Marquette: A Look Back

Year two of the Wojo era has come and gone. Marquette finished the year 20-13 and 8-10 in the Big East. A borderline NCAA time in my mind entering the season, the Golden Eagles were done in by losses at home to DePaul, Creighton & Belmont. A lousy non-conference schedule left them little room for error. Any chance at a NIT bid were done in by upsets in mid-major conferences. 

Marquette finished 97th in KenPom, 107th in offense and 93rd in defense. Marquette was one of the worst rebounding teams on both sides of the court. On offense, they were one of the worst at protecting the ball. There is a lot of room for growth. 

Freshmen

Sacar Anim - The Minnesota Player of the Year saw little playing time. Hard to say what they have with him. 

Matt Heldt- Wojo's first commit in the class got hurt late after seeing a little more playing time as Big East play went on. Heldt mostly saw time when Fischer got into foul trouble and Ellenson needed a blow. Needed to get stronger and looks a lot different than he did when he arrived on campus. May take another year but has a chance to be a solid upper class men. With Ellenson's likely departure, might be in line for a big bump in playing time next season.

Traci Carter - Carter was thrown into the fire as a starter. By the end of the year, he was coming off the bench but seeing a lot of minutes. Carter was 45th in assist rate this season nationally. He was also 74th in steal rate. Carter's problem was turnover rate, 29.1% and getting in foul trouble. He'll have to improve his 3% shooting. I think the positives outweighed the negatives given his youth. Asked to do a lot early, it should bode well for his growth. 

Haanif Cheatham - By the end of the year, Cheatham showed glimpses of being the type of player that becomes the face of a program. He saw a lot of playing time and finished with an effective fg% of 54.3. Cheatham was good at getting to the free throw line and showed the ability to become a good 3-point shooter. Needs to add a mid-range game. Had a turnover problem as well. If he can be more efficient in that regard, he could be All Big East type player.

Henry Ellenson- Lived up to the hype and then some. Some will call it a wasted year for him and the program. Perhaps it was. Given the team and coaching staff inexperience, he was probably "wasted". That said, he was still an important get for the staff to establish itself. The hope is the staff experience with a player of his caliber makes them better going forward. Won't hurt them if he's a lottery pick.

Sophomores

Sandy Cohen - Cohen started the year well and was a defensive star in their win in Madison. Once Big East play started, he completely disappeared. He was lost on defense and his shot broken. His role going forward is uncertain. Also had a turnover rate of 20%.

Duane Wilson- Thought Duane could break out this year. Instead, he was erratic all year. Brilliant one game, he would be borderline unplayable the next. Took 156 3-pointers and shot 35%. Bad Duane bogged down the offense. Good Duane attacked the hoop and gave them a threat from outside. Too much of the former, not enough of the latter. Team needs good Duane in 2017.

Juniors

Wally Ellenson- Did Wally get recruited to help bring in Henry? Probably, at least partly. His role likely doesn't differ much next year. Occasional minutes with a hope of some high energy. 

Luke Fischer- The optimist hopes an off-season without any injury issues lets him develop his game further. The pessimist worries he is what he is. A silly-foul prone big with streaks of brilliance and streaks of invisibility. Luke is an effective around the hoop offensive player. He finished with an effective fg% of 60.8%, 48th.  He was 59th in offensive rebounding% but has to get stronger on the defensive glass where he averaged less boards than on offense. That's not good. Cohen actually was a better defensive rebounder. Fischer would get into foul trouble far too often and far too often they were soft and silly fouls. If he doesn't get that cleaned up as a senior, it could be a long season. He'll need to stay on the court and be productive. Next to Cohen, he was the most disappointing player this year. Skills are there. Can he develop them? Can the staff help him reach them? Think we learn a lot about him and the staff based on how his senior year is. Given the reaction to his game winning free throws against Georgetown, there's little doubt the staff loves the kid and want him to each that potential. A good senior season possibly gets him drafted.

Jajuan Johnson- Johnson seemed to be coming into his own as the season progressed. A former top-50 recruit, he flashed those moments a lot more this season. His shooting improved and started making steals on defense, 38th in steal %. Still disappears on defense to the consternation of the staff. Also fails to get back on occasion. If he cleans that up, he could have a special senior season. Like the rest of the team, needs to clean up turnovers. Scored double digits in 9 of his last 12 games. 

Arriving: Sam Hauser, FR, Wisconsin State Player of the Year, good shooter compared by Wojo to Kris Jenkins; Andrew Rowsey, SG transferred from UNC-Asheville, good 3-point shooter.

One spot available, two if HE leaves. 

Quick thought on the Virginia collapse

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA *catches breathe*

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAhahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Take that ass offense home 

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Program Building and Patience

In 2009, Villanova in their 8th season under Jay Wright made the Final Four over then Big East brethren Pitt in a classic game. In his 1st 3 seasons, Wright and the Wildcats made the NIT before finding their stride that culminated in that Final 4.

Following their trip to the Final 4 in 2009, the Wildcats tied for 2nd in the Big East and were a 2-seed that was ultimately upset by the 10-seed St. Mary's. They made the tournament in 2011 where they lost to George Mason. The bottom dropped out for Villanova in 2012 when they went 13-19.

Giving the trend, it might have been easy for the program to panic. Instead, they began to reload. In 2013, they were back in the tournament as a 9-seed. They would lose in the opening round to North Carolina but were back on track.

2014 was a brave new world for Villanova and the Big East. Football expansion and ESPN meddling brought the new Big East to us. Nova responded by becoming the flagship program by winning 3 consecutive regular season titles. Unfortunately for them, in '14 &15, their seasons were cut short in the round of 32. UConn, the eventual champion got them in 2014 and NC State would get them in 2015.

Matchups matter in March. Some are better than others and Villanova had two bad ones in back-to-back seasons. It was simpler to call them pretenders. Well, those pretenders rolled through their first 3 opponents with brilliant offensive performances. And when the offense faltered in the regional final against Kansas, a brilliant defensive game plan that smothered Perry Ellis carried the day.

