According to ESPN's Brett McMurphy (re-alignment guru), Andy Katz & Dana O'Neil, an announcement will be made in the next week that the so-called Catholic 7 will be leaving the Big East following this season and will be taking the Big East name with them.
All reports, from both ESPN & CBS, indicate the league will also announce Xavier & Butler will be joining them in their inagural season. ESPN, in their report, indicate the league will add St. Louis, Dayton & Creighton for 2014-15.
The move was expediated by Fox Sports who will also announce they will have the TV rights to the league. Fox Sports is holding a press conference on Tuesday announcing the launch of Fox Sports 1 and Fox Sports 2.
So, Marquette fans, this is your new league next year:
- St. John's
-Villanova
- Seton Hall
- Providence
-Georgetown
- DePaul
- Xavier
- Butler
Marquette will lose its rivalry with Notre Dame, though one expects each would like to schedule one another, its rivalry with Cncinnati which goes way back even before the Great Midwest & its matchups with Louisville which date back to Conference USA and before and included some memorable games.
They do renew a rivalry with Xavier, a team they once played regularly and includes a tourney game from a few years back.
I'd guess Marquette & Georgetown would enter next year as favorites. It stinks losing Syracuse, Louisville, Cincinnati, UConn & Pittsburgh games but the 16 team league didn't mean home games against those clubs anyway. Methinks a trip to Hinkle would be fun in the future.
FYI: This is how Marquette has fared historically against their future conference opponents -
vs. DePaul, 68-44 (loss in '79 NCAA tournament)
vs. Creighton. 48-28 * -possible member
vs. Xavier, 45-16 win in '11 NCAA tournament)
vs. St. Louis, 31-23 * -possible member
vs. Dayton, 22-14 * -possible member
vs. St. John's, 14-6
vs. Butler, 14-14
vs. Providence, 12-4 (loss in '97 NCAA tournament)
vs. Seton Hall, 10-2
vs. Villanova, 9-11 (loss in '80 NCAA tournament)
vs. Georgetown, 7-8
Thursday, February 28, 2013
Truth or Consequences, New Meixco
It's probably not fair to say New Mexico and Steve Alford were considered afterthoughts heading into the season in the Mountain West, but most expected a 4th, maybe 3rd place finish. Yet, they stand today at 24-4 and 11-2 in conference and is 2nd in RPI. Let's take a look at the Lobos.
They're 28th overall in KenPom, 82nd on offense and 10th on defense. The Lobos make their hay on defense. Teams have an effective fg% of 45.6%, 66th best. That could be better if they defended the arc a tad better. Opponents shoot 34.6% from deep which is pretty poor. Also, the Lobos opponents get 36% of their scores this way, 6th worst in the land. They will be susceptible to teams that can shoot long range. They don't force a ton of turnovers but they keep teams off the offensive glass. Their defensive rebounding% is 27.7%, 32nd best. And they do not foul. Opponents FTA/FGA is 26.0. That's 14th best and opponents only get 16% of their points from the line, one of the best marks in the land.
Offensively, they're okay. Their shooting is nothing special. They have an effective fg% of 47.7%, only 207th. They also struggle on the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding % is 29.2%, 259th best. They do protect the ball. The Lobos TO% is 18.5%. They do get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 47.1, 5th best. They also shoot 72.7% from the line and get 26.4% of their points that way, 3rd best overall. If you look at their game logs, they can and have scored against good teams both at home and the road.
Over the weekend, Junior G Kendall Williams went off at Colorado State helping end the Rams home winning streak. He poured in 46 points, making 10-12 from deep. Having caught the end of the game, I can say he was unconcious, literally hitting from every conceivable angle. He's the Lobos leading scorer and dish man. Fellow Junior guard Tony Snell is the Lobos best defender and a reliable FT shooter, shooting 84% from the line. SOPH Alex Kirk, a 7' shot-blocker, gets 11 & 8 to go along with nearly 2 blocks per. Kirk has had really nice back-to-back games, getting 19 at CSU and then 25 at home last night against San Diego State.
New Mexico owns a win at Cincinnati and a win over UConn on a neutral court to their credit along with their gaudy MWC record. The only 4 losses are to probable tournament teams, losing to UNLV, St. Louis, SDSU and to South Dakota State (Assuming they get the Summit auto). The one common denominator in those losses was a struggle on offense, including a dog against SDSU where they only scored 34. As we know, those offensive droughts for teams can be a killer.
This should be Steve Alford's 3 trip to the dance at New Mexico. His teams have won one game each time. Perhaps this team, with lower expectations entering the season can breakthough and make a Sweet 16. While it may disapoint Lobo fans if they don't, it shouldn't since the majority of this team will be back next year. This should be a good experience for this team moving forward and come next year, they'll be a team that deserves attention from the get-go.
