Underrated/Overrated

Based on Brian's latest bracket, I took his Top 20 (seed lines 1-5) and compared it to the KenPom Top 20. I was curious to see where the differences would be. They weren't that dramatic.

1-Seeds

KenPom would have Arizona as 1-seed over Duke. They'd swap spots on Brian's bracket and I think that happens anyway.

2-Seeds

Brian has Kansas as a 2-seed and in KenPom, they're 12th. KenPom is closer to where they belong but based on RPI and their schedule, they've earned that 2-seed. They're a weird team to predict come March. Utah is still in the KenPom Top 8 but in seeding, they're slipping and deservedly so.

3-Seeds

Part of why this idea came to me was because I knew Maryland will be over seeded. They're 34th in KenPom which puts them squarely on the 8-9 line where I'd place them. That's not how it works, obviously but I'd have little faith in them. On the numbers, Notre Dame would be on the 5-line and I suspect that's how they'll perform. Baylor has had a real nice season. Getting and earning a 3-seed? Kudos to Scott Drew and staff.

4-Seeds

Wichita is a seed higher in KP, Iowa State a seed lower. Iowa State will be a fascinating team. Let's see how they play out over the next 2 weeks. KP would have Ohio State on the 4 line. They haven't earned it based on performance. They'll be a deserving look if they fall on the 6 or 7 line as a team to sneak into the Sweet 16.

5-Seeds

Based on KenPom, Arkansas and West Virginia are too high. The Mountianeers are a seed too high and Arkansas has played more like an 8 or 9. I think if they stay here, they'd be a team a 12 seed would like to see. UNC & Louisville are 4's in KenPom but both teams are sketchy to me. As either a 4 or 5, they're ripe to be upset.

Others

Besides Ohio State, KenPom has Butler (19) and Michigan State (20) in the top 20. Butler is a 6 in Brian's bracket and I suspect they get a 5 before it's all said and done. Sparty is a 9 and that's what they deserve. I haven't looked closer at why they do so well at KP, but their inconsistencies on the court are too hard to overlook. I have them as a 1st round loser wherever they land.

Brackets aren't built on efficiency models. But it is interesting how close both are right now. There's a few outliers but at the end of the day, the committee will get it right.