Let’s talk about Kentucky. The Wildcats clinched their 49th regular season SEC title. The SEC is pretty middling this year. It’s 6th in KenPom, closer to the AAC, the 7th best league than the 3rd rated Big East. There are only 4 teams in the top 40 of KenPom. They are Florida (33), Auburn (38) and LSU (40). Kentucky is 26. The league doesn’t have a single team projected for the second weekend.
I bring this all up because I’ve watched enough UK this year that I think they look like a Final 4 team. The analytics say something else. It’ll be a great eye test vs. analytics case study.
Kentucky is 32nd in AdjustedO and 42nd in AdjustedD. Certainly, those numbers aren’t bad but they don’t indicate a team capable of making a Final 4. They’re 12th defensively in effective fg%. The black mark on defense is lack of forcing turnovers. That is a problem for them. I’d argue they’d be better off running more but they can’t if they don’t force turnovers. They’re 211th in tempo and that’s who they are at this point.
Offensively, they’re a below average 3-point shooting team and that’s a concern. They make them at an average clip but they don’t take many. They’re 351st in percentage of 3’s accounting for scoring. They’re 348th in percentage of shots taken from 3 versus 2. They get to the line a lot and make their freebies. They’re 3rd nationally in free throw % and 4th in getting to the line overall.
As always, they have a lot of very good players. They aren’t as stacked with lottery picks as vintage Calipari teams but they have NBA players. Nick Richards has improved tremendously this year and the back court is probably as good as any in the nation. There is a lot to like on this roster except for shooting. Immanuel Quickley is a 42% shooter from 3 and is their most prolific shooter but outside him, it’s grim.
This is a fascinating team. I mean that as a compliment. I can’t wait to see what they do in March. Watching them, they look like a Final 4 team. The numbers scream a team that will need some luck to make the second weekend. I’m guessing the eye test wins out. Let’s see
Saturday, February 29, 2020
Tuesday, February 25, 2020
Tuesday Bubble Games
Xavier at DePaul - Xavier has OK computer number but currently sit as a 10 seed. A loss doesn't drop them out but they don't have a ton of wiggle room
Texas Tech at Oklahoma - Oklahoma is in the same spot as Xavier. It wouldn't be a terrible loss but they need to limit them
Memphis at Tulsa - Memphis is on it's last legs. A loss here might be the end of an at-large chance.
North Carolina St at North Carolina - I have NC State as the first team out and a win doesn't help them leap Richmond. They need to stay clean in this rivalry game
Alabama at Mississippi St - Both teams are in the last 6 or so out. A win moves either one ahead of the other. A win and a NC State loss could put them right on the cusp.
Akron at Bowling Green - winner is the auto-bid for the MAC tomorrow!
Texas Tech at Oklahoma - Oklahoma is in the same spot as Xavier. It wouldn't be a terrible loss but they need to limit them
Memphis at Tulsa - Memphis is on it's last legs. A loss here might be the end of an at-large chance.
North Carolina St at North Carolina - I have NC State as the first team out and a win doesn't help them leap Richmond. They need to stay clean in this rivalry game
Alabama at Mississippi St - Both teams are in the last 6 or so out. A win moves either one ahead of the other. A win and a NC State loss could put them right on the cusp.
Akron at Bowling Green - winner is the auto-bid for the MAC tomorrow!
Monday, February 24, 2020
Monday Bracketology
|
1
seed vs 16 seed
|
|
Kansas
vs St.Francis(NEC)/Siena(MAAC)
|
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/PV A&M(SWAC)
|
|
Baylor
(B12) vs Radford (Bsouth)
|
|
SanDiegoSt
(Mwest) vs Montana (Bsky)
|
|
2
seed vs 15 seed
|
|
Dayton
(A10) vs S.Dakota St(Summt)
|
|
Louisville
(ACC) vs Colgate (Patriot)
|
|
Florida
State vs UALR (Sbelt)
|
|
Maryland
(B1G) vs Wright St (Horizon)
|
|
3
seed vs 14 seed
|
|
Duke
vs Belmont (OVC)
|
|
Seton
Hall (Beast) vs Hofsta (Col)
|
|
Creighton
vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
|
|
Villanova
vs New Mexico St (WAC)
|
|
4
seed vs 13 seed
|
|
Kentucky
(SEC) vs North Texas (Cusa)
|
|
Auburn
vs Vermont (Aeast)
|
|
Oregon
vs Akron (MAC)
|
|
Penn
St vs SFA (Sland)
|
|
5
seed vs 12 seed
|
|
West
Virginia vs Liberty (Asun)
|
|
BYU
vs Yale (Ivy)
|
|
Michigan
vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)
|
|
Ohio
State vs Richmond/USC
|
|
6
seed vs 11 seed
|
|
Butler
vs Stanford/Wichita St
|
|
Michigan
St vs ETSU (SoCon)
|
|
Colorado
vs Rhode Island
|
|
Arizona
vs Cincinnati
|
|
7
seed vs 10 seed
|
|
Marquette
vs Oklahoma
|
|
Iowa
vs Florida
|
|
Wisconsin
vs Xavier
|
|
Texas
Tech vs Utah State
|
|
8
seed vs 9 seed
|
|
St.Mary's
vs Indiana
|
|
LSU
vs Rutgers
|
|
Houston
(AAC) vs Virginia
|
|
Illinois
vs Arizona St (P12)
|
|
First
Four Out
|
|
NC
State
|
|
Georgetown
|
|
Providence
|
|
Arkansas
|
|
Next
Four Out
|
|
Purdue
|
|
Mississippi
State
|
|
UCLA
|
|
Alabama
|
|
Also
Considered
|
|
Notre
Dame
|
|
Syracuse
|
|
VCU
|
|
South
Carolina
|
|
Memphis
|
|
Texas
|
|
UNC-Greensboro
|
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Sunday Amusings
Big doings out west last night in college basketball. San Diego State suffered their first loss of the season as TJ Otzelberger and UNLV went to San Diego and upset the Aztecs. A few hours later, the Mormons ran Gonzaga out of Utah as BYU blitzed the Zags. The Pac-12 had a wild day as well. Arizona State moved into first place after Oregon beat Arizona in overtime and UCLA won at Colorado. ASU has won 7 in a row and UCLA has won 6 in a row. It’s a fun league again, huzzah!
The bigger news, of course, were the losses by San Diego State and Gonzaga. The Zags loss isn’t a bad loss or all that surprising. BYU is 17th in KenPom and have the nations 4th most efficient offense. The Zags are very good but I think the defense is suspect. BYU could be a sneaky deep run team in March. The SDSU loss is a bit confusing but going undefeated is hard. Credit to UNLV. It’ll be curious to see how the Aztecs respond.
The other big event of the day was Kansas going into Baylor and exacting some revenge on the Bears. I have questions about Baylor scoring the ball and yesterday didn’t quell those questions. Despite that, both are 1-2 in KenPom but if I were a betting man, I like KU to go further in March.
The rest of the day was pretty chalky. The game that stands out to me is the West Virginia loss at TCU. They’re 7th in KenPom but they’ve lost 4 of 5 and sure look like first round fodder for someone like, say, Yale.
The bigger news, of course, were the losses by San Diego State and Gonzaga. The Zags loss isn’t a bad loss or all that surprising. BYU is 17th in KenPom and have the nations 4th most efficient offense. The Zags are very good but I think the defense is suspect. BYU could be a sneaky deep run team in March. The SDSU loss is a bit confusing but going undefeated is hard. Credit to UNLV. It’ll be curious to see how the Aztecs respond.
The other big event of the day was Kansas going into Baylor and exacting some revenge on the Bears. I have questions about Baylor scoring the ball and yesterday didn’t quell those questions. Despite that, both are 1-2 in KenPom but if I were a betting man, I like KU to go further in March.
The rest of the day was pretty chalky. The game that stands out to me is the West Virginia loss at TCU. They’re 7th in KenPom but they’ve lost 4 of 5 and sure look like first round fodder for someone like, say, Yale.