They're 28th overall in KenPom, 82nd on offense and 10th on defense. The Lobos make their hay on defense. Teams have an effective fg% of 45.6%, 66th best. That could be better if they defended the arc a tad better. Opponents shoot 34.6% from deep which is pretty poor. Also, the Lobos opponents get 36% of their scores this way, 6th worst in the land. They will be susceptible to teams that can shoot long range. They don't force a ton of turnovers but they keep teams off the offensive glass. Their defensive rebounding% is 27.7%, 32nd best. And they do not foul. Opponents FTA/FGA is 26.0. That's 14th best and opponents only get 16% of their points from the line, one of the best marks in the land.
Offensively, they're okay. Their shooting is nothing special. They have an effective fg% of 47.7%, only 207th. They also struggle on the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding % is 29.2%, 259th best. They do protect the ball. The Lobos TO% is 18.5%. They do get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 47.1, 5th best. They also shoot 72.7% from the line and get 26.4% of their points that way, 3rd best overall. If you look at their game logs, they can and have scored against good teams both at home and the road.
Over the weekend, Junior G Kendall Williams went off at Colorado State helping end the Rams home winning streak. He poured in 46 points, making 10-12 from deep. Having caught the end of the game, I can say he was unconcious, literally hitting from every conceivable angle. He's the Lobos leading scorer and dish man. Fellow Junior guard Tony Snell is the Lobos best defender and a reliable FT shooter, shooting 84% from the line. SOPH Alex Kirk, a 7' shot-blocker, gets 11 & 8 to go along with nearly 2 blocks per. Kirk has had really nice back-to-back games, getting 19 at CSU and then 25 at home last night against San Diego State.
New Mexico owns a win at Cincinnati and a win over UConn on a neutral court to their credit along with their gaudy MWC record. The only 4 losses are to probable tournament teams, losing to UNLV, St. Louis, SDSU and to South Dakota State (Assuming they get the Summit auto). The one common denominator in those losses was a struggle on offense, including a dog against SDSU where they only scored 34. As we know, those offensive droughts for teams can be a killer.
This should be Steve Alford's 3 trip to the dance at New Mexico. His teams have won one game each time. Perhaps this team, with lower expectations entering the season can breakthough and make a Sweet 16. While it may disapoint Lobo fans if they don't, it shouldn't since the majority of this team will be back next year. This should be a good experience for this team moving forward and come next year, they'll be a team that deserves attention from the get-go.
Tonight's Bubble Games
North Carolina vs Clemson
A road win, even at Clemson, means a lot for the Tar Heels. A win tonight and they might move into lock status
Temple vs Detroit
Not an easy game for Temple but if they want to remain in the bracket it's best that they win it.
Utah at California
California has won 5 in row and need to avoid a let down game. Keep winning and their spot will become more secure
Virginia vs Duke
A win over the #3 ranked team in the country would probably move Virginia up to a 10 or 9 seed and put them close to lock status. A loss and they might fall out.
BYU vs Gonzaga
One last chance for BYU to get a signiture win; it won't come easy. Without tonight, it may be auto bid or bust.
It Becomes Clearer...Slightly
Not much movement last night inside the bracket besides Arizona and Michigan each falling a seed. However, outside it there were a lot of bubbles popped. Stanford, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Charlotte, and Indiana State all lose and their chances for an at-large are all but gone. With this movement I am only tracking 11 teams outside the bracket. With wins last night Baylor and Boise State move to the First Four Out while Maryland falls to the Also Considered bucket. Arizona State is also on thin ice and cannot afford anymore regular season losses. Things are heating up and this weekend should go a long way to clearing things up as we move to the Conference Tournaments which start next Tuesday.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Rough Night So Far
We've had a couple bubbles popped in the early games. Charlotte loses and they will fall completely out of contention for an at-large bid. Indiana State might be joining them as well as their free fall continues with a home loss to under .500 Drake.
In the next group of teams are Maryland and Arkansas who were looking to climb back into the bracket with a successful 2-0 week. Unfortunately, they both lost tonight and take a hit in their bid to get a bid.
As for the other side of things, Kentucky hangs on to a bid with a resounding victory over over-matched Mississippi State. Baylor also hangs on at West Virginia while Boise State crushes Nevada.
On the opposite side of the bracket some top teams struggled as well. Michigan loses a late large lead to Penn State and Arizona is struggling at USC.
It's late in the year but there is a ton of movement left in the bracket...
Tonight's Bubble Games
There’s a large group of Bubble Teams in action tonight. Let’s break them down into groups:
Teams that need to win to stay in the conversation:
Charlotte vs Dayton
Boise State vs Nevada
Texas A&M vs Mississippi
Stanford vs Colorado
Teams out who would be in serious jeopardy if they lost:
Indiana State vs Drake
Arkansas vs LSU
Iowa vs Purdue
Teams out that could leapfrog a team with a win:
Arizona State vs UCLA
Baylor vs West Virginia
Maryland vs Georgia Tech
Teams In that could fall out with a loss:
Kentucky vs Mississippi State
St. Mary’s vs Pepperdine
Mississippi vs Texas A&M
Special Shout Out Game:
Akron vs Ohio – whoever win has a solid shot at an at-large should they meet again in the MAC Championship. If Akron wins they would definitely be in the conversation for an at-large. Ohio can’t get an at-large with a loss tonight.
