Conference Tournaments - March 11, 2026

MEAC

#1 Seed – Howard

Howard is 100 points higher than then next team according to KenPom.  I think they roll to a play in game.  The pick is Howard

Mountain West

#1 Seed -Utah State

Utah State is the 1 seed but they have been up and down lately.  I think the Mountain West is going to go bonkers and send a team not even in the discussion as the auto-bid.  It could be Colorado State or Nevada but I’m going with Boise State.

Big East

#1 Seed -St. John’s

The Big East is way down this year and Marquette was able to knock UConn of the top of the league with a great game on Saturday morning.  St. John’s has been playing better outside of the 30 point defeat to Connecticut.  Do they get their revenge?  No, the pick is UConn.

Big West

#1 Seed -UC-Irvine

The Big West is dragged down a little by the bottom 3 teams but that allowed for a solid mix of teams at the top.  The 1 seed is Irvine, outlasting Hawaii by 1 game.  The middle of the pack can do some damage this tournament and UC San Diego won 6 of their last 7.  Getting hot at the right time makes a difference.  The pick is UCSD.

WAC

#1 Seed -Utah Valley

Man, how the WAC has fallen.  Utah Valley is the 1 seed but Cal Baptist is right there.  Cal Baptist has been a team of streak, Win 7 to start the season, lost 3 in a row, won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row.  Followed that up with 9 wins, then 2 losses, then finished on a 4 game win streak.  I think that continues.  Cal Baptist is the pick

A-10

#1 Seed – Saint Louis

Saint Louis is just 3-3 in their last 6 while VCU has been surging.  George Mason just beat Saint Louis by 30 and George Washington has been solid all season.  Dayton, the preseason pick to win the conference finished 4^th behind St. Joseph’s.  I don’t think Saint Louis has enough to pull out a 3 game win streak.  St. Joseph’s 13-3 in their last 16, peaking at the right time.  St. Jospeh’s for the win and the A-10 is suddenly a 3 bid league.

SEC

#1 Seed -Florida

Florida is HOT.  They stay HOT.  The pick is Florida.

American

#1 Seed -South Florida

Tulsa finished 2^nd but lost to South Florida twice.  What’s the saying about beating a team 3 times in a season?  I don’t remember but Memphis is terrible. The pick is South Florida.

Tuesday Bubble Watch

Stanford - Currently my last team in but I'm not very confident in them.  They have Pitt early today and need this and tomorrow for sure.  Might even need a big upset on Thursday.

Cincinnati - Good resume numbers but overall not so hot.  2 win minimum and like Stanford, that may not be enough.

SMU - Some places have them out but I still think they are on e of the last 4 in.  No room for error and need to get a big win over Syracuse today.

Virginia Tech - Might need the auto-bid but the bubble is so bad we keep an eye on them.  A run to the ACC final would at least provide some Q1 wins.

Oklahoma State - I have them in my notes but I'm not sure they can get in without the bid.  

Tuesday Morning Notes

Congrats to Troy and Furman on Picking up Bids last night.  5 (4) bids go out tonight.

Coastal - #3 Hofstra vs #4 Monmouth - Kurly pegged Hofstra to start the tournament; I think he's right

Horizon - #1 Wright State vs #3 Detroit - Wright State finishes the job and into a 15 seed.

MAAC - #1 Merrimack vs #3 Siena - this is setting up nicely for Gerry McNamara ascend to the Syracuse job

WCC - #1 Gonzaga vs #3 Santa Clara - Santa Clara should be a lock now.  Gonzaga wins this on the way out the WCC door.

NEC - Long Island already gets the bid since Mercyhurst isn't eligible. 

Tournament Pot Party

AAC-

It’s a league. It’s actually worse in KenPom than the Valley. Woof. Anyway, they’re playing this in Birmingham. It’s a 1-bid league. USF won the regular season title and are 52 in KenPom. T-2 was Tulsa and Wichita State. Tulsa is 58 and the Shockers are 88 in KenPom.

South Florida is the pick. They lost 3 league games by a combined 5 points and 2 of them in overtime. They roll in on a 9-game win streak as well.

A-10

I think this is a 2-bid league. SLU and VCU are the 2-bids as they shared the regular season title. If that’s the case, this is a bid thief league.

It’s pretty well-balanced in the middle and one of them could certainly win this. In fact, I’ll pick Dayton to thieve a bid just to make it interesting on Sunday.

Big East

3-bid league. Could be a bid thief league, though. Pretty muddled from 4-11 and I’m not sure how you can have a lot of faith in the top-3.

I’ll pick UConn to win it but won’t be surprised if something dumb happens here.

