In response to Brian's Big East quandry, let's look at Cincinnati & Notre Dame.
Cincinnati has a good win at Vanderbilt and a win over Maryland. They sit at 49 in the RPI and their SOS is 32. The remaining schedule is daunting. They have home games with Syracuse, Marquette and Villanova and road games at UConn, Georgetown, South Florida and West Virginia. Oof. They need to beat Marquette, South Florida & probably UConn and not slip up against DePaul. Looking at their team numbers, the Bearcats are middle of the pack or lower in most categories except rebound margin which they are 13th. You can't spell N-I-T without Cincinnati.
Notre Dame doesn't have a signature win at all. Beating UCLA this year does not qualify. They also have a head-scratching loss to Loyola Marymount (11-12). The RPI is 71 and SOS 70. The Irish schedule is a little more forgiving. They have South Florida, St. John's, UConn and Pitt at home. They travel to the Hall, 'Quette, GTown & the 'Ville. Will .500 get them in? Maybe, but they'll need at least 1 win in the Big East tournament.
Notre Dame is a case where lack of defense is a severe flaw. Not only are they 248th in scoring defense, but they also rank 205th in FG defense. They don't help themselves ranking 213rd in blocked shots and 288th in steals. They protect the ball and can fill the hoop but they're one of the worst defensive teams in college basketball. They'll have to completely rely on outscoring teams and staying hot from behind the arc (12th nationally) but at some point, they'll go cold and get run off the court.
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