Friday, February 21, 2020
Friday Bracketology
|
1
seed vs 16 seed
|
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs St.Francis(NEC)/Siena(MAAC)
|
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/PV A&M(SWAC)
|
|
SanDiegoSt
(Mwest) vs S.Dakota St(Summt)
|
|
Kansas
vs Montana (Bsky)
|
|
2
seed vs 15 seed
|
|
Dayton
(A10) vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
|
|
Maryland
(B1G) vs Austin Peay (OVC)
|
|
Louisville
(ACC) vs UALR (Sbelt)
|
|
Florida
State vs Colgate (Patriot)
|
|
3
seed vs 14 seed
|
|
Duke
vs Wright St (Horizon)
|
|
Seton
Hall (Beast) vs Hofsta (Col)
|
|
Creighton
vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
|
|
Villanova
vs New Mexico St (WAC)
|
|
4
seed vs 13 seed
|
|
Colorado
(P12) vs North Texas (Cusa)
|
|
Penn
St vs Vermont (Aeast)
|
|
Kentucky
(SEC) vs Akron (MAC)
|
|
West
Virginia vs SFA (Sland)
|
|
5
seed vs 12 seed
|
|
Arizona
vs Liberty (Asun)
|
|
Auburn
vs Yale (Ivy)
|
|
Michigan
vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)
|
|
Marquette
vs Miss St/Cincinnati
|
|
6
seed vs 11 seed
|
|
Butler
vs Indiana/Richmond
|
|
BYU
vs ETSU (SoCon)
|
|
Oregon
vs Utah State
|
|
Ohio
State vs Arizona State
|
|
7
seed vs 10 seed
|
|
Michigan
St vs USC
|
|
Iowa
vs Oklahoma
|
|
Wisconsin
vs Wichita St
|
|
Texas
Tech vs Virginia
|
|
8
seed vs 9 seed
|
|
Houston
(AAC) vs Florida
|
|
St.Mary's
vs Illinois
|
|
Rutgers
vs Rhode Island
|
|
LSU
vs Xavier
|
|
First
Four Out
|
|
NC
State
|
|
Georgetown
|
|
Purdue
|
|
Alabama
|
|
Next
Four Out
|
|
Stanford
|
|
South
Carolina
|
|
Providence
|
|
Arkansas
|
|
Also
Considered
|
|
Notre
Dame
|
|
Syracuse
|
|
VCU
|
|
UCLA
|
|
Memphis
|
|
Texas
|
|
UNC-Greensboro
|
Thursday, February 20, 2020
5 seed or 6 seed
I saw someone say they’d rather be a 6-seed in the tournament instead of a 5-seed. My first thought was, that doesn’t seem far-fetched. 5-seeds always lose. I looked at the past decade and was quite surprised at what I found. It wasn’t that I was surprised 5-seeds lose a fair amount, but being a 6-seed isn’t any better.
Here are how 5-seeds have fared since 2010 (number indicates how many teams have lost in that round):
Round of 64: 16
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 6
Elite 8: 1 (Arizona 2011)
Final 4: 2 (Auburn 2019, Michigan State 2010)
Title Game: 1 (Butler 2010)
Here are how the 6-seeds have fared:
Round of 64: 21 !!
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 5
Elite 8: 2 (Xavier 2010, Notre Dame 2016)
What does it mean? Spend more time looking for upsets on that 6-line than the 5-line
Here are how 5-seeds have fared since 2010 (number indicates how many teams have lost in that round):
Round of 64: 16
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 6
Elite 8: 1 (Arizona 2011)
Final 4: 2 (Auburn 2019, Michigan State 2010)
Title Game: 1 (Butler 2010)
Here are how the 6-seeds have fared:
Round of 64: 21 !!
Round of 32: 12
Sweet 16: 5
Elite 8: 2 (Xavier 2010, Notre Dame 2016)
What does it mean? Spend more time looking for upsets on that 6-line than the 5-line
Hey, It's Thursday!
There will be a new bracket tomorrow but in the meantime
there has been some movement worth noting.
