National Championship: Duke over Illinois
Final Four:
Duke
Arizona
Illinois
UConn
3 Who Will Overachieve:
Gonzaga
Marquette
Villanova
3 Who Will Underachieve:
Kansas
Michigan State
Texas
Player of the Year: Thomas Haugh, Florida
Coach of the Year: Brad Underwood, Illinois
All-Americans (Position-less):
Thomas Haugh, Florida
Jeremy Fears Jr., Michigan State
John Blackwell, Duke
Tyler Tanner, Vanderbilt
Jordan Smith Jr., Arkansas
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The SEC enters the 2026–27 season as the nation's top-ranked conference according to the preseason KenPom ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +21.35, the SEC holds a comfortable advantage over the rest of college basketball. The initial OCMM bracket projection includes 12 SEC teams in the NCAA Tournament, with seven earning seeds of No. 7 or better. After several seasons of establishing itself as arguably the strongest conference in the country, the SEC shows no signs of slowing down.
Florida leads the way as a No. 1 seed and enters the season as one of the favorites to win the national championship. The Gators return an impressive collection of talent, including Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Rueben Chinyelu, giving Todd Golden one of the most experienced and talented rosters in the country. Florida is ranked second nationally in the preseason KenPom ratings, trailing only Duke. While the Gators certainly have the pieces to win another national championship, I'm sticking with the Blue Devils as my preseason No. 1 team.
The conference's strength extends well beyond Florida. Alabama and Texas both earn No. 3 seeds in the initial OCMM projection, while Vanderbilt checks in as a No. 4 seed. Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas follow as No. 5 seeds, giving the SEC seven teams positioned to make serious runs in March. Texas is an especially interesting program to watch under Sean Miller, while Arkansas and Tennessee should once again be major factors in the conference championship race.
The middle of the conference is equally impressive. Auburn and Kentucky both earn No. 7 seeds, while Oklahoma checks in as a No. 8 seed. Georgia and Missouri round out the SEC's projected tournament field as No. 10 seeds. That gives the conference 12 NCAA Tournament teams before the season even begins, an extraordinary level of depth that should make conference play a nightly challenge. Even teams projected toward the bottom of the standings possess enough talent to pull off significant upsets.
One of the biggest questions surrounding the SEC is whether its impressive depth will translate into another dominant NCAA Tournament performance. The league features several legitimate Final Four contenders, but navigating the conference schedule will be difficult. Florida, Alabama, Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas all have the talent to make deep runs, and it wouldn't be surprising to see multiple SEC teams playing during the second weekend of the tournament.
OCMM Outlook: The SEC opens the season as the nation's top-ranked conference, with 12 teams projected into the NCAA Tournament and seven earning top-five seeds. Florida leads the way as a legitimate national championship contender, while Alabama, Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Arkansas provide tremendous strength at the top. The conference's depth is unmatched, and the SEC should once again be a major force in March. However, while Florida may be the SEC's best team, I still believe Duke is the team everyone will be chasing when the NCAA Tournament arrives.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Big 12 enters the 2026–27 season ranked second nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +19.60, the conference boasts arguably the most impressive collection of national championship contenders in college basketball. The initial OCMM bracket projection has 11 Big 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament, including four teams on the top two seed lines.
Houston leads the way as a No. 1 seed, followed by Arizona, Iowa State, and Kansas as No. 2 seeds. The Cougars have become one of the nation's most consistent programs under Kelvin Sampson, while Arizona enters the season looking to build on last year's Final Four appearance. The Wildcats were also selected to win the conference in the preseason coaches poll, narrowly edging Houston. With both programs operating at an elite level, the race for the Big 12 championship should be outstanding.
Arizona is one of my picks to reach the 2027 Final Four. I really like the Wildcats' combination of talent, experience, and coaching, and I believe they have everything necessary to make another deep tournament run. While Houston may enter the season with the slightly higher national ranking, Arizona is a team I'm particularly confident in when looking ahead to March.
Kansas might be the most intriguing team in the conference, although I believe the Jayhawks are overrated entering the season. Bill Self welcomes highly touted freshman Tyran Stokes, one of the nation's premier incoming players, but I'm not convinced Kansas deserves its lofty preseason expectations. The Jayhawks certainly have the talent to compete near the top of the Big 12, but I need to see more before considering them a legitimate national championship contender. Iowa State should remain a serious threat under T.J. Otzelberger, while Texas Tech checks in as a No. 3 seed and gives the conference five teams projected among the nation's top 12 seeds.
The Big 12's depth extends well beyond its championship contenders. Cincinnati and Baylor earn No. 8 and No. 9 seeds, respectively, while BYU also checks in as a No. 9 seed. TCU rounds out the more comfortable tournament selections as a No. 10 seed. West Virginia and Oklahoma State are projected as No. 11 seeds, giving the conference several teams that will need to build strong résumés to secure their positions in March.
Arizona State and UCF are also worth watching, as both appear among the OCMM Next Four Out. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the Big 12 has a legitimate opportunity to send a double-digit number of teams to the field. The conference's strength should provide plenty of opportunities for quality victories, although the difficult league schedule could also make it challenging for bubble teams to separate themselves.
What makes the Big 12 particularly dangerous is its strength at the top. Houston, Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech all enter the season with the talent to make deep NCAA Tournament runs. While the SEC ranks slightly higher in overall conference efficiency, the Big 12 has an argument for possessing the nation's strongest group of championship contenders. Personally, I'm more confident in Arizona's ability to make a Final Four run than I am in Kansas living up to its preseason ranking.
OCMM Outlook: The Big 12 opens the season as the nation's second-ranked conference, with 11 teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Houston leads the way as a No. 1 seed, while Arizona, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech provide tremendous strength at the top. Arizona is one of my early Final Four selections, while Kansas is a team I believe could fall short of expectations. Arizona State and UCF give the conference additional opportunities to increase its bid total. The Big 12 should be one of the most competitive leagues in the country and could send multiple teams deep into March.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Big Ten enters the 2026–27 season ranked third nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +18.68, the conference once again boasts tremendous depth and figures to be a major factor in the NCAA Tournament. The initial OCMM bracket projection has 12 Big Ten teams in the field, demonstrating just how competitive the league should be from top to bottom.