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Today's Bubble Watch
Indiana at Minnesota
Minny is probably still comfortably in but a win today and they are a virtual lock. Tonight should be competitive; maybe a Gopher win?
Memphis at Xavier
This is a bubble buster for Xavier. A loss and they are done
Auburn at Alabama
The Tide don’t have a lot of room for error especially after losing to LSU. They need every game and a run in the SEC tournament
Wyoming at Air Force
Let’s be honest, neither have much of a chance but I like to leave teams in the Also Considered until they are way past done
Florida at Tennessee
I’m not currently watching the Vols but that doesn’t mean I have noticed them lately. A win tonight and they probably are in my Next Four Out
Monday, February 25, 2013
BIG SMOOVE
Enjoy chasing ACC football titles, Syracuse. I was wondering for awhile what the hell the student section was yelling when Davante went to the line. "Automatic", is the chant. Nice.
Only the Lonely: Memphis Tigers
In their last year in Conference USA, the Memphis Tigers are laying waste to the league, undefeated to this point and 24-3 overall. The Tigers are sneaking up in the polls and in mock brackets. How good are the Tigers? I'm not sure we really know or can know given the dearth of good teams in Conference USA this season.
They stand 18th today in RPI but their results don't inspire you. Their best wins are over Southern Miss and then Tennessee, Northern Iowa & Ohio. They lost at home early in the season to Louisville and at Atlantis to VCU & Minnesota. At the time, neither was a bad loss. The Gophers have been roughed up in conference play but are probably still bound for the dance.
In KenPom, the Tigers are 38th overall. They're AdjustedO is 60th and AdjustedD is 32nd. On offense, they shoot the ball pretty well. They have an effective fg% of 53.1 (26th). Nationally, they're the 21st best team in overall scoring. They get to the offensive glass. They are 28th in the nation in offensive rebounding %. They get to the line well above the national average but shoot only 68.8%, slightly before the national average. Their big bugaboo on offense is the turnover. The Tigers TO% is 21.3%, 240th in the nation. As is often the case, they rely on some young players. Interestingly, they share the ball well. They have an A/FGM % of 62.4%. That's 25th in the nation. Not turning the ball over is a key for them as they go forward.
Defensively, opponents only have an effective fg% of 45.3% (48th). The Tigers are susceptible to giving ups some 3's. Opponents shoot 34.5%, 209th worst defensively. Despite that, teams don't make that many overall but when they get their looks, they go down. Teams get about the national average of their points from deep against Memphis. They do force steals. Their 17th in the nation in steal %. Turnover % overall is 22.7%, 47th best. They are below average on the defensive glass. And opponents get to the line at about the national average against Memphis, so they typically have an advantage there.
JR. guard Joe Jackson is their leading scorer getting about 14ppg. His effective fg% is 61% and gets 5 dishes per game to go along with nearly 3 TOs pg. JR big man Tarik Black hasn't played as well as he did last year and shoots only 51% from the line. He still gets 8 & 8. SOPH, swing man Adonis Thomas adds 12 and 4.5rpg. He'll take some 3's which isn't good since he's 18-66 this year. Basically, he likes to shoot when he's in the game, shooting 26% of his possessions on offense. Wouldn't be an issue if his effective fg% wasn't 44.4%. The Tigers get significant contributions from Freshmen G Geron Johnson and big man Shaq Goodwin who also playes on the football team. Johnson is a stat sheet filler. He goes for 10.7/4.5/3.3 but also turns it over nearly 3 times a game. Goodwin is loose with the ball, too. Goodwin will go to the glass when he's in the game.
You give Memphis credit for taking care of business in conference and are working their way up the seed line. They dominated Southern Miss, probably the 2nd best team in the league. Still not sure what that means. If I saw them on a 5 line, they'd be tempting to pick for an upset. But, they have some numbers to like. They'll be tough to judge in March but traed carefully with them.
They stand 18th today in RPI but their results don't inspire you. Their best wins are over Southern Miss and then Tennessee, Northern Iowa & Ohio. They lost at home early in the season to Louisville and at Atlantis to VCU & Minnesota. At the time, neither was a bad loss. The Gophers have been roughed up in conference play but are probably still bound for the dance.
In KenPom, the Tigers are 38th overall. They're AdjustedO is 60th and AdjustedD is 32nd. On offense, they shoot the ball pretty well. They have an effective fg% of 53.1 (26th). Nationally, they're the 21st best team in overall scoring. They get to the offensive glass. They are 28th in the nation in offensive rebounding %. They get to the line well above the national average but shoot only 68.8%, slightly before the national average. Their big bugaboo on offense is the turnover. The Tigers TO% is 21.3%, 240th in the nation. As is often the case, they rely on some young players. Interestingly, they share the ball well. They have an A/FGM % of 62.4%. That's 25th in the nation. Not turning the ball over is a key for them as they go forward.
