Michigan’s buzzer beater on Saturday was pretty awesome but sort of hides what have been two ugly games for the Wolverines. They beat a game Montana team in a terrible game and then survived a very good Houston team. They shot 36% and 8-30 from 3. That’s not a John Beilein team. This team is like some of those Wisconsin teams pre-Dekker.
As for the Aggies, a team I pegged as a Final 4 contender before the season, they had a great opening weekend. They handled Providence and then throttled UNC. UNC was discombobulated from the start. It probably isn’t realistic to expect such an offensive performance from A&M again.
Michigan is 3rd in defensive efficiency and A&M is 9th. Offensively both are 36th and 65th respectively.
If the first weekend results hold, A&M wins this game easy. If both teams regress/progress to the mean, Michigan is the favorite. The numbers can be misleading. A&M really was hampered by injuries this year and are finally mostly healthy. They’ll also have a big size advantage. A bad shooting night again from Michigan coupled with their poor FT shooting would spell doom. Everything screams A&M in this game to me.
Texas A&M 63 Michigan 60
Gonzaga vs. Florida State
For the entire season, the Zags have resided inside the KenPom top 10. I sort of dismissed them because I just didn’t think the results they had this year warranted them being a true top 10 team but here we are, another Sweet 16 for the school from Spokane. They’ve won 16 straight and 22 of 23. They held off a good Greensboro team and showed brilliance and toughness against Ohio State.
As for FSU, they looked brilliant against Missouri. They got some help from Xavier on Sunday night in advancing but there’s no shame in that. They still had to execute. That said, I still believe X was one of the weakest 1-seeds in years.
The Zags are pretty solid favorites and have a top 20 offense and defense. FSU is 32nd in offense and 55th in defense. If we get into four factors and other numbers, it’s hard to find an area where FSU has an advantage. I like the Zags to reach their 3rd Elite 8 in 4 years. That’s damn impressive if they do.
Gonzaga 83 Florida State 70
No comments:
Post a Comment