Illinois leads the way as a No. 1 seed in the initial OCMM projection, followed by Michigan State as a No. 2 seed and Nebraska as a No. 4 seed. The Fighting Illini enter the season with legitimate national championship aspirations, while Nebraska looks to build on its recent success and establish itself as a consistent presence near the top of the Big Ten standings.
One team I believe is overrated entering the season is Michigan State. There's no questioning Tom Izzo's Hall of Fame credentials, but the Spartans haven't reached the Final Four since 2019. While Michigan State has enjoyed recent tournament success, including an Elite Eight appearance in 2025, I'm not convinced the Spartans deserve the lofty expectations that come with a No. 2 seed. They'll need to prove they're capable of taking that next step before I'm completely sold.
The conference's depth becomes apparent throughout the middle seed lines. Ohio State and Purdue earn No. 6 seeds, while UCLA and Michigan both check in as No. 7 seeds. The combination of established programs and emerging contenders should make the conference race particularly interesting.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, I believe Wisconsin is once again being underrated. The Badgers enter the initial OCMM projection as a No. 11 seed, but Greg Gard has developed a reputation for getting more out of his teams than preseason expectations suggest. Wisconsin has consistently found ways to compete near the top of the Big Ten, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Badgers comfortably improve their tournament position as the season progresses.
The Big Ten's projected tournament field also includes USC as a No. 9 seed, along with Minnesota, Iowa, and Indiana as No. 11 seeds. Several of these teams enter the season near the tournament bubble, but the expanded 76-team field creates additional opportunities for the conference to earn bids. The challenge will be separating themselves in a league where quality wins should be available almost every night.
One of the more interesting storylines will be whether the Big Ten can translate its impressive regular-season depth into postseason success. With Illinois leading the way and several other programs capable of making deep runs, the conference should have plenty of opportunities to compete for a national championship.
OCMM Outlook: The Big Ten opens the season as the nation's third-ranked conference, with 12 teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Illinois leads the way as a No. 1 seed, while Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, Ohio State, UCLA, and Michigan provide considerable depth. However, I'm skeptical that Michigan State will live up to its preseason expectations, and I believe Wisconsin will finish considerably stronger than its initial No. 11 seed suggests. The Big Ten should once again be one of the most competitive conferences in college basketball.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Big East enters the 2026–27 season ranked fourth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +17.66, the conference remains one of college basketball's strongest leagues, featuring a combination of established national contenders and programs looking to return to prominence.
Connecticut leads the way in the initial OCMM bracket projection, earning a No. 3 seed. The Huskies have established themselves as one of the nation's premier programs under Dan Hurley and once again appear positioned to compete for a conference championship and make a deep NCAA Tournament run. St. John's follows as a No. 6 seed, while Creighton and Villanova both earn No. 8 seeds. The conference's depth should make for another competitive regular-season race.
Marquette and Providence round out the Big East's six projected NCAA Tournament teams. Marquette checks in as a No. 9 seed, while Providence earns a No. 11 seed. I have a feeling Marquette is going to be better than the preseason projections suggest. The Golden Eagles have established a strong identity under Shaka Smart, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them outperform their initial ranking and work their way into the upper tier of the conference. Marquette is one of the teams I'll be watching closely as the season develops.
The Big East also has opportunities to exceed its initial six-bid projection. DePaul opens the season among the OCMM First Four Out, while Xavier is listed in the Next Four Out. Both programs are close enough to the projected field to make the conference's NCAA Tournament picture even more interesting. With the tournament expanding to 76 teams, the Big East has a realistic opportunity to send seven or even eight teams to March Madness.
OCMM Outlook: The Big East opens the season as the nation's fourth-ranked conference, with six teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Connecticut leads the way, followed by St. John's, Creighton, Villanova, Marquette, and Providence. DePaul and Xavier are positioned just outside the field, while Marquette is my pick to outperform preseason expectations. The Big East should once again be one of the most competitive conferences in the country.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Atlantic Coast Conference enters the 2026–27 season ranked fifth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +15.46, the ACC has plenty of talent at the top, but its overall depth trails the SEC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Big East.
I'll admit that seeing the ACC ranked fifth is disappointing. I've always viewed the ACC as one of college basketball's premier conferences, and while the league has certainly experienced some ups and downs in recent years, it's still frustrating to see it sitting behind four other conferences. The talent is there, particularly at the top, but the ACC needs more consistent performances from its middle and lower-tier programs to regain its place among the nation's elite.
Duke leads the way as the nation's No. 1 team in the preseason KenPom rankings and earns a No. 1 seed in the initial OCMM bracket projection. The Blue Devils are the clear conference favorite and enter the season with national championship expectations. Virginia and Louisville provide the strongest competition, earning No. 4 and No. 5 seeds, respectively, while Miami (FL) checks in as a No. 6 seed. All three programs have the talent to challenge Duke and potentially make deep NCAA Tournament runs.
I continue to believe Duke is the best team in the country, and I'm sticking with the Blue Devils as my pick to win the 2027 National Championship. It's a position I've held throughout the preseason, and nothing I've seen has changed my mind. Duke has the talent, coaching, and overall roster construction to make another serious run at a national title. While there will undoubtedly be challenges along the way, I expect the Blue Devils to be playing for a championship in April.
North Carolina and Clemson round out the ACC's projected tournament field, both earning No. 10 seeds. The Tar Heels enter the season looking to establish themselves under new head coach Michael Malone, while Clemson hopes to continue its recent run of NCAA Tournament appearances. Both teams have opportunities to improve their seeding, but neither enters the season with much room for error.
The conference's biggest opportunity may come from its bubble teams. NC State opens the season among the OCMM First Four Out, while SMU appears in the Next Four Out. Both programs are within striking distance of the tournament field and could help the ACC exceed its initial six-bid projection. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the league should have additional opportunities to strengthen its representation in March.
OCMM Outlook: The ACC opens the season as the nation's fifth-ranked conference, with six teams projected into the NCAA Tournament. Duke leads the way as a No. 1 seed and remains my pick to win the national championship. Virginia, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina, and Clemson round out the projected field, while NC State and SMU give the conference two additional teams capable of pushing the ACC toward eight bids. Despite my disappointment in the ACC's overall ranking, I still believe the conference has the nation's best team in Duke.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Pac-12 returns to the college basketball landscape in 2026–27 with a dramatically different look, ranking sixth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +10.92, the rebuilt conference immediately establishes itself as the strongest league outside the traditional power conferences.
