Open Night - 5 Weeks Away

It seems like football just started but we are less than 5 weeks away from the 1st game of the College Basketball season.  The first game of the season is Sunday, November 1 as Villanova plays Notre Dame in Rome, Italy.  That is followed by a 24 hour marathon on November 2 starting with High Point vs Liberty at 12:01am.

The blog will be up and running for the 2026-2027 season.  Season Previews will be coming soon and my Bracketology file has already been updated to account for, sigh, 76 teams.

Meet the New Boss

Thoughts on the weekend include the vast difference of how the national champion won the title. A complete beatdown of one of the best teams in the nation in a game that was breathtaking for the ease at which Michigan dismantled whatever Arizona tried doing. Then, finding a way to win getting dragged into the mud by UConn, whose game plan was simple and effective. How Michigan won last night versus Saturday is so stark, that it’s a true testament to what a good basketball team they were.

Quick aside, Danny Hurley is a certifiable lunatic but great for the sport. What a brilliant coaching job getting this team to the title game and being in it to the end. As long as he’s at UConn, they’ll always be a threat.

I’ve seen some talk of this Michigan team being an all-timer. The numbers certainly support it but as I wrote a month back or so, roster construction has widened the gap between good and elite. I think comparing this team to Villanova of ‘18 or Kentucky of ‘12 or UNC of ‘09 isn’t fair. Different rules and simply put, a different era.

That gets to the crux of the state of the sport. The Big 18 and SEC are widening the gap between themselves and the rest of the conferences. I don’t think this is a one-off. Forget the TV money, the rich alum, especially in the Big 18 are going to have such an advantage on the rest of the sport, I’m not sure how the Big XIIIIII, ACC and Big East compete against the deeper pockets.

Now, each league will have teams with big budgets. Duke and Carolina will never be outbid for players. Nor will Kansas. Texas Tech has oil money pouring into the athletic department but I think the bigger picture is, most members of those leagues are facing uphill battles. 

Cincinnati and Xavier could compete against Ohio State in Ohio but the money cannon in Columbus dwarfs those schools. Iowa State is staring straight down a rejuvenated Iowa whose alum base and money is far greater. You get the point. It’s going to take a lot of pieces to fit for some of these schools to compete at that level. Coach, university alignment, alum willing to match what the money schools can and so on. 

Money has always been the dominant factor in college athletics. Duke has been bathing in Nike money for decades. It matters. It won’t happen because the SEC and Big 18 won’t let it, but collective bargaining is the answer. It’s a new era and that era is going to be dominated by the Evil Empire, the Big 18 and to a lesser extent, it’s apprentice, the SEC.

Final 4: Looking Back, Looking Forward

The Sins of the Father

The big takeaway from the Duke-UConn result hasn’t been about UConn’s tenacity or fight, but Jon Scheyer’s team blowing a big lead. In a HOT TAEK world, we have to give our hot take and this one is on a platter.

Scheyer lives in a shadow that he helped create. He’ll forever be hated simply for winning a title at Duke and having the audacity to be their head coach. So, in his failure, many find joy. It takes me back to when I wrote something similar when Kentucky didn’t complete their perfect season, we hate winners and we hate those that win too much. I get why people hated Coach K at the end and Scheyer gets that thrust on him before really “earning” the hate. Trust me, there was a time people liked Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

The book on Scheyer is just starting. His predecessor knows better than anyone the failure of March before the joy of victory. Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, John Calipari, Nolan Richardson and so on, all knew the hot take world before the breakthrough. Unfortunately for Duke and Scheyer, until they/he does breakthrough, the questions about him as a coach will remain because we are fundamentally stupid when it comes to nuance and quite frankly, reality. Anyone that has watched Scheyer develop as a coach knows this, he can coach. But that doesn’t sell and isn’t an interesting perspective.

The Weekend That Was

Nobody was terribly surprised that Illinois wore down Iowa. Illinois benefited from great matchups in their region. More on this later, too. To their credit, they took advantage of the matchups and return to the Final 4 for the 1st time in two decades.

Arizona looked mortal for a half and then throttled Purdue. Purdue shot 50% from 3 in the 1st half and then 1 for 8 in the second half. The Wildcats defense stuffed Purdue into the garbage and Purdue’s defense got exposed. I’d mark this one down as an important loss in the Matt Painter era. Pre-season number 1 failed to make Indy and they lose a lot. Very curious to see where they head from here.

Brian texted me during the Michigan game after they jumped out big. I knew this would be a laugher and went golfing instead of watching. It’s a shame Joshua Jefferson got hurt. Credit to Tennessee for making another Elite 8 but they were just a speed bump for this Wolverine squad.

Final thought on Duke-UConn. I thought the turning point was the final 4 minutes of the first half. Duke went cold and while UConn only cut it to 15 from 19, it sure felt like ol’ Mo had switched sides. Not blaming injuries here, UConn is good and a worthy Final 4 team, but it would have been nice to see Caleb Foster at 100%.

The Final 4: Initial Blush

The crowds should be wild. It’s largely corporate nowadays but all 4 schools travel well. Good luck getting a reasonable ticket. And if the final is Michigan-Illinois, ticket prices will be the highest they’ve ever been on the secondary market.

Michigan-Arizona will be regarded as the de facto title game and very well might be. This is a great matchup. I wonder if Zona has enough offense to match Michigan. I wonder if Michigan can hold Arizona in check on the glass. Toss the ball up because it’s a pick ‘em.

Illinois-UConn hinges on whether UConn can do enough offensively against Illinois. I think this is a pretty good matchup for the Illini in that regard. Tarris Reed has probably been the best player in March and can absolutely match Illinois inside. He’ll have to be a bully. UConn beat them by 13 earlier in the year but the guards looked better back then. I think I lean Illinois but UConn is UConn. Another pick ‘em.

Elite 8: Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Meet the new boss, same as the old boss, the losers lament.

1. Nebraska - It’s hard to be critical of Nebraska. First tournament wins ever and a Sweet 16 appearance. Magical season in Lincoln.

2. Texas - Hard to be critical of Texas, either, but Sean Miller comes up short in a big moment again. Not having the big man out there, especially against that Purdue team was certainly a choice. 

3. Houston - If we’ve said it once, we’ve said it a million times, the offense will let them down. Efficient through the course of the season, always susceptible in a single-elimination tournament. To only score 55 against that Illinois team is quite the achievement. No sugarcoating it, losing to them isn’t a shame, losing that way is.

4. Arkansas - Back-to-back Sweet 16’s, can Cal take the next step here? He’ll have to fix the defensive side of the the ball, a year after the offense was the issue. Been sometime since one of his teams has been championship good on both sides of the ball.

5. St. John’s - The Johnnies actually made buckets last night. It was their issue the last two seasons. Pitino needs better backcourts or their ceiling is quite limited. He was a bit cantankerous in the postgame about Duke bullying them after they got up 10. The bully hates being bullied.

6. Alabama - Roster issues again. Coach is responsible for how he builds his roster and with who. Another year, more drama. Plus, time to find an assistant to fix the defense.

7. Michigan State - Sparty hasn’t been to the Final 4 since 2019. They’ll be a trendy pick next year assuming Fears is back but we can retire the “Izzo is March” nonsense. Haven’t had a top-20 offense since Covid.

8. Iowa State - Offensive bugaboos caught up to them. Was better through the course of the season and not having Jefferson makes this hard to grade but 15-25 from the line and 22% from 3 sounds like how we’d expect them to get knocked out. Absolutely bullied by the Vols. Second weekend might be the ceiling in Ames.

Elite 8 Thoughts

Iowa-Illinois is such a classic Big Ten matchup. Old rivalry with a trip to the Final 4 on the line. Super cool matchup for fans of the real Big Ten, not the Frankenstein league it is.

Purdue-Arizona is about stopping the oafish Purdue team. This Purdue team is wholly unlikable and way more representative of the 21st century Big 18. Arizona has a lot of demons to slay tonight.

Duke-UConn is another classic matchup. They’ve played some memorable March games but it’s been a minute since they’ve met. Met 4 times between 90-04 in the tournament, splitting, with UConn winning on the final weekend twice and Duke winning twice on the second weekend. Basketball schools unapologetically meeting for a trip to the Final 4 the way it should be.

Michigan-Tennessee is the shoulder shrug matchup. The Vols can physically match Michigan, something the Wolverines really haven’t dealt with yet in the tourney but the Vols offense is not good. Completely predicated on second chance points, if they can get Mara in foul trouble and make it a slog, they can finally make a Final 4 but it’s sure feels like Michigan is playing with its food right now waiting for the main course.

Looking back, Looking ahead

I’d have been better off just saying what I’ve believed all year, the tournament would be chalk but that’s boring. Welp, while we had some great games, it was largely chalk.

Each region has 1-non protected seed. The East has St. John’s, a 5-seed who beat Kansas. The only people surprised by this are rabid Jayhawks fans. In the Midwest, Virginia lost to Tennessee, the 6-seed, who entered the tournament 16th in KenPom, which if we re-seeded that way, they’d have been a 4. Your outliers are out West where we have this year’s Cinderella, the school with the biggest athletic budget in the nation. In the South, Iowa’s win was shocking but they would’ve been a 6 using KenPom for seeding purposes and at one time, were top 20 in offense and defense this year. That game is worthy of a deep dive and I’ll be very curious about Iowa moving beyond 2026. They’ve basically switched bodies with Wisconsin and that will be fascinating to watch play out.