Due to too many losses the following teams have been dropped
from the Also Considered bucket:
Minnesota
Virginia Teach
SMU
Tulsa
St. Louis
Furman
I’ve added Providence and UNC-Greensboro although the latter
is a long shot. Their numbers are better than you would think.
The big news of the night was NC State’s crushing defeat of
Duke. I guess that was on par with the last conversation that Kurly and I
had about them being one of the two teams we had pegged to win it all.
They were never in that game and I question their ability to win it all.
This sets up Kansas to lose to Baylor on Saturday further crushing my
mid-February thoughts on the National Champion.
Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Bubble Games Tonight
Illinois at Penn State – The Illinoi have been falling fast
as Penn State rises. A huge road chance here.
Arkansas at Florida – neither team should be comfortable but
Arkansas is one of the First Four out
Purdue at Wisconsin – I don’t think Wisconsin is a lock but
Purdue is currently one of the play in games
Dayton at VCU – VCU hit bottom with a home loss against
George Mason. The NEED this one or they may be done
Baylor at Oklahoma – it’s a free shot at the #1 team in the
land. A loss doesn’t really hurt but a win is Huge
Monday, February 17, 2020
Monday Bracketology
|
1
seed vs 16 seed
|
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Siena(MAAC)
|
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/PV A&M(SWAC)
|
|
SanDiegoSt
(Mwest) vs UALR (Sbelt)
|
|
Kansas
vs Montana (Bsky)
|
|
2
seed vs 15 seed
|
|
Duke
vs S.Dakota St(Summt)
|
|
Dayton
(A10) vs Murray St (OVC)
|
|
Maryland
(B1G) vs Hofsta (Col)
|
|
Florida
State vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
|
|
3
seed vs 14 seed
|
|
Penn
St vs Wright St (Horizon)
|
|
Louisville
(ACC) vs Colgate (Patriot)
|
|
Creighton
vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
|
|
Seton
Hall (Beast) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
|
|
4
seed vs 13 seed
|
|
Colorado
(P12) vs North Texas (Cusa)
|
|
Villanova
vs Vermont (Aeast)
|
|
Kentucky
(SEC) vs Akron (MAC)
|
|
Auburn
vs SFA (Sland)
|
|
5
seed vs 12 seed
|
|
West
Virginia vs Liberty (Asun)
|
|
Oregon
vs Yale (Ivy)
|
|
Marquette
vs Purdue/Richmond
|
|
Arizona
vs Indiana/Cincinnati
|
|
6
seed vs 11 seed
|
|
Butler
vs ETSU (SoCon)
|
|
Ohio
State vs Utah State
|
|
Michigan
vs Arizona State
|
|
BYU
vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)
|
|
7
seed vs 10 seed
|
|
Michigan
St vs Illinois
|
|
Iowa
vs Florida
|
|
Wisconsin
vs Virginia
|
|
Rutgers
vs Wichita St
|
|
8
seed vs 9 seed
|
|
Texas
Tech vs Rhode Island
|
|
LSU
vs Xavier
|
|
Houston
(AAC) vs Oklahoma
|
|
St.Mary's
vs USC
|
|
First
Four Out
|
|
Georgetown
|
|
Arkansas
|
|
Mississippi
State
|
|
Alabama
|
|
Next
Four Out
|
|
Stanford
|
|
VCU
|
|
Minnesota
|
|
South
Carolina
|
|
Also
Considered
|
|
Notre
Dame
|
|
Syracuse
|
|
Virginia
Tech
|
|
SMU
|
|
Memphis
|
|
Tulsa
|
|
St.
Louis
|
|
Texas
|
|
NC
State
|
|
UCLA
|
|
Furman
|
Sunday, February 16, 2020
Offensive Basketball
Brian and I were texting yesterday about the state of college basketball and who is any good this year. Eventually, we started discussing offenses this year or apparent lack thereof. I took a look at the numbers and sure enough, the top offensive team in KenPom AdjustedO, if the season ended today, would be one of the worst in the KenPom era if not the worst.
Gonzaga has the best offense with an AdjustedO of 120.4. Going back to 2013, a year similar to this with offenses, we’d find that to be pretty low for the top offensive team. Let’s take a look at those numbers.
2019: Gonzaga 124.5, 6 teams better than this year
2018: Villanova 127.8, 5 teams better
2017: Oklahoma State 126.0, 9 teams better
2016: UNC, 124.4, 9 teams better
2015: Wisconsin 129, 6 teams better
2014: Duke 124.7, 4 teams better
2013: Michigan 121.9. 3 teams better
In 2013, Michigan made the Final 4 as a 4-seed. Louisville won it all as the overall 1-seed and had the nations best defense. They are quite similar to Kansas. The other two Final 4 teams were Syracuse, a 4-seed and Wichita State, a 9-seed. FWIW, Michigan this season is quite similar to Wichita State and Baylor most similar to that Syracuse team.
We discussed if this means chalk or chaos and my hunch is chaos. All that said, I think Kansas and Duke have separated themselves as the top-2 teams in the nation. At this moment, I’ll be surprised if neither make a deep March run.
Finally, we wondered if defense or offense would dominate. It seems defense would be the answer but if your team can score the ball, I like their chances given the dearth of good offensive teams this year.
Gonzaga has the best offense with an AdjustedO of 120.4. Going back to 2013, a year similar to this with offenses, we’d find that to be pretty low for the top offensive team. Let’s take a look at those numbers.
2019: Gonzaga 124.5, 6 teams better than this year
2018: Villanova 127.8, 5 teams better
2017: Oklahoma State 126.0, 9 teams better
2016: UNC, 124.4, 9 teams better
2015: Wisconsin 129, 6 teams better
2014: Duke 124.7, 4 teams better
2013: Michigan 121.9. 3 teams better
In 2013, Michigan made the Final 4 as a 4-seed. Louisville won it all as the overall 1-seed and had the nations best defense. They are quite similar to Kansas. The other two Final 4 teams were Syracuse, a 4-seed and Wichita State, a 9-seed. FWIW, Michigan this season is quite similar to Wichita State and Baylor most similar to that Syracuse team.
We discussed if this means chalk or chaos and my hunch is chaos. All that said, I think Kansas and Duke have separated themselves as the top-2 teams in the nation. At this moment, I’ll be surprised if neither make a deep March run.
Finally, we wondered if defense or offense would dominate. It seems defense would be the answer but if your team can score the ball, I like their chances given the dearth of good offensive teams this year.
Sunday Morning Update
It was a nice busy day for college basketball yesterday with most of the top seeds winning. All projected #1's and #2's who player won with the exception of Louisville who could only muster 14 points in the first have to non-bid Clemson. Clemson has been unique this year as they are no where near a bid but have wins against Duke, North Carolina, and now Louisville.
In addition to Louisville's loss there were other teams just as unfortunate.
In the Big 14, Michigan State gave up the last 14 points of the game vs Maryland and they fall while Illinois lost their 4th in a row. The Spartans are still around a 6 seed but at one point they were the 1.1 team. Illinois meanwhile still is in the bracket but not by a whole lot. Purdue remains out (despite most people having them in anyway), with another loss.
The Shaka Smart duo of VCU and Texas both lost and are now securely on the outside looking in. I don't see how he keeps the Texas job after this year. Back to a mid-major to rebuild his brand. See Grant, Anthony.
The Big East is starting to cannibalize each other, much like the Big 10. Thankfully they have DePaul in there to give everybody win. Depaul = Northwestern and St. John's = Nebraska....and they are all better than UNC!
In addition to Louisville's loss there were other teams just as unfortunate.
In the Big 14, Michigan State gave up the last 14 points of the game vs Maryland and they fall while Illinois lost their 4th in a row. The Spartans are still around a 6 seed but at one point they were the 1.1 team. Illinois meanwhile still is in the bracket but not by a whole lot. Purdue remains out (despite most people having them in anyway), with another loss.
The Shaka Smart duo of VCU and Texas both lost and are now securely on the outside looking in. I don't see how he keeps the Texas job after this year. Back to a mid-major to rebuild his brand. See Grant, Anthony.
