Monday, March 18, 2013

The Brackets by the Numbers

Here's a brief look at the brackets if we re-seeded based on KenPom rankings.  Though I spend time here looking at these things, the true beauty of this game and the tournament is, anything can happen.  Perhaps, though, these numbers could help you look for upsets or teams capable of better post-season results.  I think most reasonable people can agree about things like, Syracuse hasn't played like the 13th best team in the nation for the past month or Butler sure seems like they play better than 52nd when the competetion is elevated.  That's the fun part of filling out or brackets, we may believe something despite evidence to the contrary.  Gut, numbers, hatred, love, mascots, colors, chaos.  Go with any of them and enjoy the madness.  After all, wagering is illegal unless at an approved sports book.

I also included Nate Silver's Final 4 probabilites for strictly entertainment purposes.

EAST

Re-Seeding by KenPom:

  1. Indiana (3rd overall)
  2. Syracuse (13)
  3. Miami (14)
  4. Marquette (25)
  5. NC State (35)
  6. UNLV (36)
  7. Illinois (42)
  8. Colorado (50)
  9. Butler (52)
  10. California (58)
  11. Davidson (59)
  12. Bucknell (62)
  13. Temple (68)
Nate Silver Final 4 Probability:

  1. Indiana 52.3%
  2. Miami 12.7%
  3. Syracuse 11.7%
  4. Marquette 6.0%
  5. NC State 4.8%
  6. Butler 3.1%
What stands out:  It appears Temple is overseeded and Davidson & NC State are underseeded based on region.  As we move to the other regions, what also stands out is, this is the weakest region.  Ask yourself this when filling out your bracket, what coach in this group do I trust most?  May not be a bad idea.

WEST

Re-Seeding by KenPom:

  1. Gonzaga (4th overall)
  2. Ohio State (5)
  3. Pitt (7)
  4. Wisconsin (9)
  5. New Mexico (17)
  6. Arizona (19)
  7. Kansas State (30)
  8. Notre Dame (31)
  9. Wichita State (33)
  10. Ole Miss (34)
  11. Iowa State (37)
  12. Belmont (46)
Nate Silver Final 4 Probability:

  1. Gonzaga 33.4%
  2. Ohio State 23.8%
  3. Wisconsin 9.5%
  4. New Mexico 9.3%
  5. Pitt & KSU 4.7%
What stands out:  The computer numbers and Jay Bilas have loved Pitt all year.  Same with Wisconsin.  Both have offensive droughts that make the Sahara look waterlogged.  Same with Ohio State.  We'll see what gives.  Whatever happens in that portion, if Gonzaga beats all to move on through the West, they'll have more than proven themselves.  Based on the numbers, they should have to defeat Pitt, UW & OSU, 3 top 10 KP teams.  It'll probably end up being WSU, KSU, NM and that would be okay, too.  KSU has de facto home games by playing in Kansas City.

MIDWEST

Re-Seeding by KenPom:

  1. Louisville (2nd overall)
  2. Duke (6)
  3. Michigan State (10)
  4. Creighton (15)
  5. St. Louis (16)
  6. Missouri (18)
  7. Oklahoma State (20)
  8. St. Mary's (22)
  9. Colorado State (24)
  10. Middle Tennessee (32)
  11. Memphis (39)
  12. Cincinnati (40)
  13. Oregon (43)
Nate Silver Final 4 Probability:

  1. Louisville 52.9%
  2. Duke 18.3%
  3. Michigan State 10.6%
  4. St. Louis 4.6%
  5. Missouri & Creighton 2.8%
What stands out:  Out of the 3 regions we'vebriefly looked at, this is indeed the toughest.  Perhaps Oregon is seeded where they should be.  The play-in game between Middle Tennessee & St. Mary's is a bit of a shame.  Both profile as teams capable of doing some bracket busting, though nothing is certain.  I don't think Michigan State is as good as their profile but get two de facto home games in Detroit.  I was a bit surprised Silver has Louisville as the overwhelming favorite to win the region.  They will earn their way to a Final Four should they make it.

SOUTH

Re-Seeding by KenPom

  1. Florida (1st Overall)
  2. Kansas (8)
  3. Michigan (11)
  4. Georgetown (12)
  5. VCU (21)
  6. Minnesota (23)
  7. San Diego State (26)
  8. North Carolina (28)
  9. UCLA (44)
  10. Villanova (45)
  11. Oklahoma (51)
Nate Silver Final 4 Probability:

  1. Florida 37.1%
  2. Kansas 31.6%
  3. Michigan 12.8%
  4. Georgetown 6.9%
What stands out:  The fatal flaw of Florida has been their inability to win single-digit games.  They've won zero.  So, win by double-digits, right?  Someone called this the bracket of "teams no-one believes in".  Hard to argue that.  Also, there are a lot of Final 4's colllectively in this group, isn't there?  My gut last night said Florida here and the numbers lean that way but...other things that stand out are UCLA & Minnesota could be swapped.  Minnesota bulit their numbers from crazy early success while UCLA went the other route.  Have faith in either?

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