Monday, February 4, 2013

Hurricane Warning

The leader of the ACC is the Miami Hurricanes. At 8-0 in conference and 17-3 overall, they've become the team you're starting to see in Elite 8, Final 4 conversations after they won at NC State this past weekend on a last second tip-in. As of this moment, they have the nations top RPI and second toughest schedule. They're 13th overall in KenPom with an adjusted O that is 35th and an adjusted D that is 4th.

On offense, they don't do anything special but they don't turn the ball over with a turnover % of only 16.4, 16th in the nation. They're efficient enough and their effective FG% is 51.2, 67th. They're so-so at the line, shooting only 66.2% and slightly above average at getting there. Defensively, they're stout. Opposing effective FG% is only 43.3%, 18th best. They give up less offensive rebounds than the nation average but get fewer, too. They also don't foul, as they are 27th in FTA/FGA defensively, well ahead of the national average.

They have 4 key players to know. The big men are Seniors Kenny Kadji who averages 13 & 7 and recently returning Reggie Johnson who averages nearly a double-double. Johnson had missed 9 games due to injury. The backcourt is led by Senior Durand Scott who gets 14ppg and SOPH PG Shane Larkin, son of baseball HOF Barry Larkin. Larkin shoots 41% from deep.

Key wins besdies in conference include an impressive win at home over Michigan State. The 3 losses include 2 on neutral courts to Indiana State (A probable bubble team) and a good ball club in Arizona. They do have a slight head scratching loss early in the year at Florida Gulf Coast who at least is a Top-100 RPI team (93rd).

I like their experience and size and Shane Larkin has been getting good reviews as PG. The calling card is their defensive intensity and Jim Larranaga has a solid tournament resume. I'm not as impressed with their conference record as others. It's still very impressive to get to 8-0 in any league but Carolina isn't vintage, NC State was without Lorenzo Brown and Duke was without Ryan Kelly. That being said, they won those games, 2 of them being on the road and that's ultimately what counts. Are they a Final 4 team? Impossible to say at this moment but they're currently trending the right way. If they can maintain the momentum and lock up a 2 seed or maybe sneak onto the top line, they'd have a shot. To me, it depends on how they finish the 2nd half of conference play. They won't go undefeated but how they lose, where they lose and how often they lose will tell us more. This is new territory for them, let's see how they handle it

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