It's probably not fair to say New Mexico and Steve Alford were considered afterthoughts heading into the season in the Mountain West, but most expected a 4th, maybe 3rd place finish. Yet, they stand today at 24-4 and 11-2 in conference and is 2nd in RPI. Let's take a look at the Lobos.
They're 28th overall in KenPom, 82nd on offense and 10th on defense. The Lobos make their hay on defense. Teams have an effective fg% of 45.6%, 66th best. That could be better if they defended the arc a tad better. Opponents shoot 34.6% from deep which is pretty poor. Also, the Lobos opponents get 36% of their scores this way, 6th worst in the land. They will be susceptible to teams that can shoot long range. They don't force a ton of turnovers but they keep teams off the offensive glass. Their defensive rebounding% is 27.7%, 32nd best. And they do not foul. Opponents FTA/FGA is 26.0. That's 14th best and opponents only get 16% of their points from the line, one of the best marks in the land.
Offensively, they're okay. Their shooting is nothing special. They have an effective fg% of 47.7%, only 207th. They also struggle on the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding % is 29.2%, 259th best. They do protect the ball. The Lobos TO% is 18.5%. They do get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 47.1, 5th best. They also shoot 72.7% from the line and get 26.4% of their points that way, 3rd best overall. If you look at their game logs, they can and have scored against good teams both at home and the road.
Over the weekend, Junior G Kendall Williams went off at Colorado State helping end the Rams home winning streak. He poured in 46 points, making 10-12 from deep. Having caught the end of the game, I can say he was unconcious, literally hitting from every conceivable angle. He's the Lobos leading scorer and dish man. Fellow Junior guard Tony Snell is the Lobos best defender and a reliable FT shooter, shooting 84% from the line. SOPH Alex Kirk, a 7' shot-blocker, gets 11 & 8 to go along with nearly 2 blocks per. Kirk has had really nice back-to-back games, getting 19 at CSU and then 25 at home last night against San Diego State.
New Mexico owns a win at Cincinnati and a win over UConn on a neutral court to their credit along with their gaudy MWC record. The only 4 losses are to probable tournament teams, losing to UNLV, St. Louis, SDSU and to South Dakota State (Assuming they get the Summit auto). The one common denominator in those losses was a struggle on offense, including a dog against SDSU where they only scored 34. As we know, those offensive droughts for teams can be a killer.
This should be Steve Alford's 3 trip to the dance at New Mexico. His teams have won one game each time. Perhaps this team, with lower expectations entering the season can breakthough and make a Sweet 16. While it may disapoint Lobo fans if they don't, it shouldn't since the majority of this team will be back next year. This should be a good experience for this team moving forward and come next year, they'll be a team that deserves attention from the get-go.
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