The addition of Gonzaga gives the Pac-12 an established national powerhouse and a legitimate contender for a deep NCAA Tournament run. The Bulldogs enter the season ranked No. 14 nationally in KenPom and earn a No. 4 seed in the initial OCMM bracket projection. Gonzaga will be the clear favorite, but the conference should provide considerably more competition than the Bulldogs regularly faced in the West Coast Conference.
San Diego State, Utah State, Boise State, and Colorado State bring recent NCAA Tournament experience to the conference, giving the Pac-12 a solid foundation of established programs. Oregon State and Washington State also provide continuity from the previous version of the league. The challenge will be determining which programs can separate themselves from the pack and build strong enough résumés to earn at-large consideration.
Perhaps the biggest surprise in the initial projection is that Gonzaga is the conference's only tournament team. Utah State is among the First Four Out, suggesting the Pac-12 is close to earning a second bid. With the expanded 76-team tournament, the conference has an opportunity to establish itself as a consistent multi-bid league, particularly if its top teams perform well during nonconference play.
OCMM Outlook: The Pac-12 enters its inaugural season in this new configuration ranked sixth nationally, with Gonzaga projected as a No. 4 seed and the conference's automatic qualifier. Utah State is the strongest early candidate for an additional bid, while San Diego State, Boise State, and Colorado State could also work their way into the NCAA Tournament conversation. The league has the potential to exceed its initial one-bid projection and become a significant factor in March.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Atlantic 10 enters the 2026–27 season ranked seventh nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +5.45, the A-10 continues to establish itself as one of the strongest conferences outside the traditional power leagues and enters the season with legitimate hopes of earning multiple NCAA Tournament bids.
VCU and Saint Louis lead the way in the initial OCMM bracket projection, giving the conference two projected NCAA Tournament teams. VCU earns a No. 10 seed, while Saint Louis checks in as a No. 12 seed. Both programs have the opportunity to build strong postseason résumés, although the competition throughout the conference should make the regular-season race interesting.
Dayton is another team to keep a close eye on, as the Flyers enter the season just outside the initial OCMM tournament field. With a strong tradition of competing near the top of the Atlantic 10, Dayton could challenge VCU and Saint Louis for conference supremacy and emerge as another legitimate at-large contender.
The biggest question for the Atlantic 10 is whether it can consistently produce multiple at-large contenders. The expanded 76-team NCAA Tournament creates additional opportunities for leagues like the A-10, but nonconference success will be critical. With several competitive programs capable of challenging the favorites, the conference has an opportunity to improve its national standing and potentially exceed its initial two-bid projection.
OCMM Outlook: The Atlantic 10 opens the season as the nation's seventh-ranked conference, with VCU and Saint Louis projected into the NCAA Tournament. Dayton is not far behind and could push the conference's total to three bids if the Flyers build a strong enough résumé throughout the season.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The Mountain West enters the 2026–27 season ranked eighth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +4.58, the conference remains one of the stronger leagues outside the traditional power conferences, despite significant changes to its membership.
The departures of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Utah State to the Pac-12 have reshaped the Mountain West. New Mexico now finds itself in a position to lead the conference, with the Lobos earning a No. 12 seed and the automatic bid in the initial OCMM bracket projection.
The biggest question for the Mountain West is whether it can maintain its recent reputation as a multi-bid conference. Grand Canyon and UNLV are among the programs looking to challenge New Mexico, while Nevada provides additional competition. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the opportunity exists for a second Mountain West team to earn an at-large bid, but the conference will need strong nonconference performances to establish its postseason credentials.
OCMM Outlook: The Mountain West opens the season as the nation's eighth-ranked conference, with New Mexico projected to capture the automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Grand Canyon, UNLV, and Nevada will be worth watching as potential challengers, but the league currently projects as a one-bid conference until another team establishes a stronger at-large résumé.
2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview
The American Athletic Conference enters the 2026–27 season ranked ninth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +2.75, the AAC remains one of the stronger leagues outside the traditional power conferences, although the conference faces questions about its ability to produce multiple NCAA Tournament bids.
Memphis has traditionally been one of the league's most recognizable programs, but the Tigers enter the season with something to prove. Wichita State leads the AAC in the initial OCMM bracket projection, earning a No. 13 seed and the conference's automatic bid. The Shockers will look to establish themselves at the top of a competitive conference race.
The biggest challenge for the American is developing a legitimate at-large contender. South Florida and Memphis appear to be the league's strongest candidates to challenge for an at-large bid, and both will need strong nonconference performances to build tournament-worthy résumés. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the additional at-large opportunities could give the AAC a better chance of sending multiple teams to March Madness.
OCMM Outlook: The American opens the season as the nation's ninth-ranked conference, with Wichita State representing the league in the initial NCAA Tournament projection. While the AAC currently projects as a one-bid conference, South Florida and Memphis are the most likely candidates to push that total higher.
2026–27 Preseason Conference
The West Coast Conference enters a new era in 2026–27 following the departures of Gonzaga and Washington State to the Pac-12. Without perennial powerhouse Gonzaga, the WCC faces the challenge of establishing a new identity, but the league still has enough quality to rank 10th nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings.
Santa Clara leads the way, earning a No. 12 seed in the initial OC March Madness bracket projection. The Broncos have an opportunity to emerge as the conference's new standard-bearer, although the race for the regular-season championship figures to be more competitive without Gonzaga dominating the conversation.
The WCC enters the season with an average KenPom adjusted efficiency margin of +1.12, placing it just behind the American Athletic Conference. While Santa Clara is the only team projected into the NCAA Tournament in the initial OCMM bracket, the conference has the potential to produce additional postseason contenders.
OCMM Outlook: The WCC opens the season as the nation's 10th-ranked conference, with Santa Clara projected to capture its automatic NCAA Tournament bid. The biggest question is whether the league can develop another legitimate at-large contender in the post-Gonzaga era.
It seems like football just started but we are less than 5 weeks away from the 1st game of the College Basketball season. The first game of the season is Sunday, November 1 as Villanova plays Notre Dame in Rome, Italy. That is followed by a 24 hour marathon on November 2 starting with High Point vs Liberty at 12:01am.
The blog will be up and running for the 2026-2027 season. Season Previews will be coming soon and my Bracketology file has already been updated to account for, sigh, 76 teams.
