Conference Preview #7 - Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10)

 

7. Atlantic 10 Conference (A-10)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Atlantic 10 enters the 2026–27 season ranked seventh nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +5.45, the A-10 continues to establish itself as one of the strongest conferences outside the traditional power leagues and enters the season with legitimate hopes of earning multiple NCAA Tournament bids.

VCU and Saint Louis lead the way in the initial OCMM bracket projection, giving the conference two projected NCAA Tournament teams. VCU earns a No. 10 seed, while Saint Louis checks in as a No. 12 seed. Both programs have the opportunity to build strong postseason résumés, although the competition throughout the conference should make the regular-season race interesting.

Dayton is another team to keep a close eye on, as the Flyers enter the season just outside the initial OCMM tournament field. With a strong tradition of competing near the top of the Atlantic 10, Dayton could challenge VCU and Saint Louis for conference supremacy and emerge as another legitimate at-large contender.

The biggest question for the Atlantic 10 is whether it can consistently produce multiple at-large contenders. The expanded 76-team NCAA Tournament creates additional opportunities for leagues like the A-10, but nonconference success will be critical. With several competitive programs capable of challenging the favorites, the conference has an opportunity to improve its national standing and potentially exceed its initial two-bid projection.

OCMM Outlook: The Atlantic 10 opens the season as the nation's seventh-ranked conference, with VCU and Saint Louis projected into the NCAA Tournament. Dayton is not far behind and could push the conference's total to three bids if the Flyers build a strong enough résumé throughout the season.

Conference Preview #8 - Mountain West Conference (MWC)

 

8. Mountain West Conference (MWC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The Mountain West enters the 2026–27 season ranked eighth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +4.58, the conference remains one of the stronger leagues outside the traditional power conferences, despite significant changes to its membership.

The departures of Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State, Fresno State, and Utah State to the Pac-12 have reshaped the Mountain West. New Mexico now finds itself in a position to lead the conference, with the Lobos earning a No. 12 seed and the automatic bid in the initial OCMM bracket projection.

The biggest question for the Mountain West is whether it can maintain its recent reputation as a multi-bid conference. Grand Canyon and UNLV are among the programs looking to challenge New Mexico, while Nevada provides additional competition. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the opportunity exists for a second Mountain West team to earn an at-large bid, but the conference will need strong nonconference performances to establish its postseason credentials.

OCMM Outlook: The Mountain West opens the season as the nation's eighth-ranked conference, with New Mexico projected to capture the automatic NCAA Tournament bid. Grand Canyon, UNLV, and Nevada will be worth watching as potential challengers, but the league currently projects as a one-bid conference until another team establishes a stronger at-large résumé.

Conference Preview #9 - American Athletic Conference (AAC)

 

9. American Athletic Conference (AAC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference Preview

The American Athletic Conference enters the 2026–27 season ranked ninth nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings. With an average adjusted efficiency margin of +2.75, the AAC remains one of the stronger leagues outside the traditional power conferences, although the conference faces questions about its ability to produce multiple NCAA Tournament bids.

Memphis has traditionally been one of the league's most recognizable programs, but the Tigers enter the season with something to prove. Wichita State leads the AAC in the initial OCMM bracket projection, earning a No. 13 seed and the conference's automatic bid. The Shockers will look to establish themselves at the top of a competitive conference race.

The biggest challenge for the American is developing a legitimate at-large contender. South Florida and Memphis appear to be the league's strongest candidates to challenge for an at-large bid, and both will need strong nonconference performances to build tournament-worthy résumés. With the NCAA Tournament expanding to 76 teams, the additional at-large opportunities could give the AAC a better chance of sending multiple teams to March Madness.

OCMM Outlook: The American opens the season as the nation's ninth-ranked conference, with Wichita State representing the league in the initial NCAA Tournament projection. While the AAC currently projects as a one-bid conference, South Florida and Memphis are the most likely candidates to push that total higher.

Conference Preview #10 - West Coast Conference

 

10. West Coast Conference (WCC)

2026–27 Preseason Conference 

The West Coast Conference enters a new era in 2026–27 following the departures of Gonzaga and Washington State to the Pac-12. Without perennial powerhouse Gonzaga, the WCC faces the challenge of establishing a new identity, but the league still has enough quality to rank 10th nationally in the preseason KenPom conference ratings.

Santa Clara leads the way, earning a No. 12 seed in the initial OC March Madness bracket projection. The Broncos have an opportunity to emerge as the conference's new standard-bearer, although the race for the regular-season championship figures to be more competitive without Gonzaga dominating the conversation.

The WCC enters the season with an average KenPom adjusted efficiency margin of +1.12, placing it just behind the American Athletic Conference. While Santa Clara is the only team projected into the NCAA Tournament in the initial OCMM bracket, the conference has the potential to produce additional postseason contenders.

OCMM Outlook: The WCC opens the season as the nation's 10th-ranked conference, with Santa Clara projected to capture its automatic NCAA Tournament bid. The biggest question is whether the league can develop another legitimate at-large contender in the post-Gonzaga era.

Opening Night - 5 Weeks Away

It seems like football just started but we are less than 5 weeks away from the 1st game of the College Basketball season.  The first game of the season is Sunday, November 1 as Villanova plays Notre Dame in Rome, Italy.  That is followed by a 24 hour marathon on November 2 starting with High Point vs Liberty at 12:01am.

The blog will be up and running for the 2026-2027 season.  Season Previews will be coming soon and my Bracketology file has already been updated to account for, sigh, 76 teams.

