Monday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Longwood(BSouth)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Baylor vs Hawaii (Bwest)
Duke (ACC) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
UCLA vs Colgate (Pat)
Wisconsin (B1G) vs Weber St (Bsky)
Purdue vs Seattle (WAC)
Kentucky vs Arkansas St (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Princeton (Ivy)
Houston (AAC) vs Oakland (Hor)
Villanova vs Jax St (Asun)
Kansas (B12) vs Wagner (NEC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Providence (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Illinois vs Toledo (MAC)
Michigan St vs North Texas (Cusa)
Texas Tech vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
LSU vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Connecticut vs SanDiegoSt/Notre Dame
Iowa State vs UAB/BYU
Xavier vs Iona (MAAC)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Ohio State vs Oregon
Tennessee vs Wyoming
Marquette vs San Francisco
Miami vs Davidson (A10)
7 seed vs 10 seed
USC vs Wake Forest
Alabama vs West Virginia
Texas vs Murray State (OVC)
Colorado St vs Arkansas
8 seed vs 9 seed
Indiana vs Seton Hall
St. Mary's vs Oklahoma
Loyola (Mvalley) vs Boise St(Mwest)
Iowa vs North Carolina
First Four Out
TCU
Creighton
Florida St
Florida
Next Four Out
Miss St
Belmont
Michigan
Minnesota
Also Considered
SMU
Utah State
St. Louis
Fresno St
St. Bonaventure
Cincinnati
Memphis
VCU
Texas A&M
Washington St
Stanford
Virginia Tech

Early Bracket Breaker: Murray State

Earlier this week, Brian made some predictions about how the season plays out. My prediction is March Mayhem. There are going to be more over-seeded teams than any year I can recall. Let’s start taking a look at some teams that will ossicle benefit this March.

Murray State is no stranger to March Mayhem. They’re also a very good team this year. In their last season in the OVC, they are undefeated. They likely won’t go undefeated but outside Morehead State and Belmont who they throttled on the road, they should roll through the rest of the league.

The Racers are a very efficient basketball team. 41st overall in KenPom, they’re 47th in offense and 57th ind defense. They’re 40th in offensive fg% and have the 11th best offensive rebounding %. The only offensive weakness is bad FT shooting. They only make 67% of FTs. 

Defensively, they are good at turning teams over, 46th in turnover %. 91st in effective defensive fg%, that’s solid. Teams only shoot 29% from beyond the arc against them. 2pt defense is weak, 225th in 2pt %. They’re a little below average on the defensive glass, so size will be an issue for them.

KJ Williams and Tevin Brown are in their 4th seasons with the Racers. Williams is a high usage guy but very effective. He’s also their best glassman. Brown is a good defender and the Racers best threat from 3, shooting 40%. This is a veteran team who has been building to this season.

Brian has them as a 10-seed at the moment, right where they should be. No 7 or 2 seed will want to see them. They’ll have to win the OVC Tournament. They have a win over a mediocre Memphis team and that’s about it. That’s a tough task to have no room for an upset in league tourney play but if they get through, they’ll be a team to watch.

Friday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Longwood(BSouth)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Baylor vs UC-Fullerton (BigWest)
Kansas (B12) vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Arizona (P12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Wisconsin (B1G) vs Weber St (Bsky)
Duke vs Seattle (WAC)
UCLA vs South Alabama (Sbelt)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Purdue vs Princeton (Ivy)
Houston (AAC) vs Oakland (Hor)
Villanova vs Liberty (Asun)
Kentucky vs Wagner (NEC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Providence (Beast) vs Vermont (Aeast)
LSU vs Toledo (MAC)
Michigan St vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Texas Tech vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Ohio State vs UAB (Cusa)
Illinois vs Oregon/San Diego St
Tennessee vs Arkansas/Wyoming
Marquette vs Iona (MAAC)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Connecticut vs North Carolina
Iowa State vs Florida St
Loyola (Mvalley) vs Boise St(Mwest)
Miami vs Davidson (A10)
7 seed vs 10 seed
USC vs San Francisco
Xavier vs West Virginia
Alabama vs Murray State (OVC)
Seton Hall vs Creighton
8 seed vs 9 seed
Colorado St vs Iowa
Wake Forest vs Oklahoma
Texas vs BYU
St. Mary's vs Indiana
First Four Out
Notre Dame
Belmont
Michigan
Texas A&M
Next Four Out
Florida
Minnesota
TCU
Miss St
Also Considered
SMU
UCF
Utah State
St. Louis
Fresno St
Virginia
Memphis
Northwestern
St. Bonavanture
Cincinnati
Stanford

Mid-Season Guesses

Deep into January teams have begun to separate themselves.  Time for my mid-season Elite Eight, Final Four, and Championship Game picks.