Defensively, opponents only have an effective fg% of 45.3% (48th). The Tigers are susceptible to giving ups some 3's. Opponents shoot 34.5%, 209th worst defensively. Despite that, teams don't make that many overall but when they get their looks, they go down. Teams get about the national average of their points from deep against Memphis. They do force steals. Their 17th in the nation in steal %. Turnover % overall is 22.7%, 47th best. They are below average on the defensive glass. And opponents get to the line at about the national average against Memphis, so they typically have an advantage there.
JR. guard Joe Jackson is their leading scorer getting about 14ppg. His effective fg% is 61% and gets 5 dishes per game to go along with nearly 3 TOs pg. JR big man Tarik Black hasn't played as well as he did last year and shoots only 51% from the line. He still gets 8 & 8. SOPH, swing man Adonis Thomas adds 12 and 4.5rpg. He'll take some 3's which isn't good since he's 18-66 this year. Basically, he likes to shoot when he's in the game, shooting 26% of his possessions on offense. Wouldn't be an issue if his effective fg% wasn't 44.4%. The Tigers get significant contributions from Freshmen G Geron Johnson and big man Shaq Goodwin who also playes on the football team. Johnson is a stat sheet filler. He goes for 10.7/4.5/3.3 but also turns it over nearly 3 times a game. Goodwin is loose with the ball, too. Goodwin will go to the glass when he's in the game.
You give Memphis credit for taking care of business in conference and are working their way up the seed line. They dominated Southern Miss, probably the 2nd best team in the league. Still not sure what that means. If I saw them on a 5 line, they'd be tempting to pick for an upset. But, they have some numbers to like. They'll be tough to judge in March but traed carefully with them.
Monday Bracketology
| 1 seed vs 16 seed |
| Indiana (B1G) vs Southern(SWAC)/High Point(Bsouth) |
| Duke vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/Robert Morris(NEC) |
| Gonzaga (WCC) vs Mercer (Asun) |
| Miami (ACC) vs Northeastern (CAA) |
| 2 seed vs 15 seed |
| Michigan vs Niagara (MAAC) |
| Florida (SEC) vs Montana (Bsky) |
| Kansas (B12) vs Long Beach State (Bwest) |
| Louisville vs Harvard (Ivy) |
| 3 seed vs 14 seed |
| Michigan State vs Valparasio (Horizon) |
| Arizona (Pac12) vs Stony Brook (Aeast) |
| New Mexico (MWC) vs Davidson (SoCon) |
| Georgetown vs Northwestern St (Sland) |
| 4 seed vs 13 seed |
| Syracuse (Beast) vs Bucknell (Patriot) |
| Kansas State vs South Dakota State (Summit) |
| Wisconsin vs Akron (MAC) |
| Oklahoma State vs Louisiana Tech (WAC) |
| 5 seed vs 12 seed |
| Ohio State vs Belmont (OVC) |
| Butler vs Kentucky/Temple |
| Pittsburgh vs Villanova/Mississippi |
| Marquette vs Virginia |
| 6 seed vs 11 seed |
| Notre Dame vs California |
| UNLV vs St. Mary's |
| Oregon vs Iowa State |
| Memphis (Cusa) vs Mid Tenn State (Sbelt) |
| 7 seed vs 10 seed |
| UCLA vs Cinncinati |
| Colorado State vs LaSalle |
| N. Carolina State vs Minnesota |
| San Diego State vs North Carolina |
| 8 seed vs 9 seed |
| Wichita State (MVC) vs Colorado |
| Creighton vs Illinois |
| St. Louis (A10) vs Missouri |
| Oklahoma vs VCU |
| First Four Out |
| Maryland |
| Baylor |
| St. John's |
| Arizona State |
| Next Four Out |
| Boise State |
| Indiana State |
| BYU |
| Southern Miss |
| Also Considered |
| Stanford |
| Wyoming |
| Iowa |
| Xavier |
| Texas A&M |
| Arkansas |
| Alabama |
| Charlotte |
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Hoya Paranoia
During halftime of CBS slobber fest coverage of Georgetown-Syracuse, Seth Davis and co. indicated that Georgetown still had a shot at a 1-seed. At first blush, I laughed but then a quick look at where they stood and sure enough, if they keep winning, they'll have a chance.
The Hoyas are 14th in KenPom largely on their defense which is 5th best in AdjustedD. Offensively, they have some work to do as they are 76th overall. Overall scoring, the Hoyas are 9th best defensively and 109th offensively. They really make it hard to get good shots against them. Opponents have an effective fg% of 42.4 which is 4th best overall. Teams only shoot 29.4% from deep (17th) and 41.6% from inside the arc (12th). The Hoyas TO % is 22.1 on defense, 66th best. They actually are below average on defensive rebounding % by just a smidge. Finally, they don't foul very much so you'll have to earn buckets against them.
Offensively, they're not as good though they have a potential POY in Otto Porter who helps hide their defeciencies. They shoot well enough for the most part, with an effective fg% of 51.6%, 65th best overall. They also do a sufficient job of protecting the ball but are weak on the offensive glass, 224th in offensive rebounding %. They get to the line at about the national clip but shoot a paltry 67.8%, 222nd best. They've had bad offensive performances this season and that will probably bite them in the tournament.
