One Month to Go!

 We are one month to Selection Sunday so now is a good time to predict the Final Four again.  Going back my preseason Final Four were Michigan, Houston, Duke, and Texas Tech.  That’s not bad and I would have stuck with the first three for sure but after Texas Tech knocked off Arizona last night it might make sense to keep them in as well.  However, I’m not going to let one game sway me back to my original Four yet. 

Thinking through the season so far, I think there is a large range of teams that can make the Final Four and after last season, where all #1’s made it, I think there will be a surprise or two.  As I mentioned I have Duke, Michigan, and Houston as 3 of my 4 and those are 2 1seeds and 1 2 seed.  I currently have Texas Tech as a 4 seed, but I can see them replacing Michigan State at the 3 line in the next bracket.  That would be a minor upset as a 3 seed but, I’m not going there now.  St. John’s has been hot lately and Florida is everybody’s darling at the moment.  I can make a case for the Gators but once again that’s an easy way out.  Instead, I’m going to go out on a limb and lean on my ACC bias and select Virginia as my 4^th Final Four team.  I like what I see out of them and it’s great to see actual basketball being played at Virigina instead of the garbage that the previous coach tried to shove down our throats.  This might be a reach, but I don’t want to be like everybody else and take the same 4 out of 5 teams as my prediction (most people sprinkle in Florida or Connecticut.

Final Four 1 Month Out:

Duke
Michigan
Houston
Virginia

Sparty

Izzo is March is one of our favorite phrases, isn’t it? Brian pointed out Matt Norlander called Michigan State the 2nd most likely team to win a national title out of the Big 18. They proceeded to blown off the court by UW-Madison. Are they the 2nd most likely team to win a national title do the Big 18? No, no they’re not.

They’ve now lost 3 of 4, which includes a double digit loss at home to Michigan and a loss at Minnesota to go with the blowout loss in Madison. Izzo better be March because he isn’t February at the moment.

They got as high as number 4 in KenPom following a blowout win over a terrible Maryland team on January 24th. They also briefly had the best defense in the land. Since then, they’ve given up 79 to Rutgers in a 73-possession game, 76 to the Gophers in 53-possession game, 83 to Michigan in a 73-possession game, 82 to Illinois in a 71 possession game and them 92 in a 68 possession game. The defense has flatlined since that blowout win over Maryland.

The offense has never been good enough to win a title, hovering in the 40’s most of Big 18 play. The offense isn’t terrible other than turning it over way too much. A great rebounding team, the offense thrives off 2nd chance possessions.

Jeremy Fears is this year’s dirtbag Big 18 player. Fears is a good PG, they type of a player the media likes because of gaudy assist stats. A terrible shooter who hunts fouls which works for him because he 90% from the line but only 25% from 3. Expect to hear a lot of announcers to push the redemption narrative like Jason Benetti did last Saturday night.

The schedule includes road trips to Indiana, Michigan and Purdue. A 3-3 finish is possible which would mean a 4-6 finish in regular season play. Don’t know that’ll happen but this isn’t a team that is the second most likely to end the Big 18 title drought.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Kansas  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Nebraska  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. Portland St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Purdue  vs  13. Hawaii
4. St. John's  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. North Carolina  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. South Florida
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. San Diego St./Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Saint Louis  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Clemson  vs  10. Georgia
7. N.C. State  vs  10. Texas A&M
8. Utah St.  vs  9. UCLA
8. Iowa  vs  9. UCF
8. Wisconsin  vs  9. SMU
8. Auburn  vs  9. Indiana

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

First Four Out - TCU

First Four Out - California

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - Tulsa

Utah State

It’s Aggie time. Utah State currently has a 1/2 game lead in the last year of the Mountain West as we know it. They’re up to 25th in KenPom, 27th on offense and 39th on defense. Jerrod Calhoun is the coach and given his background, a guy who Cincinnati and Ohio State might give a looksy should they make a move this off-season.

With 57.8% real shooting, 13th in the nation, the offense is quite good. They’re 8th in 2-pt shooting % and 80th in 3-pt shooting. The highest volume 3-point shooters are all 37% or better, so while 80th overall isn’t great, the core shooters are good. You’d like to see better turnover numbers but they do assist on 59% of makes. Their big folly on offense is weak FT shooting. They get to the line at an ok number but they’re 239th in FT % shooting.

Defensively, they’re 18th in turnover % and 59th in real shooting % defense. That mix is pretty good. Their weakness is they foul too much. They’re 269th in FTA/FGA. They’re also mediocre on the glass. Would be nice to see those 2 areas cleaned up.

MJ Collins paces them with 18ppg. Mason Falslev averages 16ppg and 5.7 boards per game while shooting 39.5% from 3 and getting 2.2 steals per game. Drake Allen and Elijah Perryman run the point and are quite adept at it. Allen averages 5 assists per game along with 2 steals per game. If you like guard play, this team has it.

The non-con wasn’t great with their best win over VCU and a loss to USF. It’s not a bad non-con schedule, they’re just not going to get anyone from the Big 5 to play them, so they scheduled a good amount of solid mid-majors. They play Memphis this Saturday. That’s a good scheduled game you’d think but the Tigers aren’t holding up their end of the donkey.

Brian has them on the 8-9 line and it doesn’t seem likely they get much higher without running the table. There’s enough parity in the league that’s unlikely but they’re worth monitoring should they get up to the 6 or 7 line.

