Top 16 Vibes

Let’s look at Brian’s Top-16 based on seeding and check their vibes heading towards March. A contender or pretender edition.

Arizona - Vibes are better after a win at Houston. Still a contender.

Duke - Sky high vibes. The loss to UNC sucked but didn’t really derail the goal of a regular season title and 1-seed. They have the best player in the nation, a player good enough to carry a team to a title. 

Michigan - Vibes are still high. Losing by 5 to Duke in the middle of the Big 18 season is a disappointment but winning in Mackey big earlier this week keeps them atop the league and keeping a 1-seed.

Houston - Lukewarm vibes. Back-to-back losses to Iowa State and Arizona aren’t bad losses but losing streaks aren’t good for the vibes.

UConn - Better after beating Nova but losing to a mediocre Creighton team at home? Bad vibes, man.

Iowa State - Wins at home over Kansas and Houston followed by a loss at BYU. Vibes are fine.

Illinois - Vibes are sinking. 3 overtime losses in the last 5. Big 18 titles just about snuffed out. Defensive concerns real.

Florida - Sky high vibes. Offense is performing better, shooting has improved but 3PT % still woof. On the way to an SEC title.

Kansas - Vibes crashing. Home loss to Cincinnati. Best player unreliable. Upset fodder opening weekend.

Nebraska - Vibes flattening. 3-4 in their last 7, west coast trip awaits them after a home tilt against Maryland. Offense not good enough.

Gonzaga - Vibes are on cruise control until the tournament. Playing fine. Not sure what they are.

Purdue - Vibes are mostly good. Non-competitive home loss to Michigan exposes their ceiling but blew out their rival Friday night in a nice bounce back win.

Michigan State - Izzo is March vibes are just about here.

Virginia - Vibes are comebacks. Another double-digit comeback win yesterday, 3rd of the year. Year of Living Dangerously. Usually, the final vibe is bad.

Alabama - Won 6 in a row after being blown out by Florida, so vibing in the right direction. Terrible defense will crush the vibe but enjoying the ride at the moment.

Vandy - Teetering after back-to-back losses. 8-6 after the calendar turned. Vibes feel like doom.

What is Syracuse?

Syracuse is currently on the way to another loss to a Tobacco Road team. A loss today would drop Syracuse to 15-13 overall and 6-9 in the ACC. With no avenue to the NCAA Tournament without an unlikely ACC Tourney win, it begs the question, what is Syracuse?

This is Adrian Autry’s third and likely last season as the head coach of Syracuse. Replacing a legend is never easy but the decline of Syracuse began before Autry got the job.

Since joining the ACC in the 2013-14 season, Syracuse will have missed the tournament more than they have made it. In fact, in the decade Jim Boeheim coached in the ACC, the Orange missed the tournament as much as they made it. In their last 5 seasons in the Big East, the Orange made 4 Sweet 16’s and a Final 4.

There are a lot of poster child’s for the negative consequences of chasing football dollars. The Orange have Pitt joining them in the ACC as schools miscast in a league. Is that the reason? It’s easy to say it is but given UConn’s ascension back to the top of the college basketball world after returning to the Big East, it is worth asking.

Autry is almost certainly going to be fired. It’s not a lack of talent acquisition. HS recruiting and transfer portal recruiting hasn’t been elite but it’s been good enough they should be much better than they have been. Gerry McNamara will be a popular name. Longtime assistant and playing legend, he is the head coach at Siena and they’ve been very improved over his first season. The question that will be asked, do you want to go to that same well as you did with Autry.

The other name will be Josh Schertz, a Brooklyn native. If he wants to leave St. Louis, he’ll have his pick of jobs. Given the jobs to likely to be open, this might be the best depending on the dominoes. The coaching chops are there but he hasn’t been somewhere that requires high level recruiting. Of course, he can alleviate that with top assistants but it will be a legit concern.