In the end, Jay Wright had them back in their second Final Four of his tenure and fifth overall. Small minded journalists like Tom Oates slung their arrows and ended up looking like the boobs they are.

In Norman, Sooner fans are celebrating a Final 4 appearance for the 1st time since 2002. After Kelvin Sampson left for the Indiana job, they hired Jeff Capel from VCU. Capel would get them to an Elite 8 behind Blake Griffin in 2009. Despite lofty projections going forward, the bottom dropped out for the Sooners. A recruiting scandal mixed with poor play on the court forced Capel out and ushered in Lon Kruger.

Kruger had success everywhere he went except the NBA. He took Kansas State to an Elite 8, Florida to a Final 4, laid the groundwork for Illinois success under Bill Self & Bruce Weber and took UNLV to a Sweet 16.

At Oklahoma, starting over largely from scratch, his first year ended in a losing record. The Sooners bounced back making the NCAA Tournament in 2013, losing as a 10-seed to San Diego State. 

In 2014, they were upset by North Dakota State in a 12-5 matchup. The progress was evident, though as they had finished 2nd in the Big XII. They finished 2nd a year ago as well and made the Sweet 16 before losing to Michigan State.

A trendy pick to end Kansas reign in the Big XII, they finished tied for second instead but were still one of the nation's best teams. Lead by the incomparable Buddy Hield, Lon Kruger had returned Oklahoma to a Final 4 after inheriting a mess.

Of course, I called it on January 12 of 2013 that Kruger would do just that. Don't ask about the same prediction I made about John Groce at Illinois.

What all of this reinforces is, coaches need time and sometimes, a reboot during a tenure at a school. In a day and age of instant gratification, good things can still come to those who have the vision and patience for the building and rebuilding pains. Not everyone can reload like Duke, Carolina, Kansas or Kentucky. But you can still find success like Oklahoma and Villanova. Pay heed, Marquette fan.

Sunday Elite 8

MIDWEST: Virginia vs. Syracuse

In three tournament games, Virginia has scored 81, 77 & 84 points and have been terrifying. They also had the benefit of playing some pretty weak defensive teams. Syracuse enters the game 19th in defensive efficiency and allowing opponents to shoot only 30.6% from 3. They have a chance. Because of the zone, they're a terrible a terrible rebounding team and Mike Tobey of Virginina has been feasting on put backs. Syracuse can't let that happen. Virginia hasn't been as crisp on defense in the last two games but haven't needed to be. Again, Syracuse has got to take advantage of this. I'm trying to to lay out a scenario where Syracuse wins this game but too much has to break their way. They've had a lot break their way already in this tournament. Don't see it happening again.

Pick: Virginia 61 Syracuse 50

EAST: Notre Dame vs. North Carolina

North Carolina thumped Notre Dame by 31in the ACC Tournament a few weeks back. The Tar Heels defense has been pretty stout for the last month. They gave up 86 against Indiana but were never challenged. They made a bunch of 3's they typically miss, too that helped create distance. Notre Dame will have to play far better than they did Friday night. Playing like that against North Carolina will result in another 30 point thumping. Can they match the effort they put against Kentucky in a regional final last year? They're just not as good as that squad or deep enough. And the defense simply isn't capable to stop Carolina.

Pick: North Carolina 76 Notre Dame 61

RIP Parity

The overriding theme entering the tournament was how wide open it was. Seth Davis penned "The Earth is Flat" everytime there was an upset. Well, we've reached the elite 8 and the truth is, there are some really good teams this year and they've proved it.

There isn't a transcendent team this year but if we look at KenPom, Notre Dame and Syracuse are the only outliers. The other 6 are all top 8 KenPom teams. We're going to have a great Final 4. Yes, I'm assuming Virginia and North Carolina advance.

Take out the ND-UW & Zags-Cuse games, the top seeds have rolled. While it wasn't "exciting" because they weren't close, it was still really good basketball. The closest games, ND-UW, Zags-Cuse were also the sloppiest games. Wisconsin-Notre Dame was awfully brutal. 

What the Sweet 16 lacked in memorable moments, it made up for with the best teams rolling on setting up a potentially great Final 4. Parity? Five teams had top 20 offense and defenses and all 5 stand tall in the Elite 8. The world is round.

Elite 8 Saturday

WEST: Oregon vs. Oklahoma

A toss-up according to KenPom (Sooners by 1, 53% win probability), we should have an opportunity for a classic. Oklahoma is a top-20 efficiency team on both sides of the ball while Oregon is 35th in defense

Initial blush favors Oklahoma to me as well. And they have the best player in Buddy Hield. The year has meandered toward this moment for Hield. I can't believe his season doesn't end in a trip to Houston.

Pick: Oklahoma 73 Oregon 70

SOUTH: Kansas vs. Villanova

This is what a regional final should look like. Villanova coming off an offensive clinic, Kansas off a defensive clinic. Both are top-10 in efficiency. While Miami rained 3's in the 1st half, Villanova answered each run and tightened the screws in the 2nd half. Kansas survived scoring droughts behind great defense and some self-inflicted Maryland errors. Hard to see Villanova making the same mistakes and not taking advantage of any Kansas droughts. Villanova also can't play as well on offense. They were damn near perfect Thursday night. Unlikely that happens again as well. This could be the game of the tournament. I picked KU at the start of the year and that's why I stick with them.

Pick: Kansas 71 Villanova 70

Random Thoughts, Sweet 16 Part 1

After the opening weekend, I usually want to see the best teams advance. The games are better. Last night, the best teams advanced in impressive fashion.

- Villanova put on a show on offense. In the 2nd slowest tempo game of the tournament, the Wildcats averaged 1.57ppp. That's insane. Also reiterates what I've been saying about this team. Slow, fast, offense, defense...doesn't matter. 

