Midwest Region

Re-seeding by KenPom:

1. Louisville
2. Wichita State
3. Duke
4. Michigan
5. Tennessee
6. Kentucky
7. Iowa
8. St. Louis
9. Texas
10. Xavier
11. Kansas State
12. Arizona State
13. UMass

Overseeded: UMass, ASU, KSU, Texas, SLU, Michigan, Wichita State

UMass started the season on fire and slowly slid towards the middle through A-10 play. An argument can be made they don't belong in the field. As a 6 seed, they're 25 spots behind potential 2nd round opponent Iowa and 40 spots behind Tennessee. Can UMass win that game? Duh. anything can happen but the numbers suggest otherwise. The other outlier is St. Louis whose 5 seed probably is one of the more surprising seedings from yesterday. Xavier is 24 spots ahead of NC State and 8 behind SLU. Xavier is a bit of a mystery because of the injury to Stainbrook. NC State is the weakest, by far, of all the at-large teams. The other overseeded teams are a line or 2 off in this particluar region. Be wary of michigan in this group who is 103rd in defensive efficiency. They're ripe to get beat.

Underseeded: Xavier, Iowa, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisville

Xavier is better by the numbers than the last four in but have been inconsistent all year. If Stainbrook is healthy, they will be a decent favorite over the Wolfpack, who as I mentioned really don't belong. Tennessee has been the outlier in KenPom all season. They have the look and talent of a team you expect to do be better but the results don't always show it. The same holds true of Iowa. Of all play-in games, arguably in history of play-ins, this is the best and most intriguing. Whoever wins should be a decent sized favorite over UMass and would give Duke a headache in the round of 32. Youth is Kentucky's biggest issue. I think they roll Kansas State but Wichita State will be licking their chops to get a shot at them. I'd expect a motivated and relentless Wichita team in that game. Louisville is a 4 because they had to spend a year in the American and a weak non-conference schedule but the numbers and eye-test love them.

Top 10 Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Teams:

- Wichita State, 5th overall (8th O, 10th D)
- Louisville, 2nd overall (10th O, 6th D)

Duke is 2nd in offense and Michigan is 3rd but both are in the 100s on defense. They do not profile as Final 4 teams. St. Louis is 8th on defense but 175th on offense and that number has been sliding for a month.

Random Observations:

Duke is the only team on the same line and will have atough matchup against a veteran Mercer team. I believe it will be a close game...Louisville is the trendy pick to come out of this bracket. I like them a lot, too...Michigan is bad defensive team that can't afford to have a bad shooting game. Don't be shocked by an early exit...

Best Choice(s):

- Louisville or Wichita State