Bubble Notes

By my calculations there are still 5 spots that are "open" for consideration.  In order of safety from my point of view are the following:

Alabama - 5 game losing streak hurt but got huge win over Auburn in SEC tournament
St. Mary's - floated between 6-8 all year and suddenly they are an 11?
Oklahoma - I want to drop them out since they haven't won outside of home since 2017
USC - can secure an auto bid with win over Arizona
Louisville - 14 Q1 games and only 3 wins

These are the teams I am still considering for a spot. 

Notre Dame - damn you Bonzie Colson!  If he's healthy 3 more games they are a 10 seed
Middle Tennessee St - 3-3 in Q1 games (Louisville was 3-11).  NCSOS of 8 shows they tried
Arizona State - Have no wins against anybody currently considered an at-large
Marquette - 4-8 in Q1 games but all metrics are in the mid 50's
Syracuse - 3-8 in Q1 games; did some but probably not enough.

As a side note with all this talk about Quadrant wins here are the records of these teams against Q1 teams:
Alabama - 7-6
St. Mary's - 2-1
Oklahoma - 6-9
USC - 4-5
Louisville - 3-11
Notre Dame - 2-9
Middle Tennessee St - 3-3
Arizona State - 3-4
Marquette - 4-8
Syracuse - 3-8

By that metric Alabama and Oklahoma seem safe.  The next comes to preference.  Would you rather have a team play 12 times and win 4 or play 6 and win 3?  If Middle Tennessee had 14 chances like Louisville instead of 6 could they have won 4, 5, or 6?  If so they aren't even on the bubble; they are a 10.

Time to crunch some more numbers.