Feels like we have a lot of teams middling around the top 20 this year. It’s not really that much different than most years but let’s start exposing some teams.
10. Marquette - We’re at the point of the season where Marquette fans are now saying “more” like they’re Kylo Ren trying to evaporate Luke Skywalker from the universe. Reality is, the season is a resounding success regardless of how it finishes. The offense has stagnated a bit and gets a big test in Omaha this week. A win Tuesday should just about lock up the regular season Big East title.
9. Creighton - Speaking of Omaha, Creighton now looks like the team we expected in the pre-season. Believe it or not, this team’s strength is its defense and the offense is good enough for a Final 4 run. Depth is a concern but I like their chances next month more than some teams still to be listed.
8. Tennessee - Calling them frauds is unfair. They have the nations best defensive team but the offense is only 67th. Could they make a Final Four? The answer is yes but I won’t be surprised to see them go home the first weekend.
7. Purdue - This is still a Final 4 type team, however, they only shoot 33% from deep. Teams only shoot 30% from deep against them but playing a glacial pace, can Purdue survive a hot night from an opponent and score enough to overcome that? They’ve scored 58 and 54 the last two games which were losses. If they manage to finish 4-0 with wins over Illinois, Indiana and at the Kohl Hole, they should get a 1-seed but they’d be a vulnerable 1-seed.
6. St. Mary’s - Another slow paced team, they make enough 3’s and don’t turn it over. Still, this feels like a team that loses in the 2nd round by a score of 62-51 in a game that was never that close.
5. Arizona - 7th in KenPom offense and 40th in KenPom defense. They love to push the pace. If you dive into the numbers, it’s simply a solid team. They finish the season at home against ASU and then travel to LA for USC and UCLA. If they run that gauntlet 3-0, they stay out west for the tournament regardless of what happens with the Pac-12 tournament. I’ll just put it out there the much-maligned Pac-12 might put 2 squads into the Final 4.
4. UCLA - Mick Cronin has done better here than I think most people thought he would. He’s playing his style of basketball, good defense, slow-tempo and efficient offense. It’s maddening to watch at times because they could push pace at times with their athletes and part of me wonders if that’s a flaw that comes back to haunt them at some point. Still, 23rd in offense and 2nd in defense, this is a team more than capable of cutting the nets down. Head to Utah and Colorado this week and finish with the desert schools in LA. The Arizona game will have a lot on the line.
3. Kansas - For one half yesterday, the Jayhawks looked like the best team in America. That, however, was after a half where they looked like a team itching to go home early in March. They’re 15th in both offense and defense which makes them legit title contenders. The last game of the year at Texas may decide the Big XII Title. Fascinating squad.
2. Houston - I’m still torn on them. Calling them Gonzaga of ‘23 is insulting to them and the Zags but the difference between the WCC and AAC is minimal this year. What I’m trying to say is, they’re not getting tested enough in league. They’re +14 in AdjEM versus the next closest team in the AAC. They play slow and can get into rock fights. A national title wouldn’t shock me, nor would a 58-47 loss to an 8-seed like Michigan State in round 2.
1. Alabama - The antithesis to Houston. 2nd fastest team in the country with the 3rd best defense. When the offense is firing on all cylinders, it’s like watching UNLV of yore. Not sure we’ve seen such an explosive squad in decades. Unbelievably, the last game of the season at Texas A&M could decide the league. Just remember, the defensive numbers are better than the offensive numbers and the offense can run you out of the gym. Wild team
