Monday, February 28, 2022

Conference Tournaments - 3/1

 Conference Tournament – Horizon

Cleveland St is the 1 seed but they are extremely shaky.  Oakland has the better numbers and I think they run through the bracket.  Northern Kentucky is the sleeper here

My pick – Oakland

Conference Tournament – Atlantic Sun

#1 Seed – Jax St/Liberty

Jacksonville St is the one seed in the top bracket and Liberty is the one seed in the bottom.  Hard to see them not meeting up in the Championship

My pick – Liberty

Conference Tournament – Patriot

#1 Seed – Colgate

Colgate is the 1 seed and is looking for the auto bid for the second year in a row.  I think they get there with a little resistance from Boston U.

My pick – Colgate

Monday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs CleveSt(Hor)/NicollsSt(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs TexSo(SWAC)/Colgate (Pat)
Auburn (SEC) vs Bryant (NEC)
Baylor vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Wisconsin(B1G) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Providence (Beast) vs Jacksonville St (Asun)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Villanova vs Princeton (Ivy)
Texas Tech vs Texas St (Sbelt)
Kentucky vs Toledo (MAC)
Purdue vs N. Iowa(Mvalley)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Connecticut vs Towson (CAA)
Illinois vs Vermont (Aeast)
Tennessee vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Alabama vs Iona (MAAC)
Arkansas vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Ohio State vs BYU/Loyola
Houston (AAC) vs Xaver/Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
Texas vs Wake Forest
USC vs Memphis
St. Mary's vs North Texas (Cusa)
Colorado St vs North Carolina
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa State vs Miami
Michigan St vs San Francisco
Boise St(Mwest) vs Davidson (A10)
Seton Hall vs San Diego St
8 seed vs 9 seed
Wyoming vs TCU
Marquette vs Creighton
Murray State (OVC) vs Notre Dame
LSU vs Iowa
First Four Out
Oregon
SMU
Michigan
Indiana
Next Four Out
VCU
Virginia Tech
St. Bonaventure
Rutgers
Also Considered
UAB
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Colorado
Dayton

Conference Tournaments, March 2

Two more leagues kick off their tournaments this Wednesday. Let’s dive in.


BIG SOUTH

The Big South tournament will be taking place in Charlotte, NC. The league is split into two divisions. In the North, Longwood coasted to the top with a 15-1 record. They’re 158th in KenPom.

In the South, the more familiar Winthrop finished 14-2. They lost in their only game against Longwood this year, 92-88 on the road. They’re 163rd in KenPom. The best KenPom team is Gardner-Webb, 156th, who finished 2nd in the South and went 11-5. 


Winthrop has the only top-100 KenPom win of the year which was a victory over Furman of the SoCon. This being the case, they’re the pick.


OHIO VALLEY

Let’s begin by saying Murray State deserves an at-large regardless of how this plays out. They’re 28-2 and went 18-0 in their last season in the OVC before moving to the other Valley. They have 3 Top-100 KenPom wins out of league and are ahead of current Big 14 leader Wisconsin in KenPom and well ahead of Big East Champ Providence. 26th in KenPom should make them a lock.

The only other schools with winning conference records were Belmont and Morehead State, who went 15-3 and 13-5 respectively. Belmont is 80th in KenPom and Morehead is 127. Both would be potential bracket busters. Like Murray State, Belmont will be moving to the MVC next year as well.


Murray State has beaten Belmont by 33 and 22 but struggled more against Morehead State, winning by 11 and 4. If there’s an upset, Morehead State seems more likely to pull it off. However, the Racers are the pick.


Conference Tournaments - 2/28

 Conference Tournament – Northeast

#1 Seed – Bryant

Bryant sneaks in to the top seed as Wagner lost their last two.  The NET and KenPom ranking of this conference is Wagner and then everybody else 100 spots lower.  To me it’s clear

My pick – Wagner

Monday Morning Update

There will be  new bracket later today but we have bubble games and conference tournaments starting tonight.