Thoughts on the weekend include the vast difference of how the national champion won the title. A complete beatdown of one of the best teams in the nation in a game that was breathtaking for the ease at which Michigan dismantled whatever Arizona tried doing. Then, finding a way to win getting dragged into the mud by UConn, whose game plan was simple and effective. How Michigan won last night versus Saturday is so stark, that it’s a true testament to what a good basketball team they were.
Quick aside, Danny Hurley is a certifiable lunatic but great for the sport. What a brilliant coaching job getting this team to the title game and being in it to the end. As long as he’s at UConn, they’ll always be a threat.
I’ve seen some talk of this Michigan team being an all-timer. The numbers certainly support it but as I wrote a month back or so, roster construction has widened the gap between good and elite. I think comparing this team to Villanova of ‘18 or Kentucky of ‘12 or UNC of ‘09 isn’t fair. Different rules and simply put, a different era.
That gets to the crux of the state of the sport. The Big 18 and SEC are widening the gap between themselves and the rest of the conferences. I don’t think this is a one-off. Forget the TV money, the rich alum, especially in the Big 18 are going to have such an advantage on the rest of the sport, I’m not sure how the Big XIIIIII, ACC and Big East compete against the deeper pockets.
Now, each league will have teams with big budgets. Duke and Carolina will never be outbid for players. Nor will Kansas. Texas Tech has oil money pouring into the athletic department but I think the bigger picture is, most members of those leagues are facing uphill battles.
Cincinnati and Xavier could compete against Ohio State in Ohio but the money cannon in Columbus dwarfs those schools. Iowa State is staring straight down a rejuvenated Iowa whose alum base and money is far greater. You get the point. It’s going to take a lot of pieces to fit for some of these schools to compete at that level. Coach, university alignment, alum willing to match what the money schools can and so on.
Money has always been the dominant factor in college athletics. Duke has been bathing in Nike money for decades. It matters. It won’t happen because the SEC and Big 18 won’t let it, but collective bargaining is the answer. It’s a new era and that era is going to be dominated by the Evil Empire, the Big 18 and to a lesser extent, it’s apprentice, the SEC.
Read this and make some cash.
No reseeding this year. I haven’t looked but I bet 68 out of 68 teams correctly picked by bracketologists was at an all-time high. And while there are quibbles about where teams were located and some seeding quibbles, I don’t have a lot of complaints.
A few bold predictions (Do I believe them? Maybe):
1. No 4 or 5 seeds lose in round 1. The 12’s and 13’s are historically bad this year and it’ll be chalky Thursday and Friday.
2. People keep saying Duke has the hardest path of the 1-seeds but neither UConn or Michigan State make the Sweet 16 alleviating some stress and while I have the 4 and 5 surviving, they aren’t real threats to Duke.
3. East sleeper is Northern Iowa. Yes, that’s a 12-seed but if there is a 12-seed that makes noise, it’s them.
4. The South is interesting in that Houston could have a home game against Florida in the regional final but it won’t matter as St. Mary’s knocks off the Cougars in round 2 and make the regional final.
5. Nebraska wins a tournament game and makes the Sweet 16. If they beat Florida in that round, St. Mary’s makes the Final 4. If Florida beats Nebraska, they make the Final 4.
6. The Midwest feels like the chaos region. Michigan loses in round 2 to either Georgia or SLU. Santa Clara shocks Iowa State.
7. Miami beats SMU and then beats Tennessee but loses to eventual Final 4 participant Virginia. Texas Tech makes the regional final without Toppin.
8. The West is maybe wild. Purdue loses in round 2. Way too much being made of the Big 18 Tournament. Trendy picks based on conference tournament runs are very boom or bust and I’m betting this is a bust.
9. Arkansas/Wisconsin/High Point matchups yield a game where both teams hit 100. Seeing a lot of complaining about Wisconsin’s seed, location and tip time. Poor babies having to travel all the way to Portland and play at 10:50 local time and only having 4 days off. Hope they can handle such adversity. 🙄
10. Final 4 is Duke, Arizona, Florida and Virginia. Duke beats Arizona for the title
Things that won’t surprise me:
1. All 1-seeds make the Final 4
2. I’m completely wrong on the 12 + 13 prediction and that is blown up completely by the end of play Thursday.
3. Big 18 and SEC lays an egg. Big 18 has a problem and that problem is the awful officiating within the league. It is arguably one of the biggest disservices to them when it comes to March. The officiating in Chicago last week was abhorrent. The SEC doesn’t have any elite teams outside Florida.
4. On the other end, the Big XIIIIII has half the Elite 8.
5. All 14-seeds make the 3-seeds sweat in round one and 2 of the 15-seeds take 2-seeds to the wire but ultimately, no upsets.
See y’all soon.
The day of Selection is upon us. There are 5 games left in the regular season and it appears only 1 viable bid stealer is still hanging around. I'm looking at you Dayton. Texas and SMU will be watching on tightly as they are the two most likely to be cut. Should be a fun day of basketball. Final bracket soon.
Lots of solid action yesterday as the conference tournaments wind down. 11 Bids go out today and there are a lot of 1 vs 2 seeds. It should make for some great action later tonight. The day starts out this morning with UMBC vs Vermont and ends with Cal Baptist vs Utah Valley. It will be a great day to sit, relax, and watch some basketball.
Those who won't be relaxing are SMU, Texas, and Missouri. I have all 3 team in right now but there are some bid stealers still alive. The biggest one today is San Diego State, who is my first team out. They play Utah State in the Mountain West Championship and a win there will push out a team. Right now I'm leaning Texas but it's worth a second or third look.
Other bid stealers out there are from the A-10 and SEC. Mississippi is streaking and would need to beat Arkansas today and probably Florida tomorrow. Not impossible but not likely either. The A-10 has St. Joseph's vs VCU and Dayton vs Saint Louis. Dayton or St. Joe's could take a spot up with 2 wins.
A new Bracket will come out later today but until then, enjoy the games
Miami OH lost yesterday and that will shrink the bubble by 1 spot. I really believe they are safe and are probably not even in the play in game. I hope the committee doesn't so something stupid and leave them out. With that loss, Akron moves into the bracket slotting as a 12 seed. This does 2 things to the current bracket. First South Florida moves up to an 11 seed and second, San Diego State falls out. My last 4 teams in are now:
VCU, Texas , SMU, and Missouri
VCU still has games left but the other 3 are done.
On the outside of the bubble my first four out are:
Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, and Oklahoma
Auburn is done but the other 3 all have games left and could get an auto-bid. It's not unthinkable that any 3 of those teams could make their conference final and sneak in as well. I hope Auburn's 17-16 record is too much for the committee to swallow.
Outside of those teams I think the only other bid stealers out there are Seton Hall in the Big East, and any team not named VCU or Saint Louis in the A-10. I suppose Nevada could also get the Auto-bid in the Mountain West too. Their resume would be bubble worthy when the NCAA expands to 76 teams, sigh
As I mentioned in the earlier post, the bubble is getting very small and there aren’t a lot of games that will have an impact. There are some so let’s highlight the day games.
Umass vs Miami OH – I really shouldn’t have to put this here,
but the committee can and will be dumb.
Kentucky vs Missouri – Mizzou is one of my last 4 in. If they lose and Auburn wins it might be bad
for one of the Tigers.
Creighton vs Seton Hall – I took another look at the Pirates
resume and I just don’t see it. But, I
already typed this out.
Auburn vs Tennessee – If we ignored actual wins and losses
this team’s metrics puts them in easily.
UCF, Ohio State, and NC State appear to be safe but best not
lose by 20+ this morning.
The bubble is clearing up after yesterday’s games which saw only 2 teams currently out of the bracket win. Those wins came from Auburn and Oklahoma while California, Indiana, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Boise State, and Oklahoma State all lost. At this point I really believe those teams are eliminated. That being said I’m not sure Auburn and Oklahoma have done enough to get in.
On the right side of the bubble, both NC State and UCF won
while Texas and SMU lost. NC State and UCF
will move to lock status. Texas and SMU
appear to still be in the bracket but bid stealers are coming for them. Also, any of the last remaining teams with an
at-large chance may be able to leapfrog them.
Those teams include the Auburn and Oklahoma as well as New Mexico.
Congrats to McNeese State, Lehigh, and Idaho on getting
their auto-bids. Conference
Championships are done until Saturday
Northwestern vs Indiana – The Hoosiers need this and
more. I have a feeling they lose this
and are done.
BYU vs West Virginia – This would be another Q1 win for West
Virginia and then suddenly their resume looks a whole lot better
California vs Florida State – California needs this win to
get back into the conversation
Mississippi vs Texas – Texas is probably safe…probably
Oklahoma State vs TCU – TCU is in; Oklahoma State needs a lot
of help.
South Carolina vs Oklahoma – The Sooners are suddenly on the radar. Their resume doesn’t look any different than the rest of the usual suspects.
SMU vs Louisville – SMU is an 11 seed and sitting right on the bye/play in game cut line. A win and I think they are safe. A loss and they have to sweat it out.
Cincinnati vs UCF – UCF is probably ok but it’s best not to
tempt fate. Cincinnati needs this one and more
Mississippi State vs Auburn – Auburn…still the first team
out. I hope they get blown out.
Pittsburgh vs NC State – NC State is closer to the bubble
than most think and a loss here hurts their resume. Win and they should
be good.
MAC
#1 Seed -Miami OH
Miami runs the regular season and I don’t care if you are a SWAC team, if you go through the regular season without losing you deserve a bid. Selfishly I want Akron to win the bid so we can have two capable MAC teams in the tournament. Wouldn’t it be funny for both to make it and then Akron go to the Sweet Sixteen? The pick is Akron
Ivy
#1 Seed -Yale
Just going to get this one out of the way. Yale is a 12 seed and capable of an upset
next week. The pick is Yale.
Tournament Bids:
Congrats to Hofstra, Wright State, LIU, Siena, and Gonzaga on punching their tickets to the Big Dance. Three more bids go out today.
Southland - #1 SFA vs #2 McNeese St - both teams will give a 5 seed trouble. I'm just hoping for a good game and an upset next week
Patriot - #2 Lehigh vs #4 Boston - time for a Lehigh Victory Platter. Welcome to the play in game
Big Sky - #4 Montana vs #7 Idaho - I think we both predicted this conference tournament would be a mess. Montana is a little better than Idaho but not by much
Bubble Winners:
SMU, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State. SMU might be a lock now but it's still close. Cincinnati and Oklahoma State are still a couple wins from getting into the bracket.
Bubble Losers:
Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Santa Clara - The Broncos should be good but I've seen the committee make a lot of dumb decisions. Put a fork in Stanford and Virginia Tech because they are done.
MEAC
#1 Seed – Howard
Howard is 100 points higher than then next team according to
KenPom. I think they roll to a play in
game. The pick is Howard
Mountain West
#1 Seed -Utah State
Utah State is the 1 seed but they have been up and down
lately. I think the Mountain West is
going to go bonkers and send a team not even in the discussion as the
auto-bid. It could be Colorado State or
Nevada but I’m going with Boise State.
Big East
#1 Seed -St. John’s
The Big East is way down this year and Marquette was able to
knock UConn of the top of the league with a great game on Saturday morning. St. John’s has been playing better outside of
the 30 point defeat to Connecticut. Do
they get their revenge? No, the pick is
UConn.
Big West
#1 Seed -UC-Irvine
The Big West is dragged down a little by the bottom 3 teams
but that allowed for a solid mix of teams at the top. The 1 seed is Irvine, outlasting Hawaii by 1
game. The middle of the pack can do some
damage this tournament and UC San Diego won 6 of their last 7. Getting hot at the right time makes a difference. The pick is UCSD.
WAC
#1 Seed -Utah Valley
Man, how the WAC has fallen.
Utah Valley is the 1 seed but Cal Baptist is right there. Cal Baptist has been a team of streak, Win 7
to start the season, lost 3 in a row, won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row. Followed that up with 9 wins, then 2 losses, then
finished on a 4 game win streak. I think
that continues. Cal Baptist is the pick
A-10
#1 Seed – Saint Louis
Saint Louis is just 3-3 in their last 6 while VCU has been
surging. George Mason just beat Saint
Louis by 30 and George Washington has been solid all season. Dayton, the preseason pick to win the
conference finished 4th behind St. Joseph’s. I don’t think Saint Louis has enough to pull
out a 3 game win streak. St. Joseph’s
13-3 in their last 16, peaking at the right time. St. Jospeh’s for the win and the A-10 is
suddenly a 3 bid league.
SEC
#1 Seed -Florida
Florida is HOT. They
stay HOT. The pick is Florida.
American
#1 Seed -South Florida
Tulsa finished 2nd but lost to South Florida
twice. What’s the saying about beating a
team 3 times in a season? I don’t
remember but Memphis is terrible. The pick is South Florida.
Stanford - Currently my last team in but I'm not very confident in them. They have Pitt early today and need this and tomorrow for sure. Might even need a big upset on Thursday.
Cincinnati - Good resume numbers but overall not so hot. 2 win minimum and like Stanford, that may not be enough.
SMU - Some places have them out but I still think they are on e of the last 4 in. No room for error and need to get a big win over Syracuse today.
Virginia Tech - Might need the auto-bid but the bubble is so bad we keep an eye on them. A run to the ACC final would at least provide some Q1 wins.
Oklahoma State - I have them in my notes but I'm not sure they can get in without the bid.
Congrats to Troy and Furman on Picking up Bids last night. 5 (4) bids go out tonight.
Coastal - #3 Hofstra vs #4 Monmouth - Kurly pegged Hofstra to start the tournament; I think he's right
Horizon - #1 Wright State vs #3 Detroit - Wright State finishes the job and into a 15 seed.
MAAC - #1 Merrimack vs #3 Siena - this is setting up nicely for Gerry McNamara ascend to the Syracuse job
WCC - #1 Gonzaga vs #3 Santa Clara - Santa Clara should be a lock now. Gonzaga wins this on the way out the WCC door.
NEC - Long Island already gets the bid since Mercyhurst isn't eligible.
AAC-
It’s a league. It’s actually worse in KenPom than the Valley. Woof. Anyway, they’re playing this in Birmingham. It’s a 1-bid league. USF won the regular season title and are 52 in KenPom. T-2 was Tulsa and Wichita State. Tulsa is 58 and the Shockers are 88 in KenPom.
South Florida is the pick. They lost 3 league games by a combined 5 points and 2 of them in overtime. They roll in on a 9-game win streak as well.
A-10
I think this is a 2-bid league. SLU and VCU are the 2-bids as they shared the regular season title. If that’s the case, this is a bid thief league.
It’s pretty well-balanced in the middle and one of them could certainly win this. In fact, I’ll pick Dayton to thieve a bid just to make it interesting on Sunday.
Big East
3-bid league. Could be a bid thief league, though. Pretty muddled from 4-11 and I’m not sure how you can have a lot of faith in the top-3.
I’ll pick UConn to win it but won’t be surprised if something dumb happens here.
Big West
Playing this in Henderson, NV. As always, this is a solid mid-major who can send a team to the dance and make someone sweat. UC-Irvine won the league and is 106 in KenPom.
UC-San Diego is 113, Hawaii is 115 and UC-Santa Barbara is 126 in KenPom. They all own wins over Irvine. Irvine has the 5th best effective fg% defense in the nation. Kyle Evans is a great shot blocker. UCSB is 21st in 3-point shooting nationally. I say it’s one of these 2 but I’ll take Irvine cuz I have to make a pick.
MEAC
Play-in league. Howard won the league and is 202 in KenPom. No one else is top-300. It’s Howard and head coach Kenny Blakeney who fits the March Duke motif.
Mountain West
Kind of a bittersweet week in Vegas for the Mountain West. The Frankenstein Pac-12 pilfers a chunk of this league beginning next year. It’ll be ok, but adding UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State doesn’t really move the needle. NDSU will be fine but doesn’t cover the losses.
Focusing on this season, Utah State won the regular season title and are 35th in KenPom. They should be a lock. San Diego State and New Mexico are bubbly and need a big week. I think both are out barring a deep run.
This is thievery territory. Utah State is the best team but not a lock. I’ll pick New Mexico to steal a bid here.
SEC
Auburn is somehow on the bubble and need a big week. Need Mississippi State to treat them like Kristi Noem treats dogs. Think that covers the bubble here.
The pick is Florida. Every other team is squarely meh.
WAC
7 lousy teams in this league! Well, not lousy teams, but only 7 lousy teams! Utah Valley won the league and is 90th in KenPom. Cal Baptist finished 2nd and is 112th in KenPom.
Utah Valley is the pick because no one wants to be around baptists.
Big 12
#1 Seed – Arizona
The Wildcats are the 1 seed but there are land minds all
through the bracket. There are 3-4 Final
Four contenders here and any team that gets this auto-bid will have pumped up
their resume. It’s hard to see Arizona
lose but I’m picturing Iowa State getting hot or Houston getting there. The pick for now is the Cougars
ACC
#1 Seed – Duke
The injury bug has finally got to Duke and it’s more than
likely they are without 2 starters for the Acc Tournament. They have more than enough firepower to win
but the question is do you really want to have the other players average 36 minutes
a game. Darren Harris is suddenly very
important. No other team really scares me,
so the pick remains Duke.
Conference USA
#1 Seed – Liberty
Liberty takes the one seed but has looked subpar the past
couple weeks, losing 3 of their last 5.
According to KenPom Sam Houston State is more likely to win this but 5
teams sit around 50 points lower. Middle
Tennessee State has won their last 5 and hit the tournament hot. The Pick is Middle Tennessee State.
Big 18
#1 Seed – Michigan
I would of liked to see Michigan State win on Sunday just so
more people pick them to go to the Final Four.
That team is garbage and Jeremy Fears is dirtier than Grayson
Allen. He’s kicked a guy in the nuts 3
or 4 times this season, if not just in the 2026 calendar year. I think Wisconsin and Illinois can push Michigan,
but I don’t see Michigan ending with a loss here. The pick is Michigan
Two bids go out tonight and one Conference kicks off it's tournament.
Southern:
#6 Furman vs #1 ETSU - ETSU survived a scare this weekend but are ready to grab a 14 seed should they get the job done tonight
Sun Belt
#10 Georgia Southern vs #1 Troy - I bet this is going to be a good game and not a normal 1 vs 10. I'm calling for the upset.
SWAC
#1 Seed - Bethune Cookman
BC is the top seed and even if they win all games by a million they are a 16 seed. They at least have a top 20 NCSOS. That might be enough to keep them out of the play-in games. The Pick is Bethune Cookman.
ACC-
ACC has probably seen its bubbles burst? VA Tech lost an opportunity against UVA. Stanford beat NC State, maybe moving up the bubble? Get to the semifinals and we’ll talk.
The pick is Duke unless they’re bored and then I’ll pick Miami
Big XIIIIII
Bubbles are Ok State and Cincinnati who both lost Saturday. Cincinnati and UCF likely play on Wednesday. Big game. Tech and ISU could use a good week.
The pick is Arizona
Big 18
Wisconsin is elevating, Illinois and Purdue are sinking. Bracket isn’t set yet because the league is arrogant and needs as much TV time as possible all to their own. I hate this league so much. Go independent, Blue.
The pick is Wisconsin
CUSA
Finally, a tournament that really means something. Tournament is held in Huntsville and Liberty in the regular season champion. However, they’ve lost 3 of 5. Sam Houston St. finished 2nd and is 8 spots better in KenPom.
Sam Houston is 14th in the nation in 3-pt shooting while Liberty is 5th. Liberty just beat them to close the regular season.
Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee and Louisiana Tech all tied for 3rd. Tech is the best defense in the league but brutal on offense. They play Middle Tennessee in the quarters with the winner getting Liberty.
I can’t pick Liberty, a disgraceful university, so I’ll take Sam Houston State but pulling for Louisiana Tech
Southland-
From Lake Charles, the Southland begins their conference tournament on Sunday. And I begin my golf season, so me and The Southland are best friends in March.
Stephen F. Austin won the regular season title, going 20-2. They get a bye to the semifinals like 2nd place finisher, McNeese State. McNeese is 67 in KenPom and SFA is 86. They split in the regular season with each game being close. McNeese has won 8 straight games.
Those two are prohibitive favorites. UT-Rio Grande Valley finished 3rd and are 125th in KenPom. Chorpus-Christi, my niece’s school finished 4th and are 179th in KenPom. The campus is on an island and she gets to go fishing daily. I’m jealous.
The pick is McNeese.
SWAC-
Play-in tournament for the play-in. The SWAC hosts their tournament in Atlanta. The league was actually much better this year than most. The league plays second fastest of any league in the country.
Bethune-Cookman won the league behind Reggie Theus. They set the tone early by taking Auburn to overtime to start the year to expose nepo baby Steven Pearl. They’re the only team with a winning record outside Alabama A&M but are 60 spots better in KenPom and swept them in the regular season. They’re the pick.
The Ohio Valley Conference Championship is tonight with #1 Tennessee State playing #2 Morehead State.
The first bid is upon us.
Four more bids will go out tomorrow, the Big South, Missouri Valley, A-Sun, and Summit.
As for the rest of the action, the biggest loser was Belmont, who lost to 9 seeded Drake. A good season ruined by 40 bad minutes of basketball. They don't have any high profile wins but their metrics aren't that far off from most of the bubble teams. They can't get in and that's a bummer. Bradley slides in as the current representative for the Missouri Valley.
Seton Hall lost which all but eliminates them from the Bubble Watch. West Virginia and San Diego State hang on and suddenly we need to look into UCF further to see how bad the metrics are after a couple of losses.
Last, Miami OH finished undefeated in the regular season and I think they are a lock no matter what they do in the conference tournament.
VCU at Dayton - VCU has one of my last bids and needs to keep winning
San Diego State vs UNLV - The Aztecs are one of the First Four out. A win and a VCU loss would be nice for them.
St. John's at Seton Hall - Seton Hall needs some big wins and just one won't do. This is 100% necessary
UCF at West Virginia - UCF is still OK but a win leaves them as a lock. West Virginia is technically still alive.
Miami OH at Ohio - I don't think Miami OH is on the bubble but win this and there's no question.
America East
#1 Seed – UMBC
The team that brought me so much joy years ago. The game where they beat Virginia is one of
those games that I wish I could go back and watch from start to finish without
knowing the outcome. Only UMBC and Vermont
are above 300 in KenPom. This is a play-in
game no matter who wins. Let’s pick
NJIT.
Big Sky
#1 Seed – Portland State
On the flip side of the KenPom numbers the Big Sky has 7
teams above 200. That’s remarkable in
comparison to the America East. Portland
State won the conference by 1 game but 5 more teams are only 2 games behind
that. This tournament is wide open, and
I would guess Montana State, while 2nd, is probably the favorite. Let’s get crazy here, the pick is 4 seeded Northern
Colorado.
Southland
#1 Seed – Stephen F. Austin
This was supposed to be McNeese State but Will Wade left and
took his dirty grimy hands to North Carolina State where he will fail year
after year until he’s fired since he’s only a good coach when he can
cheat. Well, that’s enough on that
tangent. SFA won the conference but I’m
willing to say McNeese is the favorite.
Each has 1 game and then they will meet in the Finals. The pick in McNeese St.
America East-
The America East tips Saturday. All games are on campus. UMBC won the league at 14-2 and is 200 in KenPom after starting the year at 296.
Perennial bracket buster favorite, Vermont, finished 2nd at 12-4 in league. They own 1 of 2 wins over Vermont and are 238 in KenPom. All other teams are sub-300. UMBC is the pick.
Big Sky-
Live from Boise, the Big Sky also tips Saturday. This league is much more fun than the AmEast. They actually have 4 teams with positive net ratings. Portland State won the league at 13-5 but is 3rd best in KenPom in the league and has lost 3 of 4.
Montana State finished 2nd and is 131st in KenPom. They own a win over St. Thomas and took Utah State to overtime. But, they also lost to a bad Oral Bob team.
Northern Colorado is in a logjam tying for 4th but has the second best KenPom number at 138. Northern Colorado beat regular Colorado in non-con.
Montana State is the most well-balanced of the 3 and are my pick. Do be mindful of Eastern Washington who have won 8 of 9 after starting the year at 5-17. Want to take a flyer on a losing team to make the dance, this might be your squad.
Southern
#1 Seed – East Tennessee State
ETSU are the clear number 1 team here but the next 5 teams
are either 11-7 or 10-8 in the conference.
ETSU can get a 15 seed but anybody else is probably a non-play in game
16 seed. Wofford, Mercer, and Furman have
also all had a bit of success in the tournament so the winner is live to at
least put up a fight. My pick is still
ETSU.