- On the other end, Kansas out on a defensive clinic against Maryland. KU went a few stretches where their offense stagnated giving the Terps all kinds of opportunities to put pressure on them. Missed free throws, solid KU rebounding and relentless defense never let it happen. Perry Ellis might not be the most talented player but he was the best player on the court last night. 

- The Terps were one of the seasons major disappointments. Yes, they made a Sweet 16 but this was a team built to contend for a title. After the Big 14 season started, they never looked the part. I have my doubts Mark Turgeon is the type of coach to take them to the next level.

- Oklahoma cruised past Texas A&M who after an early flurry never looked like they belonged. Buddy Hield had a middling night and the Sooners never broke a sweat in the 2nd half. Best game in awhile for them.

- Oregon was too much for a porous Duke defense. I expected this was the way Duke would go out. Oregon was more athletic, quicker and just better. 

- Defensing Grayson Allen is getting damn near impossible. Coach K was pissy in his post-game presser about a late 3 from Dillon Brooks. Allen refused to engage Brooks in the post-game pleasantries. It's all of a bunch of silliness but it isn't a good look for Coach K or Allen. Saying that, Duke will be my early #1 for 2017. Then America can get back to hating them for winning a lot.

Sweet 16 Friday Preview

MIDWEST

Virginia vs. Iowa State: Virginia is a 5-pt fave on KenPom with a 70% win probability. Iowa State likes to play fast, with 71 possessions per game. Virginia is the slowest team in college hoops. I have my doubts Iowa State can speed them up. Butler forced a lot of turnovers from the Cavaliers which is unlike them. Virginia answered by making everything. Butler simply couldn't stop them. Iowa State is slightly better than Butler on defense and has more athletes to guard. I don't think it'll matter. Cyclones need Jameel McKay to dominate inside and Virginia to miss a lot of shots. I just don't see it.

Pick: Virginia 68 Iowa State 61

Gonzaga vs. Syracuse: The Zags are 2-pt favorites on KenPom. Early in the season, guard play was an issue for Gonzaga. The guards have played a lot better in the last month. They'll need to against the Syracuse zone. The Zags will have the best player on the court and who some consider the best left in Domantas Sabonis. Sabonis strikes me as a great zone buster. The Orange caught a break with an overrated Dayton team and getting Middle Tennessee, so I'm not sure what to make of their performance. They'll win if the Zags guards are non-factors. I'm betting they play well enough.

Pick: Gonzaga 65 Syracuse 62

EAST

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame: By KenPom, these are the two worst teams left. UW is 31st, Notre Dame 36th. UW is a slight 1-pt favorite in what's basically a toss-up. Notre Dame is 172nd in defensive efficiency, UW is 88th in offensive efficiency. The worst defensive team to make a Final 4 in the KenPom era was Marquette in 2003 (119th). The worst offensive team to make the Final 4 was Louisville in 2013 (116th). Notre Dame is 7th in offense, UW is 12th in defense. I bet this is a blowout. I just don't know which way. Notre Dame has been blasted in some losses. UW has the ability to miss a lot of shots. Notre Dame is not afraid to play slow and won't be bothered by a low possession game.

Pick: Wisconsin 69 Notre Dame 53

North Carolina vs. Indiana: Carolina's defense has been very good lately. Indiana's has had its moments but hasn't been good enough. Carolina lead the ACC in effective fg% defense, IU was 8th in the Big 14. Probably a close game but Carolina pulls away late. Edit: I had a hot fact in here that was way wrong. Wisconsin beat UNC & Kentucky in the same tournament just one year ago

Pick: North Carolina 80 Indiana 75

My Preview Is Not Different

Well, I came out here to write my preview of tonight's games and they are basically the same as Kurly's.
I have all the same winners and not much of a difference in write ups.
The only thing that scares me a bit is how Texas A&M responds to their comeback over Northern Iowa.  Was that all their firepower and will they run out of energy or will it be spark that leads them over Oklahoma?  Also, can Buddy Hield continue to carry a team on his back game, after game, after game?  There is so little room for error if he "only" scores 19!

Other than that enjoy the games tonight because tomorrow you have to watch Wisconsin and Virginia both try and play basketball.

Sweet 16 Preview

SOUTH

Villanova vs. Miami, FL: Nova rates as a 3-pt favorite over at KenPom. The last time Miami made the Sweet 16, Marquette shot them out of the building. It's entirely possible Nova can do the same. They've looked damn good through two rounds. Miami has had a few big losses and Angel Rodriguez, brilliant at times, can be shaky with the ball. Villanova got the second weekend monkey off the back. Are they satisfied with just that? I don't think so.

Pick: Villanova 75 Miami 67

Kansas vs. Maryland: Maryland was shaky for 30 minutes against Hawaii before pulling away comfortably despite horrific 3-pt shooting. They can't afford that against Kansas. The Jayhawks cruised past UConn. They're a pretty healthy 6-point favorite at KenPom. KU has won close games this year while Maryland has lost them. History makes me leery of picking Kansas but Maryland has underachieved all year. 

Pick: Kansas 71 Maryland 66

WEST

Oklahoma vs. Texas A&M: The Aggies are basically playing with house money after stealing a win from UNI. Oklahoma has been steady if not spectacular over the last month. The fear is they don't make jumpers. Buddy Hield willed them past VCU with one big basket after another. A&M has the weakest KenPom number between the two, 33rd in offense. Oklahoma could falter if they're cold from 3 and need interior scoring. That'll be the story the rest of the way. Don't think it's A&M that stops them, though. Sooners are a modest 1-pt favorite at KenPom.

Pick: Oklahoma 73 Texas A&M 69

Duke vs. Oregon

I told Brian before the tournament started, I thought Duke had a path to the Final 4. They're not a Final 4 team on paper, but there was a chance because their isn't a squad in the region that is overwhelmingly better. The Ducks are given 55% probability (1-pt) on KenPom to beat the Blue Devils. Both teams have dynamic offenses. Oregon has the 43rd best defense compared to Duke being 109. That's a big gulf. Despite that, Duke should be able to score. Can they match Oregon? Both teams are evenly matched on the glass. Oregon turns teams over. Duke doesn't turn it over. That could be a deciding factor. If Chris Boucher has a big game, the Ducks win. This could be a great game with a lot of offense.