Bubble Game – 2/28:

Syracuse at North Carolina – I think UNC has done enough to be ok but they are vary bare at the top.  Bad losses are not good for a reason and this would be a bad loss

San Diego St at Wyoming – San Diego St is right next to UNC on my bracket.  This would not be a bad loss but a road win over a top 25 team is huge for the resume


 


Sunday, February 27, 2022

Conference Tourney Previews: Tuesday, March 1

On Tuesday, 3 other leagues begin their conference tournaments. Let’s dive in.


ATLANTIC SUN

The A-Sun plays their tournament games on campus sites. Liberty won the East and Jacksonville State won the West. Both are pretty decent teams. Liberty is 115th in KenPom and Jacksonville State is 137th. Either would be a feisty first round matchup.

The only other top 200 KenPom team is Jacksonville, not to be confused with Jacksonville State. Jacksonville is 163rd and finished 2nd in the East. One is in Alabama and the other on Florida, so calm yourself.


The Pick: Jacksonville State


HORIZON

The Horizon always seems to give us chaos, so prepare accordingly. The league starts with games on campus sites and the final four is in Indy.

Cleveland State won the league, going 15-6 which tied them with IPFW. However, Cleveland State won 2 of the 3 games they played. The Vikings have lost their last 2 games while IPFW is on a 9-game winning streak. They’re 193rd and 228th in KenPom respectively.

At 173 is Oakland, who went 12-7 in league. Wright Stte is 195th and went 15-7 in league. They’re pretty close to one another and the winner should come from 1 of these 4 but don’t get cocky about it.


The Pick: Oakland


PATRIOT

The Patriot plays their tourney games on campus sites. The top two teams are Colgate and Navy. Colgate is 132nd in KenPom and have won 12 straight games. They have a win over Syracuse on the resume as well. They’d be a potential problem in the opening round.

Navy is 174th in KenPom and have a win over Virginia. Colgate swept the season series.


The Pick: Colgate




Saturday, February 26, 2022

NEC Tournament

Believe it or not, the first conference basketball tournament tips-off Monday as the NEC gets us started. This afternoon, the regular season will be decided as Wagner heads to Bryant. The winner will be the 1-seed and regular season champ.

Wagner is the best team in the league, currently 139th in KenPom. Bryant is second at 208th. Wagner has a nice win earlier this year at VCU. 

Brian has Wagner as a 14-seed and they’d have a chance to be a pest. They’re the pick here.

Friday, February 25, 2022

The Forgettable March: 1996

I enjoy looking back at older March Madnesses. A nostalgic fool, perhaps, but a happy fool. Thinking about the 0 or 5 anniversary years, there were Final 4’s to remember. 35 years ago, Coach K and Duke shocked UNLV. There were Final 4’s to make you vomit, 2001 and 2011 were awful. Then there was 1996. Do you remember the ‘96 tournament? Sure, if you’re a Syracuse or Kentucky fan. UMass and Mississippi State fans do, too, since neither has been back to the Final 4 since. But what do you remember about this particular tournament? Let’s look back.


EAST REGION

The East region was largely chalk except for 12-seed Arkansas making the Sweet 16. The Razorbacks weren’t as good as ‘93-‘95 Arkansas but still talented. They beat Penn State and Marquette to make a return trip to the Sweet 16. Upsets by seeding, hardly Cinderella. Luckily, I was at work when Marquette lost.


The regional final was UMass lead by Marcus Camby taking on Georgetown and Allen Iverson, the 1 and 2-seeds respectively. The game was a blowout with UMass winning 86-62. Georgetown’s Big East title game was more memorable against UConn. Speaking of...


SOUTHEAST REGION

In the SE region (Yes, it was still the Southeast and not South), UConn was the 1-seed and prohibitive favorite. They entered the tournament 30-2 and had just outlasted Georgetown in one on the more memorable Big East title games and were lead by Ray Allen. The Huskies would be shocked by Mississippi State, the 5-seed in the regional semi-final. Though the final score was close, the Bulldogs largely controlled the game and questions arose about whether Jim Calhoun would ever make a Final 4.


