Tuesday Bubble Action

Bubble In:

TCU at Texas Tech

TCU is in my last bye spot and a loss won't drop them out.  A win and they might be a lock.

Kentucky at Texas A&M

A&M has fallen all the way to the play-in games.  Best not to lose tonight.  I wonder which Kentucky team shows up?  I guess it will be bad Kentucky and A&M wins by 17

San Diego St at Boise St

This is 95% about San Diego St but a little about Boise State as well.  The Aztecs are my last team in and cannot afford a loss. Boise State remains in the Also Considered Garbage Bucket.

Bubble Out:

George Mason at VCU

VCU suddenly has a real shot but they cannot afford to lose until probably the A-10 championship game.  This won't be easy tonight but a loss ends their hopes.

Seton Hall at Xavier

The Hall missed a golden opportunity against Connecticut and now have little room for error.  Their 2 Q1 wins leave them in the discussion for now.

West Virginia at Kansas State

The Mountaineers have the best Q1 record of teams currently out of the bracket at 5-7 but they have a Q3 loss.  Their Q2 record of 1-4 isn't great either.  They have a lot to overcome including K-State.

LSU-Auburn

Auburn does not deserve a bid but they still have higher metrics than everybody else in my last Four In.  Bruce Pearl actively lobbying for them makes me hope they lose more.  Dirty, cheating coach.

Tuesday Bracketology

 1. Duke  vs  16. Bethune Cookman/Howard
1. Michigan  vs  16. UMBC/Tennessee St.
1. Arizona  vs  16. LIU
1. Connecticut  vs  16. Portland St.
2. Houston  vs  15. Wright St.
2. Florida  vs  15. East Tennessee St.
2. Nebraska  vs  15. Merrimack
2. Michigan St.  vs  15. Central Arkansas
3. Illinois  vs  14. Troy
3. Iowa St.  vs  14. Navy
3. Texas Tech  vs  14. North Dakota St.
3. Purdue  vs  14. Hawaii
4. Alabama  vs  13. Cal Baptist
4. Kansas  vs  13. UNC Wilmington
4. Gonzaga  vs  13. High Point
4. North Carolina  vs  13. Stephen F. Austin
5. Virginia  vs  12. Liberty
5. Arkansas  vs  12. Yale
5. Tennessee  vs  12. Belmont
5. Vanderbilt  vs  12. South Florida
6. St. John's  vs  11. San Diego St.
6. BYU  vs  11. New Mexico/Texas A&M
6. Wisconsin  vs  11. Santa Clara/TCU
6. Kentucky  vs  11. Ohio St.
7. Villanova  vs  10. UCLA
7. Louisville  vs  10. Miami OH
7. Saint Mary's  vs  10. Texas
7. Utah St.  vs  10. N.C. State
8. Clemson  vs  9. Missouri
8. Saint Louis  vs  9. SMU
8. Georgia  vs  9. UCF
8. Miami Fl  vs  9. Iowa

First Four Out - Auburn

First Four Out - Virginia Tech

First Four Out - California

First Four Out - VCU

Next Four Out - Indiana

Next Four Out - Seton Hall

Next Four Out - USC

Next Four Out - Oklahoma St.

Also Considered - Cincinnati

Also Considered - Boise St.

Also Considered - Stanford

Also Considered - West Virginia

Conference Tournaments - March 4, 2026

 Ohio Valley

#1 Seed – Tennessee State

We have another nice bracket with the top 2 seeds getting bye’s to the semi-finals.  UT-Martin led this conference for most of the season but fell off.  I loved when Morehead beat Louisville some time ago.   For that reason alone, my pick is Morehead.

Big South

#1 Seed – High Point

High Point has been humming along nicely all year long and finish at 27-4.  This is a 13 seed, perhaps 12 when all is said and done.  They can win a game from either seed.  I’m betting they at least get a chance.  Pick – High Point

Atlantic Sun

#1 Seed – Central Arkansas

Central Arkansas is famous for Scottie Pippen.  I hate the Bulls so they are out. Austin Peay tied up top with a 15-3 record but fall to the 2 seed.  This bracket has upset written all over it.  According to Google, Lipscomb’s most famous alumni is Kelsea Ballerini.  Good enough for me.  Th ePick - Lipscomb

Summit

#1 Seed – North Dakota State

This one is going to be short and sweet; Noth Dakota St is the 1 seed but St. Thomas split with them during the season.  I’m guessing they meet in the championship for the chance to be a 14 seed.  St. Thomas is the pick.

Northeast

#1 Seed – LIU

I just learned this year that LIU is no longer the Blackbirds after merging two campuses.  Now they are the Long Island Sharks.  They took the Blackbirds, merged with Pioneers and came up with Sharks…that’s not better.  I have to pick Central Connecticut State since they have the best mascot.  CCSU Blue Devils are the pick.

