Top Seed Most Likely To Lose In The First Round

When I sat down to research this article I figured it would be a two, maybe three team race for the Team Most Likely To Lose Early.  When pouring over the numbers though I had red flags on 6 of my 12 teams seeded 1-3 and that’s not including Wichita State which automatically gets a red flag because they come from a mid-major.  The 6 teams that I analyzed further included Duke, Michigan, San Diego State, Syracuse, Wisconsin, and Creighton.  Let’s break each team down individually.

Duke – Their issues surround the defensive side of the court.  Currently they are 56^th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency.  However, as of 3 weeks ago they were pushing 100^th so they’ve shown top 25 defense in the last couple weeks as Coach K tweaks his lineup.  Playing Hairston less and Plumlee more seems to shore up the post defense a little bit.  It may not be enough to win a championship but I do think it’s enough to prevent a first round exit.

Michigan – Another poor defensive team,  they rank lower than Duke at 80^th.  They’ve played 13 top 50 teams and finished 8-5 in those games.  I think they are ripe for a 14-3 upset especially against a sound defensive mid-major.  If you are a Michigan fan pray they don’t get Harvard, Vermont, or UC-Irvine.

Syracuse – If they aren’t hitting their outside shots they are done.  Another red flag is something Jim Boehiem is familiar with, a low Non-Conference Strength of Schedule.  They weren’t tested much outside of the Carrier Dome and have lost 3 of their last 4.  I’m not sure they are Final Four material but I think they survive the first weekend.

Wisconsin – Admit it, you knew they’d be on this list.  As good as they’ve looked in the past two weeks they are still only 7-5 in their last 12.  Efficiency-wise they are just good enough to be considered for the Final Four.  Normally I am all about Wisconsin being over-rated but this year may be different.

Creighton – Another team hindered by defense, they are 85^th in KenPom.  I really felt this would be the team nominated here.  They have a good scoring margin and am 5-3 against the top 50 RPI.  Big wins over Villanova show they can win on the road as well.

San Diego State – And here is your nominee for Team Most Likely to Lose in the First Round.  Let’s run through the list.  Weak Non-Conference Strength of Schedule, 110^th, check.  Poor Offensive Efficiency, 97^th, check.  Not enough scoring, less than 73 per game, check.  Struggle against top teams, 2-2 against the top 50, check.  The Aztecs are in a tough situation especially if a team can push the pace and play a little defense.  A matchup like Georgetown had against Florida Gulf Coast last year will spell doom for San Diego State.  A team like Iona or Georgia State will be a matchup nightmare for them and in my latest bracket that’s what they are going to get.  Go ahead and pencil in the 14 seed against SDst when the bracket comes out.