North Carolina- Zero luck involved. As a 1-seed, the Sweet 16 is expected.
Virginia- Again, they were a 1-seed.
Miami- Now we get to where things are a bit murkier. The argument against Miami is, they got an 11-seed in the round of 32 instead of the 6. By seeding, Miami should be a Sweet 16 team anyway. And the 11 they beat was historically a great 11 seed in Wichita State. In fact, if we use KenPom, Wichita was the favorite. This is an earned trip.
Duke- The Blue Devils path was made easier by getting Yale instead of Baylor. A game against Baylor basically would have been a coin flip. Yale was 38th in KenPom and Duke was 22nd. The difference wasn't that large but was large enough that Duke's path was easier.
Notre Dame- The Irish won two hard fought games to get to the Sweet 16. Of course, they played a 14-seed in the round of 32 but that 14-seed stood above them in KenPom and was basically a pick 'em in Vegas. Sure, could West Virginia have been a tougher matchup? Definitely, but as we saw yesterday, SFA belonged on that court and would have been a worthy Sweet 16 team.
Syracuse- Syracuse was a borderline NCAA team that got this Sweet 16 bid playing an over seeded Dayton squad and a 15-seed. Dayton was 54th in KenPom before the tournament began and Cuse was 41. They definitely got lucky. They shouldn't apologize, though. They have a talented squad but they're the weakest team left.
The ACC road obviously gets harder going forward. Notre Dame will be a slight underdog to Wisconsin. Miami will be to Villanova. Syracuse will be to Gonzaga. Duke will be to Oregon. I suspect one of those will get a "W" but 3 will lose.
UNC and Virginia will be tested but are favorites. My initial reaction is, both have good matchups.
The ACC was the 1st or 2nd best conference this year. They have two legit title contenders left along with the Big 12. Did they have some help getting 6 teams into the Sweet 16? Yup, but that's March.
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