Hoya Paranoia

During halftime of CBS slobber fest coverage of Georgetown-Syracuse, Seth Davis and co. indicated that Georgetown still had a shot at a 1-seed. At first blush, I laughed but then a quick look at where they stood and sure enough, if they keep winning, they'll have a chance.

The Hoyas are 14th in KenPom largely on their defense which is 5th best in AdjustedD. Offensively, they have some work to do as they are 76th overall. Overall scoring, the Hoyas are 9th best defensively and 109th offensively. They really make it hard to get good shots against them. Opponents have an effective fg% of 42.4 which is 4th best overall. Teams only shoot 29.4% from deep (17th) and 41.6% from inside the arc (12th). The Hoyas TO % is 22.1 on defense, 66th best. They actually are below average on defensive rebounding % by just a smidge. Finally, they don't foul very much so you'll have to earn buckets against them.

Offensively, they're not as good though they have a potential POY in Otto Porter who helps hide their defeciencies. They shoot well enough for the most part, with an effective fg% of 51.6%, 65th best overall. They also do a sufficient job of protecting the ball but are weak on the offensive glass, 224th in offensive rebounding %. They get to the line at about the national clip but shoot a paltry 67.8%, 222nd best. They've had bad offensive performances this season and that will probably bite them in the tournament.

As I noted, Otto Porter has worked his way into POY talk with a great stretch of games. He had 33 yesterday at Syracuse and has been getting 16 & 8 this season as only a Sophomore. he shoots 44% from deep but gets only about 1 per game. He has an effective FG% of 57.2%. Perhaps he will be dynamic enough to propel the Hoyas to a deep run. We know psingle players are more than capable of doing this and frees up those around him.

Markel Starks is teh Hoyas second leading scorer and has been a consistent performer for them. he also shoots well from deep, shooting 42.7% from 3. Keep an eye on Frosh d'Vauntes Smith-Rivera who 2 games ago dropped 33 on DePaul in a rout. He's been coming on and is listed with 4 others as significant contributors for KenPom. This team gets a lot of guys involved.

The Hoyas are 13th in RPI with their best wins all being in the Big East. Their best win outside of conference was over an enigmatic UCLA team early in the season. Their last loss was their worst, in the middle of January at South Florida. I think this is a good team and has talent but I also wonder about just how good the Big East is this year. That's not a knock on the conference, but it is young and definitely isn't as good as the last few seasons.

The Hoyas have a chance to position themselves for a nice seed for the dance. Defensively, they'll frustrate you but given their offensive lapses at times, they won't run away from good teams or shouldn't. I believe this team will go as far as Otto Porter takes them and that could be into the 2nd weekend. If his supporting cast is up to the task, an Elite 8 isn't out of the question. A loss on the opening weekend wouldn't shock me either, though. Let's see what Otto Porter does over the next two weeks.