Saturday, March 19, 2016

Lotsa Thoughts From Day Two

1. There's a lot of debate about whether the Middle Tennessee State upset of Michigan State is the greatest opening round upset ever. Nate Silver of 538 says by the numbers it's the 3rd greatest upset but agrees with me that Sparty was the most talented to lose


Norfolk State over Mizzou and Coppin State over South Carolina rate higher in improbability. A case can be made Middle Tennessee is a good 15-seed. But a case can be made Michigan State should have been a 1-seed.

Given the lay of the land, this was arguably Izzo's best chance at getting that elusive second national championship. His 2012 team was superior on the court but that team which lost to Louisville in the Sweet 16 would have to have navigated Florida, Kentucky and Kansas. That Kentucky team was pretty good. There is no equivalent this year or one really close. This one will hurt for a long time.

Sparty never lead in the game and that is remarkable to me. I wasn't sold on them through January but started buying in come February. Yesterday's loss was staggering.

2. On the other end of the spectrum is UNI and Paul Jesperson. The Merrill, WI native will forever live in tournament history with Bryce Drew, etc. That's why we love this thing. Also as incredible as the buzzer beater was Texas giving up 44 points in a half to UNI. That's near impossible.

3. Flipping the spectrum again is Ovtavius Ellis of Cinicnnati who was a fingertip away from a buzzer beater of his own. All within minutes of the Jesperson shot. I like to bash Cincinnati but they played a great game. Someone had to lose.

4. Earlier in the day, Iowa won at the buzzer on an airball putback by Adam Woodbury. Woodbury may have pushed off but the Temple defender was out of position. Iowa still looks like a shell of the team they were a month and a half ago.

5. Hawaii's win over California comes with an injury caveat but super frosh Jaylen Brown didn't have his best day. Draft Express made a good point though, he was on a team without great shooters and poor spacing. Don't let what happened fool you. Kid is a baller.

6. Jon Solomon of CBS had this nugget yesterday about RPI. The Pac-12 had 7 top-51 RPI teams. They're 2-5 in the tournament. Give mid-majors a chance on a neutral court against top-50 RPI and look what happens. Bet the committee takes notice. /wanking motion

7. In my money brackets, I picked West Virginia to lose to Stephen F. Austin. I'd brag but I also had Purdue against Sparty in a regional final. But I did tell you I liked them as potential Sweet 16 sleeper and they were my favorite bracket buster. They have a chance (KenPom) to beat Notre Dame and are favored by 2 with a 58% chance to win. The one thing the Irish don't do that West Virginia did in spades is turn it over. 

8. Finally, remember those last two Wisconsin teams that went to the Final 4? Good, because those days are over. Yesterday's trash game against Pittsburgh was incredible as they averaged .87ppp.  Bravo, Wisconsin.  America loathes you again.

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