Sweet 16 Super Picks

BYU vs. Bama- It’s kind of eerie how similar Bama and Wisconsin are in hoops. Things that make you go hmmmmm. If Bama turns it over like they did against St. Mary’s, they’ll lose this one. BYU will get buckets. Purely vibes say: BYU 100 Alabama 92

Arizona vs. Duke- Yes, Arizona beat Duke that one time in a Sweet 16 like 14 years ago. Ain’t happening again. Purely vibes say: Duke 85 Arizona 70

Maryland vs. Florida- Both kind of feel like they had their bullet dodging game in round 2. So, that said, what do the numbers tell us? There isn’t a lot that separates them. Both are in the margin of error for national title contenders based on KenPom numbers. Florida is definitely better but this is a toss up, imo. I’ve been wrong about Florida all year. Purely vibes say: Maryland 79 Florida 78

Texas Tech vs. Arkansas- I was Tech before the season, so forget anything else. Purely vibes say: Texas Tech 72 Arkansas 64

Reseed that Sweet 16

Felt like a chalky year. Turned chalky in March. Is it a new era of chalk? Maybe? Before we jump to a conclusion, let’s give it time. 

1. Duke (1 KP)- Best team in the nation doesn’t break a sweat through 2 rounds. 

2. Houston (2)- Zags made them sweat but Houston held on. Not sold they aren’t the first 1 seed to lose.

3. Florida (3)- UConn wasn’t going to go quiet. A better defensive team might have beaten them yesterday but Florida didn’t waver. They keep proving me wrong.

4. Auburn (4)- Did what they had to. Creighton couldn’t match the size or athleticism. Michigan uglies them up, it’ll be interesting to see how they respond.

5. Tennessee (5)- Too much of everything for a game UCLA squad. Kentucky next who went 2-0 against the Vols during the season.

6. Alabama (6)- Anyone other than St. Mary’s and Bama might lose that game. Gaels simply aren’t a team that could take advantage of the turnovers because of how they play and can’t match Bama athletically when they don’t turn it over. BYU can beat them.

7. Michigan State (7)- Blah. Get Ole Miss instead of Iowa  State. About right.

8. Texas Tech (8)- Grant McCasland can coach. Red Raiders do so much well.

9. Maryland (10)- First blip on the KP versus team left scale. Just a really good team and very tough test for a 1-seed in the Sweet 16. Florida will have earned a regional final if they win this game.

10. Arizona (13)- Thanks for playing. 

11. Kentucky (15)- Feels like this is the point where they get off the train. Love the future but think the Vols bring a lot of revenge pain in this one.

12. Purdue (16)- How the hell are they in Indy against Houston? Pretty rude for the Cougs.

13. Michigan (20)- Just happy to be here and dumb enough to stay.  Could lose by 25 or win because Auburn gets stuck in the mud with them. 

14. Ole Miss (21)- Would love to see them, of all teams, beat Michigan State. Not likely, but know Chris Beard won’t be out coached in this one.

15. BYU (24)- BYU polo arrives soon. Dick punchers in football and hoops, the offense is so good, it’s covered up the defense. Think that can work against Bama. 

16. Arkansas (36)- Like so many Calipari teams, you see such great potential, but you just wait for the inevitable disappointment. Exposed St. John’s mediocre offense. Doubt Texas Tech lets that happen.

Bracket Breakdown Boffo Bonanza

Well, we know UNC is going to a Sweet 16 at least. Up for a prop bet? 12’s and 13’s go 8-0 in the opening round. If there were ever a year for that to happen, this would be it. Now, is it likely? Absolutely not. I don’t have a fancy algorithm but I’d give it a .001% chance. But, if it does, I’ll edit this here post. 

After that, this year feels chalky with regards to the likely Final 4. My other sorta bold prediction is we don’t have anything other than 1’s and 2’s in the Final 4. Chaos may reign opening weekend but by the end, it’s chalky.

14 SEC teams calls for a predicted record and I’ll say 21-14, 2 Final 4 teams with 1 in the final game and 7 sweet 16 teams.

East Region-

Under seeded: VCU at 11.  31 in KenPom, they should probably be on the 8-9 seed line, so it’s not terrible but they avoid Duke this way and can beat anyone else between 3 and 10.

Over seeded: Oregon at 5. 33 in KenPom, they are asking to get knocked out early.

Brian’s beloved Gaels are here and draw a favorable matchup with Vandy. They also avoid Grant Nelson. If this Gaels team can’t make a Sweet 16, they may never do it again.

Soft region and no excuse for Duke not to roll through this. 

West Region-

Under seeded: Missouri is a 6 and 15 in KenPom. A possible round 2 matchup with Texas Tech would involve 2 KenPom top-15 teams. 

Over seeded: Memphis at 5. They’re 50 in KenPom. They open against Colorado State who is 44 but seeded correctly. If Memphis makes the Sweet 16, Jesus take the wheel.

I really like St. John’s here. Arguably the most improved team in the nation from November. I’ve slept on Florida all year, though, and they’re just really freaking good. A potential matchup against Maryland in the Sweet 16 would be a super fun game.