Meet the New Boss

Thoughts on the weekend include the vast difference of how the national champion won the title. A complete beatdown of one of the best teams in the nation in a game that was breathtaking for the ease at which Michigan dismantled whatever Arizona tried doing. Then, finding a way to win getting dragged into the mud by UConn, whose game plan was simple and effective. How Michigan won last night versus Saturday is so stark, that it’s a true testament to what a good basketball team they were.

Quick aside, Danny Hurley is a certifiable lunatic but great for the sport. What a brilliant coaching job getting this team to the title game and being in it to the end. As long as he’s at UConn, they’ll always be a threat.

I’ve seen some talk of this Michigan team being an all-timer. The numbers certainly support it but as I wrote a month back or so, roster construction has widened the gap between good and elite. I think comparing this team to Villanova of ‘18 or Kentucky of ‘12 or UNC of ‘09 isn’t fair. Different rules and simply put, a different era.

That gets to the crux of the state of the sport. The Big 18 and SEC are widening the gap between themselves and the rest of the conferences. I don’t think this is a one-off. Forget the TV money, the rich alum, especially in the Big 18 are going to have such an advantage on the rest of the sport, I’m not sure how the Big XIIIIII, ACC and Big East compete against the deeper pockets.

Now, each league will have teams with big budgets. Duke and Carolina will never be outbid for players. Nor will Kansas. Texas Tech has oil money pouring into the athletic department but I think the bigger picture is, most members of those leagues are facing uphill battles. 

Cincinnati and Xavier could compete against Ohio State in Ohio but the money cannon in Columbus dwarfs those schools. Iowa State is staring straight down a rejuvenated Iowa whose alum base and money is far greater. You get the point. It’s going to take a lot of pieces to fit for some of these schools to compete at that level. Coach, university alignment, alum willing to match what the money schools can and so on. 

Money has always been the dominant factor in college athletics. Duke has been bathing in Nike money for decades. It matters. It won’t happen because the SEC and Big 18 won’t let it, but collective bargaining is the answer. It’s a new era and that era is going to be dominated by the Evil Empire, the Big 18 and to a lesser extent, it’s apprentice, the SEC.

Final 4: Looking Back, Looking Forward

The Sins of the Father

The big takeaway from the Duke-UConn result hasn’t been about UConn’s tenacity or fight, but Jon Scheyer’s team blowing a big lead. In a HOT TAEK world, we have to give our hot take and this one is on a platter.

Scheyer lives in a shadow that he helped create. He’ll forever be hated simply for winning a title at Duke and having the audacity to be their head coach. So, in his failure, many find joy. It takes me back to when I wrote something similar when Kentucky didn’t complete their perfect season, we hate winners and we hate those that win too much. I get why people hated Coach K at the end and Scheyer gets that thrust on him before really “earning” the hate. Trust me, there was a time people liked Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

The book on Scheyer is just starting. His predecessor knows better than anyone the failure of March before the joy of victory. Roy Williams, Jim Calhoun, John Calipari, Nolan Richardson and so on, all knew the hot take world before the breakthrough. Unfortunately for Duke and Scheyer, until they/he does breakthrough, the questions about him as a coach will remain because we are fundamentally stupid when it comes to nuance and quite frankly, reality. Anyone that has watched Scheyer develop as a coach knows this, he can coach. But that doesn’t sell and isn’t an interesting perspective.

The Weekend That Was

Nobody was terribly surprised that Illinois wore down Iowa. Illinois benefited from great matchups in their region. More on this later, too. To their credit, they took advantage of the matchups and return to the Final 4 for the 1st time in two decades.

Arizona looked mortal for a half and then throttled Purdue. Purdue shot 50% from 3 in the 1st half and then 1 for 8 in the second half. The Wildcats defense stuffed Purdue into the garbage and Purdue’s defense got exposed. I’d mark this one down as an important loss in the Matt Painter era. Pre-season number 1 failed to make Indy and they lose a lot. Very curious to see where they head from here.

Brian texted me during the Michigan game after they jumped out big. I knew this would be a laugher and went golfing instead of watching. It’s a shame Joshua Jefferson got hurt. Credit to Tennessee for making another Elite 8 but they were just a speed bump for this Wolverine squad.

Final thought on Duke-UConn. I thought the turning point was the final 4 minutes of the first half. Duke went cold and while UConn only cut it to 15 from 19, it sure felt like ol’ Mo had switched sides. Not blaming injuries here, UConn is good and a worthy Final 4 team, but it would have been nice to see Caleb Foster at 100%.

The Final 4: Initial Blush

The crowds should be wild. It’s largely corporate nowadays but all 4 schools travel well. Good luck getting a reasonable ticket. And if the final is Michigan-Illinois, ticket prices will be the highest they’ve ever been on the secondary market.

Michigan-Arizona will be regarded as the de facto title game and very well might be. This is a great matchup. I wonder if Zona has enough offense to match Michigan. I wonder if Michigan can hold Arizona in check on the glass. Toss the ball up because it’s a pick ‘em.

Illinois-UConn hinges on whether UConn can do enough offensively against Illinois. I think this is a pretty good matchup for the Illini in that regard. Tarris Reed has probably been the best player in March and can absolutely match Illinois inside. He’ll have to be a bully. UConn beat them by 13 earlier in the year but the guards looked better back then. I think I lean Illinois but UConn is UConn. Another pick ‘em.