Utah State

It’s Aggie time. Utah State currently has a 1/2 game lead in the last year of the Mountain West as we know it. They’re up to 25th in KenPom, 27th on offense and 39th on defense. Jerrod Calhoun is the coach and given his background, a guy who Cincinnati and Ohio State might give a looksy should they make a move this off-season.

With 57.8% real shooting, 13th in the nation, the offense is quite good. They’re 8th in 2-pt shooting % and 80th in 3-pt shooting. The highest volume 3-point shooters are all 37% or better, so while 80th overall isn’t great, the core shooters are good. You’d like to see better turnover numbers but they do assist on 59% of makes. Their big folly on offense is weak FT shooting. They get to the line at an ok number but they’re 239th in FT % shooting.

Defensively, they’re 18th in turnover % and 59th in real shooting % defense. That mix is pretty good. Their weakness is they foul too much. They’re 269th in FTA/FGA. They’re also mediocre on the glass. Would be nice to see those 2 areas cleaned up.

MJ Collins paces them with 18ppg. Mason Falslev averages 16ppg and 5.7 boards per game while shooting 39.5% from 3 and getting 2.2 steals per game. Drake Allen and Elijah Perryman run the point and are quite adept at it. Allen averages 5 assists per game along with 2 steals per game. If you like guard play, this team has it.

The non-con wasn’t great with their best win over VCU and a loss to USF. It’s not a bad non-con schedule, they’re just not going to get anyone from the Big 5 to play them, so they scheduled a good amount of solid mid-majors. They play Memphis this Saturday. That’s a good scheduled game you’d think but the Tigers aren’t holding up their end of the donkey.

Brian has them on the 8-9 line and it doesn’t seem likely they get much higher without running the table. There’s enough parity in the league that’s unlikely but they’re worth monitoring should they get up to the 6 or 7 line.

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 3

 

Connecticut – Uconn just took a loss to St. John’s last Friday night so now seems like a good time to talk about them.  Their offense efficiency according to KenPom is below what you would like from a title contender, sitting at 27 but overall they are 8^th.  Torvik and the NET also have them slotted at 8 and both losses are against Quad 1 opponents.  The early season loss to Arizona was without 2 starters and again, it was against Arizona.  I’m still high on the Huskies even in a barren Big East.

Verdict: Contender...for now

Kansas – How can you actually make a prediction about Kansas with Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup?  Hard to make a guess when you don’t know who is going to be on the court and who’s not.  What I do know is Peterson, while the best player in college, is 100% managing his playing time in an effort to get to the NBA healthy and get that rookie contract.  Do you know what players who do that in college do when they get a rookie contract?  They manage their playing time until they get an extension.  And when they get an extension it’s the same behavior until they get a max-contract.  And by then they have a label of a player not interested in winning.  I also question whether he loves the game.  Super talent and the NBA will love him but he will frustrate every franchise he plays for.

Verdict: They should allow players to go directly to the NBA.  And Kansas is a pretender but I’m impressed with how they’ve played with this circus.

Michigan State – Tom Izzo this, Tom Izzo that.  I keep hearing the podcasts talk about how he does so much with less talent than every other team year in and year out.  If he’s so good how come he constantly has “less talent” than other blue bloods?  He’s got 1 Final Four in 10 years and Jeremy Fears is AS dirty as Grayson Allen

Verdict:  Pretender and not making the 2^nd weekend

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. California/Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Clemson  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Wisconsin
7. Iowa  vs  10. Indiana
8. N.C. State  vs  9. UCLA
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Georgia
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. UCF
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - George Mason

The Contenders

Asked last night who my Final 4 was and I was slow to respond. Probably because I always want to think of some unlikely Final 4 team. Yes, that could happen but let’s take a look at the real title contenders. One of these teams is likely to win it all. All are Top-20 offense and defenses.

Arizona - At a loss of superlatives at the moment. Largely steamrolling opponents. Just don’t do anything poorly. Barring injury, anything short of a regional final will be a massive disappointment.

Michigan - Currently up double-digits with 7 minutes left in Columbus. Well-balanced team that has responded to its hiccups after the calendar turned to 2026. Will be battle tested.

Duke - Heartbreaker last night. Lack of another offensive option was exposed last night late. Bit discouraging to see that UNC defense do that to them. Final 4 good but don’t see a title.

Houston - Offense, shooting in particular worries me but it has been gradually improving through Big XIIIII play. Still plays good defense. If the shooting continues to improve, they’ll be a legit title threat. If it stalls or regresses, that’ll be their doom.

Iowa State - Great response after some rough play. They can win it all. FT shooting is bad. Don’t get to the line and when they do, they’re not good but with the 7th best real shooting %, will it matter?

Florida - Don’t look now, but the defending champs are squarely in the mix. Can’t shoot the 3, though. Probably limits them from defending. Let’s see how that looks as we get into March.

Vandy - Fading? The defense is up and down. Not a threat but like I said a few weeks back, they’re building something in Nashville.

