Virginia vs. Iowa State: Virginia is a 5-pt fave on KenPom with a 70% win probability. Iowa State likes to play fast, with 71 possessions per game. Virginia is the slowest team in college hoops. I have my doubts Iowa State can speed them up. Butler forced a lot of turnovers from the Cavaliers which is unlike them. Virginia answered by making everything. Butler simply couldn't stop them. Iowa State is slightly better than Butler on defense and has more athletes to guard. I don't think it'll matter. Cyclones need Jameel McKay to dominate inside and Virginia to miss a lot of shots. I just don't see it.
Pick: Virginia 68 Iowa State 61
Gonzaga vs. Syracuse: The Zags are 2-pt favorites on KenPom. Early in the season, guard play was an issue for Gonzaga. The guards have played a lot better in the last month. They'll need to against the Syracuse zone. The Zags will have the best player on the court and who some consider the best left in Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis strikes me as a great zone buster. The Orange caught a break with an overrated Dayton team and getting Middle Tennessee, so I'm not sure what to make of their performance. They'll win if the Zags guards are non-factors. I'm betting they play well enough.
Pick: Gonzaga 65 Syracuse 62
EAST
Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame: By KenPom, these are the two worst teams left. UW is 31st, Notre Dame 36th. UW is a slight 1-pt favorite in what's basically a toss-up. Notre Dame is 172nd in defensive efficiency, UW is 88th in offensive efficiency. The worst defensive team to make a Final 4 in the KenPom era was Marquette in 2003 (119th). The worst offensive team to make the Final 4 was Louisville in 2013 (116th). Notre Dame is 7th in offense, UW is 12th in defense. I bet this is a blowout. I just don't know which way. Notre Dame has been blasted in some losses. UW has the ability to miss a lot of shots. Notre Dame is not afraid to play slow and won't be bothered by a low possession game.
Pick: Wisconsin 69 Notre Dame 53
North Carolina vs. Indiana: Carolina's defense has been very good lately. Indiana's has had its moments but hasn't been good enough. Carolina lead the ACC in effective fg% defense, IU was 8th in the Big 14. Probably a close game but Carolina pulls away late. Edit: I had a hot fact in here that was way wrong. Wisconsin beat UNC & Kentucky in the same tournament just one year ago
Pick: North Carolina 80 Indiana 75
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