Looking back, Looking ahead

I’d have been better off just saying what I’ve believed all year, the tournament would be chalk but that’s boring. Welp, while we had some great games, it was largely chalk.

Each region has 1-non protected seed. The East has St. John’s, a 5-seed who beat Kansas. The only people surprised by this are rabid Jayhawks fans. In the Midwest, Virginia lost to Tennessee, the 6-seed, who entered the tournament 16th in KenPom, which if we re-seeded that way, they’d have been a 4. Your outliers are out West where we have this year’s Cinderella, the school with the biggest athletic budget in the nation. In the South, Iowa’s win was shocking but they would’ve been a 6 using KenPom for seeding purposes and at one time, were top 20 in offense and defense this year. That game is worthy of a deep dive and I’ll be very curious about Iowa moving beyond 2026. They’ve basically switched bodies with Wisconsin and that will be fascinating to watch play out.

We’re probably a year away from making a definitive statement about the lack of upsets the last two years. I’ll caution anyone who makes too big a deal out of this year. Conference tournament upsets cost us a few really good regular season champs. Don’t know if those teams would have won but the seed lines from 12-15 would have looked much different and that matters! Whatever the case, expansion is a terrible idea.

Let’s now re-seed the remaining 16:

1. Michigan (1)

2. Arizona (2)

3. Duke (3)

4. Houston (4)

5. Illinois (6)

6. Iowa State (7)

7. Purdue (8)

8. Michigan State (9)

9. UConn (10)

10. Alabama (12)

11. Nebraska (13)

12. Tennessee (14)

13. St. John’s (16)

14. Arkansas (17)

15. Iowa (22)

16. Texas (31)

Teams Left With Defensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Purdue, Illinois, Alabama, Arkansas, Iowa, Texas 

Teams Left With Offensive Concerns (Non Top-20)

Michigan State, UConn, Nebraska, Tennessee, St. John’s, Iowa 

Illinois and Michigan State are just outside looking in here. 

Illinois-Houston is a national title game in the Sweet 16 good and the best matchup. The worst matchup is Texas-Purdue.  The craziest matchup is Nebraska-Iowa.  The old school matchup is Duke-St. John’s. The best bowl game is Michigan-Alabama. Final 4 rematches of yore are Michigan State-UConn and Arkansas-Arizona. And then there is Iowa State-Tennessee 🤷🏼‍♂️

Final thought is about the weekend schedule and how the first two games of the day are in the same region. I understand the desire to get as many games into prime time and fill the whole day but I think staggering start times beginning at 1PM EST and 2PM EST in separate regions and having 2nd game tips in those regions at around 3 and 4PM EST would be ideal and repeat until 8PM EST. Tipping near 10PM EST is ridiculous, especially on Sunday. Realistically, the second games in each region won’t start on time anyway, so you’ll bleed well into the evening and maximize prime time. 

BRACKET ANALYSIS

Read this and make some cash.

No reseeding this year. I haven’t looked but I bet 68 out of 68 teams correctly picked by bracketologists was at an all-time high. And while there are quibbles about where teams were located and some seeding quibbles, I don’t have a lot of complaints.

A few bold predictions (Do I believe them? Maybe):

1. No 4 or 5 seeds lose in round 1. The 12’s and 13’s are historically bad this year and it’ll be chalky Thursday and Friday.

2. People keep saying Duke has the hardest path of the 1-seeds but neither UConn or Michigan State make the Sweet 16 alleviating some stress and while I have the 4 and 5 surviving, they aren’t real threats to Duke.

3. East sleeper is Northern Iowa. Yes, that’s a 12-seed but if there is a 12-seed that makes noise, it’s them.

4. The South is interesting in that Houston could have a home game against Florida in the regional final but it won’t matter as St. Mary’s knocks off the Cougars in round 2 and make the regional final.

5. Nebraska wins a tournament game and makes the Sweet 16. If they beat Florida in that round, St. Mary’s makes the Final 4. If Florida beats Nebraska, they make the Final 4.

6. The Midwest feels like the chaos region. Michigan loses in round 2 to either Georgia or SLU. Santa Clara shocks Iowa State.

7. Miami beats SMU and then beats Tennessee but loses to eventual Final 4 participant Virginia. Texas Tech makes the regional final without Toppin.

8. The West is maybe wild. Purdue loses in round 2. Way too much being made of the Big 18 Tournament. Trendy picks based on conference tournament runs are very boom or bust and I’m betting this is a bust. 

9. Arkansas/Wisconsin/High Point matchups yield a game where both teams hit 100. Seeing a lot of complaining about Wisconsin’s seed, location and tip time. Poor babies having to travel all the way to Portland and play at 10:50 local time and only having 4 days off. Hope they can handle such adversity. 🙄

10. Final 4 is Duke, Arizona, Florida and Virginia. Duke beats Arizona for the title 

Things that won’t surprise me:

1. All 1-seeds make the Final 4

2. I’m completely wrong on the 12 + 13 prediction and that is blown up completely by the end of play Thursday.

3. Big 18 and SEC lays an egg. Big 18 has a problem and that problem is the awful officiating within the league. It is arguably one of the biggest disservices to them when it comes to March. The officiating in Chicago last week was abhorrent. The SEC doesn’t have any elite teams outside Florida.