In the regional final, Mississippi State won by 10 over 2-seed Cincinnati in a snoozer. In other games in this region, Eastern Michigan beat Duke in a 8-9 game. Just wild remembering that.


MIDWEST REGION 

Kentucky strolled through this region, winning the regional final over Wake Forest and Tim Duncan by 20.

In other notes, UWGB would lose in the 8-9 games against Ace Custis and Virginia Tech, 61-49. Mike Heideman had replaced Dick Bennett at this point but still had Jeff Nordgaard. I recall consternation over the seeding for UWGB and they scored 49 in an opening round loss. Sounds Bennett familiar.


WEST REGION

Now, this region had some juice. Purdue survived as a 1-seed in the opener over Western Carolina, 73-71. It was tied at 71 with 1:29 and Western Carolina had 3 shots to tie or win, helped in part by Brad Miller missing a front end of a 1-and-1 with 11.6 left. I swear Brad Miller just graduated.


Purdue’s luck ran out a game later, as 8-seed Georgia and Tubby Smith handled the Boilers with relative ease, 76-69. Georgia looked like it may upset 4-seed Syracuse next but a Jason Cipolla bucket tied the game at the buzzer. In overtime, John Wallace would hit a game-winning 3 at the horn. Wallace would finish with 30 points and 15 boards as he had a legendary tournament.


Their opponent in the regional final would be Kansas who outlasted Arizona 83-80 in the other semifinal. On that Kansas team was Jacques Vaughn, Paul Pierce, Jerod Haase, Scott Pollard and Raef Lafrentz. Of course, Arizona would shock KU a year later in another regional final. Syracuse would beat KU 60-57 in an ugly game where both teams shot 35%. The most memorable moment would be Al McGuire dancing with Syracuse after the game. That’s the highlight of the tournament.


THE FINAL FOUR

It was terrible, well, largely forgettable. Syracuse handled Mississippi State and UK did the same against UMass. The final saw a game Syracuse team try to keep up with Kentucky’s “Untouchables” but had 24 turnovers and foul trouble for John Wallace. The Orange would close within 2 late but timely shots by Tony Delk ended the suspense. Kentucky would have 9 players from that roster play in the NBA.


Kentucky looked like a potential dynasty and maybe they were as much as a team can be in the modern era, playing in 3 straight title games and 4 Final Fours in 6 years. 


Fun fact: This would be the last Final 4 at a basketball arena before permanently moving to domes. The Final 4 was played in East Rutherford, NJ, the first Final 4 in the NYC area since 1950.


Friday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs CleveSt(Hor)/NicollsSt(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs TexSo(SWAC)/Colgate (Pat)
Auburn (SEC) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kentucky vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Purdue (B1G) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Duke (ACC) vs Jacksonville St (Asun)
Baylor vs Texas St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Villanova vs Princeton (Ivy)
Texas Tech vs Wagner (NEC)
Wisconsin vs Toledo (MAC)
Providence (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Connecticut vs Towson (CAA)
Ohio State vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Tennessee vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Houston (AAC) vs Iona (MAAC)
Texas vs Rutgers/Florida
Illinois vs Michigan/Memphis
Alabama vs SMU
6 seed vs 11 seed
Arkansas vs TCU
USC vs San Diego St
LSU vs North Texas (Cusa)
Colorado St vs North Carolina
7 seed vs 10 seed
Iowa vs Miami
Michigan St vs San Francisco
Boise St(Mwest) vs Davidson (A10)
Seton Hall vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Wyoming vs Creighton
Marquette vs Notre Dame
Murray State (OVC) vs Xavier
Iowa State vs St. Mary's
First Four Out
Oregon
Wake Forest
Dayton
Indiana
Next Four Out
BYU
Virginia Tech
St. Bonaventure
VCU
Also Considered
UAB
Cincinnati
Texas A&M
Colorado
Kansas St
Oklahoma
Virginia

Thursday, February 24, 2022

Thursday's Notes

 There will be a new bracket tomorrow but we have a full night of games to get through.

