The West region played out to form except for one colossal upset, Norfolk State over Missouri. And maybe St. Louis over Memphis but it's not fair when Rick Majerus is coaching one team and Josh Pastner the other.
KenPom tweeted last Fridat night the Norfolk State win over Missouri was equivalent to a 16 beating a 1 while Duke losing to Lehigh was closer to a 13 over a 4, both big upsets either way but gives us a better idea of how unlikely it was Missouri losing that game. I didn't feel confident they'd beat Florida but Norfolk will be one for the ages.
We should also note, there was some rancor about Missouri being the last of the 2-seeds. Maybe the committee knew something after all.
FLORIDA, 12th KenPom (3rd, Adj O; 74th, Adj D) vs. MARQUETTE, 17th KenPom (29th, Adj O; 16th Adj D)
We'll try it this way today so maybe it's a little easier to read. Florida is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. They don't turn it over, 16th in turnover % and shoot well, 8th in effective fg%. Florida fires a lot of 3-pointers and make them at a good clip, 38.3% (3rd). They're above average on the offensive glass but do not get to the line, 249th in the nation in FTA/FGA.
Marquette defensively is very poor on the glass, 301st in defensive rebounding % but with Davante Gardner getting more time, that helps. They're 24th in the nation in turnover % on defense, so something will have to give against Florida. Marquette has a good dfensive fg%, 45th and doesn't committ a lot of fouls.
Defensively, Florida is okay. They also don't foul alot and hold teams to a below average effective fg % of 48.1 just below the national clip. They're okay at protecting the dfensive glass, too, 94th in defensive rebounding %. They're below average in turnover % and Marquette is above average in protecting the ball.
Offensively, Marquette gets to the line very effectively which will be challenged by Florida who plays pretty good defense without fouling. Marquette isn't as good as Florida on offense but they are above average and they're actually above the national average in offensive rebounding %.
This is about one point game in Florida's favor on KenPom as we might suspect. They key will be what kind of production Marquette can get from Gardner and whether Florida is lights out from beyond the arc or just good, a big difference because they get 38% of their scoring from beyond the arc. That's 6th most in the land.
My guess is, Marquette handles the perimeter of Florida well enough to keep it close and Jae Crowder is the difference maker. Marquette 74 Florida 72
MICHIGAN STATE, 3rd KenPom (8th, Adj O; 3rd Adj D) vs. LOUISVILLE, 19th KenPom (116th, Adj O; 2nd Adj D)
If you like slugfests with potential for ugliness, this might be the game for you. 3rd Adj D vs. 2nd Adj D? Let's get it on.
What does Louisville do well on offense? Um, get offensive rebounds for second chance points. 43rd in offensive rebounding %. Effective fg %? 227th. Turnover %? 243rd. FT %? 195th. 3pt%? 286th.
That bodes not-so-well since MSU is pretty good on d. Their flaw is not forcing turnovers, 207th in turnover % but since they clean the boards, 18th in offesnive rebound % and defend, 6th in effective fg% it doesn't really matter.
Louisville is 3rd in efficient defensive fg % but are prone to giving up boards, 255th in defensive rebound %, so there will be second chance opportunities so it'll be up to the junkyard dog Spartan interior to take advantage of that. Louisville does force turnovers, 34th in turnover % and Sparty has moments of being sloppy with the ball but Keith Appling has become more dependable at the point but maybe Siva can be as disruptive as he has been in the last two weeks.
Sparty gets a good chunk of its scoring from the interior, 57.6% of its scoring comes from 2-pts. They are also 25th in offensive rebounding %, so we see they should be able to take advantage of Louisville's weak defensive rebounding.
What does Louisville need to win is the question. They need Peyton Siva to play like he has since the beginning of the Big East tourney. They need Giorgi Dieng to stay on the court. They need Draymond Green to get locked in a the locker room by accident.
Michigan State 68 Louisville 54
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