Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Bracketology - 1st of the Year

 And Bracketology is back!

1 seed vs 16 seed

Baylor (Big12) vs Campbell (BigSouth)/Nicholls St (Sland)

Duke (ACC) vs T.Southern (SWAC)/Howard (MEAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Liberty (Asun)

Purdue vs Princeton (Ivy)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Arizona vs Weber St (BigSky)

Michigan St (Big10) vs Texas St (Sbelt)

UCLA vs Navy (Pat)

Kansas vs UC-Irvine (BigWest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

USC (Pac12) vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Houston (AAC) vs Toledo (MAC)

LSU (SEC) vs Vermont (Aeast)

Villanova vs Wagner (NEC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Ohio St vs Towson (Col)

Iowa State vs Chatanooga (SoCon)

Tennessee vs Oakland (Hor)

Auburn vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Kentucky vs UAB (C-USA)

Alabama vs Iona (MAAC)

Seton Hall vs Davidson (A10)

Xavier vs Belmont (OVC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Texas vs S.Diego St/N'Western

Illinois vs Creighton/Miss St

Texas Tech vs St. Mary's

Uconn vs Arkansas

7 seed vs 10 seed

Loyola (Mvalley) vs Wake Forest

Providence (Beast) vs Virginia Tech

Colorado St(Mwest) vs San Francisco

Iowa vs Indiana

8 seed vs 9 seed

West Virginia vs Florida

Wisconsin vs UNC

BYU vs Oklahoma

Michigan vs Minnesota

First Four Out

Murray St

Fresno St

UCF

Utah State

Next Four Out

TCU

Cincinnati

DePaul

Clemson

Also Considered

Marquette

Monmouth

Memphis

St. Bonaventure

Louisville

Wyoming


Saturday, December 11, 2021

So, the ACC

The ACC is bad this year. It’s Duke and who knows. James Madison beat Virginia. DePaul went to Louisville and won last night. So, is the ACC historically bad or is this what the league is now? The results surprised me.

I looked at KenPom conference rankings for the last decade or so and this is what we found. I broke it down into 3 distinct periods.

Covid Years
2021-22 +12.17 5th in the nation 
2020-21 +13.22 5th in the nation
2019-20 +11.45 4th in the nation

Post-Expansion
2018-19 +15.33 3rd in the nation; National Champion Virginia
2017-18 +15.71 2nd in the nation
2016-17 +16.02 2nd in the nation; National Champion UNC
2015-16 +16.70 2nd in the nation; Runner-Up UNC, Syracuse Final 4
2014-15 +13.61 3rd in the nation; National Champion Duke
2013-14 +13.04 3rd in the nation 

Pre-Expansion (Limited to 3 years, post-Duke title)
2012-13 +11.09 6th in the nation 
2011-12 +10.02 5th in the nation
2010-11 +13.16 3rd in the nation

My thesis as I thought about this was expansion was a losing bet by the league. I think I’m wrong and it’s as simple as a covid-issue or the cyclical nature of sports. It’s simply possible the league is down. UNC is in a mini-reboot and Louisville is finally paying the price for its many transgressions. Syracuse is worth a closer case study and I doubt their long term prognosis post-Boeheim is good in the ACC.

Virginia is having its Maryland post-title hangover right now as well. It’s  possible and maybe likely they’ve peaked as a program under Tony Bennett. That’s not a shot at Bennett but it wouldn’t be the first time the mountain was climbed and there was no return.

The league has a lot of mediocrity right now and there’s an opportunity for someone to rise up and challenge Tobacco Road. Georgia Tech, Maryland and Wake Forest have done it in the past. I just don’t know who it is right now.

The 3 years prior to expansion weren’t great. The league was better post-expansion and for whatever reason has stagnated the last 3 years. It’s possible revenue is or becomes an issue that continues this stagnation. The ACC TV deal is dwarfed by what the Big 14 and SEC get. While that is seen as primarily a football dividing force, those leagues can afford better facilities and coaches. The league probably should be weary of being raided, despite contracts.

The ACC is in a weird spot. The basketball league, it’s bread and butter is having a bad year. Whatever the cause, it’s something that needs fixing sooner than later.

Friday, December 3, 2021

The Maryland Problem

Mark Turgeon stepped down as coach at Maryland today after a decade on the sideline. Turgeon replaced Gary Williams who had been at Maryland for 20 years.


The Terps were co-champs of the Big 14 in 2020, the highlight of the Turgeon era. Did you remember that? Don’t worry, most people didn’t. He also had one Sweet 16, back in 2016. That was the Terps only trip to the 2nd weekend since 2003.


Turgeon isn’t a bad coach. He was just a weird fit in Maryland. He took the the job before the move to the Big 14 and that had to change his approach to the job and it never seemed to have any momentum. He had success at Wichita State and Texas A&M and it seems plausible something along those lines will make sense in the future. It was reported he actually wanted the Marquette job this past summer.


The bigger issue in this story is what is Maryland basketball in 2021? Before the move to the Big 14, Maryland was what Virginia is now, the foil to the blue bloods of Tobacco Road. Though Virginia doesn’t play the “world (ACC offices) is against us” game, they’ve seemlessly replaced Maryland in the role of foil. 


In the Big 14, they’re just another faceless team. They have no natural rival. The pocketbooks are fatter but the program the school prided itself on is a nondescript entity playing against Penn State and Nebraska on a random weeknight. Maryland-Duke, Maryland-UNC was must see TV. Can you name one time Maryland was a must see game in the Big 14? The answer is no.


Maryland isn’t a blue blood but they broke through and won a title this century. Florida, UVA and Baylor have done the same. It’s a small fraternity to be part of. They seem further away from getting back there than ever. Maybe they shouldn’t compete for a title every year but they should matter. They haven’t in a long time and I’m not sure they will as long as they’re just another uniform in a league they don’t belong. 

Sunday, November 28, 2021

November OVERREACTIONS

 ACC:

Well, it’s Duke and a lot of okayish teams. The second best team has yet to emerge and at the bottom, Pitt is currently 199th in KenPom. Jeff Capel’s seat is hot enough to eject itself. The ACC is all about Duke this year. A gutsy win over Gonzaga on Friday night has Blue Devil fans with visions of glory and probably should have those. Paolo Banchero and Wendell Moore are a dynamic duo. The lack of 3-point shooting again is a potential problem and mystery in roster construction but they really protect the ball and are still 54th in effective fg%. Their the only contender from the ACC


Big East:

The Big East still looks like Villanova’s league but they have some depth issues that reared its head in losses to UCLA and Purdue. UConn could win the league. It’s between these two at the moment. The league needs to recruit better as there are a lot of one-and-done March teams. 


Big XII:

The Big XII is still setting the pace as the nation’s best league. Baylor doesn’t appear to have lost a step, though, their best win to date is over a flawed Michigan State team. Kansas will need to tighten up defensively.  The loss to Dayton is a head scratcher. This isn’t a very good Dayton team. Despite this, both KU and Baylor are legit contenders. Texas and Texas Tech profile early as second weekend teams. The rest of the league is good enough that there won’t be any easy outs.


SEC

My guess is Alabama’s loss to Iona won’t look terrible at the end of the year but it’s enough to give pause to overrating the Tide. At 23 in KenPom, that would make the Crimson Tide 7th best in the league! The top of the league is going to be a bloodbath. Whoever wins the regular season title will have earned it. Georgia and Missouri bring up the rear and are not good at all. Missouri has a home-loss to UMKC, 202nd in KenPom. Right now, the league doesn’t seem to have a legit threat to win it all but it’s going to be a damn fun regular season


Big 14

I might be wrong about how good Michigan is. Even in their wins, they’ve been unimpressive largely as they try and figure out what combos work. The good news for them is, Juwan Howard has proven adept at piecing the puzzle together. The best team in the league is Purdue and they are a legit title contender. There are 10 teams in the KenPom top 50, including Wisconsin at 31 who have their best player non-Caucasian since Alando Tucker in Jonathan Davis. Sadly, they will be a factor. I’m not sold on Maryland but Northwestern looks like a potential tourney team. 10 teams from this league in March is a legit thing. Minnesota and Nebraska are 100 and 103 in KenPom, the two worst teams. It won’t surprise me if they each stea a game or two that surprises people. Purdue and Michigan are title contenders but I’m going to be surprised if that is the case for Michigan on January 1.


Pac-12:

UCLA had a nice win over Villanova and then got destroyed by Gonzaga. They still project as a title contender but that Zags game was a beat down. Arizona of all teams, is the 2nd best in the league right now. Tommy Lloyd has come in blazing. They blew out Michigan after surviving Wichita State in overtime. The other 4 wins are over cupcakes but this is the kind of start to the season the Wildcats needed. USC looks like a second weekend team, as well. The league drops off precipitously after that with Oregon checking in at 52 and they look a lot worse than that. That may have been a short lived Pac-12 renaissance.


The Rest:

- Good luck figuring out Houston. They let Wisconsin jump out to a 40-20 lead on them in Vegas and then almost won the game, and probably should have. KenPom really likes them and they’d be on my short list of title contenders based solely on numbers. The defense is legit. I wouldn’t trust the offense, however. A lot of Virginia vines.


- As stated before the season, the WCC is good outside Gonzaga. St. Mary’s gagged against Wisconsin in Vegas but that’ll happen in slow tempo games. They have 4 legit March teams and as always, the Zags can cut down the nets.


- Memphis is the 3 fastest team in the nation and has KenPom’s 3rd best defense. If the offense catches up to the defense, they’ll be a problem. There are a lot of minutes being used by inefficient freshman. Can Penny clean that up? Keep an eye on that

Wednesday, November 10, 2021

Day 1 Overreactions

1. The ACC might be bad again this year. The Citadel thumped Pitt and it wasn’t close. Pitt was within single-digits for less than 5 minutes. Jeff Capel’s seat is hot. Miami (OH) beat Georgia Tech in Atlanta. Navy won at Virginia despite being 15.5 point dogs. They hadn’t beaten a ranked opponent since David Robinson was there 30 plus years ago.

2. On a pleasant note, Duke did manage to beat Kentucky in Coach Al’s final trip to MSG. A case is being made they have the number 1 player in the next NBA draft in Paolo Banchero.

3. The other game at MSG saw Kansas mop the floor against Michigan State. Tom Izzo already has a technical on the young season and given how his defense looked, many more await. Kansas looks as deep as they’ve been in awhile. The Big XII may be for naught but the league should be a battle all season.

4. On the local side, Brad Davison got a flop warning 12 minutes into his 76th season, proving you can’t teach new tricks to old dogs. Marquette unveiled a new, pressure-based defense and looked uneven at best in beating SIUE who lost its exhibition opener to a DII school a week ago. Marquette managed to score 88 but teams that get them into the half court will have the advantage as the Golden Eagles lack any consistent outside scoring.  How they progress with such a radical change in coaching will be fascinating to watch. Patrick Baldwin had 21 in his Panthers debut as UWM defeated North Dakota. UWM will get more coverage this year than in any recent time with Baldwin on the roster.

5. Michigan has 51 at half. Moussa Diabate is a name to know.

Monday, November 8, 2021

Tomorrow The Season Begins!

The blog has been pretty quiet leading up to the season and that’s due to me spending more time coaching football than preparing for College Basketball.  I do plan on getting things going later in the year and Bracketology will start in 2022.

At this point I’d be guessing at who my preseason Final Four will be but I don’t think you can go wrong with Michigan, UCLA, and Gonzaga being 3 of the 4.  I assume the last team will be a wildcard but Duke would be a great story!

Sunday, November 7, 2021

Fearless and Bold 2021-22 Predictions Sure to be Wrong

The season starts this week. Probably time for some bold and fearless projections.


The Final Four

Michigan

Gonzaga 

Duke

Kansas 


National Title Game

Michigan over Gonzaga 


3 Teams That Might Be Overrated

Baylor 

Illinois

Kentucky 


3 Teams That Might Be Underrated


North Carolina

Indiana

Oregon


National Player of the Year

Hunter Dickinson, Michigan




Monday, October 18, 2021

2021-22 Early KenPom Analysis

KenPom updated yesterday and that means college basketball is right around the corner. What can we learn? Well, not much other than what leagues look potentially good, mediocre or bad. Let’s start with the teams.


The Top 10 looks familiar. Gonzaga, Michigan, Kansas, Baylor and Illinois are your top 5. Illinois surprises me but Cockburn, Curbelo and Frazier are a good 3 to start with. The top 10 is rounded out by Purdue, UCLA, Ohio State, Villanova and Duke. The rest of the top 20 has the usual suspects. Texas Tech at 12 with a new coach will be interesting and Memphis at 16 will be as well. Put up or shut up time for Penny. Maryland is 18 and Mark Turgeon needs some March success. At least in October, it looks like this team has a chance.


An astute reader would not the proliferation of Big 14 teams. There are 7 of them in the top 30 and Indiana is knocking at the door at 31. The league is going to be a bloodbath. I believe Michigan will be the team to cut down the nets next April to end the embarrassing stretch of no national champs at 21 years.


The ACC appears in for another down season. Duke checks in at 10 but you have to go to 24 for the next team in FSU and Notre Dame is the only other top 30 team at 27. Even KenPom darling Virginia is 45.


Something else that caught my attention was the WCC coming in at 7 in conference rankings. The 6th rated league as of pre-season is the Big East which is actually closer to then number 1 Big 14 than the 7 WCC but the league might be worth some late nights this winter. Sadly, it also shows how much of an uphill fight mid-majors have today. Still, it’s ahead of the American.


A deeper dive into the WCC shows the Zags at 1, no surprise but you also have San Fran at 34, BYU at 38 and St. Mary’s at 42. LMU is 69, so 4 Top-100 teams. What it should provide at the very least is some tougher games for Gonzaga to prep them for March in conference. I don’t suspect they’ll make it through the league unscathed this year.

The season inches closer and it should be a fascinating year with all the changes and a sense of normalcy.  


Thursday, July 22, 2021

It’s Back! Conference Shuffle 2021

After nearly a decade of relative conference stability, a bombshell dropped yesterday when the Houston Chronicle reported Texas and Oklahoma had contacted the SEC about possible membership. A few things off the top:


1. Texas and OU always had an uneasy truce with the rest of the Big XII which is a shame because it’s a super fun football and basketball league! It doesn’t have the stuffiness of the Big 14 or the ego of the SEC.


2.  It’s hilarious it could be the SEC instead of the PAC-12 or Big 14. When conference shuffling happened circa 2010, it was rumored the Pac-12 would take Texas and OU along with Ok State and another Texas school. It was also the wet dream of Jim Delany to add Texas, OU less so.


The early scuttlebutt is Texas A&M isn’t thrilled about this possibility and there are political concerns in Oklahoma but that seems overblown. My hunch is this leaked yesterday from A&M but it won’t matter if Texas and OU want in. The SEC will have some internal strife over it but the additions would be too good to pass up.


Should that happen, what about the rest of the Big XII? That’s a great question. It sounds like OU is no longer joined at the hip with OK State. The Cowboys and Texas Tech and Baylor would be the big losers. Kansas will always be a valuable property because of hoops. Kansas State and Iowa State have always been vulnerable because they’re simply not great properties. The Big 14 isn’t taking any of the schools except Kansas. 


As for the ACC and Pac-12, they can choose to add more properties but I’m not sure outside Kansas and Notre Dame any of the leftovers of the Big XII are that interesting. West Virginia is a bit of wild card as they’ve shown a commitment to being competive in football and basketball through the years. I’m just not sure the ACC would see them as a necessary addition.


The league most vulnerable outside the Big XII would likely be the AAC. Should the Big XII try and stick together, it isn’t wild speculation to assume Houston and Cincinnati would be natural targets, along with Memphis who is itching to move up in the world. It’s possible BYU might be inclined to join a league as well in football.


The times are-a-changing.  Again.

Wednesday, June 2, 2021

Coach K Thoughts

I’m sort of surprised by the news. I guess I imagined him coaching until he was prodded out the door like Bobby Bowden or worse case scenario, Joe Paterno. Good for him. At age 75, enjoy the last years of your life.


I’ve seen some speculation he’s doing this because of the new frontier coming in college athletics, the combination of more liberal transfer rules and NIL. I don’t buy that. He transformed his roster building through the years, going from not having early entry candidates as late as 1999, to accepting that and to one-and-dones more recently. Given Duke and his stature, neither of those things would remotely hurt Duke. Is it possible he doesn’t want to deal with another change as drastic as what is coming? Sure, but he’s 75.  Sometimes, it’s just time. 


Here’s how I see his career in my mind. I split it into 4-sections.

1- Building the Program (1980-1994): We all know the story by now. Struggled early but gets the Dawkins class and begins a stretch of making every Final 4 between 1986 and 1994 except in ‘87 and ‘93. That’s still wild in my mind and so underapprecited. Sustained, stacked success like that was the closest thing the sport had outside UCLA under John Wooden and this was in the modern era of the sport (64+ tournament).


This was also the era where Duke went from being just another program to joining the likes of the New York Yankees as a truly hated entity. This wasn’t and isn’t a bad thing. You don’t become truly hated in sports unless you win a lot or cheat a lot, often they go hand-in-hand as we know.


I’ve thought about this through the years as to why they became so hated. They were truly an underdog against UNLV in 1991. They may not have been Buster Douglas but they were also still viewed as a team that was pretty good but never good enough, sort of like Dean Smith and UNC before 1982. The UNC comparisons for K at Duke are quite large. I think we loved UNLV because they were anti-establishment and that Duke team represented the establishment which wasn’t fair because quite frankly, they had some basketball dirtbags on that team. Coach K’s connection to Bobby Knight didn’t help either.


The same dynamic would repeat itself against the Fab Five in ‘92. The end of this era was the title game in ‘94 against Arkansas. The last vestiges of the ‘92 title game would be gone and the sport was transitioning to a different type of student athlete. The sport had also established itself into the sports hierarchy with the explosion of available games on TV due to ESPN. I’d bet at this time, this was the closest K ever came to making a jump to the NBA.


2- The Reboot (1995-2004):  As we know, the ‘95 Duke team would miss the NCAA Tournament and Coach K sat out the year with a back. It wasn’t a good look. Weak team and a coach “quitting” when the going got tough. Lest we forget, Duke failed to make it out of the first weekend in ‘96 and ‘97. The ‘96 team was pretty average, finishing 8-8 in the ACC. They were 4-7 heading into February that year. 


‘98 looked promising but they lost a heartbreaker in the Elite 8 to the eventual champ, Kentucky Wildcats in one of the best tournament games ever. I can make an argument his ‘99 team was his best ever and only a loss in another Classic, this time the title game against UConn sullied that remarkable season.


The 2000 team really represented how hard the tournament is and how random it can be. It also represents the remarkable run from ‘86-‘94. That 2000 team was good enough to beat Michigan State. Florida made 7 of 15 from 3 while Duke went 3 of 19. Ballgame. Of course, they’d win it all a year later. 


Unlike the original run, this one only produced one title. An unlikely loss to Indiana in 2002 and a loss to eventual champ UConn again in the ‘04 Final 4 closed the door. This era was also marked by the first early entries under Coach K. It was big news when a chunk of that ‘99 team turned pro. Nonetheless, he figured out a way to win.


3- The Transition (2005-2010): Duke once again had the most hated player in the nation in this era in JJ Redick and a lot less March success until the unlikely title in 2010. This time also marked the change of the NBA draft rule that ushered in the one-and-dones. It also coincided with Roy Williams establishing himself at UNC as a worthy heir to Dean Smith.


Duke had a number of foils before this in the ACC. The aforementioned Dean Smith, Jim Valvano and NC State to a certain extent and some very good Wake Forest and Maryland teams. None of them matched the winning and success of Roy Williams. In a lot of ways, Williams run at UNC was similar to Coach K’s early run at Duke, just without the stumbles early.


While Duke didn’t fall off the map, they certainly were second fiddle to UNC until 2010. Carolina fell off a cliff after their 2009 title and Duke retook the league. Despite this, Duke would never once be number 1 in the nation until after the tournament. This was a year where Kansas and Kentucky were heavy favorites heading into the tournament. Duke’s best win that year prior to the tournament? It’s pretty bleak. I think when we look back at all his titles and championships, this may have been the favorite of them all for me besides 2015.


Part 4- Embrace Change (2011-present): Beginning with Kyrie Irving in 2011, Coach K radically changed his roster building and fully embraced the one-and-done model, for better or worse. While it produced a title in 2015 (This is another one I don’t think we fully appreciate), it was also a pretty fallow when it came to accomplishments. 


Duke hasn’t won an ACC regular season title since 2010. Maybe this says more about conference regular season titles (It does for a variety of reasons for another day). They’ve only made one Final 4 but do have 4 Elite 8 trips. Coach K was also heavily involved with Team USA, helping right that ship.


In the end, it’s a remarkable career that has spanned a sport that as he has shown, is ever evolving. Evolving with it isn’t easy. 


Many will cheer his departure without appreciating the successes and will mock many things about him. That’s a shame but winners have that burden. Did I find some of his late career complaints cringeworthy? Absolutely, but a person at his level for that long will put themselves in those positions. 


Those arguing he’s running from something should probably look back like I did. Like Roy Williams earlier this year, it’s ok to walk away after decades of success whatever the reason. Chances are, they’ve already proven themselves more than capable of success regardless the parameters of the sport. The hate is just that, hate. It’s the winners burden.

Sunday, April 4, 2021

The Final

Gonzaga versus Baylor was the ultimate destination this season was on. Rarely do we get 1 versus 2 in this sport at the end of the season. While Baylor went through the motions post-Covid break, they’ve locked back in and thoroughly humiliated a very good Houston team. They’d still be a statistical outlier should they win Monday night but wouldn’t be a surprise to win.


We should stop and appreciate what a brilliant game we saw last night between Gonzaga and UCLA. UCLA came out and kept throwing uppercuts at Gonzaga who took blow after blow and found a way to win. We’ll know after Monday’s game if it’s an all-time classic (They have to win the whole thing for it to match the pantheon of Duke-UK). That’s a game that deserved a full arena.


As for the game, KenPom has Gonzaga by 4, with a 65% win probability. I think it’s closer than that just because Baylor won’t flinch and are every bit as good as UCLA. The one thing I’ll come back to is, even as well as Baylor has played in this tournament, there have been moments where they get disinterested. It’s not sloppy, it’s a stretch where the defense is exposed. If they have that 10 minute stretch against Gonzaga, they’ll be hard pressed to pull the upset. 


The Pick: Gonzaga 84 Baylor 79

Wednesday, March 31, 2021

Final 4: The Picks

Baylor vs. Houston - It’s easy for us to forget what a great basketball history Houston has. This is their 6th Final 4. Remarkably, every time they’ve made an Elite 8, they’ve made the Final 4, albeit today’s Elite 8 is much different than 1968. Despite that history, they do not have a national title to their name. Phi Slamma Jamma made 3 trips in a row to the Final 4, losing the title games in 1983 & 1984. Prior to the arrival of Kelvin Sampson, Houston had been to only 4 NCAA Tournaments since losing the title game to Georgetown in 1984. Prior to winning in the opening round in 2018, their last tournament win was in the Final 4 in 1984 over Virginia, 49-47. Never change, Cavs.


Baylor basketball made two Final 4’s prior to this season. They were in 1948 and 1950. Before Scott Drew arrived, they had one NCAA appearance in total since that Final 4 in 1950. That was in 1988. They didn’t make it back to the dance until 2008. In a world of what have you done for me lately, Drew was hired in 2003. That means it took 5 years to make the tourney (We all know the mess he inherited) and has had seasons where he missed the tournament since, as recent as 2018. Baylor has made a lot of bad choices the last decade, keeping Scott Drew around is not one of them.


As for the game, Houston has done enough to win twice in games over Rutgers and Oregon State. They handled Syracuse with realtive ease as well in a matchup that favored them greatly. KenPom views this as a tossup as Baylor is 2 and Houston is 3. Baylor has a much better offense despite Houston being 7th in AdjuestedO (118.6) vs. Baylor who is 3 (123.0). Houston has the edge on defense, 8th overall (88.4) vs. Baylor, 28th overall (92.2). Basically, it’s a wash.

These are the 2nd and 3rd best offensive rebounding teams in the nation. Baylor is the nations top 3-point shooting team. Houston is 11th best in 3-pt fg% defense. Houston doesn’t turn it over much, Baylor forces a ton of turnovers. Baylor has the nations 7th best effective offensive fg%, Houston has the nations best effective defensive fg%. It’s a classic matchup of strength versus strength.


I’ll always lean towards the team with a better offense and in this case, I’ll do the same because Baylor’s 3-pt shooting is better than Houston’s and I think that’s the difference. Both teams will have extra possessions because of their offensive rebounding. Baylor should get more makes and if it’s a close game, I think that matters. Something else to watch, Baylor doesn’t typically shoot a lot of FTs but Houston fouls a lot. In a close game, it could matter.


The Pick: Baylor 70 Houston 68


UCLA vs. Gonzaga - Sigh. A Michigan-Gonzaga game could have been interesting. It’s possible this game could be, too. Gonzaga averages almost 10 more possessions per game than UCLA. UCLA does shoot it well enough from distance that if they get the Zags into a low possession slog, they may outscore them from distance.


However, USC was a much better defensive team than UCLA is and the Zags barely broke a sweat in what was one of the most, if not most impressive performance by a singular team this tournament. I said this about the Michigan-UCLA game, the Bruins are playing with house money and are 13.5 underdogs in this game. Hell, KenPom likes the Zags by 12 with an 86% win probability in a Final 4 game! The UCLA freaking Bruins are David to Gonzaga’s Goliath and it’s barely hyperbole.


UCLA has no pressure while the Zags chase perfection. I don’t dismiss that, especially in a game the Bruins will try and make ugly. Despite this warning, I think this Zags team eventually blows them out as Michigan could have and maybe should have done to UCLA. The difference between Gonzaga and Michigan is pretty staggering by the numbers.


The Pick: Gonzaga 80 UCLA 69

Monday, March 29, 2021

Tuesday Picks

Michigan vs. UCLA - Michigan waxed Florida State and UCLA dominated Alabama in overtime to advance to this game. UCLA got some help from Alabama shooting 11-25 from the FT line. This matchup for UCLA will be similar to what they had against Alabama. Michigan isn’t as 3-point reliant as Alabama and much more efficient overall. UCLA is playing with house money and those teams are always scary but Michigan is more balanced than Alabama and have figured things out without Livers.


The Pick: Michigan 71 UCLA 59


Gonzaga vs. USC - This is the best Elite 8 matchup. It’s also the toughest opponent for all the favorites. USC is up to 6th in KenPom. Gonzaga has the best 2pt offense in basketball, USC has the best 2pt defense in basketball. I keep hearing how size is the x-factor against the Zags and it’s possible it shows itself today but I think we really dismiss Zags complete package. They don’t shoot a lot of 3’s but they’re 29th in 3pt shooting %. USC will test them and maybe even win but I think Gonzaga shows us why they’re special in this game.


The Pick: Gonzaga 77 USC 72

Sunday, March 28, 2021

Monday Picks

Baylor vs. Arkansas - A throwback to the old SWC, Arkansas is in its first Elite 8 since making the title game in 1995. This is Baylor’s 3rd since 2010. Baylor’s win over Villanova was impressive as the Wildcats threw the kitchen sink at them and the Bears didn’t blink. Arkansas was behind almost the entire night against Oral Roberts but finally wore them down. Arkansas has been down double digits in all 3 tournament games. They can’t afford that against Baylor. 


The Pick: Baylor 71 Arkansas 62


Oregon State vs. Houston- The Cougs make it 3 old SWC teams in the Elite 8. The Beavers looked good against Loyola but Houston was more impressive against Syracuse. The numbers say this is a mismatch and I tend to agree.


The Pick: Houston 66 Oregon State 51

Thursday, March 25, 2021

The South Shall Rise Again

Villanova vs. Baylor - What could have been...Baylor is favored by 7.5 in Vegas while KenPom is less bullish, having them over by 4. 


The Wildcats are with out Colin Gillespie as we know. For the season, no one turned the ball over less than Villanova. Only 2 teams in the nation forced more turnovers than Baylor. The Gilllespie injury catches up to the Wildcats Saturday. To their credit, none of the Nova regulars turn the ball over but Chris Arcidiacano does and if he plays a lot Saturday, that could be a problem.


While we marvel at Villanova from distance, Baylor actually lead the nation in 3pt %. Nova was 237th in 3pt % defense. Couple that with a bad defensive effective fg% and this is simply a bad matchup for Villanova across the board.


We’ve seen Villanova shoot teams out of gyms but I think this will go the other way this weekend. Baylor isn’t great defensively but they’re much better than Villanova and the Bears offense is slightly better than Villanova and that’s impressive unto itself.


The Pick: Baylor 82 Villanova 72


Oral Roberts vs. Arkansas - KenPom gives Arkansas an 89% chance of winning this game with a predicted score of 86-72. They actually played earlier this year with Arkansas only winning by 11.


The Razorbacks have won 11 of 12 heading into this game and are a clear step above and defense Oral Bob has played. Arkansas isn’t anything special on offense but also don’t have any glaring warts you thing Oral Bob might exploit. Both teams play fast, averaging around 72 possessions per game, so there isn’t an advantage there. 


The key will be can Oral Roberts make 3’s? They’re 14th in 3pt % and 18th in attempts per FGA. They’ll put shots up and that gives them a punchers chance. While the Razorbacks are 10th in AdjustedD, they’re average in 3pt defense. I can see the Golden Eagles putting a scare into Arkansas but the Razorbacks should win.


The Pick: Arkansas 84 Oral Roberts 70

Midwest

Loyola Chicago vs. Oregon State - Vegas like the Ramblers by 6.5 and KenPom does by 7. Loyola is 9th in KenPom with the nations best defense and Oregon State is 49th overall.


That Rambler defense does everything well. 45th in effective defensive FG% and turnover % coupled with the 2nd best defensive rebounding % and 2nd least fouling team, they make you earn it. Add a slow tempo and you better be crisp on offense. The Beavers are 41st on AdjustedO but don’t have anything in particular they hang their hats on. 216th in effective fg% is a scary number.

OSU isn’t particularly stout on defense as well, 68th in AdjustedD. The effective fg% is ok but they don’t turn teams over, give up offensive rebounds and foul a lot. The Beavs are 238 in 2pt% defense, Loyola is 4th in 2pt% offense. The Rambler offense isn’t as good as their defense (35th in Adjusted O) but it has a lot going for it versus OSU. I think Loyola is a clear favorite for a reason.


The Pick: Loyola 69 Oregon State 58


Houston vs. Syracuse- The spread favors Houston by 7 and KenPom likes them by 8. The Cougs have looked sluggish at times over the last few weeks, though, and Syracuse is a pain in the ass. That said, Houston is 4th in KenPom and 7th in AdjustedO and 11th in AdjustedD. That’s the title contender formula.


On offense, the Cougars have an offensive rebounding % of 39.9%, 2nd best. The effective fg% is ok and they hoist a lot of 3’s (42% 3PA/FGA, 56th highest). They aren’t a great shooting team, though. If you’re looking for a reason Houston wins, well, Syracuse is awful in defensive rebounding % (zone and all), 340th overall and give up a lot of 3-pt attempts (44% 3PA/FGA). There’s a chance Houston blows them out. Syracuse is 86th overall in AdjustedD.


They’re better offensively at 17 but don’t do anything particularly well other than protect the ball. They shoot well enough from 3 that it should concern Houston. Houston does have the best defensive effective fg% in America and teams make less than 30% from 3 against them. They do foul a lot but force a lot of turnovers. The Orange haven’t gotten to the line much this year, though. 


I just don’t see a scenario where Syracuse wins without a real stinker from Houston. It’s certainly possible but Houston is clearly better and this matchup should strongly favor them.


The Pick: Houston 80 Syracuse 64

Wednesday, March 24, 2021

Sweet 16: Eastbound and Down

Michigan vs. Florida State - The Wolverines are still favored by 3 according to Vegas andKenPom likes them by 4. They handled an aggressive LSU team but the Noles are a much better defensive team. 

FSU is 29th in defense while LSU was around 110. The Noles are 21st in effective fg% defense but don’t force many turnovers and foul a lot. They also give up a lot of 2nd chance points. They’re 296th on defensive rebounding. Michigan doesn’t crash the offensive glass typically, however, they’re a dangerous team to give second looks to. They make 38.5% from 3, 11th in the nation. FSU is 272nd in 3PA/FGA. That is a morsel worth noting.


FSU is no slouch making 3’s themselves. They’re making 38%, close to what Michigan makes and they have an offensive rebounding % of 34.8%, 18th in the nation. Their weakness on defense matches their strength on offense. Michigan is a much better defensive rebounding team than FSU and are 30th in the nation in 3PA/FGA. 


Without Livers, FSU is a trendy pick in this region and game. The numbers really show me this isn’t a bad matchup for Michigan, though. I’m much more bullish on them than I would have been without looking at the numbers


The Pick: Michigan 77 Florida State 75


Alabama vs. UCLA - This is a contrast in styles. Bama is the 12th fastest team in the nation. UCLA is 337th. Almost 47% of Alabama’s shots are 3’s versus UCLA whose shots are 31% 3’s, 301st in the country. Vegas has the Tide favored by 6.5 and KenPom likes them by 4.


UCLA may play slow but it’s an efficient offense. 79th in effective fg%, 80th in offensive rebounding %, 28th in 3-point shooting % and protect the ball. Bama is 17th in effective fg% defense and teams only shoot 29% from 3 against them. That’s 9th best in the nation. They are a bad defensive rebounding team, though. They’re 218th in defensive rebounding %. They can force turnovers. What gives here? Can UCLA make baskets, can Bama prevent second chances?


On defense, the Bruins are far worse. They protect the glass but don’t force turnovers. They’re just below average in defensive effective fg%. Bama isn’t a great offense but are capable of blowing teams out. They crash the boards and as we’ve noted, for a team that shoots a lot of 3’s, second chances are something UCLA can’t allow. 


There’s a path here for the Bruins. If they can get Bama to slog it out with them and limit possessions and second chances, you could see UCLA frustrate the Tide. I think Bama’s defense, though, can handle a low possesssion game if it comes to that and make it a slog for UCLA as well. This is a fascinating game.


The Pick: Alabama 62 UCLA 58

Sweet 16: Heading West

Creighton vs. Gonzaga - Fun fact, in my mock tourney last year, I had the Zags knocking out Creighton in the Elite 8. What does that mean? Absolutely nothing. The Zags are 12 point favorites, with an 86% win chance per KenPom. Vegas is +13. 


How does Creighton win? I don’t know. The Zags do everything really well. If Creighton can have one of those Creighton nights of can’t miss, then I suppose they have a chance but I don’t see it. Creighton plays much slower but they don’t play slow enough or have enough size to cause mismatches. 


The Pick: Gonzaga 81 Creighton 66


Oregon vs. USC - Pac-12 on Pac-12 crime. Both looked very impressive in the second round. USC is favored by a bucket and a half and KenPom likes them by 4. They’ve also entered the stratosphere of teams that profile as national title winners. They’re up to 15th in AdjustedO and 5th in AdjustedD.

The Ducks defense is the weak link, 52nd in KenPom of this matchup. They’re just about average on defensive effective fg%. That hurts them because they don’t foul and force a decent amount of turnovers. On offense, they’re 25th in effective fg% and shoot 38% from 3, 12th best.


The Trojans counter defensively with the nations 7th best defensive effective fg% with their strength being in paint protection. They’re an average team guarding the 3-point line, so the Ducks have to hit 3’s to win. The Trojans are an efficient offense that crashes the offensive glass. They’re 12th in offensive rebounding. Oregon needs to be vigilant on defensive rebounding.

I think too much has to go right for Oregon in this game to win it but there’s definitely a path.


The Pick: USC 70 Oregon 63

Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Misery in the Big 14: The Good, The Bad, The Ugly

For most of the year, the Big 14 puffed their chests out. Until late, they claimed the best conference in the KenPom era. Alas, the 2004 ACC still holds that rank but it was an incredible year for the Big 14. They entered the tournament with 6 top 20 KenPom teams and 8 of the top 40. It was an incredible year. They earned two 1-seeds and two 2-seeds. There was nothing fluky or undeserved about it. Then the tournament started and the bottom fell out. Here is the good, bad and ugly.


The Good

Michigan- When they lost Isaiah Livers, it became trendy to pick LSU to beat them. While his loss is a big one, they are a pretty deep team. FSU will be a big challenge but I wouldn’t count them out. A 4th straight Sweet 16 and surviving some haymakers from LSU and the fan base has to be pretty thrilled.


Rutgers- Rutgers?!? Yes, Rutgers. Based on KenPom, they were slight favorites over Clemson but they hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1991. They probably should have beaten Houston but that shouldn’t diminish from the turnaround orchestrated by Steve Pikiell. Plus, his name hasn’t been mentioned for any other jobs. This shouldn’t be a one-off.


The Bad

Wisconsin - Remember the pre-season polls that had them in the top ten and the excitement over having almost all of their minutes from last year back? Remember the talk of expereince? Good. Because you’ll hear that in 3-4 years again and those kids aren’t as highly regarded as this group was.


Illinois - The Illini avoid the ugly because Loyola was so much better than an 8-seed. They also had to deal with the fact Loyola was going to be amped to beat the big(ger) brother. Illinois had a knack for playing “down” or sloppy. This was how it was going to end for them at some point. Illini fans may think better days await but this was a legit title contender that melted away in dispiriting fashion.


Michigan State - Izzo is March or something. They were soft, undisciplined and often uninspiring. He may not admit it, but I bet this was one of Izzo’s least favorite squads.


Maryland - Hey, they surprised me and beat UConn, so good? Well, they got blown off the court by Alabama and Mark Turgeon said, “what did you expect?”. I bet Terps fans expected a lot more when he replaced a coach who won a national championship.


The Ugly

Ohio State - Oral Roberts may be in the Sweet 16 but that doesn’t excuse the Buckeyes losing to them as a 2-seed. Ohio State was always a suspect team in our book, but losing to the 5th place team from the Summit League in the opening round? That’s ugly.


Purdue - The Boilermakers quietly had an excellent year and were staring at a potential Sweet 16 with a leaky Villanova team or maybe even Winthrop awaiting in round two. Instead, they laid an egg against North Texas who Villanova ran off the floor two nights later. And the game was in their home state. That’s ugly.


Iowa - Thw Hawkeyes made the Sweet 16 4 times in the 80’s. They have made it that far 1 time since. That was in 1999. They’re o-fer the millennium. As a 2-seed, a 7 or 10 can be problematic but Oregon entered the dance 36th in KenPom, not exactly an over seeded 7. Plus, giving up 56 in one half and 95 overall is pretty ugly. 





Monday, March 15, 2021

Re-Seeding: SOUTH

1. Baylor (4)

2. Ohio State (7)

3. Wisconsin (10)

4. Villanova (12)

5. Purdue (13)

6. Arkansas (18)

7. Texas Tech (23)

8. UNC (28)

9. Florida (37)

10. Utah State (40)

11. Virginia Tech (50)

This is the deepest and best overall region. Wisconsin is definitely seeded where they should be based on results. Their best win is Loyola and probably Maryland or Rutgers. They’ve lived high off the hog from trouncing Louisville and starting the year high in KenPom. They were originally 7th and got as high as 3 after the Louisville win. The key for them has been double digit wins over the lessers of the Big 14. What does it mean? They beat up teams they should but haven’t figured out how to win games against top teams. They’re favorites over UNC and should win but after that, thanks for playing and send Brad Davison back to Minnesota, eh?


Villanova gets a tough matchup against Winthrop. Pat Kelsey’s team plays fast and Nova was already sketchy on defense before Collin Gillespie got hurt. KenPom loves Nova in this game and it’s a trendy pick, so that gives me cause for pause. Purdue has quietly gone about their business this year but I won’t be surprised if North Texas makes that game interesting.


Utah State-Texas Tech might be a rock fight. Both teams can defend. I don’t think I’d pick Utah State but if this things stays in the 50’s, it’ll be a coin flip. I would like to see TTU-Arkansas in round two, though.


Florida-Virginia Tech is arguably the worst 7-10 game I can recall. Whoever wins that game won’t scare Ohio State. 


Baylor is still the clear favorite here. They’re +4 in AdjEM over Ohio State. The Buckeyes are closer to Wisconsin and roughly the same difference the other way from Texas Tech. I think this region could be a potential chaos region, but I really like Baylor and after doing 4 of these, I’m going Baylor and Gonzaga. I think it’s Houston or Illinois and I’ll ride with Houston because Illinois will be a very trendy pick and one of UConn or FSU out East. It’s Michigan if they figure out life without Livers but that’s almost too big a loss.

Re-Seeding: WEST

1. Gonzaga (1)

2. Iowa (5)

3. Virginia (11)

4. USC (14)

5. Creighton (19)

6. Kansas (22)

7. Oregon (36)

8. Oklahoma (39)

9. VCU (45)

10. Missouri (51)


This is the worst bracket. The Midwest is the messiest by seeding but this is quite clearly the worst bracket. Seeding isn’t terribly out of whack. Kansas is too high and will be without Jalen Wilson, so USC making the second weekend won’t surprise me.


If Gonzaga doesn’t win this region, it’s one of the great disappointments in the Mark Few era. It’s not that Iowa or Virginia couldn’t beat them in a one off, they can, it just seems this is as good a setup as the Zags could hope for.

Virginia is favored sizably over Ohio but will be coming off Covid protocols and Ohio has steamrolled some teams despite some starts and stops throughout the year. It may not mean much now, but they did only lose by 2 to Illinois early in the year.


Creighton has gone 3-3 in their last 6 games and UCSB is 69th in KenPom. The Jays are the favorites for sure but this bracket is begging you to pick both the 4 and 5 to lose. UCSB head coach Joe Pasternack should be a hot name in the coaching cycle anyway, but this would accelerate that. It’s possible both Arizona jobs open, too. 


One final note, I’m not sure how it stacks up historically, but this is the worst 8-9 game of all 4 brackets. Looks good in name but it’s a woofer.


Re-Seeding: MIDWEST

1. Illinois (3)

2. Houston (6)

3. Loyola (9)

4. San Diego State (20)

5. Tennessee (21)

6. West Virginia (27)

7. Oklahoma State (30)

8. Georgia Tech (32)

9. Rutgers (34)

10. Syracuse (41)

11. Clemson (42)


This region is a mess. The top 2 seeds are the clear favorites and are 2 teams that profile as potential national champions. Loyola got the 8-seed and are 9th in KenPom. They are woefully under seeded in this regard but as we know, while the committee claims they use analytics, I think that’s only partly true. Loyola is where they probably should be. The difference between them and Illinois is roughly 7 in AdjEM. It’s roughly the same between them and Syracuse the other way. Instead of potentially getting Syracuse in either the first or second round, though, they get Georgia Tech and them potentially Illinois. That’s tough for the 9th best KenPom team but such is the life of a true mid-major.


As we noted in the East, West Virginia is too high as a 3-seed. It sickens me to say, but there’s a path to the Sweet 16 for Syracuse who loves to prove the committee right. That said, it does also open up a legit chance for San Diego State to do the same as a 6.


Oklahoma State got a lot of love as a team that should have gotten a better seed and they did just beat Baylor but they are over seeded at 4. They should handle Liberty but would be underdogs to Tennessee and everyone else on that side of the bracket save Georgia Tech and Oregon State. They have a very good team and the best player in Cade Cunningham and that could be the difference but I’d take a great pause anointing them as a sleeper in this region.


It’ll be an upset in my mind if we don’t get Houston and Illinois in the regional final. Seeing a 6-seed get to the Sweet 16 seems like the likely “upset” in this region. Rutgers would be favored over Clemson but 10-7 isn’t a big upset.


Morehead State will probably get some upset picks but they got blown out by Ohio State, Richmond, Kentucky and Clemson during the regular season. This region feels pretty chalky.

Re-seeding: EAST REGION

Isn’t it nice to have the tournament back? Unless you’re in Louisville, Lexington, Durham or Milwaukee. Anyway, it’s time to re-seed the regions by KenPom. We’ve got some interesting things in this mix this year. Let’s start with the East

1. Michigan (2)

2. Alabama (8)

3. Florida State (15)

4. UConn (16)

5. Colorado (17)

6. BYU (24)

7. St. Bonaventure (25)

8. Texas (26)

9. LSU (29)

10. Maryland (31)


My first reaction to this bracket was it was the weakest but that isn’t correct. Only 2 top-10 teams but 10 top-30 teams give it depth. We do have some anomalies to discuss.


The 3-seeds across the board are over seeded based on KenPom. Texas drops to an 8 here. The Longhorns swept one of the weaker Kansas teams of recent memory and missed them at the Big XII tourney due to Covid. Their next best win is over North Carolina and that’s not a great win in 2021. Outside a rout of KU on January 2nd, they haven’t beaten a Top-100 KenPom team by double digits. Wins are wins but they have a bit of luck on their side.


UConn moves up the most in this exercise and happen to be on the same side of the bracket as Texas. They were without future NBA first rounder James Bouknight for awhile as well. UConn sneaking into an Elite 8 shouldn’t shock anyone given the side of the bracket they’re on.


LSU will be a trendy pick over Michigan in the second round and there isn’t much doubt LSU is a good squad but they’re 125th in defensive efficiency and their best two wins are over Arkansas. Michigan is banged up but if you fell in love with LSU over the weekend, take a deep breath and look closer.


I had mentioned Colorado might be worth a flier but they were pretty average away from home and there was a recent article by someone on altitude teams having an advantage at home that is discernible enough that it may inflate how good they are. I’d link it but just take my word for it.


As for potential upsets, I’m sure the Izzo is March crowd will like them over BYU should they beat UCLA but they’re 56th in KenPom which is behind Georgetown. I don’t think Abilene Christian will beat Texas but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Longhorns are uncomfortable for about 39 minutes. I think the 4’s and 5’s are safe in this region. As much as I love Iona, Alabama is too much for them and I watched bits of the MAAC final. The Gaels aren’t very good 

Sunday, March 14, 2021

Final Bracket

1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan vs Tex. Southern (SWAC)/Oral Roberts (Sumit)
Baylor vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois (B1G) vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Iona (MAAC)
Houston (AAC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Abline Christian (Sland)
Texas (B12) vs E.Washington (Bsky)
Oklahoma St vs Morehead St (OVC)
Kansas vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida St vs UNCG (SoCon)
Purdue vs Liberty (Asun)
West Virginia vs Ohio (MAC)
Virginia vs North Texas (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Colorado vs UCSB (Bwest)
Creighton vs Oregon St (P12)
Tennessee vs Georgetown (Beast)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas Tech vs UCLA/Utah State
San Diego St (Mwest) vs VCU/Drake
USC vs Syracuse
LSU vs Louisville
7 seed vs 10 seed
Missouri vs Maryland
BYU vs Michigan State
Wisconsin vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
Connecticut vs Virginia Tech
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Georgia Tech (ACC)
Oregon vs Florida
Clemson vs Loyola (Mvalley)
North Carolina vs Rutgers
First Four Out
Colorado State
Wichita St
W. Kentucky
Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Bosie State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Memphis
Also Considered
St. John's
Mississippi
Dukeppi
Duke

Last At-Large Bids

 In my mind there are two spots for 4 teams.  Those teams in no order:

Utah State - solid NET, KenPom, and BPI.  7 Q1 games but 2-5

Colorado State - NET and KP are in the 50-60. 2-4 in Q1.  Leaning out now

Drake - injuries hurt. only 1-2 in Q1 but 5-0 in Q2.  Strange resume

Wichita State - had them solidly out with NET and KP around 70.  However,  NCOS is 41 and went 2-3 in Q1.


Almost Final Bracket....

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan vs Tex. Southern (SWAC)/Oral Roberts (Sumit)
Baylor vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois (B1G) vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Iona (MAAC)
Houston (AAC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Abline Christian (Sland)
Texas (B12) vs E.Washington (Bsky)
Oklahoma St vs Morehead St (OVC)
Kansas vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida St vs UNCG (SoCon)
Purdue vs Liberty (Asun)
West Virginia vs Ohio (MAC)
Virginia vs North Texas (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Colorado vs UCSB (Bwest)
Creighton vs Oregon St (P12)
Tennessee vs Georgetown (Beast)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas Tech vs UCLA/Utah State
San Diego St (Mwest) vs VCU/Drake
USC vs Syracuse
LSU vs Louisville
7 seed vs 10 seed
Missouri vs Maryland
Clemson vs Michigan State
Wisconsin vs Florida
Connecticut vs Virginia Tech
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Georgia Tech (ACC)
Oregon vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
BYU vs Loyola (Mvalley)
North Carolina vs Rutgers
First Four Out
Colorado State
Wichita St
W. Kentucky
Seton Hall
Next Four Out
Bosie State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Memphis
Also Considered
St. John's
Mississippi
Cincinnati

Saturday, March 13, 2021

Saturday Morning Bracket

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan (B1G) vs PV A&M (SWAC)/Fairfield (MAAC)
Baylor vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Nicholls (Sland)
Houston vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Texas vs E.Washington (Bsky)
Oklahoma St vs Morehead St (OVC)
West Virginia vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Florida St (ACC) vs UNCG (SoCon)
Purdue vs Liberty (Asun)
Creighton (Best) vs Buffalo (MAC)
Kansas vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Colorado (P12) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Virginia vs UCLA/Utah State
Tennessee vs Syracuse/ColState
6 seed vs 11 seed
San Diego St (Mwest) vs Drake
Texas Tech vs Michigan State
Virginia Tech vs Louisville
Wisconsin vs Wichita St (AAC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Missouri vs Georgia Tech
Clemson vs VCU
Florida vs North Carolina
USC vs Oregon
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs Maryland
Rutgers vs Connecticut
BYU vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
LSU vs Loyola (Mvalley)
First Four Out
Seton Hall
Bosie State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Next Four Out
Memphis
St. John's
Mississippi

Friday, March 12, 2021

Quick Bubble

 Here is your bubble as of this morning in my eyes.  Georgia Tech is the end of the locks.
That leaves the following teams left sweating it out:

Colorado State
Drake
Michigan State
Syracuse
UCLA
Utah State

The only two teams left still playing are Utah State and Colorado State and play each other today.  I think Colorado is a lock with a win but not necessarily out with a loss.  Utah State is a must win.


Quick Bracket - Notes Later

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)/Hartford(Aeast)
Michigan (B1G) vs PV A&M (SWAC)/St.Peters (MAAC)
Baylor (B12) vs Mt. St. Mary's (NEC)
Illinois vs App St (Sbelt)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Alabama (SEC) vs Nicholls St (Sland)
Houston vs Cleveland St (Hor)
Ohio State vs Drexel (CAA)
Iowa vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arkansas vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Kansas vs Southern Utah (Bsky)
Texas vs Morehead St (OVC)
West Virginia vs Colgate (Pat)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Virginia (ACC) vs UNCG (SoCon)
Oklahoma St vs Liberty (Asun)
Purdue vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
Florida St vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Villanova vs Toledo (MAC)
Creighton (Best) vs UCSB (Bwest)
Wisconsin vs UCLA/Utah State
Tennessee vs Michigan St/Syracuse
6 seed vs 11 seed
Missouri vs Drake
Texas Tech vs Colorado State
Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech
Colorado vs Wichita St (AAC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Florida vs Louisville
Clemson vs VCU
San Diego St (Mwest) vs St. Bonaventure (A10)
USC vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Oklahoma vs LSU
Rutgers vs Maryland
BYU vs North Carolina
Oregon (P12) vs Connecticut
First Four Out
Seton Hall
Boise State
St. Louis 
Xavier
Next Four Out
Memphis
St. John's
Mississippi
SMU

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

NCSOS

 

Now that we are down to the last few days of the season we can really dive into the numbers and see what teams are in more trouble than we thought.  When I talk trouble I don’t just mean making the tournament, I also mean those teams that are being overseeded by extremely overrated Bracketologist like Joe Lunardi.  Jerry Palm at CBS is actually really good and consistently dominate Lunardi (as do I).

The two key stats I look at when finalizing my seed list is Non-Conference Strength of Schedule and then a combination of Quad 1 and Quad 2 record.  I read a couple articles in the past from committee members where they explicated said they value who you schedule and how you did higher than all the ranking numbers.  Now, a lot of these ranking numbers have NCSOS and Quad wins baked in but if you are telling me you look at these rankings and then NCSOS that tells me you are using that twice.  I’m going to lock that in and adjust accordingly.