The Big East is starting to cannibalize each other, much like the Big 10. Thankfully they have DePaul in there to give everybody win. Depaul = Northwestern and St. John's = Nebraska....and they are all better than UNC!
Friday, February 14, 2020
Friday Bracketology
|
1
seed vs 16 seed
|
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Rider(MAAC)
|
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/PV A&M(SWAC)
|
|
SanDiegoSt
(Mwest) vs Austin Peay (OVC)
|
|
Kansas
vs Montana (Bsky)
|
|
2
seed vs 15 seed
|
|
Duke
vs S.Dakota St(Summt)
|
|
Dayton
(A10) vs UALR (Sbelt)
|
|
Maryland
(B1G) vs Hofsta (Col)
|
|
Louisville
(ACC) vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
|
|
3
seed vs 14 seed
|
|
Florida
State vs Wright St (Horizon)
|
|
Penn
St vs Colgate (Patriot)
|
|
Auburn
(SEC) vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
|
|
Kentucky
vs New Mexico St (WAC)
|
|
4
seed vs 13 seed
|
|
Seton
Hall (Beast) vs North Texas (Cusa)
|
|
West
Virginia vs Vermont (Aeast)
|
|
Oregon
(P12) vs Liberty (Asun)
|
|
Creighton
vs SFA (Sland)
|
|
5
seed vs 12 seed
|
|
Colorado
vs Akron (MAC)
|
|
Villanova
vs Yale (Ivy)
|
|
Butler
vs Utah St/Arizona St
|
|
Marquette
vs Stanford/Cincinnati
|
|
6
seed vs 11 seed
|
|
Michigan
St vs ETSU (SoCon)
|
|
Arizona
vs Xavier
|
|
Texas
Tech vs Arkansas
|
|
BYU
vs Rhode Island
|
|
7
seed vs 10 seed
|
|
Iowa
vs Wichita St
|
|
LSU
vs USC
|
|
Ohio
State vs Oklahoma
|
|
Illinois
vs Virginia
|
|
8
seed vs 9 seed
|
|
Wisconsin
vs Florida
|
|
Rutgers
vs St.Mary's
|
|
Michigan
vs Indiana
|
|
Houston
(AAC) vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)
|
|
First
Four Out
|
|
VCU
|
|
Purdue
|
|
Memphis
|
|
Richmond
|
|
Next
Four Out
|
|
NC
State
|
|
Georgetown
|
|
Texas
|
|
Mississippi
State
|
|
Also
Considered
|
|
Notre
Dame
|
|
Syracuse
|
|
Virginia
Tech
|
|
SMU
|
|
Alabama
|
|
Tulsa
|
|
St.
Louis
|
|
Minnesota
|
|
Furman
|
Thursday, February 13, 2020
Rock, Chalk, Rock
Kansas went to Morgantown and beat West Virginia 58-49 on Wednesday night. The win was their 9th straight and they have set up a rematch in Waco next Saturday against Baylor that could go a long way to determining the Big XII regular season title. This Kansas team is doing it with one of the best defenses in recent memory.
The Big XII has 3 of the top 5 defenses in the nation and 4 of the top 6. It’s impressive stuff. Kansas is best at 83.4. West Virginia is 2nd at 85. That is a decent gap from 1 to 2. It would be the best defensive numbers of the KenPom era. That’s impressive stuff.
Kansas is playing the slowest they’ve played in the Bill Self era, 232nd in tempo. Before you proclaim this as a vindication of slow basketball like Jeff Potrykus did, keep in mind, Kansas has fluctuated through the years when it comes to tempo. Weirdly, Self coaches to his talent and not to a system.
What’s most important is they’re 5th in effective fg% defense. They’re 12th in 3pt shooting defense and 10th in 2pt shooting. They also block a lot of shots and are 20th in steal % but average overall on turnover %. They also do not foul. If you can’t score the ball, Kansas will suffocate you.
They’re doing all this without Silvio de Sousa who is out until the end of the regular season. Helps they have two of KenPom’s top 10 players, Devon Dotson who is 1 and Udoka Azubiuke who is 9th.
The offense is 14th in offensive efficiency. With the 25th best effective fg%, that is a deadly combination with their defense.
