The Sad State of the Bubble

I've been hesitant to start highlighting bubble games so far because quite frankly, the bubble is essentially garbage this year.  Among bracketologists there really are only about 5-6 teams that are floating above and below the cutline.  The consensus is very clear at this point that Ohio State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State, and USC are all on the outside looking in.  The next four out are also very clear, and most of these teams may not even be able to play themselves into the bracket without winning out to their Conference Tournament Championship games.  This group includes Seton Hall, VCU, Oklahoma State, and your choice of a Mountain West team not named New Mexico. 

That being said the 6 teams that are vying for those last 5 spots in order are TCU, Santa Clara, California, Missouri, New Mexico, and Indiana.  None of these teams really wow you and they all have glaring issues in their resume.

TCU - Pros: 4 Q1 win, Cons: a Q3 and Q4 loss

Santa Clara - Pros: 8-5 in Q1/Q2 and top 40 NCSOS, Cons: a Q4 loss

California - Pros: 4-5 in Quad 1, Cons: 281 in NCSOS and a KP of 68

Missouri - Pros: 8-9 in the first two Q, Cons: 51 in WAB (Wins Above Bubble)

New Mexico - Pros: 7-1 in Q2, Cons: Only 2 Q1 wins and a Q3 loss

Indiana - Pros: Top 45 in most metrics, Cons: Only 2-10 in Q1 games

This is remarkably worse than in years past, and the teams in my first four out and next four out are clearly behind them.  In all fairness, the last 4 bye teams, UCLA, Texas, Auburn, and Texas A&M don't really jump off the page at you either.  I know the committee will expand no matter what the numbers say as they are chasing the almighty dollar but if we were at 76 teams this year, the bubble would consist of team sitting at .500 on the year.  Gross

Monday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
2. Purdue  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Florida  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. California
6. BYU  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Texas
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. Indiana
8. Clemson  vs  9. Georgia
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Iowa
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. SMU  vs  9. UCF

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - West Virginia

Top 16 Vibes

Let’s look at Brian’s Top-16 based on seeding and check their vibes heading towards March. A contender or pretender edition.

Arizona - Vibes are better after a win at Houston. Still a contender.

Duke - Sky high vibes. The loss to UNC sucked but didn’t really derail the goal of a regular season title and 1-seed. They have the best player in the nation, a player good enough to carry a team to a title. 

Michigan - Vibes are still high. Losing by 5 to Duke in the middle of the Big 18 season is a disappointment but winning in Mackey big earlier this week keeps them atop the league and keeping a 1-seed.

Houston - Lukewarm vibes. Back-to-back losses to Iowa State and Arizona aren’t bad losses but losing streaks aren’t good for the vibes.

UConn - Better after beating Nova but losing to a mediocre Creighton team at home? Bad vibes, man.

Iowa State - Wins at home over Kansas and Houston followed by a loss at BYU. Vibes are fine.

Illinois - Vibes are sinking. 3 overtime losses in the last 5. Big 18 titles just about snuffed out. Defensive concerns real.

Florida - Sky high vibes. Offense is performing better, shooting has improved but 3PT % still woof. On the way to an SEC title.

Kansas - Vibes crashing. Home loss to Cincinnati. Best player unreliable. Upset fodder opening weekend.

Nebraska - Vibes flattening. 3-4 in their last 7, west coast trip awaits them after a home tilt against Maryland. Offense not good enough.

Gonzaga - Vibes are on cruise control until the tournament. Playing fine. Not sure what they are.

Purdue - Vibes are mostly good. Non-competitive home loss to Michigan exposes their ceiling but blew out their rival Friday night in a nice bounce back win.

Michigan State - Izzo is March vibes are just about here.

Virginia - Vibes are comebacks. Another double-digit comeback win yesterday, 3rd of the year. Year of Living Dangerously. Usually, the final vibe is bad.

Alabama - Won 6 in a row after being blown out by Florida, so vibing in the right direction. Terrible defense will crush the vibe but enjoying the ride at the moment.

Vandy - Teetering after back-to-back losses. 8-6 after the calendar turned. Vibes feel like doom.

What is Syracuse?

Syracuse is currently on the way to another loss to a Tobacco Road team. A loss today would drop Syracuse to 15-13 overall and 6-9 in the ACC. With no avenue to the NCAA Tournament without an unlikely ACC Tourney win, it begs the question, what is Syracuse?

This is Adrian Autry’s third and likely last season as the head coach of Syracuse. Replacing a legend is never easy but the decline of Syracuse began before Autry got the job.

Since joining the ACC in the 2013-14 season, Syracuse will have missed the tournament more than they have made it. In fact, in the decade Jim Boeheim coached in the ACC, the Orange missed the tournament as much as they made it. In their last 5 seasons in the Big East, the Orange made 4 Sweet 16’s and a Final 4.

There are a lot of poster child’s for the negative consequences of chasing football dollars. The Orange have Pitt joining them in the ACC as schools miscast in a league. Is that the reason? It’s easy to say it is but given UConn’s ascension back to the top of the college basketball world after returning to the Big East, it is worth asking.

Autry is almost certainly going to be fired. It’s not a lack of talent acquisition. HS recruiting and transfer portal recruiting hasn’t been elite but it’s been good enough they should be much better than they have been. Gerry McNamara will be a popular name. Longtime assistant and playing legend, he is the head coach at Siena and they’ve been very improved over his first season. The question that will be asked, do you want to go to that same well as you did with Autry.

The other name will be Josh Schertz, a Brooklyn native. If he wants to leave St. Louis, he’ll have his pick of jobs. Given the jobs to likely to be open, this might be the best depending on the dominoes. The coaching chops are there but he hasn’t been somewhere that requires high level recruiting. Of course, he can alleviate that with top assistants but it will be a legit concern.

A lot of things have lead Syracuse to this point. A legend head coach who lost his fastball at the end of his tenure. Misfire on the replacement. Chasing football dollars lost their basketball identity. The days of relevancy over. They’ll need to hit on this hire or they’ll be Nebraska football. Wandering aimlessly trying to recapture long lost glory.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Southeast Missouri
1. Duke  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Houston  vs  16. LIU
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Florida  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Virginia  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Belmont
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Yale
5. BYU  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. TCU
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/Missouri
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. Georgia
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. UCF
8. Clemson  vs  9. SMU
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Iowa  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Indiana  vs  9. Texas

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Contenders and Pretenders Part 4

 Well, I spent about 30 minutes this morning typing out today's article and when I came back to my computer it was gone.  It today's computer environment I can't believe it didn't auto-save or auto-recover but here we are.  I'm not retyping the whole thing so here's a summary:

Duke - Contender but I have guard concerns.  Saturday vs Michigan will be a great look to see if they are Final Four ceiling or title ceiling

Illinois - Defense isn't good enough to win a title but a win at USC with Wagler struggling says they can get to the Final Four.

Florida - the Florida hype train is in full effect.  Can't just ignore the first 10 games because they look unstoppable now.  I'm still concerned about the guards but they can contend.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. NJIT/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Florida  vs  14. South Alabama
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. TCU
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Santa Clara/Georgia
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. UCF
7. N.C. State  vs  10. SMU
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Iowa  vs  9. Texas
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Missouri

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia