SMU vs Louisville – SMU is an 11 seed and sitting right on the bye/play in game cut line. A win and I think they are safe. A loss and they have to sweat it out.
Cincinnati vs UCF – UCF is probably ok but it’s best not to
tempt fate. Cincinnati needs this one and more
Mississippi State vs Auburn – Auburn…still the first team
out. I hope they get blown out.
Pittsburgh vs NC State – NC State is closer to the bubble
than most think and a loss here hurts their resume. Win and they should
be good.
MAC
#1 Seed -Miami OH
Miami runs the regular season and I don’t care if you are a SWAC team, if you go through the regular season without losing you deserve a bid. Selfishly I want Akron to win the bid so we can have two capable MAC teams in the tournament. Wouldn’t it be funny for both to make it and then Akron go to the Sweet Sixteen? The pick is Akron
Ivy
#1 Seed -Yale
Just going to get this one out of the way. Yale is a 12 seed and capable of an upset
next week. The pick is Yale.
Tournament Bids:
Congrats to Hofstra, Wright State, LIU, Siena, and Gonzaga on punching their tickets to the Big Dance. Three more bids go out today.
Southland - #1 SFA vs #2 McNeese St - both teams will give a 5 seed trouble. I'm just hoping for a good game and an upset next week
Patriot - #2 Lehigh vs #4 Boston - time for a Lehigh Victory Platter. Welcome to the play in game
Big Sky - #4 Montana vs #7 Idaho - I think we both predicted this conference tournament would be a mess. Montana is a little better than Idaho but not by much
Bubble Winners:
SMU, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State. SMU might be a lock now but it's still close. Cincinnati and Oklahoma State are still a couple wins from getting into the bracket.
Bubble Losers:
Stanford, Virginia Tech, and Santa Clara - The Broncos should be good but I've seen the committee make a lot of dumb decisions. Put a fork in Stanford and Virginia Tech because they are done.
MEAC
#1 Seed – Howard
Howard is 100 points higher than then next team according to
KenPom. I think they roll to a play in
game. The pick is Howard
Mountain West
#1 Seed -Utah State
Utah State is the 1 seed but they have been up and down
lately. I think the Mountain West is
going to go bonkers and send a team not even in the discussion as the
auto-bid. It could be Colorado State or
Nevada but I’m going with Boise State.
Big East
#1 Seed -St. John’s
The Big East is way down this year and Marquette was able to
knock UConn of the top of the league with a great game on Saturday morning. St. John’s has been playing better outside of
the 30 point defeat to Connecticut. Do
they get their revenge? No, the pick is
UConn.
Big West
#1 Seed -UC-Irvine
The Big West is dragged down a little by the bottom 3 teams
but that allowed for a solid mix of teams at the top. The 1 seed is Irvine, outlasting Hawaii by 1
game. The middle of the pack can do some
damage this tournament and UC San Diego won 6 of their last 7. Getting hot at the right time makes a difference. The pick is UCSD.
WAC
#1 Seed -Utah Valley
Man, how the WAC has fallen.
Utah Valley is the 1 seed but Cal Baptist is right there. Cal Baptist has been a team of streak, Win 7
to start the season, lost 3 in a row, won 3 in a row, lost 3 in a row. Followed that up with 9 wins, then 2 losses, then
finished on a 4 game win streak. I think
that continues. Cal Baptist is the pick
A-10
#1 Seed – Saint Louis
Saint Louis is just 3-3 in their last 6 while VCU has been
surging. George Mason just beat Saint
Louis by 30 and George Washington has been solid all season. Dayton, the preseason pick to win the
conference finished 4th behind St. Joseph’s. I don’t think Saint Louis has enough to pull
out a 3 game win streak. St. Joseph’s
13-3 in their last 16, peaking at the right time. St. Jospeh’s for the win and the A-10 is
suddenly a 3 bid league.
SEC
#1 Seed -Florida
Florida is HOT. They
stay HOT. The pick is Florida.
American
#1 Seed -South Florida
Tulsa finished 2nd but lost to South Florida
twice. What’s the saying about beating a
team 3 times in a season? I don’t
remember but Memphis is terrible. The pick is South Florida.
Stanford - Currently my last team in but I'm not very confident in them. They have Pitt early today and need this and tomorrow for sure. Might even need a big upset on Thursday.
Cincinnati - Good resume numbers but overall not so hot. 2 win minimum and like Stanford, that may not be enough.
SMU - Some places have them out but I still think they are on e of the last 4 in. No room for error and need to get a big win over Syracuse today.
Virginia Tech - Might need the auto-bid but the bubble is so bad we keep an eye on them. A run to the ACC final would at least provide some Q1 wins.
Oklahoma State - I have them in my notes but I'm not sure they can get in without the bid.
Congrats to Troy and Furman on Picking up Bids last night. 5 (4) bids go out tonight.
Coastal - #3 Hofstra vs #4 Monmouth - Kurly pegged Hofstra to start the tournament; I think he's right
Horizon - #1 Wright State vs #3 Detroit - Wright State finishes the job and into a 15 seed.
MAAC - #1 Merrimack vs #3 Siena - this is setting up nicely for Gerry McNamara ascend to the Syracuse job
WCC - #1 Gonzaga vs #3 Santa Clara - Santa Clara should be a lock now. Gonzaga wins this on the way out the WCC door.
NEC - Long Island already gets the bid since Mercyhurst isn't eligible.
