Monday, March 17, 2014

South Region

Re-Seeding by KenPom:

1. Florida
2. Kansas
3. VCU
4. Syracuse
5. UCLA
6. Pittsburgh
7. Ohio State
8. New Mexico
9. Stanford
10. Dayton
11. Stephen F. Austin
12. Colorado

Overseeded: Syracuse, Ohio State, New Mexico, Colorado

Nothing is really out of whack here except Colorado. At this point, I'd argue Utah would have been a better team from the Pac-12. That's a bit unfair to Colorado who lost Spencer Dinwiddie, though. Syracuse is a 3-seed in name only at this point. The rest are one-line differences in this region only.

Underseeded: VCU, Pitt, Dayton, Stanford, SFA

The big difference here is Pitt. Pitt is often a KP favorite. Low possession and solid defensively, Pitt doesn't wow you and often leaves you underwhelmed and deservedly so. There is an eye test and Pitt is the perfect example. No one can argue their 9 seed. VCU moves up two slots largely due to their 2nd national ranking in defensive efficiency. They'll have a tough matchup against SFA. Not a lot of movement here.

- There are no top 10 teams in both offensive and defensive efficiency. The only top 10 offensive team is Kansas. They are without Joel Embiid but Andrew Wiggins is showing us Carmelo-like glimpses. The aforementioned Rams are 2nd nationally in defense. Ohio State is 4th but a paltry 122nd on offense. Florida is the best overall team, 5th on defense, 15th on offense.

Random Observations: When this bracket came out first yesterday, the number nerds proclaimed it a beast because you have 7 teams in KenPom's top 18. Ohio State has played better on offense but still finds itself in large scoring droughts. If Smith and Scott play well, they can make a run but they haven't been consistent. Remember, Aaron Craft is a role player and nothing more...I mentioned Pitt who often is in this spot in the numbers. Do you and have you believed in Pitt the last half dozen years or so? They should beat Colorado but I can't see them beating Florida...UCLA enters "hot" having won the Pac-12 tournament but lost by 20 at Wazzu on the 8th of March. Tread lightly...VCU has a real tough team in SFA. Both rely on turningthe opposition over. Could very well be the best 5-12 game...New Mexico lost to Kansas in December. Good thing they might play in the round of 32...If Syracuse and Ohio State play, one team may not see 40 points...

Best Choice:

Florida seems a prohibitive favorite to me in this region

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