Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. North Carolina Central/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Illinois  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Austin Peay
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Santa Clara
6. Clemson  vs  11. New Mexico/Miami Fl
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Ohio St.
6. Alabama  vs  11. Saint Mary's
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. USC
7. N.C. State  vs  10. UCLA
8. UCF  vs  9. Georgia
8. Iowa  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Baylor

Also Considered - Akron

Also Considered - George Mason

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 2

 

Iowa State – Outside of a two-game slide where the Cyclones lost at Kansas and at Cincinnati Iowa State has been riding high.  Major metrics say this team is a threat to win the title and I agree.  Top 5 in the NET, Torvik, and KenPom say all that needs to be said from the computers.  As for the eye test; they pass that too.

Verdict: Contender

Houston – Year after year Houston remains in the title contender conversation.  Last year they made it to the championship game, perhaps this year is the year they win it all.  The Cougars only have 2 loses, at Texas Tech and on a neutral court versus Tennessee.  They are top 10 in all performance metrics although KenPom has them predicted to take 4 more losses this season.  I don’t see that happening and with their schedule, going 2-2 in that time frame is a win.  Kingston Fleming is the real deal.

Verdict:  Contender

BYU – BYU has lost 3 of their last 4 but still remain 15^th at KenPom and the NET.  Torvik has them at 27 and I have to lean with Torvik on this one.  Their defense doesn’t seem to track high enough to make a Final Four run and I actually don’t see them making the second weekend.  AJ Dybansta is going to be a stud in the NBA but a good 13 seed or 5 seed in the second round is going to drive them into fast stupid shots and the upset will hit.

Verdict:  Pretender

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Navy
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Kansas  vs  14. Troy
3. Vanderbilt  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Florida  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. BYU  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Arkansas  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/UCLA
6. Tennessee  vs  11. Indiana/Texas
6. Alabama  vs  11. Miami Fl
7. SMU  vs  10. Georgia
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. UCF  vs  10. New Mexico
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Iowa  vs  9. Saint Mary's
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. Utah St.
8. N.C. State  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Final Four Contender or Pretender Part 1

 

Arizona – Being the number one seed without question at this point in the season is dead give away that Arizona is going to be a Contender but let’s look at the numbers and be quick about this team.  Number 2 at KenPom with top 5 offense and defense is a great start.  Bart Torvik has them 2 as well.  They are undefeated with a NCAA leading 9 Quad 1 wins.

Verdict: Contender

Michigan – Two easy ones to start.  Arizona sits #2 at KenPom and Torvik while Michigan sits at #1.  They do have a loss to Wisconsin which counts as a Quad 2 at the moment but that’s the only blemish.  And, let’s be honest here, Wisconsin shot the lights out and probably Michigan probably wins that game 9 out of 10 times.  I still don’t trust Elliot Cadeau but that could be my Carolina bias shining through.  I had them in the Final with my pre-season picks and I see no reason to change that.

Verdict: Contender

Nebraska – Two losses in a row never looks good but they did play 2 top 10 teams in Michigan and Illinois.  The metrics for the Cornhuskers are solid with most numbers falling in the top 20.  The lone exception is KP Offense which ranks 26^th.  On top of that they don’t get to the free throw line very often, which was evident in the last two losses where they shot a total of 9 free throws.  This is a good story for the mayor but a Final Four run may be asking a bit too much.

Verdict: Pretender

UCF

Earlier today, UCF hosted and beat Texas Tech, 88-82 to move to 17-4 overall, and 6-3 in the Big XIIIIII. Let’s learn about Johnny Dawkins hoopers.

Only 45 in KenPom, UCF is probably not a threat to make much noise in March but given Dawkins was on the hot seat entering the year, a tourney bid would be a great result. They’re 31st in AdjustedO but 79th in AdjustedD. The D is 228th in effective fg%. Woof. Other than defensive rebounding, this is a mediocre defense.

Offensively, they’re 20th in the nation shooting from 3 and a very good offensive rebounding team. Jordan Burks shoots 39% from 3 and Riley Kugel shoots 40% from 3. Carmelo Pachero is a low usage player who shoots 40% from 3. Winning more will revolve around them making 3’s. Bad shooting nights will doom them but they haven’t had many yet.

The schedule is manageable the remainder of the year. Trips to Houston and BYU remain. A win in one of these would go a long way to shoring up a bid. They do have games across the board against some bubbly teams, so a bid isn’t locked in.

Looking at their wins out of league, a win over Texas A&M is their best win. The schedule wasn’t daunting but the wins they have were against better than average mid-majors. Only 2-wins out of league were against sub-200 KenPom teams. It shouldn’t wow you but these were games you might have seen UCF lose in other seasons.

Brian has them as a 7-seed and that’s about right. They can get into that 4-6 range with a strong finish but feels more likely they stay in the 7-10 range.  I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if they end up on the bubble either but that doesn’t feel likely as the moment.  They’d prefer a 7 or 10 and I could see them shooting a 2-seed out of the gym in an upset. That’s the best case scenario but a scenario they’d have taken as the season begun.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Maryland Eastern Shore/Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. Vermont/Merrimack
1. Connecticut  vs  16. LIU
1. Duke  vs  16. Tennessee Martin
2. Gonzaga  vs  15. Navy
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Austin Peay
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Wright St.
3. Houston  vs  14. UT Arlington
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. UC Irvine
4. Vanderbilt  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. BYU  vs  13. Troy
4. Purdue  vs  13. Liberty
4. Purdue  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Arkansas  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. St. John's  vs  12. Tulsa
5. Louisville  vs  12. Yale
6. Virginia  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. Clemson  vs  11. Seton Hall/New Mexico
6. Alabama  vs  11. Virginia Tech/Ohio St.
6. Tennessee  vs  11. UCLA
7. SMU  vs  10. Georgia
7. Villanova  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. USC
7. UCF  vs  10. Miami Fl
8. Kentucky  vs  9. Wisconsin
8. Iowa  vs  9. N.C. State
8. Saint Mary's  vs  9. Texas A&M
8. Auburn  vs  9. Utah St.

First Four Out - Indiana

First Four Out - Santa Clara

First Four Out - Texas

First Four Out - Creighton

Next Four Out - TCU

Next Four Out - Missouri

Next Four Out - George Mason

Next Four Out - California

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Butler

Bubble Out = Continue to be Bubble Out

 

It wasn’t the best week for bubble teams outside the bracket.  In fact, I didn’t move one team in that was out from Tuesday’s bracket due to the carnage.  Let’s take a look at the 12 teams that are out and being tracked:

First Four Out:

Texas – lost

Indiana – Big win vs Purdue; the only team with a resume building win out here

Santa Clara – Won

TCU – loss

Creighton – destroyed at Marquette

Next Four Out

Missouri – Bad loss

George Mason – won, but they really aren’t close to getting in

California – loss

Also Considered

LSU – loss

Baylor – loss and replaced by VCU

Stanford – loss

Butler – loss

In summary, that’s 3-9 with only 1 good win across the past 3 days.  New Bracket will be out soon