Sweet 16 Preview

SOUTH

Villanova vs. Miami, FL: Nova rates as a 3-pt favorite over at KenPom. The last time Miami made the Sweet 16, Marquette shot them out of the building. It's entirely possible Nova can do the same. They've looked damn good through two rounds. Miami has had a few big losses and Angel Rodriguez, brilliant at times, can be shaky with the ball. Villanova got the second weekend monkey off the back. Are they satisfied with just that? I don't think so.

Pick: Villanova 75 Miami 67

Kansas vs. Maryland: Maryland was shaky for 30 minutes against Hawaii before pulling away comfortably despite horrific 3-pt shooting. They can't afford that against Kansas. The Jayhawks cruised past UConn. They're a pretty healthy 6-point favorite at KenPom. KU has won close games this year while Maryland has lost them. History makes me leery of picking Kansas but Maryland has underachieved all year. 

Pick: Kansas 71 Maryland 66

WEST

Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M: The Aggies are basically playing with house money after stealing a win from UNI. Oklahoma has been steady if not spectacular over the last month. The fear is they don't make jumpers. Buddy Hield willed them past VCU with one big basket after another. A&M has the weakest KenPom number between the two, 33rd in offense. Oklahoma could falter if they're cold from 3 and need interior scoring. That'll be the story the rest of the way. Don't think it's A&M that stops them, though. Sooners are a modest 1-pt favorite at KenPom.

Pick: Oklahoma 73 Texas A&M 69

Duke vs. Oregon

I told Brian before the tournament started, I thought Duke had a path to the Final 4. They're not a Final 4 team on paper, but there was a chance because their isn't a squad in the region that is overwhelmingly better. The Ducks are given 55% probability (1-pt) on KenPom to beat the Blue Devils. Both teams have dynamic offenses. Oregon has the 43rd best defense compared to Duke being 109. That's a big gulf. Despite that, Duke should be able to score. Can they match Oregon? Both teams are evenly matched on the glass. Oregon turns teams over. Duke doesn't turn it over. That could be a deciding factor. If Chris Boucher has a big game, the Ducks win. This could be a great game with a lot of offense.

Pick: Duke 83 Oregon 81