Even as the number one team overall in KenPom, it feels they’ve been somewhat forgotten. If the offense can stay as efficient as it has been, with a defense for the ages, they can cut down the nets in March and they might be the favorite right now. In a year without any great offenses, this Kansas team is built for 2020.
The Big XII has 3 of the top 5 defenses in the nation and 4 of the top 6. It’s impressive stuff. Kansas is best at 83.4. West Virginia is 2nd at 85. That is a decent gap from 1 to 2. It would be the best defensive numbers of the KenPom era. That’s impressive stuff.
Kansas is playing the slowest they’ve played in the Bill Self era, 232nd in tempo. Before you proclaim this as a vindication of slow basketball like Jeff Potrykus did, keep in mind, Kansas has fluctuated through the years when it comes to tempo. Weirdly, Self coaches to his talent and not to a system.
What’s most important is they’re 5th in effective fg% defense. They’re 12th in 3pt shooting defense and 10th in 2pt shooting. They also block a lot of shots and are 20th in steal % but average overall on turnover %. They also do not foul. If you can’t score the ball, Kansas will suffocate you.
They’re doing all this without Silvio de Sousa who is out until the end of the regular season. Helps they have two of KenPom’s top 10 players, Devon Dotson who is 1 and Udoka Azubiuke who is 9th.
The offense is 14th in offensive efficiency. With the 25th best effective fg%, that is a deadly combination with their defense.
Even as the number one team overall in KenPom, it feels they’ve been somewhat forgotten. If the offense can stay as efficient as it has been, with a defense for the ages, they can cut down the nets in March and they might be the favorite right now. In a year without any great offenses, this Kansas team is built for 2020.
Wednesday, February 12, 2020
The Income Gap in College Athletics: Does it Matter for Hoops?
About ten days ago, the SEC announced $651 million total revenue was divided amongst its 14 members. That comes out to about $45 million per member institution. In 2018, the Big Ten generated $759 million in revenue, leaving each member institution $54 million. Maryland and Rutgers received less than others because they haven’t “vested” to fill shares.
From what I could find, each member of the Big XII received close to $39 million in revenue from the conference in 2019. ACC members received about $29 million in shared revenue in 2019. The Pac-12 was at about $29 million per school in shared revenue, actually decreasing from 2018.
The difference between the SEC and Big 10 versus the other power conferences doesn’t seem significant to the layperson but last night saw an event occur that showed the vast difference in the arms race that is college sports. Mel Tucker left Colorado after one year to take over the Michigan State football program. He left a program with moderate expectations, access to West Coast talent (through decreasing in recent years) and took a job that at best is the 4th best in its own division and has to fight 3 legit heavyweights for talent in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania not to mention SEC schools. Why? Michigan State doubled his salary and the pool to put his assistants. He leaves a program after one year for a program sinking like a ship and almost certainly in the crosshairs of the NCAA.
Why is this important? There is a legitimate gap increasing between the Big Ten and the SEC and the rest of the college landscape. We’ve seen the SEC swing big in coaching hires in basketball in recent years. It hasn’t always worked but the money involved makes it easier to swing big, strikeout and swing big again.
An argument can be made, the dollars and cents haven’t hit college basketball hard yet and perhaps because there are 350 D-1 options, it’s a different creature than football and it is. The truth is, schools in the Big Ten and SEC that want to build monster facilities and pay through the nose for coaches and assistants can. That doesn’t even take into account perks such as private jets for recruiting and whatever other accessories that may come available.
If the disparity continues, the future of the Pac-12 comes into question. It already struggles to compete nationally for a variety of reasons, the largest being the time its games are on. I’m not sure there is anyway they can increase revenue and close the disparity without a move inland. I’m not sure what that entails but I suspect the next wave of realignment is upon us.
From what I could find, each member of the Big XII received close to $39 million in revenue from the conference in 2019. ACC members received about $29 million in shared revenue in 2019. The Pac-12 was at about $29 million per school in shared revenue, actually decreasing from 2018.
