Kentucky ranks far lower. UK has a defensive rebounding % of 31.8%, Kansas had 31.3%. Kentucky blocks more shots and more importantly, defend the 3 point line much better. Kansas had a make % against of 33.1%, Kentucky is only 27.2%
Kentucky also gets far more bench production, keeping them fresher. Kentucky is 20th in bench minutes, Kansas was 182nd. Kentucky's biggest asset is their length. They are taller and longer than everybody. They're also physically bigger with their bodies. Kansas rim protector was Cole Aldrich. Nice player but hardly the presence Cauley-Stein or Towns are. Oh, yeah. Don't forget Dakari Johnson. This is a more intimidating team.
Kentucky isn't infallible. I still think the 2012 team was better, largely because it had Anthony Davis on it. That said, it'll take a pretty strong effort to beat them. Between the depth, defense and length, I can't see a 8/9 or 4/5 beating them. But that's why they play the games. I'm willing to bet I was pretty damn confident Kansas wouldn't lose to Northern Iowa. Farokhmanesh happens
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