Bracket Buster: Belmont

For the third straight year, the Belmont Bruins have made the NCAA tournament and for the 6th time overall.  The last two years, they had very good teams capable of winning a game or two and proceeded to lose by double-digits to Wisconsin & Georgetown.  In 2008, they did take Duke to the wire, losing 71-70.  Can this team break through and win in the dance?  because I've liked them the last two years and they were never threats in their games to pull the upset.

Belmont finished 2011, 19th overall in KenPpom and 23rd in 2012 in KenPom.  Today, they are 41st overall.  They are 63rd in adjustedO and 47th in AdjustedD.  Offensively, they are a 3-point shooting team du jour.  They're effective fg% is 56.8%, 2nd best in the nation.  They shoot 37.6% from deep, 37th best and are a nation's best 57.1% from inside the arc.  50% of their scoring this season has come from beyond the arc.  Wow.  They do not get to the line at all.  They're 312th overall in getting points from the line.  They also don't board misses.  The Bruins offensive rebounding% is 30.4% which is 216th.  They are so-so in ball protection with an offensive turnover % of 19.8%, 162nd in the nation.

Defensively, they force turnovers.  Their defensive turnover % is 25%, 10th best.  They have the 8th best steal % of 13.9.  Opponents have an effective fg% of 47.4%, which is good for 125th,  They don't board well on defense, either. Belmont's defensive rebounding % is 33.95, 262nd. 

They have senior leadership that shouldn't be overwhelmed by the atmosphere, though to me, they've looked overwhelmed the last two years.  PG Kerron Johnson put the Bruins into the tournament with his game winner on Saturday in the final second.  He scores 13.7ppg and averages 4.8 assissts per game.  Fellow SR. guard Ian Clark is a deadly shooter. He shotts 46% from deep and has an effective fg% overall of 67%, pretty good for a guard.  Overall, he gets 18ppg.  SR. forward Trevor Noack shoots 42% from deep to go with 5.5rpg.

Belmont doesn't have a great win on their resume.  Their best win is over perenial sad flower Middle Tennessee.  They did schedule well.  They have the nation's 2nd best SOS out of conference that balances what was the 211th SOS in conference.  They got waxed by Kansas and lost by 10 at VCU.  The worst loss is to Northeastern who may rep the CAA.

Belmont has a chance to win a game this year.  If you want to pick them as a bracket buster, I'd look to see if they draw a team that doesn't handle the ball well or guard the 3 pointer well.  They could be due, too.  With the seniors they have, they should be motivated to win.