Pick: Duke 83 Oregon 81

In Defense of the ACC

The ACC put 6 teams in the Sweet 16. The consensus seems to be, they got lucky because of upsets and seeding. This is partly true. Luck always plays a part in sports. But it isn't the whole story.

North Carolina- Zero luck involved. As a 1-seed, the Sweet 16 is expected. 

Virginia- Again, they were a 1-seed. 

Miami- Now we get to where things are a bit murkier. The argument against Miami is, they got an 11-seed in the round of 32 instead of the 6. By seeding, Miami should be a Sweet 16 team anyway. And the 11 they beat was historically a great 11 seed in Wichita State. In fact, if we use KenPom, Wichita was the favorite. This is an earned trip.

Duke- The Blue Devils path was made easier by getting Yale instead of Baylor. A game against Baylor basically would have been a coin flip. Yale was 38th in KenPom and Duke was 22nd. The difference wasn't that large but was large enough that Duke's path was easier. 

Notre Dame- The Irish won two hard fought games to get to the Sweet 16. Of course, they played a 14-seed in the round of 32 but that 14-seed stood above them in KenPom and was basically a pick 'em in Vegas. Sure, could West Virginia have been a tougher matchup? Definitely, but as we saw yesterday, SFA belonged on that court and would have been a worthy Sweet 16 team.

Syracuse- Syracuse was a borderline NCAA team that got this Sweet 16 bid playing an over seeded Dayton squad and a 15-seed. Dayton was 54th in KenPom before the tournament began and Cuse was 41. They definitely got lucky. They shouldn't apologize, though. They have a talented squad but they're the weakest team left. 

The ACC road obviously gets harder going forward. Notre Dame will be a slight underdog to Wisconsin. Miami will be to Villanova. Syracuse will be to Gonzaga. Duke will be to Oregon. I suspect one of those will get a "W" but 3 will lose.

UNC and Virginia will be tested but are favorites. My initial reaction is, both have good matchups.

The ACC was the 1st or 2nd best conference this year. They have two legit title contenders left along with the Big 12. Did they have some help getting 6 teams into the Sweet 16? Yup, but that's March.

In Defense of the Pac-12

One of the overwhelming narratives coming this week will be the disappointing showing by the Pac-12 this week. Yes, it wasn't good but it shouldn't have been unexpected. I sounded the alarm after the selection show and throughout the week. The committee grossly over seeded the teams and in one case, picked a team who was arguably the worst 7-seed in history.

Oregon - As of this, still alive and should handle St. Joe's. Entered as 9th overall in KenPom, probably not a 1-seed in expected results. Favorable potential matchup against Duke should get them to a regional final. A Final 4 berth would change the narrative for the league a tad.

Utah- Seeded 3rd in the Midwest, they entered the tournament 29th in KenPom and drew the 27th team in Gonzaga. The 'Zags were an 11-seed. Utah was over seeded and drew an incredibly tough 11-seed. They also would have been underdogs against Seton Hall. No shame losing as they were projected as a 1-win team but they way they lost adds fuel to the fire the Pac-12 was overrated.

California- Cal entered the tournament a trendy pick to make a deep run. Some had them beating Kansas in the Sweet 16. That was ridiculous before the issues with their assistant coach Yann Hufnagel resigning and losing Ty Wallace to injury. They were 21 in KenPom before the dance and would have had a pick 'me game against Maryland. Losing to Hawaii is arguably the worst loss for the league.

Arizona- By the numbers, they were the conference's 2nd best team entering the tournament 16th in KenPom. For whatever reason, they never seemed to put it all together and then had a terrible draw in Wichita State who was one of the best 11-seeds in history. At worst, this was a second round game. Like Utah though, getting blown out was unexpected and doesn't help the league image.

Oregon State- They were a 7-seed. Someone between them, USC and Colorado had to be, I suppose but they were 60th in KenPom. In their region, they should have been an 11 seed by the numbers. Any win would have been gravy.

USC- The Trojans were 49th in KenPom. They also had to travel to Raleigh to play Providence. The Friars were 46th in KenPom, so it was basically a coin flip game. That's how it played out. 

Colorado- Colorado was 55th in KenPom entering the tournament and UConn was 28th. UConn was the clear favorite.

In conclusion, the league was the underdog in 4 of their opening round games using KenPom. Couple that with Cal's issues and you have the recipe for 5 quick losses. 

The league also had bad luck in opponents. As I stated, two teams ran into 2 of the best 11 seeds in recent memory. Matchups and luck definitely played a part in the Pac-12's dismal showing.

Ultimately, perception becomes reality and the league will be mocked for their showing in 2016. Oregon can ease that with a Final Four run and they have a path.  It wasn't a great week for the league but it was still a good, competitive league in 2015-16. March isn't always fair.

Lotsa Thoughts From Day Two

1. There's a lot of debate about whether the Middle Tennessee State upset of Michigan State is the greatest opening round upset ever. Nate Silver of 538 says by the numbers it's the 3rd greatest upset but agrees with me that Sparty was the most talented to lose

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/michigan-state-and-the-biggest-ncaa-tournament-upsets-ever/

Norfolk State over Mizzou and Coppin State over South Carolina rate higher in improbability. A case can be made Middle Tennessee is a good 15-seed. But a case can be made Michigan State should have been a 1-seed.

Given the lay of the land, this was arguably Izzo's best chance at getting that elusive second national championship. His 2012 team was superior on the court but that team which lost to Louisville in the Sweet 16 would have to have navigated Florida, Kentucky and Kansas. That Kentucky team was pretty good. There is no equivalent this year or one really close. This one will hurt for a long time.

