Sweet 16: Thursday Edition

MIDWEST REGION

Wichita State vs. Notre Dame- This is basically a pick 'em game in KenPom. Wichita State is 9th and Notre Dame is 10th. The Irish are more dynamic on the offensive side of the ball while Wichita State is a better defensive team. Wichita ranks, 16th in AdjustedO and 13th in AdjustedD, while the Irish are 3rd and 103rd respectively. The Irish are the best 2pt shooting team in the nation, making 58%. Wichita State is the 9th best at defending the 2. They hold teams to 42.1%, which is 9th best. While the Irish aren't great from 3, the Shockers are worst at defending the 3. If Notre Dame gets hot, it shouldn't be a Wichita State is a much better rebounding team on both sides of the ball. If the Irish aren't hitting shots, they won't likely get many second chances while Wichita State may create longer possessions for themselves. I've been touting the Irish as overrated all year. I'll stick with that but if they're making from deep, they'll win. The Pick: Wichita State 65 Notre Dame 63

West Virginia vs. Kentucky- West Virginia is an interesting match up for the Wildcats. They press on misses and makes, so even if Kentucky is forcing misses, which they will because WVU is a bad shooting team, the Mountaineers will apply pressure. I saw some pundits pontificate about Kentucky being loose with the ball. Okay, the numbers disagree completely. They have the 16th best turnover % on offense this year. They protect the ball. West Virginia is a great rebounding team and they'll need to be on defense. Kentucky matches them on the offensive glass. If the Mountaineers had a couple of dead eye shooters, I'd give them a chance. Unfortunately, they don't. Think they can keep it close for awhile but Kentucky's depth won't be fazed by the pressure. KenPom has the Wildcats as significant favorites and I see the same. The Pick: Kentucky 74 West Virginia 58

WEST REGION

Wisconsin vs. North Carolina- The Tar Heels average 10 more possessions per game than Wisconsin. I actually think if the game is played at that tempo, it favors Wisconsin who is a better team. If Kennedy Meeks were playing, I'd be tempted to pick UNC but without him, I thinks it unlikely. Wisconsin should be more aggressive and try and get to the line and get the bigs of Carolina into foul trouble but that hasn't been a Wisconsin strength this year. Carolina is a strong offensive rebounding team and Wisconsin is a strong defensive rebounding team. If Carolina can win that battle, they have a chance but Meeks is their best rebounder. The Badgers don't defend the 3 very well. If Carolina can get hot there, they can scare Wisconsin. That said, I think too much has to go right for North Carolina to win. The Pick: Wisconsin 77 North Carolina 71

Xavier vs. Arizona-Credit to Xavier for making their 5th Sweet 16 in 8 years but the season ends here. I stand firm in my assertion Arizona is the 2nd best team in the land and a better team than last year. It'll take a herculean effort by the Musketeers or a complete no-show by Arizona. The Pick: Arizona 70 Xavier 60