Monday, March 4, 2013

Havoc, thy name is VCU

Over the weekend, VCU throttled Butler reminding people of that other "mid-major" that has made some noise the past decade in the tournament.  In a game that was never close, VCU improved to 11-3 in a solid A-10, good for 2nd place.

The Rams RPI is 31.  Their best win was at Atlantis when everyone was beating Memphis.  They beat Alabama at home but 'bama has since done what 'bama tends to do, scuffle through the SEC.  VCU's worst loss was at a solid Richmond team.  They also lost in Atlantis to Duke & Missouri and lost at Wichita State.

VCU is 17th overall in KenPom.  Their AdjustedO is 17th, the AdjustedD is 35th.  If you follow the Rams at all, you know they call their defensive style "Havoc", pressing and trapping, similar on the defensive end to Arkansas 40 minutes of hell.  No one forces TO's like them.  They have the nayions best defensive TO%, 29.3%, besting the national average of 20.1%.  Their overall steal% is 17.7%, again best.  Despite this, they're 54th overall in scoring defense.  Teams can get looks against them.  Their effective defensive fg% is 49.3%, 201st worst.  They give up a lot of offensive boards, teams getting 34.9% of misses, 291st worst.  Their FTA/FGA is 38.6%, 247th worst but teams only get about the national average of their points at the line against VCU.  Overall teams shoot 49.6% from inside the arc, 253rd worst.  If they're not forcing turnovers, they're in trouble.

The numbers say they are better offensively though you'll hear about "Havoc" more.  They're 12th overall nationally in scoring.  Their effective fg% is 51.6%, shooting 35% from deep and 51.2% from inside the arc.  While they struggle on the defensive glass, they are good on the offensive glass, getting 38% of misses, 20th best.  And they protect the ball while forcing TOs.  Their turnover% is 17.3%, 36th best. 

They run deep on their roster with their style.  SR. PG Darius Theus doesn;t light up the scoreboard but gets 5apg and 2.7 steals per game.  He's a true PG, setting up his teammates.  The leading scorer is Treveon Graham, a 6'5" G who shoots for 38% from deep.  He also grabs 6rpg.  Juvonte Reddic, a 6'9" JR gets 14.3 and 8 boards per game to go along with a 57.7 effective fg%. 

VCU's numbers inidcate they are good enough to make a deep run.  As we know, the numbers don't mean anything in a one and done situation.  Brian has them on the 8 line and they'd need, say, a Georgetown like team in round two to move on.  An A-10 tourney title probably bumps them and gives them a better shot at a Sweet 16.  As usual, they'll be a tough matchup.

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