 

Elite Eight:

Auburn vs Villanova

Duke vs UCLA

Baylor vs Kentucky

Gonzaga vs Connecticut

 

Final Four

Villanova vs Duke

Gonzaga vs Kentucky

 

Finals

Gonzaga over Duke

Monday Morning Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Winthrop(BSouth)/N.Orleans(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Arizona (P12) vs Arkansas St (Sbelt)
Baylor vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Wisconsin vs UC-Fullerton (BigWest)
Duke vs Weber St (Bsky)
Purdue vs Seattle (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
UCLA vs Princeton (Ivy)
Texas Tech vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Houston (AAC) vs Liberty (Asun)
Michigan St (B1G) vs Wagner (NEC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Villanova vs Vermont (Aeast)
Kentucky vs Toledo (MAC)
LSU vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Providence (Beast) vs Oakland (Hor)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Ohio State vs UAB (Cusa)
Illinois vs Boise St/Florida
Tennessee vs Oregon/TexasA&M
Alabama vs Wyoming (Mwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
USC vs Murray State (OVC)
Xavier vs San Diego St
Marquette vs Iona (MAAC)
Seton Hall vs Florida St (ACC)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Connecticut vs Oklahoma
Iowa State vs West Virginia
Loyola (Mvalley) vs Indiana
Miami vs San Francisco
8 seed vs 9 seed
Colorado St vs Davidson (A10)
Creighton vs Wake Forest
BYU vs Texas
Iowa vs St. Mary's
First Four Out
Minnesota
TCU
Miss St
Arkansas
Next Four Out
Belmont
St. Bonavanture
Cincinnati
Notre Dame
Also Considered
North Carolina
UCF
Utah State
St. Louis
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Memphis
Northwestern
Louisville
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Fresno St

Wake and Bake

 Editor’s Note:  I apologize to Villanova fans for writing about them and apologize in advance to Wake Forest

I’ve noted the ACC isn’t very good this year. One of the pleasant surprises has been Wake Forest. The Deacons are 15-4 and 5-3 in conference. As we near February, Coach Steve Forbes has Wake positioned to make their first tournament appearance since 2017.

Wake sits at 41 in KenPom entering today. They’re similar on offense and defense, 55th and 49th respectively. They're 26th in offensive effective fg%, largely on the strength of having the 5th best 2-pt shooting team in the nation. They're only 232nd in 3pt shooting. They don’t rebound the offensive glass and are average in protecting the ball. It’s a good offense, not great.

On defense, the Deacons are 46th in effective fg%. They don’t force turnovers but they are very good on the glass, 58th best in rebounding %. Again, good, not great but much better than what they’ve been in the last decade or so.

Milwaukee native, Alondes Williams is their best player.  The Riverside product scores 20ppg and adds 6.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists. He’s a hooper. He’s a high volume shooter and has high usage but is still an efficient player. Jake LaRavia is 34th in the nation in effective fg%. There are a lot of veterans on this team with upperclassmen playing the bulk of the minutes.

KenPom projects them to finish 22-9, 12-8 in league. They’re probably a weekend one team but Deacons fans will take it. 

Friday Bracketology

 1 seed vs 16 seed
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Winthrop(BSouth)/TAM-CC(Sland)
Auburn (SEC) vs Southern (SWAC)/UNCW(CAA)
Arizona (P12) vs Texas St (Sbelt)
Baylor vs Norfolk St (MEAC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas (B12) vs Colgate (Pat)
Wisconsin vs UC-Fullerton (BigWest)
Purdue vs Weber St (Bsky)
Purdue vs Seattle (WAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
UCLA vs Princeton (Ivy)
Texas Tech vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
Kentucky vs Liberty (Asun)
LSU vs Wagner (NEC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Houston (AAC) vs Vermont (Aeast)
Villanova vs Ohio (MAC)
Michigan St vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Illinois (B1G) vs Oakland (Hor)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Ohio State vs LaTech (Cusa)
Providence (Beast) vs Wyoming/Oregon
Xavier vs UAB/Boise St
Alabama vs Florida State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Iowa State vs Murray State (OVC)
Tennessee vs San Diego St (Mwest)
Loyola (Mvalley) vs Iona (MAAC)
USC vs Texas A&M
7 seed vs 10 seed
Connecticut vs Oklahoma
Seton Hall vs San Francisco
Marquette vs Indiana
Miami (ACC) vs Davidson (A10)
8 seed vs 9 seed
Colorado St vs Wake Forest
Creighton vs Texas
West Virginia vs St. Mary's
Iowa vs BYU
First Four Out
Florida
Fresno St
Minnesota
St. Bonavanture
Next Four Out
Belmont
Miss St
Cincinnati
TCU
Also Considered
North Carolina
UCF
Utah State
St. Louis
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Memphis
Northwestern
Louisville
St. John's
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Arkansas
Notre Dame

Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss: Villanova

Earlier this season, I saw Villanova mightily fight Purdue to the wire in a loss. My inclination at the time was they were an ok team but no threat come March. Add a loss to Baylor on December 12th where they only scored 36 points in a 21-point drubbing that was followed up by a 20-point loss at Creighton and part of me wondered if they were even a tournament team.

Well, fast forward a month later and this is a Final 4 capable team. They’re 7th in AdjustedO and 13th in AdjustedD. They’re riding a 6-game winning streak as they enter tonight’s game against Marquette and currently favored in every game left on their schedule. As they say, ‘Nova comin’.

When we think of Nova, we remember the national title teams with crazy good offenses. The offense remains quite efficient. They don’t turn it over and they rebound their misses. They’re 16th in turnover % and 56th in offensive rebounding %. They don’t get to the line often but are 4th in the nation in FT%. They still love the 3-ball. 39% of all points come from beyond the arc and they shoot 36% Fromm their, 58th in the nation.

The effective fg% is 51.8%, which is ok. That’s 100th in the land. What’s interesting is, they’re one of the slowest teams around, 355th in pace. They are glacially slow. What does this mean? A good defensive team like Baylor can hold them to 36 on a bad shooting night. What helps offset this some, is the rebounding on the offensive glass. Still, there’s a lot of Virginia in them.

The defense is good enough. They don’t do anything extraordinarily well but don’t have any deficiencies. This isn’t a defense that will wow you but it won’t cost them many, if any, games.

This is also a veteran-laden squad. The majority of the minutes are going to juniors and seniors outside sophomore Eric Dixon. Dixon is starting to assert himself as a force and is the next great Nova player. They also have welcomed back former Burger Boy, Bryan Antoine. He’s only played 6 games but as he gets into game shape, he could be a difference maker as the season moves along. Up and down the lineup, you find incredibly solid basketball players. This is the team coaches want to emulate.

Nova is probably the most improved team since November. They’re capable of making the Final 4. Tempo and that 36 point game give me pause, but as built and as improving, it seems that game is the outlier. They’re the leaders of the Big East and have the opportunity to get a top seed come March.

Monday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Baylor (Big12) vs G.Webb (BigSouth)/Nicholls St (Sland)
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Southern (SWAC)/Howard (MEAC)
UCLA vs Louisiana (Sbelt)
Arizona vs Drexel (CAA)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Duke vs Princeton (Ivy)
Kansas vs Liberty (Asun)
Purdue vs Weber St (Bsky)
MichiganSt (B1G) vs Vermont (Aeast)
3 seed vs 14 seed
USC (Pac12) vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
Auburn (SEC) vs Navy (Pat)
LSU vs UC-Irvine (BigWest)
Villanova (Beast) vs Wagner (NEC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Ohio St vs Ohio (MAC)
Houston (AAC) vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Kentucky vs Oakland (Hor)
Iowa State vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wisconsin vs LaTech (Cusa)
Xavier vs Iona (MAAC)
Loyola (Mvalley) vs Louisville/Texas A&M
Illinois vs Minnesota/UAB
6 seed vs 11 seed
Alabama vs Belmont (OVC)
Tennessee vs Davidson (A10)
Texas vs San Diego St (Mwest)
Texas Tech vs St. Mary's
7 seed vs 10 seed
Miami (ACC) vs Marquette
Seton Hall vs Wake Forest
Providence vs Creighton
North Carolina vs San Francisco
8 seed vs 9 seed
Iowa vs Florida
BYU vs Connecticut
Oklahoma vs Colorado St
West Virginia vs Indiana
First Four Out
Murray St
Memphis
Virginia Tech
Miss St
Next Four Out
TCU
UCF
Cincinnati
VCU
Also Considered
Monmouth
St. Bonaventure
Utah State
DePaul
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Boise St
Northwestern
Clemson
St. John's
Wyoming
Michigan
Fresno St