As I noted, Otto Porter has worked his way into POY talk with a great stretch of games. He had 33 yesterday at Syracuse and has been getting 16 & 8 this season as only a Sophomore. he shoots 44% from deep but gets only about 1 per game. He has an effective FG% of 57.2%. Perhaps he will be dynamic enough to propel the Hoyas to a deep run. We know psingle players are more than capable of doing this and frees up those around him.
Markel Starks is teh Hoyas second leading scorer and has been a consistent performer for them. he also shoots well from deep, shooting 42.7% from 3. Keep an eye on Frosh d'Vauntes Smith-Rivera who 2 games ago dropped 33 on DePaul in a rout. He's been coming on and is listed with 4 others as significant contributors for KenPom. This team gets a lot of guys involved.
The Hoyas are 13th in RPI with their best wins all being in the Big East. Their best win outside of conference was over an enigmatic UCLA team early in the season. Their last loss was their worst, in the middle of January at South Florida. I think this is a good team and has talent but I also wonder about just how good the Big East is this year. That's not a knock on the conference, but it is young and definitely isn't as good as the last few seasons.
The Hoyas have a chance to position themselves for a nice seed for the dance. Defensively, they'll frustrate you but given their offensive lapses at times, they won't run away from good teams or shouldn't. I believe this team will go as far as Otto Porter takes them and that could be into the 2nd weekend. If his supporting cast is up to the task, an Elite 8 isn't out of the question. A loss on the opening weekend wouldn't shock me either, though. Let's see what Otto Porter does over the next two weeks.
The Hoyas are 14th in KenPom largely on their defense which is 5th best in AdjustedD. Offensively, they have some work to do as they are 76th overall. Overall scoring, the Hoyas are 9th best defensively and 109th offensively. They really make it hard to get good shots against them. Opponents have an effective fg% of 42.4 which is 4th best overall. Teams only shoot 29.4% from deep (17th) and 41.6% from inside the arc (12th). The Hoyas TO % is 22.1 on defense, 66th best. They actually are below average on defensive rebounding % by just a smidge. Finally, they don't foul very much so you'll have to earn buckets against them.
Offensively, they're not as good though they have a potential POY in Otto Porter who helps hide their defeciencies. They shoot well enough for the most part, with an effective fg% of 51.6%, 65th best overall. They also do a sufficient job of protecting the ball but are weak on the offensive glass, 224th in offensive rebounding %. They get to the line at about the national clip but shoot a paltry 67.8%, 222nd best. They've had bad offensive performances this season and that will probably bite them in the tournament.
As I noted, Otto Porter has worked his way into POY talk with a great stretch of games. He had 33 yesterday at Syracuse and has been getting 16 & 8 this season as only a Sophomore. he shoots 44% from deep but gets only about 1 per game. He has an effective FG% of 57.2%. Perhaps he will be dynamic enough to propel the Hoyas to a deep run. We know psingle players are more than capable of doing this and frees up those around him.
Markel Starks is teh Hoyas second leading scorer and has been a consistent performer for them. he also shoots well from deep, shooting 42.7% from 3. Keep an eye on Frosh d'Vauntes Smith-Rivera who 2 games ago dropped 33 on DePaul in a rout. He's been coming on and is listed with 4 others as significant contributors for KenPom. This team gets a lot of guys involved.
The Hoyas are 13th in RPI with their best wins all being in the Big East. Their best win outside of conference was over an enigmatic UCLA team early in the season. Their last loss was their worst, in the middle of January at South Florida. I think this is a good team and has talent but I also wonder about just how good the Big East is this year. That's not a knock on the conference, but it is young and definitely isn't as good as the last few seasons.
The Hoyas have a chance to position themselves for a nice seed for the dance. Defensively, they'll frustrate you but given their offensive lapses at times, they won't run away from good teams or shouldn't. I believe this team will go as far as Otto Porter takes them and that could be into the 2nd weekend. If his supporting cast is up to the task, an Elite 8 isn't out of the question. A loss on the opening weekend wouldn't shock me either, though. Let's see what Otto Porter does over the next two weeks.
Saturday, February 23, 2013
Today's Bubble Games
Southern Miss at Memphis
Not much heft on Southern Miss's resume. A top 25 RPI road win would do wonders.
Baylor at Oklahoma
The Bears predicted free fall has begun. A loss here probably opens the door for a team to steal their bid
St. Mary's vs Creighton
The Gaels almost need this win to solidify their at-large profile. A loss and they might need the auto-bid to get in. A loss here and then again in the conference tournament championship might leave them short.
Arkansas at Florida
Can the Razorbacks follow up their big win at home against the Gators with a season sweep? A bid depends on it.
Tennessee at Texas A&M
I probably shouldn't be tracking Texas A&M but I must have a soft spot for the Aggies. They need to win out for any chance.
California at Oregon State
The Golden Bears continue their "March" to a bid. Ha, I made a pun
Boise State at Fresno State
Although Boise has great computer numbers they need to start stockpiling wins.