Bubble-wise it appears the biggest games are Ohio State vs Indiana and Temple vs Memphis.  Both Memphis and Indiana are right on the cut line as of today.  A win or loss will tip the scales in either direction.

On the West Coast we have a couple games that will affect seeding including UCLA vs Oregon (a bubble team in it's own right) and Gonzaga vs San Francisco.

Overall the biggest game of the night comes from the Mid-majors as Murray State hosts Belmont.  Murray State can afford a loss and probably stay an at-large.  Belmont needs this game and then stay undefeated until the OVC title game if they want a chance for an at-large.

Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Tuesday Thoughts

 Indiana lost an overtime game to Ohio State and are now probably on the outside looking in.  Lots of movement from the middle of the Big Ten over the next 2 week.

Tonight's big bubble games are Arkansas at Florida and Miami at Pittburgh.  Florida needs to avoid a letdown after beating Auburn and Miami's profile just isn't that good.  Need to avoid all bad losses.

San Diego State vs Boise State is a lowkey banger of a game.

Monday, February 21, 2022

Fatal Flaws: Texas Tech Offense

Unlike Purdue’s defense, I’m not sure Texas Tech’s offense is a true fatal flaw, but it certainly limits their chances in March. As of today’s, they’re 41st in adjustedO. That’s not terrible! It’s also outside historical ranges of a legit threat to cut down the nets. What is the problem?

Of the four factors, effective fg% is the most important and it’s the most important by quite a bit. Tech isn’t terrible at 52.1%, 86th in the nation. They’re 27th in 2-pt FG% overall. Unfortunately, their 3-pt FG% is only 279th in the nation. 55% of their offense is from 2, 25% from 3 and 20% from the line. 

When it comes to the free throw line, they’re 15th best in getting there. Their FTA/FGA is 38.7%. That’s incredibly good. It’s also the least important of the four factors. It should also be noted, the Red Raiders shoots 70% from the line which is 227th in the nation.

The thing they do worst is protect the ball. Their turnover % is 19.6%, 246th in the nation. They are 20th in offensive rebounding %, to help offset that. It’s a interesting mix of offensive numbers. Can they protect the ball and can they avoid being bitten by being a weak 3-point shooting team?

The defense is 2nd best in typical Tech fashion. The offense is hardly terrible but there are a few concerns about it. They’re still good enough to be a second weekend team but I don’t see them as a Final 4 contender without some breaks in the bracket next month.

Monday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs CleveSt(Hor)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Arizona (P12) vs Southern(SWAC)/Colgate (Pat)
Auburn (SEC) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kentucky vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Purdue (B1G) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Duke (ACC) vs Liberty (Asun)
Texas Tech vs Texas St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Villanova vs Princeton (Ivy)
Baylor vs Wagner (NEC)
Wisconsin vs Toledo (MAC)
Providence (Beast) vs N.Iowa (Mvalley)
4 seed vs 13 seed
UCLA vs New Mexico St (WAC)
Connecticut vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illinois vs Towson (CAA)
Tennessee vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Houston (AAC) vs Iona (MAAC)
Texas vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Arkansas vs WakeForest/SMU
LSU vs Florida/Indiana
6 seed vs 11 seed
Alabama vs TCU
Ohio State vs North Carolina
USC vs North Texas (Cusa)
Michigan St vs Miami
7 seed vs 10 seed
Colorado St vs San Francisco
Wyoming vs Davidson (A10)
Xavier vs Loyola
Iowa vs Notre Dame
8 seed vs 9 seed
Boise St vs Creighton
Marquette vs San Diego St (Mwest)
Murray State (OVC) vs St. Mary's
Seton Hall vs Iowa State
First Four Out
Rutgers
BYU
Oregon
Memphis
Next Four Out
Belmont
Michigan
Oklahoma
Virginia Tech
Also Considered
Miss St
UAB
St. Bonaventure
Cincinnati
Texas A&M
Colorado
West Virginia

Monday Bubble Games

As the season winds down posts will increase.  A new bracket is coming later today.  Bubble Games to watch tonight:

Indiana at Ohio State – The Hoosiers are firmly on the bubble.  Out as of the last bracket but all 4 of my last 4 in lost this weekend as well as Michigan and Rutgers.   A win probably puts them in.

Louisville at North Carolina – The Tar Heels are in my bracket but not in others.  Their profile is bare at the top and need every win

West Virginia at TCU – West Virginia is almost done and has to win every game.  TCU is probably a last 4 in team

Loyola at Illinois St – Loyola is probably safe but an autobid is the easiest path.

Saturday, February 19, 2022

The Committee Seeding Reval

Let’s dive in with the committee seedlings and KenPom numbers

West
1. Gonzaga (1)
2. Duke (10)
3. Illinois (15)
4. Texas (14)

Midwest
1. Auburn (5)
2. Purdue (13)
3. Texas Tech (12)
4. UCLA (11)

East
1. Kansas (6)
2. Kentucky (3)
3. Villanova (8)
4. Wisconsin (34)

South
1. Arizona (2)
2. Baylor (4)
3. Tennessee (9)
4. Providence (45)

Auburn gets rewarded with the region of death. No 1-seed wants to see UCLA on the 4-line.

Providence and Wisconsin have been amongst the luckiest teams in the nation this year, winning a lot of close games. 1-seeds should salivate seeing them on the 4-line as they would be easier Sweet 16 matchups and are more like to be upset in the opening two rounds.

Interestingly, since the seeding reveal began a few years back, no one has won a title that wasn’t a 1-seed in these reveals. The sample size is too small to consider it anything significant, but worth mentioning and monitoring.

Finally, if this were to hold, I’d be pretty tempted to take a flier and bet against Purdue in the 2-15 game.

Friday, February 18, 2022

Friday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs CleveSt(Hor)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern(SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Arizona (P12) vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kentucky vs Colgate (Pat)
Purdue (B1G) vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Yale (Ivy)
Texas Tech vs Texas St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Villanova vs Montana St(Bsky)
Baylor vs Liberty (Asun)
Wisconsin vs Wagner (NEC)
Providence (Beast) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Tennessee vs Vermont (Aeast)
UCLA vs Ohio (MAC)
Connecticut vs Iona (MAAC)
LSU vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Illinois vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Houston (AAC) vs Oklahoma/VaTech
Texas vs Oregon/Memphis
Alabama vs Davidson (A10)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Arkansas vs North Carolina
Marquette vs TCU
Ohio State vs North Texas (Cusa)
Xavier vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
Colorado St vs San Francisco
USC vs Creighton
Michigan St vs Miami
Notre Dame vs San Diego St (Mwest)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Boise St vs St. Mary's
Iowa vs Iowa State
Wyoming vs Murray State (OVC)
Seton Hall vs Loyola (Mvalley)
First Four Out
Michigan
Rutgers
Indiana
Wake Forest
Next Four Out
Belmont
UAB
Florida
Dayton
Also Considered
Miss St
Stanford
St. Bonaventure
Cincinnati
St. Louis
Texas A&M
Colorado
West Virginia
SMU

Monday, February 14, 2022

Monday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs CleveSt(Hor)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Tex.So (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Arizona (P12) vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Kentucky vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Baylor vs Longwood(Bsouth)
Purdue vs Yale (Ivy)
Duke (ACC) vs Texas St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Providence (Beast) vs Montana St(Bsky)
Villanova vs Liberty (Asun)
Illinois (B1G) vs Wagner (NEC)
Texas Tech vs New Mexico St (WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Vermont (Aeast)
UCLA vs Toledo (MAC)
Tennessee vs Iona (MAAC)
LSU vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Connecticut vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Houston (AAC) vs Wake Forest/Oklahoma
Texas vs SMU/Indiana
Alabama vs Davidson (A10)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Arkansas vs Creighton
Xavier vs Miami
Michigan St vs North Texas (Cusa)
Marquette vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
Colorado St vs San Diego St
Ohio State vs St. Mary's
USC vs Iowa State
Iowa vs TCU
8 seed vs 9 seed
Wyoming(Mwest) vs Murray State (OVC)
San Francisco vs North Carolina
Seton Hall vs Boise St
Notre Dame vs Loyola (Mvalley)
First Four Out
Oregon
Memphis
Virginia Tech
Michigan
Next Four Out
Belmont
UAB
Florida
Dayton
Also Considered
Miss St
Stanford
Utah State
Fresno St
St. Louis
Texas A&M
Washington St
West Virginia
Rutgers