Coastal
#1 Seed – UNC-Wilmington
The Seahwaks are the top seed but this is a fairly open
tournament. Kurly has the Pride winning
it all and I cn see that happening. The
top 5 all have a chance and depending on who gets it will determine if they are
a 13 or 14 seed. I’d love to pick
William and Mary but ultimately I think Charleston get it done. The pick is Charleston
Winners:
Indiana, California, Ohio State, and Stanford
Ohio State remains in the bracket and may be moving out of the play in game. The are getting hot at the right time. Indiana and California are looking to move back in should somebody lose. Hint: New Mexico lost. Stanford remains way outside but they have a pulse.
Losers:
SMU, Texas, New Mexico, and USC
SMU and Texas are 95% safe but a loss still doesn't look good. New Mexico's loss gives an opening to Indiana or California. I haven't updated the metrics yet but it's going to be close. USC is done.
Bubble Tonight:
Nothing, Zip, Zylch, Nada. The negative side to getting good Friday night games during the season is the NCAA gave Thursday night to the women. Meh
CAA-
The Coastal, sigh, tips off Friday in D.C. UNC-Wilmington are the regular season champs, going 15-3 in league play and 26-5 overall. Head coach Takayo Siddle will be a hot name during the upcoming coaching cycle. They’re 99th in KenPom overall.
Charleston finished 2nd behind Chris Mack. The Cougars are 142nd in KenPom. 3rd place Hofstra is 92nd in KenPom, lead by Speedy Claxton.
The winner should be Hofstra or UNCW. UNCW could get a 12-13 seed and would be a good pick to pull off an upset. Hofstra isn’t a bad club and own wins over Pitt and Syracuse. They’ve won 8 of 9 but a 5-game losing streak to close January hurts the overall resume. I’ll pick UNCW but Hofstra has my attention.
SoCon-
What to make of the SoCon as the tourney tips from Asheville on Friday. East Tennessee State won the regular season title and is 141st in KenPom. Mercer finished tied 2nd and is 182nd. Samford tied them and is 208.
Usual contenders, Wofford and Furman aren’t the teams of the last decade. Wofford is 248 in KenPom while Furman is 203. UNC-Greensboro is 304 this year. Down year for the league.
I’ll take ETSU because Mercer doesn’t play any defense but I won’t be stunned to see some chicanery here.
Bubble In:
Ohio State at Penn State – Penn State can be feisty to Ohio
State better watch themselves on the road
Colorado State at New Mexico – Currently in the play in game
New Mexico needs every win available.
Bubble Out:
Minnesota at Indiana -
Some brackets actually have Indiana in.
They are in my next 4 out but could get there
California at Georgia Tech – Cal just fell out of the
bracket but have the metrics to get back in.
Can’t afford a loss
USC at Washington – If you want to roll with Chad Baker
-Mazara you get what you deserve and that’s not a bid
Stanford at Notre Dame – shockingly Stanford is still hanging
around
Winners:
Texas A&M - as predicted Kentucky lays an egg and the Aggies cruise to a victory
TCU - they are lock with the win at Texas Tech
VCU - remains in the hunt for an at-large bid
Auburn, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State, and Cincinnati - all
with wins to keep hope alive.
Losers:
San Diego St. - Boise State takes them out and it's time to double check their resume
West Virginia - put a fork in them
Clemson - the free fall continues
Kansas and BYU - I guess having the top 2 NBA prospects
isn't enough
Missouri Valley
#1 Seed – Belmont
Belmont is one Quad win away from being an actual At-Large
candidate. They were the best resume in
the Blind Resume post. Resume metrics
have them ahead of teams like Texas A&M and San Diego State. Predictive doesn’t like them as much. They are close but I don’t think they will
get an at-large if they lose during Arch Madness. Northern Iowa is going to be their toughest
test but I hope Belmont wins and takes a 5 seed down. The pick is Belmont.
Metro Atlantic
#1 Seed – Merrimack
Merrimack is the only team above 200 in KenPom and is the
only team from this conference that would be as high as a 15 seed. A couple teams can push Merrimack and I’m
going with Siena to get it done. Gerry
McNamara gets it done, wins a play in game as a 16 seed, then takes the
Syracuse job. The pick is Siena
West Coast
#1 Seed – Gonzaga
Another bracket that looks like a flying V. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s get byes to the
semi-finals. I’d love to see another
game between the these teams but Santa Clara is creeping around. I want 3 West Coast teams in the
Tournament. The pick: Santa Clara.
MAAC -
All of my favorite mid-majors start tourney play on Thursday. First up, the MAAC who will be in Atlantic City.
Only one team is top-200 in KenPom, Merrimack. They still have a negative AdjEM but won the league going 17-3. Want a crazy stat? Opponents have an offensive rebounding % of 40%.
There are 7 teams beside Merrimack at .500 or better in league. Feels like a wide open tourney. So, give me Siena and make that Gerry McNamara to Syracuse talk heat up.
Arch Madness
One of the best tournaments of the season happens in St. Louis where nothing good rarely happens. It’s been a better year in the Valley as mentioned in our Belmont piece. Of course, Belmont immediately lost after I wrote that, but they’re still 55th in KenPom and capable of shooting someone out of the Big Dance.
Bradley finished 2nd and Brian Wardle will probably have some opportunities to move up the food chain. Still, his Braves were 7th best in KenPom in the league. UNI who finished 6th is 80th in KenPom. Illinois State is 96th, UIC is 109 and Murray State is 117. Heck, Southern Illinois who finished .500 in the league is 114.
Should be a good show. I’ll pick UNI to pull the upset. I’d like to see Belmont but they’ve made me mad in the past by not busting brackets.
WCC
The last trip to Vegas as WCC members for the Zags. Kind of sad and everyone will want to see them lose. Do they pull a Syracuse who won their last trip to MSG or do the Zags bow out losers?
St. Mary’s is my pick. The Gaels are the best FT shooting team in the nation and are 9th best from 3. They rebound both sides of the glass and don’t foul. They’re also a young team. 337th in experience and they still went 27-4. I’ve been burned by them before but I might be mentally putting them into the Sweet 16 as of today. They have 2 7’ guys getting decent minutes.
Also, as discussed last week, Santa Clara is on bubble watch. Have to get to the title game. The Sendek Experience continues to run amok.
Bubble In:
