Sunday, March 16, 2014

Bracket Buster: Stephen F. Austin

From the Southland comes the team with the 28 game winning streak, the Lumberjacks of Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks currently sit 60th in KenPom rating 47th in AdjustedO and 83rd in AdjustedD. Probably a 13-seed, they will make whatever 4 that gets them, very nervous.

They have an effective fg% of 52.4%, 50th in the land. They shoot 52.3% from 2. They're good at protecting the ball, with a turnover % of 16.8%, 70th in the land. Where they really excel is on the offensive glass. They're 11th in the nation in offensive rebounding %, at 38.5%. They can generate second chances and longer possessions.

Defensively, teams shoot well against them. Opponents have a 50.2% effective fg% and shoot 49.5% from 2. That's 204th in the nation. What they do well on this end is, force turnovers. Teams turn it over 24.4% of the time, 3rd best. If they match up with a team loose with the ball, they'll get some transition looks. They do a foul a lot, 332nd in FTA/FGA on defense. Like Manhattan, a good free throw shooting team should get some easy points. They're decent on the defensive glass. Opoonents offensive rebounding % is 29.3%, 78th overall.

The two players to know are senior Desmond Haymon and junior Jacob Parker. Haymon scores 14.3ppg while Parker gets 14.2ppg and 7 rebounds per game.

Stephen F. Austin sort of reminds me of Davidson a year ago, riding a long winning streak into the tournament. Davidson by all rights should have beaten Marquette. I think the Lumberjacks can do the same. They should be a tough opponent for whoever they draw, especially if it's a team prone to sloppiness.

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