4. On the other end, the Big XIIIIII has half the Elite 8.

5. All 14-seeds make the 3-seeds sweat in round one and 2 of the 15-seeds take 2-seeds to the wire but ultimately, no upsets.

See y’all soon.

Final Bracket

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Prairie View A&M
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. Idaho
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Kennesaw St.
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. UMBC
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Siena
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Tennessee St.
3. Illinois  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Penn
3. Purdue  vs  14. Troy
4. Nebraska  vs  13. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Virginia  vs  13. Hofstra
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Kansas  vs  12. High Point
5. Wisconsin  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Miami OH/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. VCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Villanova  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Georgia  vs  9. Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Dayton

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Also Considered - West Virginia

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Also Considered - Virginia Tech

Also Considered - California

Selection Sunday

 The day of Selection is upon us.  There are 5 games left in the regular season and it appears only 1 viable bid stealer is still hanging around.  I'm looking at you Dayton.  Texas and SMU will be watching on tightly as they are the two most likely to be cut.  Should be a fun day of basketball.  Final bracket soon.

Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Southern
1. Michigan  vs  16. Howard/LIU
1. Arizona  vs  16. UMBC
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Louisiana Tech
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Furman
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Siena
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Idaho
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Troy
3. Purdue  vs  14. North Dakota St.
4. Alabama  vs  13. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Virginia  vs  13. Yale
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Texas Tech  vs  12. McNeese St.
5. Tennessee  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Akron
6. Louisville  vs  11. SMU/Missouri
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. VCU/Texas
6. BYU  vs  11. South Florida
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Miami OH
7. Villanova  vs  10. Santa Clara
7. North Carolina  vs  10. N.C. State
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. UCLA  vs  10. Saint Louis
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. Ohio St.  vs  9. Georgia

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Oklahoma

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Stanford

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Cincinnati

Bids and More

 Lots of solid action yesterday as the conference tournaments wind down.  11 Bids go out today and there are a lot of 1 vs 2 seeds.  It should make for some great action later tonight.  The day starts out this morning with UMBC vs Vermont and ends with Cal Baptist vs Utah Valley.  It will be a great day to sit, relax, and watch some basketball.

Those who won't be relaxing are SMU, Texas, and Missouri.  I have all 3 team in right now but there are some bid stealers still alive.  The biggest one today is San Diego State, who is my first team out.  They play Utah State in the Mountain West Championship and a win there will push out a team.  Right now I'm leaning Texas but it's worth a second or third look.

Other bid stealers out there are from the A-10 and SEC. Mississippi is streaking and would need to beat Arkansas today and probably Florida tomorrow.  Not impossible but not likely either.  The A-10 has St. Joseph's vs VCU and Dayton vs Saint Louis.  Dayton or St. Joe's could take a spot up with 2 wins.

A new Bracket will come out later today but until then, enjoy the games

The Historically Weak Bubble

Brian knows better than me, but barring bid thievery in the A-10, AAC and Mountain West, the bubble looks like it has played itself out. Is this the weakest bubble yet?

We tend to hear that yearly, so I typically dismiss it to recency bias but I saw something last week that piqued my interest. An argument was made that the use of the portal hasn’t just hurt mid-majors but also has hurt power conference teams. The argument is, the talent has been accumulated more tightly on teams and the bubble teams are simply worse because the teams are worse. Makes sense when you say it out loud.

In 2016, the top ranked KenPom team was Villanova at +32.01.  25th was Vandy at +18.76, a difference of 13.25. This year, Duke is +39.26 and Iowa is +22.40, a difference of 16.86. Take it out further to 50 and it’s 17.86 vs. 23.59. The gap between the top teams and the chasers in the middle is widening. 

Now, this is cherry-picking on my part just doing a 10-year gap. It’s hardly conclusive but does underly the idea of a weaker bubble. It also illustrates how teams are adapting to the analytics era of the sport but that’s a different topic. Teams are playing more efficiently but the talent gap is widening from the top down.

There’s also an argument to be made about bloated conferences as well. Uneven conference schedules doesn’t help. Without true round robins, I believe the conferences are cannibalizing one another in some instances. The SEC is a good example this year. When you have one alpha, Florida, and the rest are good but not great, you get what you get this year. A lot of bubble teams eating one another instead of allowing for separation. When every game and multiple teams are bubble busters, sooner or later, you’re a dog chasing the bubble.

What’ll happen is, leagues and teams will understand what’s happening and begin to game the system. I’m not sure what that’ll look like but it’ll happen.