Saturday, February 12, 2022

Mountain West

In Brian’s last bracket, he has 4 Mountain West teams in. The league has had a resurgence this year with 6 teams in the KenPom top 50. There isn’t a title team or Final 4 team in the league but it’s been a very good and fun league this year.

Colorado State was the early-season darling starting 11-0 before San Diego State brought them crashing down to earth. The Rams are still tied for 3rd in the league with the Aztecs. The Aztecs have the best KenPom defense in the nation and a 10-point win over St. Mary’s.


Boise State and Wyoming are tied for the league lead. The Broncos are 32nd in KenPom and the Cowboys  are 35th. They’ve already played twice this year and split the season series with each winning at home. Boise State’s best win out of league is over a solid Washington State team. Wyoming doesn’t have a great non-conference win, going 1-2 against the Pac-12.

Utah State and Fresno State are squarely on the bubble. It seems unlikely the league can get 5 teams but it’s a discussion the league hasn’t had in awhile. This will be a league to watch in March when league tournaments start. UNLV is good enough to steal a bid, too. Bubble teams outside the MWC will want one of the top 4 in this league to win the league tourney.

Friday, February 11, 2022

Friday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Longwood(BSouth)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Arizona (P12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kentucky vs Long Beach St (Bwest)
Wisconsin(B1G) vs Cleveland St(Hor)
Baylor vs Yale (Ivy)
Purdue vs App St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
UCLA vs Montana St(Bsky)
Duke (ACC) vs Liberty (Asun)
Villanova vs Wagner (NEC)
Providence (Beast) vs New Mexico St (WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Houston (AAC) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illinois vs Toledo (MAC)
Texas Tech vs North Texas (Cusa)
Texas vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Tennessee vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Marquette vs UAB/Florida
LSU vs BYU/San Deigo St
Connecticut vs Iona (MAAC)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Arkansas vs North Carolina
Xavier vs Notre Dame
Michigan St vs Oklahoma
Alabama vs Oregon
7 seed vs 10 seed
St. Mary's vs Boise St
Colorado St vs Indiana
Ohio State vs Wake Forest
USC vs Loyola (Mvalley)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Iowa vs Davidson (A10)
Iowa State vs Seton Hall
Wyoming(Mwest) vs San Francisco
TCU vs Murray State (OVC)
First Four Out
Creighton
Miami
West Virginia
Michigan
Next Four Out
Belmont
SMU
Memphis
St. Louis
Also Considered
Miss St
Stanford
Utah State
Fresno St
Virginia Tech
Cincinnati
Florida St
Texas A&M
Washington St

Saturday, February 5, 2022

San Francisco

At the beginning of the year, I was bullish on the WCC possibly getting 4 bids. As of yesterday, Brian’s bracket had 4 teams in the field. Among those is San Francisco. The Dons are no joke, sitting 26th overall in KenPom, smack dab in between Marquette and Wisconsin. They’re not a bracket buster, they’re one of the better teams in the country.

On offense, they’re 58th in efficiency. They’re 40th in effective fg%, shooting 34% from 3 and 55% from 2, 26th in the nation. They’re also a decent offensive rebounding team but a bit weak protecting the ball, 214th in turnover%. They don’t get to the line much and shoot poorly from there. The Dons are 249th in FT%.

San Francisco is 26th in defensive efficiency. They have the best effective defensive fg% in the nation. Teams only shoot 28% from 3, 13th best in the nation. The Dons are also a good at defensive rebounding as well. They’re 57th in defensive rebounding %. This is a good defensive team.