Couple of blue bloods are hanging out here in Kansas and UConn and I like both to win their opener. Will make for fascinating narratives in round two. Just don’t think either have ever figured out what and who they are this year.

South Region- 

Under seeded: The answer is no one really. You can argue Louisville should be a 6 and I think the committee got their line wrong. They do suffer for it, though. A win and Auburn awaits but still, I think Louisville fan is thrilled with where they are at and going.

Over seeded: Michigan, kind of. Michigan fan would tell you they should be a 4, computers say 6 or 7. But a lot of close wins will fluff the record but not the computer numbers. I don’t expect a long stay in the tournament.

Talk about a blah region. Your 2-5 seeds play underwhelming offense. Iowa State is 21 in AdjO but haven’t been good for 6+ weeks on that side of the ball. Is this a take a flier region?  Yeah, I think so. However…

I’ll be shocked if it isn’t Auburn or Sparty coming out of here. But as I said, I think this region would be the most likely to send someone to an unlikely Final 4.

Midwest-

Under seeded: It’s Gonzaga. The computers have loved them all year and they’re 9th in KenPom. I’ve developed a thesis that they’ll breakthrough and win a title (that is, if they ever do) when we least expect it. If they somehow beat Houston, I’m just saying.

Over seeded: Kentucky is 16 in KenPom and a 3-seed. It’s not egregious and has as much to do with 14 SEC teams making it as much as anything. Outside Gonzaga, this looks like a balanced region as far as correct seed lines.

This is actually Houston’s best offense under Kelvin Sampson. They’re 4th in 3PT %. They just don’t shoot a lot of them and they still play glacially slow. If they lose to Gonzaga, should they face them in round 2, it’ll be because they miss a lot of 3’s and can’t pull away. Makes note to check this later.

Think Tennessee comes out of here and finally makes its first Final 4 ever. Just don’t see much standing in their way until the regional final.

FWIW, Final 4 is Duke, St. John’s, Auburn and Tennessee. Duke cuts down the nets.

Backup Final 4 is Arizona, Florida, Michigan State and Gonzaga

Backup backup Final 4 is BYU, Texas Tech, UNC and Houston

Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. Alabama St./American
1. Auburn  vs  16. SIUE/Mount St. Mary's
1. Houston  vs  16. Saint Francis
1. Florida  vs  16. Bryant
2. Alabama  vs  15. Montana
2. Tennessee  vs  15. Nebraska Omaha
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Wofford
2. St. John's  vs  15. Norfolk St.
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. Robert Morris
3. Kentucky  vs  14. Lipscomb
3. Wisconsin  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
3. Oregon  vs  14. Troy
4. Maryland  vs  13. Akron
4. Iowa St.  vs  13. Yale
4. Texas A&M  vs  13. Grand Canyon
4. Oregon  vs  13. High Point
5. Purdue  vs  12. Liberty
5. Louisville  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Mississippi  vs  12. UC San Diego
5. Arizona  vs  12. Drake
6. Clemson  vs  11. Colorado St.
6. BYU  vs  11. Indiana/Texas
6. Memphis  vs  11. Vanderbilt/San Diego St.
6. Saint Mary's  vs  11. VCU
7. Marquette  vs  10. Oklahoma
7. Missouri  vs  10. Baylor
7. Kansas  vs  10. Utah St.
7. Gonzaga  vs  10. West Virginia
8. Creighton  vs  9. Arkansas
8. Mississippi St.  vs  9. Illinois
8. UCLA  vs  9. Georgia
8. New Mexico  vs  9. Connecticut
First Four Out - Boise St.
First Four Out - Xavier
First Four Out - North Carolina
First Four Out - Ohio St.
Next Four Out - Dayton
Next Four Out - North Texas
Next Four Out - Wake Forest
Next Four Out - UAB

VCU is...

 In.  And that saves 1 big decision.  2 spots:

Boise State

Pro - 7-7 Q1-Q2 record, 79 NCSOS.  Con - Q3 loss, Q4 loss

Indiana

Pro - 8-13 Q1-Q2 record 56 NCSOS.  Con 4-13 Q1 record.

Xavier 

Pro - been hot lately, 9-11 Q1-Q2 record.  Con 2-9 in Q1

Texas

Pro - 7-10 in Q1, not bad losses.  Con - NCSOS 215

2 spots.....looking at it now it might end up being Texas and Indiana

Sunday

5 games left until the Selection show.  We have one bid stealer alive in UAB.  I believe VCU needs to win to be in.

I think there are two open spots right now, which will go down to 1 if UAB wins.

That spot(s) are going to be fought over between Indiana, Boise St. and Xavier.  Boise St has a Q4 loss and looked bad yesterday.  All of Indiana's losses have come in Q1 but 4-13 isn't pretty.  Xavier is 2-9 in Q1.

  Right now I have them ranked Indiana, Xavier, Boise State, with the intention of relooking at Texas as well.

Currently....

The last spot is going to Indiana over Xavier.  Need to keep an eye on Boise St. vs Colorado St. as the loser might be out.  

Memphis needs to win otherwise that's a bid stolen.  VCU probably needs to win to get in.  They have a Q4 loss and that's ugly