Iowa - Huh. Top 20 d and o. The defense is built upon turning teams over. 116th real shooting % defense isn’t good enough. It’s built upon teams missing 3’s, so not probably even that good. Still, seeing them here is something. Sweet 16 feels like the ceiling but given the Fran years, what an accomplishment that would be.

Others: 

Illinois - Last night’s loss exposed the question about them, the defense. It’s 22nd in KenPom, so that’s good but given up 85 points, even in overtime, to Michigan State isn’t a good look. A Final 4 run won’t surprise me but someone will out score them.

UConn - 306th in tempo, 27th in offense. Great defense can carry them. Problem on offense is free throw numbers across the board. Bit sloppy with the ball, too. Fascinating team to watch in March. Could do just about anything. Get upset early, make a run to the Final 4.

Purdue - Elite offense, good defense. Not a title contender but a Final 4 is doable. Head to Nebraska and Iowa and host Michigan in the next 3 games. Let’s see how the defense performs in those games

St. John’s - On a 9-game winning streak. Hovering around the top-20 in both offense and defense. So-so shooting team. Get a lot of second chance opportunities and to the line. Bullies on the offensive glass, terrible on the defensive glass. Sweet 16 ceiling, imo.

Virginia - Probably not. Sweet 16 is the ceiling. Again, that would be a great season given expectations.

Monitoring: Kentucky and UNC

College Basketball Rivalries

Thinking about the Carolina-Duke game today, it dawned on me, the college basketball rivalries feel dead to me outside this game. Am I right? I’m not sure but I’ll write my way through my thinking.

I think Duke and UNC are the starting point. For 30+ years, this has been the ultimate rivalry. Great teams, big games, true hate. Duke and UNC also engendered in ACC opponents a sense of rivalry, even if it was one-sided in nature. As the goliaths of the ACC, beating either was a big deal. Maryland games against these teams was must-see-TV. 

Mentioning Maryland brings me to what has probably caused the biggest decline in the rivalry games, conference realignment. Maryland’s hatred of Tobacco Road can’t be recaptured in the Big 18. Think UCLA-Arizona. Maybe not the most notorious rivalry, those were still big games out west.

The Big East has this problem as well. The entirety of the league had a common enemy in Syracuse. As the league broke up, one common theme emerged, everyone was sad to see the Orange leave because the members all liked beating them. Georgetown’s trip to the abyss hasn’t helped but a decade into the new league, it lacks the juice of the Orange.

That’s the ACC’s issue, too. As a smaller league, Tobacco Road was the enemy. Now? It’s a mishmash of schools dotted across the landscape. Beating Duke and UNC still means something but what about the other dozen + teams extending from the Bay Area to Dallas to Miami to Upper NY? 

The Big XIIIII still has Kansas. Beating the Jayhawks is still a badge of honor in the league but they don’t have a Missouri to get their blood boiling. Maybe Arizona-Kansas can become a thing but I doubt it. 

I thing the Big 18 might still have some bad blood rivalries. Michigan-Michigan State hate each other. Indiana-Purdue-Illinois show signs of redeveloping a true hatred of each other. Unfortunately, the league is so bloated, there is way too many “shoulder shrug” matchups. 

I have a lot of old man complaints about college sports and understand the leagues do not care about the fans. This is the one that bugs me the most. Maybe after decades of matchups, things can develop but I doubt the radical reconstruction of college sports allow it to naturally happen. That’s too bad. Good sports hate make it better for the fans, respectfully, of course. While alive in football, it feels much different in college hoops.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. North Carolina Central/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Austin Peay
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Santa Clara
6. Clemson  vs  11. New Mexico/Miami Fl
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Ohio St.
6. Alabama  vs  11. Saint Mary's
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. USC
7. N.C. State  vs  10. UCLA
8. UCF  vs  9. Georgia
8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Akron

Also Considered - George Mason

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 2

 

Iowa State – Outside of a two-game slide where the Cyclones lost at Kansas and at Cincinnati Iowa State has been riding high.  Major metrics say this team is a threat to win the title and I agree.  Top 5 in the NET, Torvik, and KenPom say all that needs to be said from the computers.  As for the eye test; they pass that too.

Verdict: Contender

Houston – Year after year Houston remains in the title contender conversation.  Last year they made it to the championship game, perhaps this year is the year they win it all.  The Cougars only have 2 loses, at Texas Tech and on a neutral court versus Tennessee.  They are top 10 in all performance metrics although KenPom has them predicted to take 4 more losses this season.  I don’t see that happening and with their schedule, going 2-2 in that time frame is a win.  Kingston Fleming is the real deal.

Verdict:  Contender

BYU – BYU has lost 3 of their last 4 but still remain 15^th at KenPom and the NET.  Torvik has them at 27 and I have to lean with Torvik on this one.  Their defense doesn’t seem to track high enough to make a Final Four run and I actually don’t see them making the second weekend.  AJ Dybansta is going to be a stud in the NBA but a good 13 seed or 5 seed in the second round is going to drive them into fast stupid shots and the upset will hit.

Verdict:  Pretender