We’re probably a year away from making a definitive statement about the lack of upsets the last two years. I’ll caution anyone who makes too big a deal out of this year. Conference tournament upsets cost us a few really good regular season champs. Don’t know if those teams would have won but the seed lines from 12-15 would have looked much different and that matters! Whatever the case, expansion is a terrible idea.

Let’s now re-seed the remaining 16:

1. Michigan (1)

2. Arizona (2)

3. Duke (3)

4. Houston (4)

5. Illinois (6)

6. Iowa State (7)

7. Purdue (8)

8. Michigan State (9)

9. UConn (10)

10. Alabama (12)

11. Nebraska (13)

12. Tennessee (14)

13. St. John’s (16)

14. Arkansas (17)

15. Iowa (22)

16. Texas (31)

Teams Left With Defensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Purdue, Illinois, Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Texas 

Teams Left With Offensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Michigan State, UConn, Nebraska, Tennessee, St. John’s, Iowa 

Illinois and Michigan State are just outside looking in here. 

Illinois-Houston is a national title game in the Sweet 16 good and the best matchup. The worst matchup is Texas-Purdue.  The craziest matchup is Nebraska-Iowa.  The old school matchup is Duke-St. John’s. The best bowl game is Michigan-Alabama. Final 4 rematches of yore are Michigan State-UConn and Arkansas-Arizona. And then there is Iowa State-Tennessee 🤷🏼‍♂️

Final thought is about the weekend schedule and how the first two games of the day are in the same region. I understand the desire to get as many games into prime time and fill the whole day but I think staggering start times beginning at 1PM EST and 2PM EST in separate regions and having 2nd game tips in those regions at around 3 and 4PM EST would be ideal and repeat until 8PM EST. Tipping near 10PM EST is ridiculous, especially on Sunday. Realistically, the second games in each region won’t start on time anyway, so you’ll bleed well into the evening and maximize prime time. 

BRACKET ANALYSIS

Read this and make some cash.

No reseeding this year. I haven’t looked but I bet 68 out of 68 teams correctly picked by bracketologists was at an all-time high. And while there are quibbles about where teams were located and some seeding quibbles, I don’t have a lot of complaints.

A few bold predictions (Do I believe them? Maybe):

1. No 4 or 5 seeds lose in round 1. The 12’s and 13’s are historically bad this year and it’ll be chalky Thursday and Friday.

2. People keep saying Duke has the hardest path of the 1-seeds but neither UConn or Michigan State make the Sweet 16 alleviating some stress and while I have the 4 and 5 surviving, they aren’t real threats to Duke.

3. East sleeper is Northern Iowa. Yes, that’s a 12-seed but if there is a 12-seed that makes noise, it’s them.

4. The South is interesting in that Houston could have a home game against Florida in the regional final but it won’t matter as St. Mary’s knocks off the Cougars in round 2 and make the regional final.

5. Nebraska wins a tournament game and makes the Sweet 16. If they beat Florida in that round, St. Mary’s makes the Final 4. If Florida beats Nebraska, they make the Final 4.

6. The Midwest feels like the chaos region. Michigan loses in round 2 to either Georgia or SLU. Santa Clara shocks Iowa State.

7. Miami beats SMU and then beats Tennessee but loses to eventual Final 4 participant Virginia. Texas Tech makes the regional final without Toppin.

8. The West is maybe wild. Purdue loses in round 2. Way too much being made of the Big 18 Tournament. Trendy picks based on conference tournament runs are very boom or bust and I’m betting this is a bust. 

9. Arkansas/Wisconsin/High Point matchups yield a game where both teams hit 100. Seeing a lot of complaining about Wisconsin’s seed, location and tip time. Poor babies having to travel all the way to Portland and play at 10:50 local time and only having 4 days off. Hope they can handle such adversity. 🙄

10. Final 4 is Duke, Arizona, Florida and Virginia. Duke beats Arizona for the title 

Things that won’t surprise me:

1. All 1-seeds make the Final 4

2. I’m completely wrong on the 12 + 13 prediction and that is blown up completely by the end of play Thursday.

3. Big 18 and SEC lays an egg. Big 18 has a problem and that problem is the awful officiating within the league. It is arguably one of the biggest disservices to them when it comes to March. The officiating in Chicago last week was abhorrent. The SEC doesn’t have any elite teams outside Florida.

4. On the other end, the Big XIIIIII has half the Elite 8.

5. All 14-seeds make the 3-seeds sweat in round one and 2 of the 15-seeds take 2-seeds to the wire but ultimately, no upsets.

See y’all soon.

Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Prairie View A&M
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. Idaho
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Kennesaw St.
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. UMBC
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Siena
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Tennessee St.
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Penn
3. Purdue  vs  14. Troy
4. Nebraska  vs  13. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Virginia  vs  13. Hofstra
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kansas  vs  12. High Point
5. Wisconsin  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Miami OH/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. VCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Villanova  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Georgia  vs  9. Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Also Considered - West Virginia

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Also Considered - Virginia Tech

Also Considered - California