So, that being said the number I look at first is a NCSOS of higher than 200.  You can’t control how good a team is when you play them because you’re scheduling a year out but it’s a pretty good indicator year in and year out if you are a team who tries to schedule cupcakes every year.  Great examples are Syracuse and St. Mary’s who are consistently on the wrong side of the bubble and also consistently have a very low NCSOS

 

This year the teams that jump out at me are the following as it pertains to NCSOS:

Virginia Tech – 239th

Rutgers – 184th

Connecticut – 202nd

Louisville – 216th

St. Bonaventure – 236th

Colorado State – 207th

Xavier – 251st

St. Louis – 222nd

 

Most of these teams are “locks” as of right now but I don’t believe the last 3 are in with a loss in the first round of their conference tournaments.  Xavier and Colorado State are my last two need to look good for the committee.  Now, I know I just posted an article about Conference Tournaments not meaning much but this could be a case where the committee doesn’t have those teams in right now anyway due to their NCSOS.  It would not be surprising if the last two in right now were Utah State (NCSOS of 78) and Seton Hall (NCSOS of 28).  Their resumes are very similar otherwise with the exception of W/L record.  The bubble is still very open for 3-4 spots  

The Rubber Meets the Road

 Congrats to all the auto-bids last night; we done with those until Saturday.

Today begins the bubble bursting time that is Conference Tournament week.  Or is it?  Cracked Sidewalks has a great article that shows that this week does not have as much affect on the bubble as one would think.  Outside of bid thieves the idea playing into the field is more myth than reality.  A perfect example would be Duke this year.  One would think that winning 4 games and losing in the ACC Tournament Championship would be enough for them to leap a bunch of teams and get an at-large bid.  After all, that run would include 4 total wins with 3 being Quad 1.  However, this has not been the case in the past 5 years as very few teams, if any, actually play their way into the tournament.  Teams like Duke, Syracuse, Seton Hall, or Mississippi are either in right now and have to hang on or are out and need the auto-bid.

There's not telling if this year will be different because of Covid but if you are a fan of a team on the outside looking in it's best to get the auto bid and erase all doubt.


Tuesday, March 9, 2021

The Duke Conundrum

This hasn’t been a very good season for Duke. Should Duke fail to win the ACC Tournament, it seems likely they will miss the dance and that of course, means no Final 4. That would be a Final 4 drought dating back to 2015, matching the 2004-2010 drought.


Getting to Final 4’s isn’t easy. Coach K and Duke spoiled it’s fans from 1986-2004, making 10 Final 4’s. That’s an incredible feat. Since 2004, only the title teams of 2010 and 2015 have reached the Final 4.


Perhaps asking what’s wrong with Duke or what does the future hold is the wrong question.  They’ve been awfully good the last decade, of course. Prior to this season, the worst Duke team was 2012, when they finished 19th in KenPom. That team also was over seeded and got bounced by Lehigh.


The real conundrum is, where do they go from here? They have two 5* recruits coming in next year but we’re at the point where the question needs to be asked, so what? Who is coming back with them? Is this how to build a roster and win? Have the best one-and-done teams happened? What is the best way to build a roster?


I think that last question is the one Duke has to wrestle with. After catching lightning in a bottle in 2015, Duke has gotten close twice since then. In 2019 with Zion and 2018 with Bagley and Carter. It shows it can be done but with the doors opening to the G-League, is one-and-done a viable option moving forward? I think it’s a question Kentucky is wrestling with right now, too.


The one-and-done model is a model of potential instant gratification and that isn’t a surprise given K’s age. The administration isn’t going to question his strategy, however, maybe the assistants need to take a bigger picture look. Coach K has adapted through the decades, perhaps the pendulum is tilting back towards “getting old together”. It’s not as glamorous and not a sure thing. Transfers from a program and available transfers from other programs make roster management that much more difficult.


The other issue Duke has staring at it is, succession. There’s little doubt K’s successor is going to be from the family. The problem as we know is, there isn’t a natural choice. It seems almost certain to me, his successor is in Durham right now with him. None of his tree is good enough to come home.


And that’s the crux of what I think about where Duke is today and it’s a hard discussion to have. Duke can’t force K out nor should they but it is time to look forward. With the retirement of AD Kevin White, the new AD is going to take this job knowing that decision looms. Whoever takes that position has to know K’s plan. Duke can defer or be proactive. For their sake, they can’t defer.


It’s my contention the new AD has to be able to hire his own coach and not have one dropped in his or her lap and if that means leaving the family, so be it. There isn’t a Roy Williams to replace Dean eventually. It’s an unenviable position for whoever will take that job but for Duke’s sake, it has to be the best available candidate and if that means a coach with no Duke connections, so be it.


College programs become beholden to the past (Hi, I’m a Michigan football fan) to the point where moving forward is damn near impossible. Alabama football spent 25 years trying to replace Bear Bryant. UCLA still hasn’t replaced John Wooden. Hell, Marquette fans still pine for a guy that roamed the sidelines 45 years ago. Duke must learn from this and the alumni and fan base need to learn from this. The past was great and the future can be, too, just don’t let remember when influence the now. 

Coach K is 74 years-old and as great as he’s been, history tells us 74 year-olds don’t have many good coaching years ahead of them. The clock is ticking in Durham and Duke has to be ready for when it strikes midnight. It also has to understand a new day means new opportunities and not to be afraid of them. 


Tuesday Update

 

5 Bids go out tonight and then we are done with Auto-Bids until Saturday.
 
Colonial – Elon vs Drexel
 
Horizon – Oakland vs Cleveland State
 
NEC – Mount St. Mary’s vs Bryant
 
Summit – Oral Roberts vs North Dakota State
 
WCC – BYU vs Gonzaga
 
In addition, The ACC and the Big West start their conferences today.  UCSB is favored in the Big West but the ACC is wide open.  As long as Virginia doesn’t win I will be somewhat happy.

Monday, March 8, 2021

Monday Bracket - 2 More Bids Tonight

 

1 seed vs 16 seed

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Hartford(AEst)/ PVA&M (SWAC)

Michigan (B1G) vs NC A&T(MEAC)/Bryant(NEC)

Baylor (B12) vs S. Utah (Bsky)

Illinois vs Northeastern (CAA)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Alabama (SEC) vs Cleveland St (Hor)

Houston vs Grand Canyon (WAC)

Ohio State vs Siena (MAAC)

Iowa vs Abilene Christian (Sland)

3 seed vs 14 seed

West Virginia vs Morehead St (OVC)

Arkansas vs S.Dakota St (Smmt)

Kansas vs Colgate (Pat)

Villanova (Beast) vs Georgia St (Sbelt)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Virginia (ACC) vs UNCG (SoCon)

Texas vs Liberty (Asun)

Purdue vs Winthrop (Bsouth)

Florida St vs W. Kentucky (Cusa)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Oklahoma St vs Toledo (MAC)

Creighton vs UCSB (Bwest)

Texas Tech vs Drake/Boise State

Tennessee vs Xavier/Colorado St

6 seed vs 11 seed

Clemson vs UCLA

Virginia Tech vs Georgia Tech

Wisconsin vs Michigan State

Missouri vs Wichita St (AAC)

7 seed vs 10 seed

Oklahoma vs North Carolina

Colorado vs VCU

Florida vs St. Bonaventure (A10)

San Diego St (Mwest) vs Loyola (Mvalley)

8 seed vs 9 seed

USC vs LSU

Rutgers vs Maryland

BYU vs Louisville

Oregon (P12) vs Connecticut

 

First Four Out

Utah State

Seton Hall

St. Louis

Syracuse

Next Four Out

Memphis

St. John's

Mississippi

Duke

Also Considered

Louisiana Tech

SMU

Indiana

Stanford