Big West

Playing this in Henderson, NV. As always, this is a solid mid-major who can send a team to the dance and make someone sweat. UC-Irvine won the league and is 106 in KenPom.

UC-San Diego is 113, Hawaii is 115 and UC-Santa Barbara is 126 in KenPom. They all own wins over Irvine. Irvine has the 5th best effective fg% defense in the nation. Kyle Evans is a great shot blocker. UCSB is 21st in 3-point shooting nationally. I say it’s one of these 2 but I’ll take Irvine cuz I have to make a pick.

MEAC

Play-in league. Howard won the league and is 202 in KenPom. No one else is top-300. It’s Howard and head coach Kenny Blakeney who fits the March Duke motif.

Mountain West

Kind of a bittersweet week in Vegas for the Mountain West. The Frankenstein Pac-12 pilfers a chunk of this league beginning next year. It’ll be ok, but adding UTEP, Northern Illinois and North Dakota State doesn’t really move the needle. NDSU will be fine but doesn’t cover the losses.

Focusing on this season, Utah State won the regular season title and are 35th in KenPom. They should be a lock. San Diego State and New Mexico are bubbly and need a big week. I think both are out barring a deep run.

This is thievery territory. Utah State is the best team but not a lock. I’ll pick New Mexico to steal a bid here.

SEC

Auburn is somehow on the bubble and need a big week. Need Mississippi State to treat them like Kristi Noem treats dogs. Think that covers the bubble here.

The pick is Florida. Every other team is squarely meh.

WAC

7 lousy teams in this league!  Well, not lousy teams, but only 7 lousy teams! Utah Valley won the league and is 90th in KenPom. Cal Baptist finished 2nd and is 112th in KenPom.

Utah Valley is the pick because no one wants to be around baptists.

Conference Tournaments - March 10, 2026

Big 12

#1 Seed – Arizona

The Wildcats are the 1 seed but there are land minds all through the bracket.  There are 3-4 Final Four contenders here and any team that gets this auto-bid will have pumped up their resume.  It’s hard to see Arizona lose but I’m picturing Iowa State getting hot or Houston getting there.  The pick for now is the Cougars

ACC

#1 Seed – Duke

The injury bug has finally got to Duke and it’s more than likely they are without 2 starters for the Acc Tournament.  They have more than enough firepower to win but the question is do you really want to have the other players average 36 minutes a game.  Darren Harris is suddenly very important.  No other team really scares me, so the pick remains Duke.

Conference USA

#1 Seed – Liberty

Liberty takes the one seed but has looked subpar the past couple weeks, losing 3 of their last 5.  According to KenPom Sam Houston State is more likely to win this but 5 teams sit around 50 points lower.  Middle Tennessee State has won their last 5 and hit the tournament hot.  The Pick is Middle Tennessee State.

Big 18

#1 Seed – Michigan

I would of liked to see Michigan State win on Sunday just so more people pick them to go to the Final Four.  That team is garbage and Jeremy Fears is dirtier than Grayson Allen.  He’s kicked a guy in the nuts 3 or 4 times this season, if not just in the 2026 calendar year.  I think Wisconsin and Illinois can push Michigan, but I don’t see Michigan ending with a loss here.  The pick is Michigan

Monday Bracketology

1. Duke  vs  16. LeHigh/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Howard
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Florida  vs  16. Queens
2. Houston  vs  15. Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Connecticut  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Alabama  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Kansas  vs  13. Hofstra
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Northern Iowa
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. Yale
5. North Carolina  vs  12. High Point
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. VCU/Stanford
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. SMU/Santa Clara
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Texas
6. Tennessee  vs  11. N.C. State
7. Villanova  vs  10. Missouri
7. BYU  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. UCF
7. Georgia  vs  10. Ohio St.
8. Clemson  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa
8. Utah St.  vs  9. TCU
8. UCLA  vs  9. Saint Louis

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - Oklahoma

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - West Virginia

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Seton Hall

Quick Monday Thoughts

Two bids go out tonight and one Conference kicks off it's tournament.

Southern:

#6 Furman vs #1 ETSU - ETSU survived a scare this weekend but are ready to grab a 14 seed should they get the job done tonight

Sun Belt

#10 Georgia Southern vs #1 Troy - I bet this is going to be a good game and not a normal 1 vs 10.  I'm calling for the upset.

SWAC

#1 Seed - Bethune Cookman

BC is the top seed and even if they win all games by a million they are a 16 seed.  They at least have a top 20 NCSOS.  That might be enough to keep them out of the play-in games.  The Pick is Bethune Cookman.