Sparty never lead in the game and that is remarkable to me. I wasn't sold on them through January but started buying in come February. Yesterday's loss was staggering.

2. On the other end of the spectrum is UNI and Paul Jesperson. The Merrill, WI native will forever live in tournament history with Bryce Drew, etc. That's why we love this thing. Also as incredible as the buzzer beater was Texas giving up 44 points in a half to UNI. That's near impossible.

3. Flipping the spectrum again is Ovtavius Ellis of Cinicnnati who was a fingertip away from a buzzer beater of his own. All within minutes of the Jesperson shot. I like to bash Cincinnati but they played a great game. Someone had to lose.

4. Earlier in the day, Iowa won at the buzzer on an airball putback by Adam Woodbury. Woodbury may have pushed off but the Temple defender was out of position. Iowa still looks like a shell of the team they were a month and a half ago.

5. Hawaii's win over California comes with an injury caveat but super frosh Jaylen Brown didn't have his best day. Draft Express made a good point though, he was on a team without great shooters and poor spacing. Don't let what happened fool you. Kid is a baller.

6. Jon Solomon of CBS had this nugget yesterday about RPI. The Pac-12 had 7 top-51 RPI teams. They're 2-5 in the tournament. Give mid-majors a chance on a neutral court against top-50 RPI and look what happens. Bet the committee takes notice. /wanking motion

7. In my money brackets, I picked West Virginia to lose to Stephen F. Austin. I'd brag but I also had Purdue against Sparty in a regional final. But I did tell you I liked them as potential Sweet 16 sleeper and they were my favorite bracket buster. They have a chance (KenPom) to beat Notre Dame and are favored by 2 with a 58% chance to win. The one thing the Irish don't do that West Virginia did in spades is turn it over. 

8. Finally, remember those last two Wisconsin teams that went to the Final 4? Good, because those days are over. Yesterday's trash game against Pittsburgh was incredible as they averaged .87ppp.  Bravo, Wisconsin.  America loathes you again.

Random Thoughts From Day One

1. Disappointing end to the season for Arizona who were outplayed, outclassed and out hustled. 

2. Wasn't a good day for the Pac-12 in general. The older you get, the smarter you like to think you get. This is not a referendum on the league but rather the committee who overvalued the league. 

3. Gonzaga and Wichita State played up to their capabilities. Neither team is truly an 11-seed in talent. 

4. Most happy for Providence coach Ed Cooley who has done a great job there. It wasn't an artistic effort and if they play like they did yesterday against UNC, they'll get hammered. Still, glad they got the monkey off the back.

5. Purdue's Matt Painter should walk back to campus. He committed coaching malpractice in their loss to UALR.

6. Indiana looked fantastic. Kentucky doesn't have a great defense. Just saying.

7. Speaking of defense, Duke doesn't have one. When they lose, it could be ugly. 

8. North Carolina is super talented but they'll lose because they lose focus. I never thought they'd actually lose yesterday to FGCU but they showed what scares people about them.

Enjoy the games 

Time for Picks Sure to Embarrass

East

Chattanooga beats Indiana, SFA scares West Virginia. Xavier and Carolina meet for a trip to the Final 4. Carolina wins.

East Champ: North Carolina

Midwest

I'd love to pick Virginia to lose to Hampton or Butler but they won't. They will lose in the Sweet 16 to Purdue. That's if the Boilers get past UALR. Think that could be a battle. Seton Hall got the shaft being sent to Denver and altitude to take on Gonzaga. Might be the best game of the opening rounds. If Seton Hall wins, they make the Sweet 16. They'll beat Utah or Fresno State who has a punchers chance in the 14-3 game. Don't be shocked if Iona beats Iowa State. 

Ultimately, Michigan State beats Purdue to make the Final 4 and the press will ignore the Title IX battle in East Lansing.

Midwest Champ: Michigan State

In a very unfortunate occurrence, I drew Virginia in a spread pool. I assume they'll be favored through a regional final so I'm quietly pulling for them because I'm a hypocrite who likes degenerate winnings. 

West

I'm torn on Oregon. I believe St. Joe's beats Cincinnati because they'll have the best player on the court in Deandre Bembry. Remember when Khalif Wyatt almost willed Temple over 1-seed Indiana in 2013? St. Joe's has that vibe. Can see the 10, 11, 12 & 13 seeds all winning. FWIW, all money brackets I'm in, that's what I picked. There's been a lot of A&M love lately from this region but I don't see it. This is the Sooners region to lose.

West Champ: Oklahoma

South 

Can the 13, 12 & 11 win openers? Yup, wouldn't surprise me at all. Cal has some issues and have struggled outside the Bay, Maryland is a fraud and Wichita State is actually favored in KenPom over Arizona. My guess is, one happens but I can see early chaos. Kansas and Villanova are two teams with top 20 offensive and defensive KenPom teams. UNC, Virginia & Michigan State are the other 3. 2 are certain to be out by Houston. 

South Champ: Kansas

I picked Kansas at the start of the year and might as well stick with them. They defeat Sparty because Sparty doesn't deserve anything good. 

Committee Folly Commence

Well, I didn't get to see Vanderbilt justify their spot in the field last night with a win over mid-major Wichita State. Figure they went out and won handily against an inferior foe. Who did Wichita State even play this year? Look at that resume. 

Wait, a minute...the Shockers won by 20?!? That seems pretty lopsided for two "even" squads. Oh, well. Everyone knows Vandy tested themselves for this in the SEC.

Now, I have to admit I can be a slave to the numbers a lot of the times but Vandy is a clear example of a case where the eye test matters. They played uninspired basketball all year despite being in the top-30 of KenPom for the majority of the year. All that showed was they played below their capabilities. Sometimes, we need to trust our eyes and our eyes showed us all year, Vandy wasn't a tournament team. How the committee could not see this speaks volumes of their work.

Quick RPI note Then a Bracket Note

Last year I said I would pay more attention the NCSOS and did after the SMU/2014 debate.  It saved me from including South Carolina.  This year's note will be to pray to the almighty RPI which has been created to help the Power 5.  Thank you NCAA!  You've updated an old metric marketed as a way to help the mid-majors that actually helps the Power 5.

As for the bracket, I have no clue.  Usually I fill one out, make a handful of changes and I'm done.  The original is usually better than the last but that it.  The first one I filled out as completely chalky which after this season would see to make no sense.  The next one I made from scratch, a full 24 hours later had Maryland winning it all.  That doesn't make any sense either!  I said I wasn't going to pick Duke because of their depth and lack of defense but every other team has holes (well, maybe not Kansas) so it may be just a game of luck this year.

Next bracket filling out attempt will be over lunch.  24 hours after yesterday's attempt!

RIP RPI

The life of a low-to-mid major is tough sledding. Yesterday, it became apparent it's tougher than ever. 

Andy Glockner wrote this over at The Cauldron https://thecauldron.si.com/nevermonmouth-6d2e8a71ea27#.uo7cjckjq

Basically, Glockner points out how the Power 5 conferences can game the RPI, especially the Pac-12 who is wildly over seeded in almost every instance. He also points out what we mostly already know, low-to-mid majors are screwed when it comes to scheduling. While Power 5 conferences can build RPI equity in conference, the others can't. Monmouth played two home games before conference play. 

Using the RPI has gotten beyond ridiculous. It's not a good metric. There's enough chatter about gaming the RPI, you can expect the same moves from the Big 14, SEC & ACC.

Amazingly, the AAC got 4 teams in. Professional buffoon, Jon Rothstein proclaimed this a referendum for the league. Never mind none of the teams are greater than a 9-seed. Tulsa is the most talked about since zero people outside the committee chose them. They don't belong but neither does Temple who might be the worst at-large selection ever based on KenPom. He's not the only one who doesn't like them, Sagarin crushes them, too. They got a favorable unbalanced AAC schedule.

Ultimately, like always, the snubs are forgotten by tip-off Thursday. That's fine. What isn't fine, is the domination of college athletics by the Power 5. There's another seismic realignment percolating and when that happens, there will be no at-large bids for mid-majors and even the AAC's and Big East's of the worlds will be stuck outside with their faces against the window looking in. When that happens, the tournament and sport will be pretty disinteresting to me.

I'm adding this link to a Pat Fords article about Monmouth scheduling versus Syracuse and Vandy scheduling 

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/plenty-of-cinderellas-are-missing-the-dance--but-one-snub-is-particularly-cruel-045955196-ncaab.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=tw

The deck is stacked

Quick Notes on the bracket

Tulsa is an embarresment.  St. Bonaventure not getting in is terrible.  I can live with Michigan over Monmouth.   Vanderbilt over San Diego State, meh.

65 out of 68 is not good from my standpoint.

Not as good as I hoped.

I filled out a bracket already and hate it.  Scrapping it and starting over.

East Region

1. North Carolina (1)

2. West Virginia (3)

3. Kentucky (4)

4. Indiana (5)

5. Xavier (2)

6. Wisconsin (7)

7. Stephen F. Austin (14)

8. Notre Dame (6)

9. Pitt (10)

10. Providence (9)

11. USC (8)

12. Michigan (12, play-in)

13. Tulsa (12, play-in)

This is the best top 5 bracket this year. A potential West Virginia-Xavier and UNC-Kentucky Sweet 16 regional? That's Final 4 good.

Kentucky profiles as 2 seed. They're 8th on KenPom. Indiana profiles as a 4. Xavier is a 4 by KenPom. So, in a way, it evens out.

I really expect chalk all the way through this region. Notre Dame could lose to Michigan and Providence playing closer to home in Raleigh against USC would be the other upset.

Any of the top 5 can come out of this region.

West Region

1. Oklahoma (2)

2. Oregon (1)

3. Texas A&M (3)

4. Duke (4)

5. Baylor (5)

6. Texas (6)

7. Cincinnati (9)

8. VCU (10)

9. St. Joe's (8)

10. Yale (12)

11. Oregon State (7)

12. UNI (11)

This is the weakest region. It also shows how the committee overvalued the Pac-12. Oregon is a fine team but a 1-seed? Maybe on resume but 9th on KenPom shows how weak a 1-seed they are.

VCU looks like an easy pick over Oregon State. 

With 3-6 right, if those teams move into the 2nd round, the games should be pretty good. 

Duke probably couldn't have picked a better bracket if they wanted to save the season. Seriously, if they clicked, that's a doable region. Of course, they have to beat a talented UNC-Wilmington team.

I really think this bracket breaks best for Oklahoma.

Midwest Region

1. Virginia (1)

2. Michigan State (2)

3. Purdue (5)

4. Iowa State (4)

5. Seton Hall (6)

6. Utah (3)

7. Gonzaga (11)

8. Butler (9)

9. Syracuse (10)

10. Texas Tech (7)

11. UALR (12)

12. Dayton (7)

Utah is an example of the Pac-12 being overvalued by the committee. They're a good team and have a good draw, though.

Dayton is wildly overrated, too. But they're playing Syracuse who should be at home. Whoever wins that game will be run off the court by Michigan State.

Seton Hall is 25th and Gonzaga is 27th in KenPom. That's a pick 'em game in the 6-11 matchup. Hall's guard play might be the difference.

Won't be surprised if the regional final is Michigan State-Purdue in a rematch of the Big 14 title game.

South Region

As per usual, here's the South Region reseeded by KenPom. 

1. Kansas (1)

2. Villanova (2)

3. Wichita State (11, play-in)

4. Miami (3)

5. Arizona (6)

6. Iowa (7)

7. California (4)

8. Maryland (5)

9. Vanderbilt (11, play-in)

10. UConn (9)

11. Colorado (8)

12. Hawaii (13)

13. South Dakota State (12)

14. Temple (10)

This bracket is a mess. We knew Wichita State would get penalized but they're better than an 11 seed. That said, if Vandy plays to their potential, they are also better than a play-in team. I wouldn't count on it, though.

