Jump Shooting Will Be Your Demise

A popular theme has emerged in regards to Oklahoma and its Achilles heel. They're a jump shooting team one cold night away from elimination in March. I don't disagree with this necessarily. They have two solid posts players who far too often lack touches or disappear but that's another topic.

Here is Oklahoma by the numbers. The first number is the overall season number and the second is their conference only numbers:

Effective Fg%: 54.4/52.8

FTA/FGA: 32.5/30.6

3 point shooting %: 42.8/40.6

2 point shooting %: 47.7%/46.4%

3 pointers attempted/FGA: 40.5/43.9

% points from 3: 39.3/41.9

% points from 2: 42.9/40.7

% points from FT: 17.8/17.5

Oklahoma has slipped in conference play and not surprisingly. The conference is arguably the best top to bottom.

Now, on the other spectrum we have a team slowly emerging as the popular favorite in Michigan State. Michigan State is about to put together the best 3 point conference shooting season percentage in history. Aren't they one cold night from elimination, too?  Let's look:

Effective FG%: 56/55.7

FTA/FGA: 30.6/26.3

3 point shooting %: 43.7/46.4

2 point shooting %: 50.7/48.1

3PA/FGA: 35.4/35

% points from 3: 34.6/37.4

% points from 2: 49/48

% points from FT: 16.4/13

Sparty has won 9 of 10 after a 3-4 start in league play due to injury and spotty play. The Big 14 is a good league but there's a lot of bad basketball in the league. 

Senior Bryn Forbes will be arguably the best shooter entering the tournament and Denzel Valentine also shoots 44% from 3. Still, can they win if shots aren't falling? They're the best offensive team in KenPom right now so one would think so  but if they have that night where the shots aren't falling, like Oklahoma, they're very beatable.

For what it's worth, the game has evolved to where smart teams prefer the 3 over the 2 and both these teams have embraced that. The one equalizer in the college game is the single elimination format.