SOUTHLAND SWACS

Southland-

From Lake Charles, the Southland begins their conference tournament on Sunday. And I begin my golf season, so me and The Southland are best friends in March.

Stephen F. Austin won the regular season title, going 20-2. They get a bye to the semifinals like 2nd place finisher, McNeese State. McNeese is 67 in KenPom and SFA is 86. They split in the regular season with each game being close. McNeese has won 8 straight games.

Those two are prohibitive favorites. UT-Rio Grande Valley finished 3rd and are 125th in KenPom. Chorpus-Christi, my niece’s school finished 4th and are 179th in KenPom. The campus is on an island and she gets to go fishing daily. I’m jealous.

The pick is McNeese.

SWAC-

Play-in tournament for the play-in. The SWAC hosts their tournament in Atlanta. The league was actually much better this year than most. The league plays second fastest of any league in the country.

Bethune-Cookman won the league behind Reggie Theus. They set the tone early by taking Auburn to overtime to start the year to expose nepo baby Steven Pearl. They’re the only team with a winning record outside Alabama A&M but are 60 spots better in KenPom and swept them in the regular season. They’re the pick.

First Bid and More

The Ohio Valley Conference Championship is tonight with #1 Tennessee State playing #2 Morehead State.

The first bid is upon us.

Four more bids will go out tomorrow, the Big South, Missouri Valley, A-Sun, and Summit.

As for the rest of the action, the biggest loser was Belmont, who lost to 9 seeded Drake.  A good season ruined by 40 bad minutes of basketball.  They don't have any high profile wins but their metrics aren't that far off from most of the bubble teams.  They can't get in and that's a bummer.  Bradley slides in as the current representative for the Missouri Valley.

Seton Hall lost which all but eliminates them from the Bubble Watch.  West Virginia and San Diego State hang on and suddenly we need to look into UCF further to see how bad the metrics are after a couple of losses.

Last, Miami OH finished undefeated in the regular season and I think they are a lock no matter what they do in the conference tournament.

Bubble Watch

VCU at Dayton - VCU has one of my last bids and needs to keep winning

San Diego State vs UNLV - The Aztecs are one of the First Four out.  A win and a VCU loss would be nice for them.

St. John's at Seton Hall - Seton Hall needs some big wins and just one won't do.  This is 100% necessary

UCF at West Virginia - UCF is still OK but a win leaves them as a lock.  West Virginia is technically still alive.

Miami OH at Ohio - I don't think Miami OH is on the bubble but win this and there's no question.

Friday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Howard
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Central Arkansas
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Florida  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Illinois  vs  15. Portland St.
3. Nebraska  vs  14. Troy
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Navy
3. Gonzaga  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Alabama  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Texas Tech  vs  13. Liberty
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. High Point
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. Santa Clara/New Mexico
6. Louisville  vs  11. Ohio St./VCU
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Texas
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Texas A&M
7. Villanova  vs  10. SMU
7. BYU  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. TCU
7. Miami Fl  vs  10. N.C. State
8. Clemson  vs  9. Missouri
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. UCLA
8. Georgia  vs  9. UCF
8. Utah St.  vs  9. Iowa

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - San Diego St.

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - Tulsa

Also Considered - West Virginia

Conference Tournaments - March 7, 2026 and March 8, 20026

 America East

#1 Seed – UMBC

The team that brought me so much joy years ago.  The game where they beat Virginia is one of those games that I wish I could go back and watch from start to finish without knowing the outcome.  Only UMBC and Vermont are above 300 in KenPom.  This is a play-in game no matter who wins.  Let’s pick NJIT.

Big Sky

#1 Seed – Portland State

On the flip side of the KenPom numbers the Big Sky has 7 teams above 200.  That’s remarkable in comparison to the America East.  Portland State won the conference by 1 game but 5 more teams are only 2 games behind that.  This tournament is wide open, and I would guess Montana State, while 2^nd, is probably the favorite.  Let’s get crazy here, the pick is 4 seeded Northern Colorado.

Southland

#1 Seed – Stephen F. Austin

This was supposed to be McNeese State but Will Wade left and took his dirty grimy hands to North Carolina State where he will fail year after year until he’s fired since he’s only a good coach when he can cheat.  Well, that’s enough on that tangent.  SFA won the conference but I’m willing to say McNeese is the favorite.  Each has 1 game and then they will meet in the Finals.  The pick in McNeese St.

AMEAST BIG SKY

America East-

The America East tips Saturday. All games are on campus. UMBC won the league at 14-2 and is 200 in KenPom after starting the year at 296.

Perennial bracket buster favorite, Vermont, finished 2nd at 12-4 in league. They own 1 of 2 wins over Vermont and are 238 in KenPom. All other teams are sub-300. UMBC is the pick. 

Big Sky-

Live from Boise, the Big Sky also tips Saturday. This league is much more fun than the AmEast. They actually have 4 teams with positive net ratings. Portland State won the league at 13-5 but is 3rd best in KenPom in the league and has lost 3 of 4.

Montana State finished 2nd and is 131st in KenPom. They own a win over St. Thomas and took Utah State to overtime. But, they also lost to a bad Oral Bob team.

Northern Colorado is in a logjam tying for 4th but has the second best KenPom number at 138. Northern Colorado beat regular Colorado in non-con.

Montana State is the most well-balanced of the 3 and are my pick. Do be mindful of Eastern Washington who have won 8 of 9 after starting the year at 5-17. Want to take a flyer on a losing team to make the dance, this might be your squad.

Conference Tournaments - March 6, 2026

Southern

#1 Seed – East Tennessee State

ETSU are the clear number 1 team here but the next 5 teams are either 11-7 or 10-8 in the conference.  ETSU can get a 15 seed but anybody else is probably a non-play in game 16 seed.  Wofford, Mercer, and Furman have also all had a bit of success in the tournament so the winner is live to at least put up a fight.  My pick is still ETSU.

Coastal

#1 Seed – UNC-Wilmington

The Seahwaks are the top seed but this is a fairly open tournament.  Kurly has the Pride winning it all and I cn see that happening.  The top 5 all have a chance and depending on who gets it will determine if they are a 13 or 14 seed.  I’d love to pick William and Mary but ultimately I think Charleston get it done.  The pick is Charleston