Iowa fell hard to 7 but catch a break with Temple who isn't that good. 

I'll be shocked if Kansas doesn't play Villanova in the regional final. 

Bracketology - Final

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kansas (B12) vs Holy Cross(Pat)/FDU(NEC)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Florida GC(Asun)

Michigan State (B1G) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

Oregon (P12) vs Hampton(MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Virginia vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)

Villanova vs Weber St (Bsky)

Oklahoma vs CS-Bakersfield (WAC)

Miami vs UWGB (Horizon)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs Hawaii (Bwest)

Xavier vs SFA (Sland)

West Virginia vs UNC-Wilmington (Colonial)

Utah vs Buffalo (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Fresno St (Mwest)

Texas A&M vs MTST (Cusa)

Maryland vs Iona (MAAC)

Iowa State vs Yale (Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Indiana vs Stony Brook (Aest)

Arizona vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Duke vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

California vs UALR (Sbelt)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Notre Dame vs Northern Iowa (Mvalley)

Dayton vs Syacuse/Monmouth

Seton Hall (Beast) vs San Diego St/Temple

Texas vs Wichita St

7 seed vs 10 seed

Iowa vs Butler

Texas Tech vs Gonzaga (WCC)

Baylor vs Pittsburgh

Wisconsin vs Cincinnati

8 seed vs 9 seed

St. Joseph's vs Connecticut (AAC)

Providence vs Oregon State

Colorado vs VCU (A10)

USC vs St. Bonavanture

Final

No changes to my final bracket.  We are sticking with what I posted an hour ago.

Bracketology - FINAL (kind of)

Hopefully I will post again before 4:30 should Purdue and/or Memphis win but for now this is my final bracket

If Purdue wins, Michigan State drops to a 2 and Virgina gets a 1.  If Memphis wins, they slide into a 14 seed between Hawaii and SFA and everybody moves up.  This squeezes out Monmouth.

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kansas (B12) vs Holy Cross(Pat)/FDU(NEC)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Florida GC(Asun)

Michigan State (B1G) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

Oregon (P12) vs Hampton(MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Virginia vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)

Villanova vs Weber St (Bsky)

Oklahoma vs CS-Bakersfield (WAC)

Miami vs UWGB (Horizon)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs Hawaii (Bwest)

Xavier vs SFA (Sland)

West Virginia vs UNC-Wilmington (Colonial)

Utah vs Buffalo (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Fresno St (Mwest)

Texas A&M vs MTST (Cusa)

Maryland vs Iona (MAAC)

Iowa State vs Yale (Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Indiana vs Stony Brook (Aest)

Arizona vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Duke vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

California vs UALR (Sbelt)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Notre Dame vs Northern Iowa (Mvalley)

Dayton vs Syacuse/Monmouth

Seton Hall (Beast) vs San Diego St/Temple

Texas vs Wichita St

7 seed vs 10 seed

Iowa vs Butler

Texas Tech vs Gonzaga (WCC)

Baylor vs Pittsburgh

Wisconsin vs Cincinnati

8 seed vs 9 seed

St. Joseph's vs Connecticut (AAC)

Providence vs Oregon State

Colorado vs VCU (A10)

USC vs St. Bonavanture

First Four Out

St.Mary's

Michigan

South Carolina

Valparasio

Next Four Out

Vanderbilt

Tulsa

Akron

George Wahington

Bracket Buster: Arkansas-Little Rock

From the Sun Belt comes Arkansas-Little Rock. They enter the tournament with 29 wins and are 56th in KenPom at the moment.

The Trojans are a tighter on defense than offense. They're 42nd in AdjustedD. Opponents have an effective fg% of 45.1%, 17th best. Teams only shoot 30% from 3 against them. They also have a turnover % of 21.4%, 21st best. They foul a lot and are a weak defensive rebounding team.

On offense, they're a good 3-pt shooting team. They make 39% of shots from deep, 18th best nationally. They also protect the ball well. They have only a 15.9 turnover %, 39th best. They are also a poor offensive rebounding team.

Junior Marcus Johnson shoots 42% from range and averages 12.7. This is a well-balanced club with only two players averaging double figures.

They beat San Diego State and Tulsa on the road this year. They also have a 22-point win at DePaul. They look like a team that can cause enough grief to an opponent to keep it close and with their shooting, a win next week shouldn't surprise anyone.

Update

Locking in San Diego state and Temple officially. I think the committee will take in consideration that they won the league and give them a bid.  That leaves 2 spots open for Monmouth, Syracuse, st. Mary's, and Michigan.  That falls to 1 spot if Memphis wins.

Currently leaning towards Monmouth and Syracuse as they have higher NCSOS, 127 and 123 compared to Michigan, 200ish and st. Mary's 160.

First Bracket Today

Locking in San Diego State which leaves 3 open spots to Monmouth, South Carolina, St. Mary's, Syracuse, and Temple.  Right now Temple and SC are out.

