Thursday, February 14, 2013

The Zags

The committee is doing a mock run today and Gonzaga landed on the 2 line. After playing @ St. Mary's tonight, they don't have a lot left on their schedule to improve much. Their RPI is 12 as of today. I think 2 is probably their ceiling even if they crack the top 4 in the polls. As for KenPom, they're 9th overall. They are 4th in AdjO and 44th in AdjD.

As we can guess, their offensive numbers are pretty good. They have an effective FG% of 55.7, 10th in the land. They don't turn it over. They have a turnover % of 17.8, 43rd best. Their offensive rebounding % is 37.9, 22nd best. They get to the line well enough. They don't make a ton of 3's and we'll get to that soon enough but they shoot a healthy 37.7%, 37th best. 2pt shooting% is 55.4, 7th best. This is a well balanced offense with options.

They're not as good on the defensive end. Teams get 32% of their points from long distance, which is above the national average but they don't foul. They're about average on defensive rebounding %. Their turnover % is above the national average and their effective defensive fg% is above average. While they're not as strong defensively, they're still a very capable defense.

The frontcourt is led by star JR. Kelly Olynyk. Olynyk shoots an impressive 65%, averaging 17.7ppg. He also grabs 7 boards a game. He redshirted last season but has been a dominant force for the Zags this season. SR. Elias Harris adds 15 & 7 as well. SOPH G Kevin Pangos and SOPH Gary Bell run the show. Pangos shoots 45.3% from beyond the arc with a 56.9 effective fg%. These guys are all players and with Olynyk and Harris as scorers, this is team that can get there baskets without relying on 3's.

Gonzaga is 22-2 overall, 10-0 in the WCC who unless St. Mary's wins tonight, is looking like a 1-bid league but that 1 bid could be Final Four good. The Zags only losses are at Butler on a buzzer beater and at home against a red hot shooting Illinois. Illinois shot 42% from the 3pt line, 11-26 overall. That game could be a blueprint on how to beat the Zags. That being said, this is the Zags best team since Adam Morrison watched it all slip away against UCLA. Anything less than a Sweet 16 should be considered a disappointment.

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Nice breakdown! We in Spokane (well, we Zag fans, I'm actually in Colombia) are pretty hyped about our current climb in the polls. But at the same time, it all comes down to what happens in March. Oh yeah, and beating St Mary's was pretty great.

With our success againts a weaker conference comes controversy, so it's refreshing to read an analysis of our team that just focuses on facts rather than speculation.