VCU at Dayton - VCU has one of my last bids and needs to keep winning
San Diego State vs UNLV - The Aztecs are one of the First Four out. A win and a VCU loss would be nice for them.
St. John's at Seton Hall - Seton Hall needs some big wins and just one won't do. This is 100% necessary
UCF at West Virginia - UCF is still OK but a win leaves them as a lock. West Virginia is technically still alive.
Miami OH at Ohio - I don't think Miami OH is on the bubble but win this and there's no question.
America East
#1 Seed – UMBC
The team that brought me so much joy years ago. The game where they beat Virginia is one of
those games that I wish I could go back and watch from start to finish without
knowing the outcome. Only UMBC and Vermont
are above 300 in KenPom. This is a play-in
game no matter who wins. Let’s pick
NJIT.
Big Sky
#1 Seed – Portland State
On the flip side of the KenPom numbers the Big Sky has 7
teams above 200. That’s remarkable in
comparison to the America East. Portland
State won the conference by 1 game but 5 more teams are only 2 games behind
that. This tournament is wide open, and
I would guess Montana State, while 2nd, is probably the favorite. Let’s get crazy here, the pick is 4 seeded Northern
Colorado.
Southland
#1 Seed – Stephen F. Austin
This was supposed to be McNeese State but Will Wade left and
took his dirty grimy hands to North Carolina State where he will fail year
after year until he’s fired since he’s only a good coach when he can
cheat. Well, that’s enough on that
tangent. SFA won the conference but I’m
willing to say McNeese is the favorite.
Each has 1 game and then they will meet in the Finals. The pick in McNeese St.
America East-
The America East tips Saturday. All games are on campus. UMBC won the league at 14-2 and is 200 in KenPom after starting the year at 296.
Perennial bracket buster favorite, Vermont, finished 2nd at 12-4 in league. They own 1 of 2 wins over Vermont and are 238 in KenPom. All other teams are sub-300. UMBC is the pick.
Big Sky-
Live from Boise, the Big Sky also tips Saturday. This league is much more fun than the AmEast. They actually have 4 teams with positive net ratings. Portland State won the league at 13-5 but is 3rd best in KenPom in the league and has lost 3 of 4.
Montana State finished 2nd and is 131st in KenPom. They own a win over St. Thomas and took Utah State to overtime. But, they also lost to a bad Oral Bob team.
Northern Colorado is in a logjam tying for 4th but has the second best KenPom number at 138. Northern Colorado beat regular Colorado in non-con.
Montana State is the most well-balanced of the 3 and are my pick. Do be mindful of Eastern Washington who have won 8 of 9 after starting the year at 5-17. Want to take a flyer on a losing team to make the dance, this might be your squad.
Southern
#1 Seed – East Tennessee State
ETSU are the clear number 1 team here but the next 5 teams
are either 11-7 or 10-8 in the conference.
ETSU can get a 15 seed but anybody else is probably a non-play in game
16 seed. Wofford, Mercer, and Furman have
also all had a bit of success in the tournament so the winner is live to at
least put up a fight. My pick is still
ETSU.
Coastal
#1 Seed – UNC-Wilmington
The Seahwaks are the top seed but this is a fairly open
tournament. Kurly has the Pride winning
it all and I cn see that happening. The
top 5 all have a chance and depending on who gets it will determine if they are
a 13 or 14 seed. I’d love to pick
William and Mary but ultimately I think Charleston get it done. The pick is Charleston
Winners:
Indiana, California, Ohio State, and Stanford
Ohio State remains in the bracket and may be moving out of the play in game. The are getting hot at the right time. Indiana and California are looking to move back in should somebody lose. Hint: New Mexico lost. Stanford remains way outside but they have a pulse.
Losers:
SMU, Texas, New Mexico, and USC
SMU and Texas are 95% safe but a loss still doesn't look good. New Mexico's loss gives an opening to Indiana or California. I haven't updated the metrics yet but it's going to be close. USC is done.
Bubble Tonight:
Nothing, Zip, Zylch, Nada. The negative side to getting good Friday night games during the season is the NCAA gave Thursday night to the women. Meh
CAA-
The Coastal, sigh, tips off Friday in D.C. UNC-Wilmington are the regular season champs, going 15-3 in league play and 26-5 overall. Head coach Takayo Siddle will be a hot name during the upcoming coaching cycle. They’re 99th in KenPom overall.
Charleston finished 2nd behind Chris Mack. The Cougars are 142nd in KenPom. 3rd place Hofstra is 92nd in KenPom, lead by Speedy Claxton.
The winner should be Hofstra or UNCW. UNCW could get a 12-13 seed and would be a good pick to pull off an upset. Hofstra isn’t a bad club and own wins over Pitt and Syracuse. They’ve won 8 of 9 but a 5-game losing streak to close January hurts the overall resume. I’ll pick UNCW but Hofstra has my attention.
SoCon-
What to make of the SoCon as the tourney tips from Asheville on Friday. East Tennessee State won the regular season title and is 141st in KenPom. Mercer finished tied 2nd and is 182nd. Samford tied them and is 208.
Usual contenders, Wofford and Furman aren’t the teams of the last decade. Wofford is 248 in KenPom while Furman is 203. UNC-Greensboro is 304 this year. Down year for the league.
I’ll take ETSU because Mercer doesn’t play any defense but I won’t be stunned to see some chicanery here.