A lot of things have lead Syracuse to this point. A legend head coach who lost his fastball at the end of his tenure. Misfire on the replacement. Chasing football dollars lost their basketball identity. The days of relevancy over. They’ll need to hit on this hire or they’ll be Nebraska football. Wandering aimlessly trying to recapture long lost glory.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Howard/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Southeast Missouri
1. Duke  vs  16. Merrimack
1. Houston  vs  16. LIU
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Florida  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Virginia  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Alabama  vs  13. Liberty
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. St. John's  vs  12. High Point
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. Belmont
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Yale
5. BYU  vs  12. South Florida
6. Louisville  vs  11. TCU
6. Arkansas  vs  11. UCLA/New Mexico
6. North Carolina  vs  11. Santa Clara/Missouri
6. N.C. State  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. Georgia
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Auburn
7. Utah St.  vs  10. UCF
8. Clemson  vs  9. SMU
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Iowa  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Indiana  vs  9. Texas

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - USC

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Contenders and Pretenders Part 4

 Well, I spent about 30 minutes this morning typing out today's article and when I came back to my computer it was gone.  It today's computer environment I can't believe it didn't auto-save or auto-recover but here we are.  I'm not retyping the whole thing so here's a summary:

Duke - Contender but I have guard concerns.  Saturday vs Michigan will be a great look to see if they are Final Four ceiling or title ceiling

Illinois - Defense isn't good enough to win a title but a win at USC with Wagler struggling says they can get to the Final Four.

Florida - the Florida hype train is in full effect.  Can't just ignore the first 10 games because they look unstoppable now.  I'm still concerned about the guards but they can contend.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. NJIT/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Florida  vs  14. South Alabama
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Michigan St.  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. TCU
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Santa Clara/Georgia
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/San Diego St.
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Wisconsin  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. UCF
7. N.C. State  vs  10. SMU
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Miami Fl
8. Iowa  vs  9. Texas
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Missouri

First Four Out - Ohio St.

Next Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Syracuse

Also Considered - West Virginia

Villanova

The Big East isn’t very good this year. UConn and St. John’s sit atop the league. UConn is Final 4 good, St. John’s is rolling but has warts too ugly to overlook. Third in the league is a familiar face that has bounced back from the Kyle Neptune experience. The Villanova Wildcats and Kevin Willard are looking to get back to the tournament and are in good shape to do so.

The Wildcats are currently 26th in KenPom. 31st in offense and 32nd in defense, this team screams being somewhere in the 7-10 area of seeding. Their best win is a “neutral court” win in Milwaukee over UW-Madison. After that, sweeping the season series against Seton Hall are their next two best wins. A home date this weekend with UConn awaits and a trip to MSG against the Johnnies next weekend gives them two more chances at good wins.

The roster is a nice blend of transfers and freshmen. Redshirt frosh Matthew Hodge and silky smooth PG frosh Acaden Lewis look like classic Nova players. Big man Duke Brennan from Grand Canyon provides the muscle and Devin Askew from Long Beach State has added a threat from 3.

In the Four Factors, Nova doesn’t do anything exceptionally. They’re a weak defensive rebounding team and do not get to the foul line. This isn’t a sleeper to make a deep run. What it is, is a building block. Assuming they keep Lewis and Hodge along with junior guard, Tyler Perkins, they’ll have pieces to build around.

I wouldn’t expect them to make the second weekend. I do expect them to be much better in 2027 and a threat in the league. Whether Willard has Jay Wright’s ceiling as a coach, I doubt, but he is at a place that can and wants to compete for national titles. He no longer has any excuses. It will be fascinating to watch play out.

One Month to Go!

 We are one month to Selection Sunday so now is a good time to predict the Final Four again.  Going back my preseason Final Four were Michigan, Houston, Duke, and Texas Tech.  That’s not bad and I would have stuck with the first three for sure but after Texas Tech knocked off Arizona last night it might make sense to keep them in as well.  However, I’m not going to let one game sway me back to my original Four yet. 

Thinking through the season so far, I think there is a large range of teams that can make the Final Four and after last season, where all #1’s made it, I think there will be a surprise or two.  As I mentioned I have Duke, Michigan, and Houston as 3 of my 4 and those are 2 1seeds and 1 2 seed.  I currently have Texas Tech as a 4 seed, but I can see them replacing Michigan State at the 3 line in the next bracket.  That would be a minor upset as a 3 seed but, I’m not going there now.  St. John’s has been hot lately and Florida is everybody’s darling at the moment.  I can make a case for the Gators but once again that’s an easy way out.  Instead, I’m going to go out on a limb and lean on my ACC bias and select Virginia as my 4^th Final Four team.  I like what I see out of them and it’s great to see actual basketball being played at Virigina instead of the garbage that the previous coach tried to shove down our throats.  This might be a reach, but I don’t want to be like everybody else and take the same 4 out of 5 teams as my prediction (most people sprinkle in Florida or Connecticut.

Final Four 1 Month Out:

Duke
Michigan
Houston
Virginia