Arizona State vs Washington
The Sun Devils is one team I can't figure out. Not the best computer numbers but a lot of people have them in. As of today, I just don't see it. Keep winning and we'll talk.
Mississippi vs Auburn
Please no Marshall Henderson in March. Why is ESPN publicizing this douche bag?
Villanova vs Marquette
Team Jeckyl and Hyde gets Marquette today. Which team shows up? If the wildcats win they might be able to leap frog a team like Kentucky or Temple, even if they win too.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Friday Bracketology
| 1 seed vs 16 seed |
| Indiana (B1G) vs Southern(SWAC)/High Point(Bsouth) |
| Miami (ACC) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/Robert Morris(NEC) |
| Duke vs Mercer (Asun) |
| Gonzaga (WCC) vs Northeastern (CAA) |
| 2 seed vs 15 seed |
| Michigan vs Niagara (MAAC) |
| Florida (SEC) vs Montana (Bsky) |
| Michigan State vs Long Beach State (Bwest) |
| Kansas (B12) vs Harvard (Ivy) |
| 3 seed vs 14 seed |
| Louisville vs Valparasio (Horizon) |
| Arizona (Pac12) vs Stony Brook (Aeast) |
| Syracuse (Beast) vs Davidson (SoCon) |
| New Mexico (MWC) vs Northwestern St (Sland) |
| 4 seed vs 13 seed |
| Georgetown vs Bucknell (Patriot) |
| Kansas State vs South Dakota State (Summit) |
| Marquette vs Akron (MAC) |
| Wisconsin vs Louisiana Tech (WAC) |
| 5 seed vs 12 seed |
| Butler vs Belmont (OVC) |
| Oklahoma State vs Villanova/Temple |
| Pittsburgh vs Baylor/Kentucky |
| Ohio State vs St. Mary's |
| 6 seed vs 11 seed |
| Colorado State vs California |
| N. Carolina State vs Mississippi |
| Notre Dame vs Mississippi |
| Illinois vs Mid Tenn State (Sbelt) |
| 7 seed vs 10 seed |
| UNLV vs LaSalle |
| Oregon vs Minnesota |
| Missouri vs North Carolina |
| Memphis (Cusa) vs Cinncinati |
| 8 seed vs 9 seed |
| UCLA vs Colorado |
| Creighton vs Oklahoma |
| St. Louis (A10) vs VCU |
| Wichita State (MVC) vs San Diego State |
| First Four Out |
| St. John's |
| Maryland |
| Alabama |
| Arizona State |
| Next Four Out |
| Virginia |
| Boise State |
| Charlotte |
| Southern Miss |
| Also Considered |
| BYU |
| Stanford |
| Wyoming |
| Iowa |
| Xavier |
| Texas A&M |
| Arkansas |
| Indiana State |
Thursday, February 21, 2013
San Diego State
Both Oklahoma State and Colorado State lost last night? Nice. And CSU got otrebounded for the 1st time all year? Nice.
Next up to the guilliotine is San Diego State, 19-7 (7-5 MWC). The Aztecs are in KenPom's Top 20, settling in at 18. They are 53rd in AdjO and 12th in AdjD. The Aztecs have a RPI of 31. San Diego State played a tougher non-con schedule, losing games to Syracuse and Arizona, with the 'Zona loss coming by a point on a neutral court. They have wins over UCLA, USC & Indiana State. That should get them in, even though they've sort of middled through the Mountain West.
Offensively, they don't do anything special. They do have an issue at the line, shooting only 67.8%, which is 266th in the nation. It could be an issue since they have an advantage getting to the line over their opponents. Opponenets only get 17.2% of their points at the line. That's 305th worst in the nation, good for SDSU.
That leads us to their defense which is pretty good. Opponents have an effective FG% of 43.5%, 20th best. Opponents only shoot 30.4% overall from the arc, 37th best and only 42.5% inside it, 27th best. The Aztecs defensive rebounding % is 26.9%, 20th best. They don't force many turnovers. They're 222nd in turnover % on defense which matches what they do on offense.
They have two lead dogs are JR. Jamaal Franklin who dunked a ball off a backboard pass to himself earlier this season. He gets 16.9ppg. Force him to shoot the 3. He's an abysmal 26% from deep. SR Guard Chase Tapley shoots 40% from deep and has an effective FG% of 54.2%. They have some good young players as well in JJ O'Brien & Winston Shepard.
The Aztecs will need to finish strong to improve seeding, otherwise they're likely a first weekend loser as an 8 or 9. They have enough talent and experience to make a Sweet 16 run but a sluggish conference run could hurt those chances.
Next up to the guilliotine is San Diego State, 19-7 (7-5 MWC). The Aztecs are in KenPom's Top 20, settling in at 18. They are 53rd in AdjO and 12th in AdjD. The Aztecs have a RPI of 31. San Diego State played a tougher non-con schedule, losing games to Syracuse and Arizona, with the 'Zona loss coming by a point on a neutral court. They have wins over UCLA, USC & Indiana State. That should get them in, even though they've sort of middled through the Mountain West.
Offensively, they don't do anything special. They do have an issue at the line, shooting only 67.8%, which is 266th in the nation. It could be an issue since they have an advantage getting to the line over their opponents. Opponenets only get 17.2% of their points at the line. That's 305th worst in the nation, good for SDSU.
That leads us to their defense which is pretty good. Opponents have an effective FG% of 43.5%, 20th best. Opponents only shoot 30.4% overall from the arc, 37th best and only 42.5% inside it, 27th best. The Aztecs defensive rebounding % is 26.9%, 20th best. They don't force many turnovers. They're 222nd in turnover % on defense which matches what they do on offense.
They have two lead dogs are JR. Jamaal Franklin who dunked a ball off a backboard pass to himself earlier this season. He gets 16.9ppg. Force him to shoot the 3. He's an abysmal 26% from deep. SR Guard Chase Tapley shoots 40% from deep and has an effective FG% of 54.2%. They have some good young players as well in JJ O'Brien & Winston Shepard.
The Aztecs will need to finish strong to improve seeding, otherwise they're likely a first weekend loser as an 8 or 9. They have enough talent and experience to make a Sweet 16 run but a sluggish conference run could hurt those chances.
Tonight's Bubble Games
LaSalle @ Temple
The Explorers can probably afford to lose this game but Temple absolutely needs to win to stay in the bracket.
Georgia @ Arkansas
Arkansas is barely in the conversation for a bid but they can hang with a win here. A loss probably dooms them to the NIT
Iowa @ Nebraska
Take the last statement and replace Arkansas with Iowa
California @ Oregon
I’d have to crunch some numbers before dropping the Bears out of the bracket if they lost. They might be able to hang on to the last at-large if they did. A win probably moves them up a whole seed from a questionable 12 to an 11.
Stanford @ Oregon State
Take the Arkansas and Iowa statement and plug Stanford in J
BYU @ St. Mary’s
A very intriguing matchup here. BYU is currently out but a road win would do wonders for their resume. St. Mary’s is currently in the last 5, would a loss move them all the way out? Would a win move them up more than 1 or 2 spots?
Final Four Revisted...again
No analysis, just my January selections and my new selections
JANUARY SELECTIONS
**Note, these are based on Ryan Kelly and Seth Curry coming back for Duke by March.
Elite Eight:
Indiana
Michigan
Arizona
Miami (Jim Larranaga plus great computer numbers)
Final Four:
Louisville
Duke (replace with Indiana if Kelly is out)
Kansas
Gonzaga
Championship Game:
Kansas over Duke (replace with Louisville if Kelly is out)
Elite Eight:
Indiana
Michigan
Arizona
Miami (Jim Larranaga plus great computer numbers)
Final Four:
Louisville
Duke (replace with Indiana if Kelly is out)
Kansas
Gonzaga
Championship Game:
Kansas over Duke (replace with Louisville if Kelly is out)
FEBRUARY SELECTIONS
**Note, these are based on Ryan Kelly coming back for Duke by March.
Elite Eight:
Wisconsin
Florida
Louisville
Miami
Elite Eight:
Wisconsin
Florida
Louisville
Miami
Final Four:
Indiana
Duke (replace with Florida if Kelly is out)
Kansas
Syracuse
Championship Game:
Indiana over Syracuse
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Last Call For Some Tonight
There are a couple games tonight where teams are in a must win situation or they’ll fall out of consideration for the bracket. It’s last call for these 5 teams:
Umass at St. Bonavanture
Xavier at Rhode Island
Washington hosting Arizona
Air Force at Boise State (the loser is out)
In addition all 4 of my First Four Out are in action. One of these teams will take Maryland’s spot as the Last 4 in (unless they all lose)
St. John’s hosting South Florida
Alabama hosting Mississippi State
Kentucky hosting Vanderbilt
Arizona State hosting Washington State
A special shout out to Southern Miss who falls somewhere between the above two groups. A win over Utep won’t get them into the bracket but a loss won’t drop them out of consideration.
Bubble Game of the Day:
Iowa State at Baylor – the winner doesn’t get lock status but the loser will probably drop to last 4 in. A must win for both teams.
What does parity mean?
From Jay Bilas today:
What does it mean? Could mean nothing but it could also mean the overriding theme of parity is twofold. One, we've often had parity and two, chances are, the teams in the top 10 are still the best choices in March.
"This week in 2003, Syracuse was ranked 15th (1-4) and Kansas 7th (20-6). Top 5 teams had 18 losses combined."
"Losses among top 5 teams this week? 15 (Indiana No. 1, has 3). This week in 2007, Top 5 had 15 losses, and Florida was No. 3, had 3."
"Total losses of Top 25 teams this week? 112. Total losses of Top 25 one year ago this week? 122. No great teams, but not much different."
What does it mean? Could mean nothing but it could also mean the overriding theme of parity is twofold. One, we've often had parity and two, chances are, the teams in the top 10 are still the best choices in March.
St. Louis vs. Butler FRIDAY
College conferences typically leave Friday night to HS basketball and the NBA. This Friday, the A-10 has a great showdown between the top 2 teams in the league, Butler & St. Louis. St. Louis travels to Hinkle Fieldhouse owning a 17 point win over Butler less than a month ago at SLU.