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kansas (B12) vs Holy Cross(Pat)/FDU(NEC)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Southern(SWAC)/Florida GC(Asun)

Michigan State (B1G) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

Oregon (P12) vs Hampton(MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Virginia vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)

Villanova vs Weber St (Bsky)

Oklahoma vs CS-Bakersfield (WAC)

Miami vs UWGB (Horizon)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs Hawaii (Bwest)

Xavier vs SFA (Sland)

West Virginia vs UNC-Wilmington (Colonial)

Utah vs Buffalo (MAC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Fresno St (Mwest)

Texas A&M vs MTST (Cusa)

Maryland vs Iona (MAAC)

Iowa State vs Yale (Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Indiana vs Stony Brook (Aest)

Arizona vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Duke vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

Notre Dame vs UALR (Sbelt)

6 seed vs 11 seed

California vs Northern Iowa (Mvalley)

Dayton vs Syacuse/St.Mary's

Seton Hall (Beast) vs San Diego St/Monmouth

Texas vs Wichita St

7 seed vs 10 seed

Iowa vs Butler

Texas Tech vs Gonzaga (WCC)

Baylor vs Pittsburgh

Wisconsin vs Cincinnati

8 seed vs 9 seed

St. Joseph's vs Connecticut (AAC)

Providence vs Oregon State

Colorado vs VCU (A10)

USC vs St. Bonavanture

First Four Out

Temple

South Carolina

Michigan

Valparasio

Next Four Out

Vanderbilt

Tulsa

Akron

George Wahington

Bracket Buster: Hawaii

Welcome back to the tournament, Rainbow Warriors!  Making their first dance since 2002, they won the Big West and finished the season 27-5.

This is a defensive minded squad. They're 40th in KenPom. Opponents have an effective fg% of 44.9%, 15th best in America. They produce a turnover % of 19.9%, 67th best. They also keep opponents off the glass. Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 26.7, 53rd best.

On offense, they're not as efficient. They're only 106th. The best thing they do is get to the charity stripe. They're 3rd in the nation on FTA/FGA. They have a decent effective fg% of 52.5, built largely on 2pt shooting. The Rainbow Warriors shoot 54.6% from 2, 16th overall. The number gets brought down from poor 3pt shooting.

The true highlight is, their best player is named Stefan Jankovic and they have another player named Stefan Jovanovic. The former averages 15.7ppg and 6.7rpg. 

They have wins over UNI, Auburn and lost by 3 to Oklahoma. My guess is, they'll put a scare into someone this week.

Morning Thoughts

Just inputted all the numbers from last night.  Now it's time to move the teams around.  First thing to do is lock in the new AQ's.  At that point we then move all the locks from the top up.  At first glance I see 4 spots open for 6 teams. That shrinks to 3 spots should Memphis win.  The 6 I'm looking at are:

South Carolina

San Diego St

Syracuse

St.Mary's

Temple

Monmouth

I am reserving the right to take a second look at these teams too:

Butler - that NCSOS scares me

Wichita St - if you factor in the games without Fred Van Vleet they are a lock but the committee can be strange at times

Right now I would lean towards South Carolina getting the SMU-2014 treatment for bad non-conference scheduling.  And either Monmouth or St. Mary's.

Bracket Buster: Stephen F. Austin

Brad Underwood and Thomas Walkup are back once again for March Madness. The Lumberjacks are 34th in KenPom, 61st on offense and 27th on defense. 

On offense, they're a very good shooting team. They have an effective fg% of 55.5%, 12th best. They shoot 37% from 3 and 55.1% from 2. They don't get to the line often but when they do, they shoot 74.4%. They are also a good offensive rebounding team. 

A solid defensive club, they thrive off an aggressive defense that leads the nation in turnover %. With a 25.9% rate and 12.1% steal rate, if they draw a team with sketchy ball handling, it'll be to their advantage. With the aggressiveness comes fouls. Similar to West Virginia, they foul a lot. 

I mentioned Thomas Walkup, the highly efficient forward who is sixth in offensive rating scores 17.5ppg and adds 6.8rpg and 4.5apg. They also have two other solid seniors in Demetrious Floyd and Clide Greffard.  

Of all the bracket busters, this is my favorite. Unfortunately, they didn't do a good job when given the chance in non-conference. Would like to see them on the 13 line and I'd consider them for a Sweet 16 run.

LOLSU

I was golfing today and following games on my phone and I kept going back to the LSU game in utter amazement. As we know, they lost 71-38.

That was .55 points per possession for the Tigers today. They had 13 points at half. They had 4 assists all game. They went 5-27 from 3 and 7-15 from the FT line.

Ben Simmons is going to make a lot of money in the NBA and just oozes with talent. Some people bemoan his posture and body language when things get tough but I blame the coach here. He isn't being coached well at all. My hope is, he gets drafted by a solid NBA organization that can make him realize all his potential. 

No coach in America has done a worse job than Johnny Jones. Others had disappointing seasons, none had this level of talent at their disposal. This is why the top kids go to Coach K, John Calipari, Bill Self. We may not like the system but those coaches will make you better.

Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed

Kansas (B12) vs Holy Cross(Pat)/FDU(NEC)

Villanova (Beast) vs JackSt(SWAC)/Florida GC(Asun)

Michigan State (B1G) vs Austin Peay (OVC)

North Carolina (ACC) vs Hampton(MEAC)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Virginia vs UNC-Ashville (Bsouth)

Oregon (P12) vs Weber St (Bsky)

Oklahoma vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Miami vs UWGB (Horizon)

3 seed vs 14 seed

Kentucky (SEC) vs Hawaii (Bwest)

Xavier vs SFA (Sland)

West Virginia vs UNC-Wilmington (Colonial)

Utah vs MTST (Cusa)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Purdue vs Northern Iowa (Mvalley)

Texas A&M vs Iona (MAAC)

Maryland vs Stony Brook (Aest)

Iowa State vs Yale (Ivy)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Indiana vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

Arizona vs Chattanooga (SoCon)

Duke vs UALR (Sbelt)

Notre Dame vs Akron (MAC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

California vs San Diego State (Mwest)

Dayton vs Temple (AAC)

Texas vs Syracuse/St.Mary's

Iowa vs S.Carolina/Connecticut

7 seed vs 10 seed

Texas Tech vs Wichita St

Baylor vs Gonzaga (WCC)

Wisconsin vs Pittsburgh

Providence vs Cincinnati

8 seed vs 9 seed

Seton Hall vs Butler

Colorado vs Oregon State

St. Joseph's vs VCU (A10)

USC vs St. Bonavanture First Four Out Monmouth Michigan Valparasio Vanderbilt Next Four Out Tulsa Alabama Georgia Davidson