The difference between the SEC and Big 10 versus the other power conferences doesn’t seem significant to the layperson but last night saw an event occur that showed the vast difference in the arms race that is college sports. Mel Tucker left Colorado after one year to take over the Michigan State football program. He left a program with moderate expectations, access to West Coast talent (through decreasing in recent years) and took a job that at best is the 4th best in its own division and has to fight 3 legit heavyweights for talent in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania not to mention SEC schools. Why? Michigan State doubled his salary and the pool to put his assistants. He leaves a program after one year for a program sinking like a ship and almost certainly in the crosshairs of the NCAA.
Why is this important? There is a legitimate gap increasing between the Big Ten and the SEC and the rest of the college landscape. We’ve seen the SEC swing big in coaching hires in basketball in recent years. It hasn’t always worked but the money involved makes it easier to swing big, strikeout and swing big again.
An argument can be made, the dollars and cents haven’t hit college basketball hard yet and perhaps because there are 350 D-1 options, it’s a different creature than football and it is. The truth is, schools in the Big Ten and SEC that want to build monster facilities and pay through the nose for coaches and assistants can. That doesn’t even take into account perks such as private jets for recruiting and whatever other accessories that may come available.
If the disparity continues, the future of the Pac-12 comes into question. It already struggles to compete nationally for a variety of reasons, the largest being the time its games are on. I’m not sure there is anyway they can increase revenue and close the disparity without a move inland. I’m not sure what that entails but I suspect the next wave of realignment is upon us.
Monday, February 10, 2020
Monday Bracketology
|
1
seed vs 16 seed
|
|
Gonzaga
(WCC) vs R.Morris(NEC)/Rider(MAAC)
|
|
Baylor
(B12) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/PV A&M(SWAC)
|
|
SanDiegoSt
(Mwest) vs Murray St (OVC)
|
|
Kansas
vs S.Dakota St(Summt)
|
|
2
seed vs 15 seed
|
|
Louisville
(ACC) vs UALR (Sbelt)
|
|
Dayton
(A10) vs Hofsta (Col)
|
|
Duke
vs Bowling Green (MAC)
|
|
Florida
State vs UC-Irvine(Bwest)
|
|
3
seed vs 14 seed
|
|
Maryland
(B1G) vs Wright St (Horizon)
|
|
Auburn
(SEC) vs Winthrop (Bsouth)
|
|
West
Virginia vs Colgate (Patriot)
|
|
Seton
Hall (Beast) vs N.Colorado
|
|
4
seed vs 13 seed
|
|
Penn
St vs New Mexico St (WAC)
|
|
Kentucky
vs North Texas (Cusa)
|
|
Colorado
(P12) vs Vermont (Aeast)
|
|
Marquette
vs Liberty (Asun)
|
|
5
seed vs 12 seed
|
|
Oregon
vs SFA (Sland)
|
|
Villanova
vs Yale (Ivy)
|
|
Iowa
vs ETSU (SoCon)
|
|
Creighton
vs Memphis/Miss St
|
|
6
seed vs 11 seed
|
|
Michigan
St vs N. Iowa (Mvalley)
|
|
Butler
vs Texas Tech/Xavier
|
|
LSU
vs Oklahoma
|
|
Arizona
vs Virginia
|
|
7
seed vs 10 seed
|
|
BYU
vs St.Mary's
|
|
Rutgers
vs Wichita St
|
|
Houston
(AAC) vs Indiana
|
|
Illinois
vs Florida
|
|
8
seed vs 9 seed
|
|
Wisconsin
vs VCU
|
|
Ohio
State vs Rhode Island
|
|
Arkansas
vs Stanford
|
|
Michigan
vs USC
|
|
First
Four Out
|
|
Purdue
|
|
Georgetown
|
|
Richmond
|
|
Cincinnati
|
|
Next
Four Out
|
|
Utah
State
|
|
Arizona
State
|
|
Texas
|
|
NC
State
|
|
Also
Considered
|
|
Notre
Dame
|
|
Syracuse
|
|
Virginia
Tech
|
|
SMU
|
|
Alabama
|
|
Tulsa
|
|
St.
Louis
|
|
Minnesota
|
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