Conference Tournaments - March 3, 2026

 Horizon League:

#1 Seed – Wright State

This is 16 seed fodder and Wright State isn’t much better than the rest of the top half of the conference.  This is a dart throw at best but I’m going with UW-Green Bay to get hot and dance with Doug Gottlieb for the first time

Conference Tournaments - March 3, 2026

Patriot League:

#1 Seed – Navy

Navy is a 14 seed and should be able to finish this group out. #1 Navy is the pick

Sun Belt:

#1 Seed – Troy

The Sun Belt knows how to set up the top seeds with Troy and Marshall receiving 5 byes.  Those two only need to win 2 game to get the bid.  Seriously, check out this bracket!  As easy as it is for Troy to win 2 and be in I’m going to go with a team to get hot and rip off a couple wins in a row.  Sometimes it’s hard to sit and wait to play.  #6 South Alabama is the pick.

ASun, Big South, NEC, OVC, Summit

ASun-

Live from Jacksonville, it’s the ASun. The ASun has two teams with a positive AdjustedEM, Central Arkansas and Austin Peay. Only 4 teams had a winning record in league play. It’s grim.

The regular season champ was Central Arkansas, 154th in KenPom. Austin Peay finished 2nd and is 165. Queens and Lipscomb, the other two teams with winning records in league are also the only other top 200 KenPom teams.

Central Arkansas has won 13 of 14 and is the pick.

Big South-

The Big South is played in Johnson City, TN at Freedom Hall. Sounds patriotic. High Point won the league at 15-1 and went 27-4 overall. They’re 91st in KenPom. Bracket buster alert. They’ve won 11 in a row. They’re the 4th best turnover % on both sides of the ball nationally. Note that should they draw a turnover prone team in a few weeks.

Of course, they have to win the conference tourney. Their only loss was to Winthrop who finished 2nd and is the only other top-200 KenPom team. 

High Point is the pick.

NEC-

The NEC tips Wednesday as well. Per usual, this is 16-seed territory. No team is top-200 in KenPom. Rod Strickland’s LIU won the regular season title and are the faves. Central Connecticut finished 2nd but were swept by LIU.

Mercyhurst and Le Moyne finished T-3 and split with LIU. I’ll stick with LIU. 

Ohio Valley-

The OVC travels to Evansville, IN and begin festivities on Tuesday. Another league with no top-200 KenPom teams, the regular season champs were Tennessee State and Morehead State, who both went 15-5. They split the regular season matchups. They’re 207 and 282 in KenPom, respectively. Nolan Smith coaches Tennessee State.

The middle of the league is tight and it should make this tournament fairly wide open. UT-Martin saw the wheels fall off going 2-5 over the last 7. They had wins over UNLV and Bradley in non-com.  Tennessee State and Morehead State have been playing the best down the stretch and one of those should win but I’ll pick SIUE who is coached by Marquette legend, Brian Barone.

Summit- 

The Summit begins Tuesday in beautiful Sioux Falls. The regular season champ was North Dakota St who finished 14-2 in league play, splitting with 2nd place St. Thomas. St. Thomas is higher in KenPom at 105 vs. NDSU which is 118. The rest of the league is sub-200. Woof if someone other than the top 2 win.

St. Thomas is the pick because they lead the nation in 2pt shooting % and are 4th overall in effective fg%. NDSU is 233rd in effective fg% defense. Between the two of them, the Tommies are more likely to steal a win in the Big Dance.

Conference Tournaments - March 2, 2026

 

Horizon League:

#1 Seed – Wright State

This is 16 seed fodder and Wright State isn’t much better than the rest of the top half of the conference.  This is a dart throw at best but I’m going with UW-Green Bay to get hot and dance with Doug Gottlieb for the first time

Bubble Carnage

 I've already made it clear the bubble this year is extremely gross and yesterday proved my point even further.  3 of my 4 10  seeds loss with only Missouri surviving out of that group.  Auburn is probaly going to drop all the way out, especially if Ohio State wins today.  UCLA and Texas A&M should only drop to an 11 seed with UCLA more safe than A&M.  On the 11 seed line both California and San Diego State lost. San Diego St. will just flip with the team they lost to, New Mexico, who was my first team out.  California lost at home to a bad Pittsburgh team so that is not only a drop out but possibly down to the next four out.

As for the First Four Out, both Virginia Tech and USC lost while Seton Hall and Oklahoma State both lost from the Next Four Out.  Indiana and Ohio State have big opportunities today while VCU stays alive.

Teams are playing themselves into the NIT at this point.