Friday Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed
Baylor (Big12) vs G.Webb (BigSouth)/Nicholls St (Sland)
Duke (ACC) vs Southern (SWAC)/Howard (MEAC)
Gonzaga (WCC) vs Louisiana (Sbelt)
Kansas vs N.Colorado (Bsky)
2 seed vs 15 seed
UCLA vs Princeton (Ivy)
Arizona vs Liberty (Asun)
Purdue vs James Madison (CAA)
MichiganSt (B1G) vs Vermont (Aeast)
3 seed vs 14 seed
USC (Pac12) vs Grand Canyon (WAC)
Auburn (SEC) vs Navy (Pat)
LSU vs UC-Irvine (BigWest)
Villanova vs Wagner (NEC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Iowa State vs Ohio (MAC)
Houston (AAC) vs Chattanooga (SoCon)
Alabama vs Oakland (Hor)
Ohio St vs S.Dakota St (Summit)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Kentucky vs UAB (C-USA)
Tennessee vs St. John's (Beast)
Texas vs Miss St/TCU
Xavier vs Belmont (OVC)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Illinois vs Iona (MAAC)
Loyola (Mvalley) vs Davidson (A10)
Wisconsin vs Louisville/Marquette
Colorado St(Mwest) vs San Diego St
7 seed vs 10 seed
Connecticut vs Wake Forest
Seton Hall vs San Francisco
Texas Tech vs Creighton
Providence vs St. Mary's
8 seed vs 9 seed
Iowa vs Florida
BYU vs Minnesota
North Carolina vs Indiana
Oklahoma vs West Virginia
First Four Out
Murray St
Fresno St
Virginia Tech
Miami
Next Four Out
Texas A&M
UCF
Cincinnati
Memphis
Also Considered
Monmouth
St. Bonaventure
Utah State
DePaul
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Louisiana Tech
Northwestern
Clemson
VCU
Wyoming
Michigan
Boise St
Arkansas

Monday Morning Bracketology

1 seed vs 16 seed

Baylor (Big12) vs Campbell (BigSouth)/Nicholls St (Sland)

Duke (ACC) vs T.Southern (SWAC)/Howard (MEAC)

Gonzaga (WCC) vs Louisiana (Sbelt)

Purdue vs Princeton (Ivy)

2 seed vs 15 seed

Arizona vs N.Colorado (Bsky)

MichiganSt (B1G) vs Liberty (Asun)

UCLA vs Navy (Pat)

Kansas vs UC-Irvine (BigWest)

3 seed vs 14 seed

USC (Pac12) vs New Mexico St (WAC)

Houston (AAC) vs Ohio (MAC)

Ohio St vs Vermont (Aeast)

Villanova vs Wagner (NEC)

4 seed vs 13 seed

Auburn (SEC) vs Towson (Col)

Kentucky vs Chatanooga (SoCon)

Alabama vs Oakland (Hor)

LSU vs S.Dakota St (Summit)

5 seed vs 12 seed

Iowa State vs UAB (C-USA)

Tennessee vs Iona (MAAC)

Texas vs Davidson (A10)

Xavier vs Belmont (OVC)

6 seed vs 11 seed

Illinois vs TCU/UCF

Texas Tech vs Creighton/S.Diego St

Providence (Beast) vs St. Mary's

Uconn vs Arkansas

7 seed vs 10 seed

Loyola (Mvalley) vs Creighton

Seton Hall vs Virginia Tech

Colorado St(Mwest) vs Indiana

Iowa vs Michigan

8 seed vs 9 seed

Wisconsin vs San Francisco

BYU vs West Virginia

UNC vs Florida

Oklahoma vs Minnesota

As We Enter 2022

 Welcome to 2022. Let’s jump in and see where we are as enter the heart of conference play.

The Contenders

These are the teams that currently profile as legitimate national title contenders. For me to consider a team, they must have a top-20 KenPom offense or defense. As of January 2, these are the teams that fit that profile.

Baylor, 5th AdjO, 4th AdjD

Gonzaga, 2nd AdjO, 14th AdjD

Houston, 7th AdjO, 5th AdjD

Duke, 6th AdjO, 21th AdjD

Kentucky, 8th AdjD, 18th AdjD

Auburn, 21st O, 6th AdjD

UCLA, 14th AdjO, 19th AdjD

21 is good enough since Baylor was 21st on defense last year.

The Flawed

Purdue is the best offense in the land but 60th in defense

Kansas is 3rd in AdjustedO but 32nd in defense 

LSU is 1st in AdjustedD but 80th in offense 

Tennessee is 2nd but 43rd in offense