A Few Comparisons

The biggest question mark as it pertains to bubble teams this year will be the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders.  Most bracketologists have them out but I still have them as a 12 seed.  Let me show you why.  Their  computer numbers look great, RPI of 28, KenPom 31, Sagarin of 55.  However, the key number to look at is Non-Conference strength of schedule.  The committee always leans on teams that stretch themselves out outside of the conference since teams can’t control how good everybody in the conference is.  This is where the Blue Raiders excel with a NCSOS of 9 in the country.  Now, the other stats that the committee look at, top 25, top 50, and top 100 record aren’t as good with them coming in at 0-2, 0-0, and 2-1 but let me show you a side by side comparison of the Blue Raiders resume with a team from last year:

Team	W-L	RPI	Kpom	Sagrn	SOS	NSOS	1-25	26-50	51-100
Mid Tenn State	28-5	28	31	55	135	9	0-2	0-0	2-1
Team X	25-7	40	53	52	159	41	0-0	0-1	5-2

Of these two teams, which is more likely to get a bid?  Middle Tennessee State has better numbers than Team X in all categories except game 1-25 (which is small since neither has a win) and 51-100 (which I chalk up to a weak conference).  I see MTst getting a bid ahead of Team X no problem.  Now, in case you haven’t figured out who’s profile Team X is, it’s Iona from last year.  They got in ahead of who I believe were the last teams out Drexel and Seton Hall.  Let’s do a comparison of Drexel, Seton Hall, and another team I have in the bracket this year.  We’ll call that team, Team Y

Team	W-L	RPI	Kpom	Sagrn	SOS	NSOS	1-25	26-50	51-100
Team Y	19-9	37	48	57	68	218	2-5	2-1	4-1
Seton Hall	20-12	64	47	47	56	125	1-4	3-3	3-2
Drexel	27-6	63	41	56	247	225	0-0	1-2	3-1

Outside of RPI there’s not much difference between Team Y and Seton Hall (and SH’s NCSOS is way better).  Drexel looks far and away the worse of the three and it’s clear why they didn’t get a bid last year.  That NCSOS was a killer for them and Team Y’s is almost the same.  Guess who Team Y is?  Boise State.  Suddenly I don’t feel very confident about their chances and a win over San Diego State tonight is a must or they will probably be out.  

I'm calling it right now, 1 of the First Four games in Dayton will be Middle Tennessee State vs LaSalle.  The other will probably be Tennessee or Kentucky vs California but that's for another post.