San Francisco has 5 losses on the season. Only 1 of them is “bad”. Grand Canyon is 105th in KenPom and the beat the Dons 49-48 in an ugly game in December. The other 4 losses were against top 35 teams. They have wins over Davidson, Fresno State and BYU. They’ll get 1 more crack at Gonzaga and St. Mary’s.

This is a veteran team. SR. Jamaree Bouyea leads them in scoring. He plays 91% of the minutes and shoots 40% from 3. Yauhen Massalski is one of the best rebounders in the country, averaging 9 boards per game along with scoring 14ppg. He’s also a good shot blocker. Khalil Shabbaz, another senior, averages 12ppg. Sophomore Julian Rishwain shoots 49% from 3 in a limited role.

Brian has them on the 8-9 line which is a tough spot. If they can get a couple of wins over Gonzaga or St. Mary’s and move up a line, they’d be a sneaky good pick for the second weekend. Heck, they might be able to do that as an 8 or 9.

Friday, February 4, 2022

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Longwood(BSouth)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Baylor vs Colgate (Pat)
Duke (ACC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Purdue vs CS-Fullerton(Bwest)
Kentucky vs Weber St (Bsky)
Arizona (P12) vs Princeton (Ivy)
Kansas (B12) vs App St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
UCLA vs Oakland (Hor)
Wisconsin vs Liberty (Asun)
Houston (AAC) vs Wagner (NEC)
Villanova vs New Mexico St (WAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Providence (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illiinois (B1G) vs Toledo (MAC)
Michigan St vs North Texas (Cusa)
Texas Tech vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Tennessee vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Xavier vs Creighton/BYU
Marquette vs Miami/San Diego St
LSU vs West Virginia
6 seed vs 11 seed
Ohio State vs Oregon
Connecticut vs Iona (MAAC)
Iowa State vs Oklahoma
USC vs Boise St(Mwest)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Alabama vs North Carolina
Texas vs Seton Hall
Colorado St vs Davidson (A10)
St. Mary's vs Wake Forest
8 seed vs 9 seed
Indiana vs TCU
Loyola (Mvalley) vs San Francisco
Iowa vs Murray State (OVC)
Arkansas vs Wyoming
First Four Out
Florida
Notre Dame
UAB
Miss St
Next Four Out
Michigan
Belmont
Florida St
Utah State
Also Considered
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Wednesday, February 2, 2022

Fatal Flaws: Purdue Defense

When the season started, I told Brian Purdue looked like a Final 4 teams. Wins over UNC and Villanova and routes in buy games clouded my vision. Now as we begin February, Purdue is still a capable Final 4 team but it’s probably not a serious title contender because of its defense.

They have the best KenPom offense. They have the 82nd best KenPom defense. When we dive into the Four Factors, only one number is super bad and that’s turnover %. Their effective fg% defense isn’t great but being 120th still makes them above average. They’re 339th in turnover %, 314th in steal % and 334th in non-steal to%. Teams simply don’t give Purdue extra possessions by turning it over.

Remarkably, they’re 26th in defensive rebounding % and 17th in FTA/FGA. If they just turned teams over, they’d be a national title contender. It’s an incredible weakness. Give their size, the rebounding being good isn’t a surprise. 43% of opponents shots are 3’s with that size pushing teams to the perimeter. Opponents get 37.5% of their points from 3 against Purdue. That puts them 311th I the nation in defensive 3PA/FGA. A team hitting 3’s against them will pose problems.

Using Bart Torvik’s resume match at barttorvik.com, the 10 most similar teams all made the Sweet 16 or better with 3 making the Final 4. His similar team profiles page isn’t as kind, though it shows 4 similar teams making an Elite 8, 2 of them being recent Purdue teams. I think the best comp is 2015 Notre Dame who was 2nd in KenPom offense and 99th in KenPom defense.

What does this mean? Well, Purdue can win some games in March and should be a second weekend team. The defense precludes them from serious title consideration but if that number gets into the 30’s by March, they’re a team that might look like Duke of 2015 instead of 2015 Notre Dame.