Final Four Contender OR Pretender Part 3

 

Connecticut – Uconn just took a loss to St. John’s last Friday night so now seems like a good time to talk about them.  Their offense efficiency according to KenPom is below what you would like from a title contender, sitting at 27 but overall they are 8^th.  Torvik and the NET also have them slotted at 8 and both losses are against Quad 1 opponents.  The early season loss to Arizona was without 2 starters and again, it was against Arizona.  I’m still high on the Huskies even in a barren Big East.

Verdict: Contender...for now

Kansas – How can you actually make a prediction about Kansas with Darryn Peterson in and out of the lineup?  Hard to make a guess when you don’t know who is going to be on the court and who’s not.  What I do know is Peterson, while the best player in college, is 100% managing his playing time in an effort to get to the NBA healthy and get that rookie contract.  Do you know what players who do that in college do when they get a rookie contract?  They manage their playing time until they get an extension.  And when they get an extension it’s the same behavior until they get a max-contract.  And by then they have a label of a player not interested in winning.  I also question whether he loves the game.  Super talent and the NBA will love him but he will frustrate every franchise he plays for.

Verdict: They should allow players to go directly to the NBA.  And Kansas is a pretender but I’m impressed with how they’ve played with this circus.

Michigan State – Tom Izzo this, Tom Izzo that.  I keep hearing the podcasts talk about how he does so much with less talent than every other team year in and year out.  If he’s so good how come he constantly has “less talent” than other blue bloods?  He’s got 1 Final Four in 10 years and Jeremy Fears is AS dirty as Grayson Allen

Verdict:  Pretender and not making the 2^nd weekend

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Arizona  vs  16. Morgan St./Bethune Cookman
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Merrimack
1. Duke  vs  16. LIU
1. Houston  vs  16. Navy
2. Connecticut  vs  15. Tennessee Martin
2. Iowa St.  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Portland St.
2. Illinois  vs  15. Austin Peay
3. Kansas  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Michigan St.  vs  14. Troy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. East Tennessee St.
3. Florida  vs  14. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Hawaii
4. Purdue  vs  13. Utah Valley
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Liberty
4. Virginia  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. High Point
5. St. John's  vs  12. Belmont
5. BYU  vs  12. Yale
5. Louisville  vs  12. Tulsa
6. Arkansas  vs  11. Missouri
6. Tennessee  vs  11. California/Saint Mary's
6. Alabama  vs  11. USC/Miami Fl
6. Clemson  vs  11. Santa Clara
7. Villanova  vs  10. Texas
7. Saint Louis  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Kentucky  vs  10. Wisconsin
7. Iowa  vs  10. Indiana
8. N.C. State  vs  9. UCLA
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Georgia
8. Texas A&M  vs  9. UCF
8. SMU  vs  9. Auburn

First Four Out - Ohio St.

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - Oklahoma St.

First Four Out - New Mexico

Next Four Out - Boise St.

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - TCU

Also Considered - LSU

Also Considered - VCU

Also Considered - Nevada

Also Considered - George Mason

The Contenders

Asked last night who my Final 4 was and I was slow to respond. Probably because I always want to think of some unlikely Final 4 team. Yes, that could happen but let’s take a look at the real title contenders. One of these teams is likely to win it all. All are Top-20 offense and defenses.

Arizona - At a loss of superlatives at the moment. Largely steamrolling opponents. Just don’t do anything poorly. Barring injury, anything short of a regional final will be a massive disappointment.

Michigan - Currently up double-digits with 7 minutes left in Columbus. Well-balanced team that has responded to its hiccups after the calendar turned to 2026. Will be battle tested.

Duke - Heartbreaker last night. Lack of another offensive option was exposed last night late. Bit discouraging to see that UNC defense do that to them. Final 4 good but don’t see a title.

Houston - Offense, shooting in particular worries me but it has been gradually improving through Big XIIIII play. Still plays good defense. If the shooting continues to improve, they’ll be a legit title threat. If it stalls or regresses, that’ll be their doom.

Iowa State - Great response after some rough play. They can win it all. FT shooting is bad. Don’t get to the line and when they do, they’re not good but with the 7th best real shooting %, will it matter?

Florida - Don’t look now, but the defending champs are squarely in the mix. Can’t shoot the 3, though. Probably limits them from defending. Let’s see how that looks as we get into March.

Vandy - Fading? The defense is up and down. Not a threat but like I said a few weeks back, they’re building something in Nashville.

Iowa - Huh. Top 20 d and o. The defense is built upon turning teams over. 116th real shooting % defense isn’t good enough. It’s built upon teams missing 3’s, so not probably even that good. Still, seeing them here is something. Sweet 16 feels like the ceiling but given the Fran years, what an accomplishment that would be.

Others: 

Illinois - Last night’s loss exposed the question about them, the defense. It’s 22nd in KenPom, so that’s good but given up 85 points, even in overtime, to Michigan State isn’t a good look. A Final 4 run won’t surprise me but someone will out score them.

UConn - 306th in tempo, 27th in offense. Great defense can carry them. Problem on offense is free throw numbers across the board. Bit sloppy with the ball, too. Fascinating team to watch in March. Could do just about anything. Get upset early, make a run to the Final 4.

Purdue - Elite offense, good defense. Not a title contender but a Final 4 is doable. Head to Nebraska and Iowa and host Michigan in the next 3 games. Let’s see how the defense performs in those games

St. John’s - On a 9-game winning streak. Hovering around the top-20 in both offense and defense. So-so shooting team. Get a lot of second chance opportunities and to the line. Bullies on the offensive glass, terrible on the defensive glass. Sweet 16 ceiling, imo.

Virginia - Probably not. Sweet 16 is the ceiling. Again, that would be a great season given expectations.

Monitoring: Kentucky and UNC