Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Prairie View A&M
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. Idaho
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Kennesaw St.
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. UMBC
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Siena
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Tennessee St.
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Penn
3. Purdue  vs  14. Troy
4. Nebraska  vs  13. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Virginia  vs  13. Hofstra
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kansas  vs  12. High Point
5. Wisconsin  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Miami OH/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. VCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Villanova  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Georgia  vs  9. Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Also Considered - West Virginia

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Also Considered - Virginia Tech

Also Considered - California

Selection Sunday

 The day of Selection is upon us.  There are 5 games left in the regular season and it appears only 1 viable bid stealer is still hanging around.  I'm looking at you Dayton.  Texas and SMU will be watching on tightly as they are the two most likely to be cut.  Should be a fun day of basketball.  Final bracket soon.

Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Southern
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. UMBC
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Louisiana Tech
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Siena
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Idaho
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Troy
3. Purdue  vs  14. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Virginia  vs  13. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Tennessee  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. VCU/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Miami OH
7. Villanova  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Ohio St.  vs  9. Georgia

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Bids and More

 Lots of solid action yesterday as the conference tournaments wind down.  11 Bids go out today and there are a lot of 1 vs 2 seeds.  It should make for some great action later tonight.  The day starts out this morning with UMBC vs Vermont and ends with Cal Baptist vs Utah Valley.  It will be a great day to sit, relax, and watch some basketball.

Those who won't be relaxing are SMU, Texas, and Missouri.  I have all 3 team in right now but there are some bid stealers still alive.  The biggest one today is San Diego State, who is my first team out.  They play Utah State in the Mountain West Championship and a win there will push out a team.  Right now I'm leaning Texas but it's worth a second or third look.

Other bid stealers out there are from the A-10 and SEC. Mississippi is streaking and would need to beat Arkansas today and probably Florida tomorrow.  Not impossible but not likely either.  The A-10 has St. Joseph's vs VCU and Dayton vs Saint Louis.  Dayton or St. Joe's could take a spot up with 2 wins.

A new Bracket will come out later today but until then, enjoy the games

The Historically Weak Bubble

Brian knows better than me, but barring bid thievery in the A-10, AAC and Mountain West, the bubble looks like it has played itself out. Is this the weakest bubble yet?

We tend to hear that yearly, so I typically dismiss it to recency bias but I saw something last week that piqued my interest. An argument was made that the use of the portal hasn’t just hurt mid-majors but also has hurt power conference teams. The argument is, the talent has been accumulated more tightly on teams and the bubble teams are simply worse because the teams are worse. Makes sense when you say it out loud.

In 2016, the top ranked KenPom team was Villanova at +32.01.  25th was Vandy at +18.76, a difference of 13.25. This year, Duke is +39.26 and Iowa is +22.40, a difference of 16.86. Take it out further to 50 and it’s 17.86 vs. 23.59. The gap between the top teams and the chasers in the middle is widening. 

Now, this is cherry-picking on my part just doing a 10-year gap. It’s hardly conclusive but does underly the idea of a weaker bubble. It also illustrates how teams are adapting to the analytics era of the sport but that’s a different topic. Teams are playing more efficiently but the talent gap is widening from the top down.

There’s also an argument to be made about bloated conferences as well. Uneven conference schedules doesn’t help. Without true round robins, I believe the conferences are cannibalizing one another in some instances. The SEC is a good example this year. When you have one alpha, Florida, and the rest are good but not great, you get what you get this year. A lot of bubble teams eating one another instead of allowing for separation. When every game and multiple teams are bubble busters, sooner or later, you’re a dog chasing the bubble.

What’ll happen is, leagues and teams will understand what’s happening and begin to game the system. I’m not sure what that’ll look like but it’ll happen.

Miami and the Bubble

Miami OH lost yesterday and that will shrink the bubble by 1 spot.  I really believe they are safe and are probably not even in the play in game.  I hope the committee doesn't so something stupid and leave them out.  With that loss, Akron moves into the bracket slotting as a 12 seed.  This does 2 things to the current bracket.  First South Florida moves up to an 11 seed and second, San Diego State falls out.  My last 4 teams in are now:

VCU, Texas , SMU, and Missouri

VCU still has games left but the other 3 are done.

On the outside of the bubble my first four out are:

Auburn, San Diego State, New Mexico, and Oklahoma

Auburn is done but the other 3 all have games left and could get an auto-bid.  It's not unthinkable that any 3 of those teams could make their conference final and sneak in as well.  I hope Auburn's 17-16 record is too much for the committee to swallow.

Outside of those teams I think the only other bid stealers out there are Seton Hall in the Big East, and any team not named VCU or Saint Louis in the A-10.  I suppose Nevada could also get the Auto-bid in the Mountain West too.  Their resume would be bubble worthy when the NCAA expands to 76 teams, sigh 

Day Game Action

As I mentioned in the earlier post, the bubble is getting very small and there aren’t a lot of games that will have an impact.  There are some so let’s highlight the day games.

Umass vs Miami OH – I really shouldn’t have to put this here, but the committee can and will be dumb.

Kentucky vs Missouri – Mizzou is one of my last 4 in.  If they lose and Auburn wins it might be bad for one of the Tigers.

Creighton vs Seton Hall – I took another look at the Pirates resume and I just don’t see it.  But, I already typed this out.

Auburn vs Tennessee – If we ignored actual wins and losses this team’s metrics puts them in easily.

UCF, Ohio State, and NC State appear to be safe but best not lose by 20+ this morning.