Since that game, St. Louis has had big leads in all it's games, I believe 17+ is the number but I'm not absolutely certain. That includes a 14 point win over VCU at home last night. Quite frankly, the score wasn't that close as St. Louis held VCU scoreless from the field for a 10 minute period in the 1st half, outscoring them by 19.
After beating Butler, the Billikens beat Dayton at home by 29, Fordham by 17 at Fordham, Richmond by 10 at Richmond and beat a good Charlotte teams by 18 at SLU.
Be a good game for Marquette fans to keep an eye on since both teams could be conference mates sooner than later.
FWIW, KenPom has Butler by 2 in this game. He also has SLU 27th vs. Butler who is 49th. Brian's last bracket had St. Louis as a 10. That won't hold, they'll move up but if it did, they'd be a team no 2 seed would want.
Since that game, St. Louis has had big leads in all it's games, I believe 17+ is the number but I'm not absolutely certain. That includes a 14 point win over VCU at home last night. Quite frankly, the score wasn't that close as St. Louis held VCU scoreless from the field for a 10 minute period in the 1st half, outscoring them by 19.
After beating Butler, the Billikens beat Dayton at home by 29, Fordham by 17 at Fordham, Richmond by 10 at Richmond and beat a good Charlotte teams by 18 at SLU.
Be a good game for Marquette fans to keep an eye on since both teams could be conference mates sooner than later.
FWIW, KenPom has Butler by 2 in this game. He also has SLU 27th vs. Butler who is 49th. Brian's last bracket had St. Louis as a 10. That won't hold, they'll move up but if it did, they'd be a team no 2 seed would want.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Tonight's Bubble Games
Wichita State at Indiana State
The Sycamores need this bad as they’ve gone from a 10 seed to next four out in the last 2 weeks. Meanwhile Wichita State has also fallen from a peak of a 5 seed to an 8 seed. Both teams could use a win tonight.
Florida at Missouri
Take a look at Missouri’s resume before questioning if they are a bubble team. Not too much behind it and a win against a top 3 team would probably put them in lock status. A loss and it’s starting to get dicey for the Tigers
Virginia at Miami
The Cavaliers have 6 top 50 wins already, are they up for one more? I don’t have them in the bracket but a road victory over Miami probably pushes them up and over Temple. I’m calling the upset tonight.
Maryland at Boston College
How do the Terps follow up their win against Duke? Is it a letdown or the start of a run?
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
UNC has been abysmal on the road and need every win they can get. Beating Georgia Tech won’t help them much but a loss could be devastating.
Tuesday Bracketology
| 1 seed vs 16 seed |
| Indiana (B1G) vs Southern(SWAC)/High Point(Bsouth) |
| Miami (ACC) vs NorfolkSt(MEAC)/Robert Morris(NEC) |
| Florida (SEC) vs Mercer (Asun) |
| Gonzaga (WCC) vs Niagara (MAAC) |
| 2 seed vs 15 seed |
| Michigan vs Northeastern (CAA) |
| Kansas (B12) vs Montana (Bsky) |
| Michigan State vs Long Beach State (Bwest) |
| Duke vs Harvard (Ivy) |
| 3 seed vs 14 seed |
| Louisville vs Valparasio (Horizon) |
| Arizona vs Stony Brook (Aeast) |
| Syracuse (Beast) vs Davidson (SoCon) |
| New Mexico (MWC) vs Stephen F. Austin (Sland) |
| 4 seed vs 13 seed |
| Georgetown vs Bucknell (Patriot) |
| Kansas State vs South Dakota State (Summit) |
| Marquette vs Akron (MAC) |
| Oklahoma State vs Louisiana Tech (WAC) |
| 5 seed vs 12 seed |
| Butler vs Belmont (OVC) |
| Wisconsin vs Villanova/Temple |
| Pittsburgh vs St. Mary's/Maryland |
| Ohio State vs California |
| 6 seed vs 11 seed |
| Oregon (Pac12) vs Mid Tenn State (Sbelt) |
| Colorado State vs Baylor |
| N. Carolina State vs Oklahoma |
| UCLA vs LaSalle |
| 7 seed vs 10 seed |
| VCU (A10) vs Iowa State |
| Creighton vs Mississippi |
| Illinois vs St. Louis |
| Notre Dame vs North Carolina |
| 8 seed vs 9 seed |
| Cinncinati vs Colorado |
| UNLV vs Memphis (Cusa) |
| Wichita State (MVC) vs San Diego State |
| Minnesota vs Missouri |
| First Four Out |
| Kentucky |
| St. John's |
| Alabama |
| Arizona State |
| Next Four Out |
| BYU |
| Virginia |
| Washington |
| Indiana State |
| Also Considered |
| Charlotte |
| Southern Miss |
| Stanford |
| Massachusettes |
| Wyoming |
| Florida State |
| Iowa |
| Xavier |
| Texas A&M |
| Arkansas |
| Boise State |
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