San Diego State

Both Oklahoma State and Colorado State lost last night? Nice. And CSU got otrebounded for the 1st time all year? Nice.

Next up to the guilliotine is San Diego State, 19-7 (7-5 MWC). The Aztecs are in KenPom's Top 20, settling in at 18. They are 53rd in AdjO and 12th in AdjD. The Aztecs have a RPI of 31. San Diego State played a tougher non-con schedule, losing games to Syracuse and Arizona, with the 'Zona loss coming by a point on a neutral court. They have wins over UCLA, USC & Indiana State. That should get them in, even though they've sort of middled through the Mountain West.

Offensively, they don't do anything special. They do have an issue at the line, shooting only 67.8%, which is 266th in the nation. It could be an issue since they have an advantage getting to the line over their opponents. Opponenets only get 17.2% of their points at the line. That's 305th worst in the nation, good for SDSU.

That leads us to their defense which is pretty good. Opponents have an effective FG% of 43.5%, 20th best. Opponents only shoot 30.4% overall from the arc, 37th best and only 42.5% inside it, 27th best. The Aztecs defensive rebounding % is 26.9%, 20th best. They don't force many turnovers. They're 222nd in turnover % on defense which matches what they do on offense.

They have two lead dogs are JR. Jamaal Franklin who dunked a ball off a backboard pass to himself earlier this season. He gets 16.9ppg. Force him to shoot the 3. He's an abysmal 26% from deep. SR Guard Chase Tapley shoots 40% from deep and has an effective FG% of 54.2%. They have some good young players as well in JJ O'Brien & Winston Shepard.

The Aztecs will need to finish strong to improve seeding, otherwise they're likely a first weekend loser as an 8 or 9. They have enough talent and experience to make a Sweet 16 run but a sluggish conference run could hurt those chances.