The East provided zero surprises unless we consider Cincinnati over Florida State a surprise. Other than seeding, that was a game of similar teams that we'd probably call a toss-up, which it was.
If there was any disappointment, it was Vanderbilt who continued its underachieving ways. That's not a knock on Wisconsin who if we looked at the numbers, was the favorite, but a knock on Vanderbilt who has continued first weekend exits despite very good talent. Give Kevin Stallings credit for gathering that talent in a place where getting elite talent is no easy doing but it's been a disaster in the tourney.
WISCONSIN (5th, KenPom, 20th AdjO, 4th AdjD) vs. SYRACUSE (7th, KenPom, 9th AdjO, 15th AdjD)
Wisconsin Four Factors Offense Defense D-1 Avg.
Effective FG% 49.9 (139) 42.0 (2) 49.0
Turnover % 15.1 (2) 18.3 (272) 20.3
Off. Reb % 30.7 (224) 27.7 (29) 32.1
FTA/FGA 30.8 (302) 30.1 (40) 36.4
Other Key Factor: Point Distribution
3pts. 36.3 (18) 20.1 (336) 27.6
2 pts. 45.1 (322) 60.2 (3) 52.0
FT 18.7 (264) 19.7 (210) 20.4
Syracuse Four Factors
Effectice FG % 52.0 (61) 43.9 (11) 49.0
Turnover % 16.0 (6) 25.0 (7) 20.3
Off. Reb % 36.6 (29) 39.2 (341) 32.1
FTA/FGA 32.9 (261) 29.8 (37) 36.4
Other Key Factor: Syracuse Zone
This is an intriguing matchup. I'll guess most pundits lean towards Syracuse and after their season, it's hard not to but their losses were to two teams who went ape from beyond the arc which is what Wisconsin can do. Why I posted their point distribution is, without hitting the three, they can't score any other way. They're not good on the offensive glass, don't get to the line and will have an incredibly difficult time dealing with the length of Syracuse. Syracuse is weaker on the defensive boards than Wisconsin on the offensive glass, so they might find some more buckets around the hoops on put backs.
As we know, Wisconsin doesn't turn it over and Syracuse forces its share of turnovers. The Badgers guards not named Taylor need to be strong with the ball. They had moments against Vandy where that was not the case. Neither team fouls a lot, so that should be a wash. What will be interesting is, Syracuse uses an effective zone defense, something that has vexed Wisconsin in the past and they haven't seen a team with the length of Syracuse. It's not an athleticism difference but a length difference that will matter most.
Since I picked Wisconsin at the beginning of the year for the Final Four in place of Syracuse, I'll stick with them in a close game. As someone said on twitter, it would be very Boeheim-like for one of his most talented teams to be one of his most disappointing.
Wisconsin 57 Syracuse 55
CINCINNATI (25th KenPom, 49th AdjO, 22nd AdjD) vs. OHIO STATE (2nd KenPom, 6th AdjO, 1st Adj D)
Cincinnati Four Factors Offense Defense D-1 AVG.
Effective FG % 47.9 (210) 45.9 (42) 49.0
Turnover % 16.4 (11) 21.8 (90) 20.3
Off. Reb % 35.8 (46) 34.4 (261) 32.1
FTA/FGA 29.7 (318) 25.7 (7) 36.4
Other Key Cincinnati Factor: Shooting 64.4% from the line
Ohio State Four Factors
Effectove FG % 52.5 (50) 46.1 (47) 49.0
Turnover % 17.6 (34) 22.4 (61) 20.3
Off. Reb % 36.0 (38) 24.8 (2) 32.1
FTA/FGA 37.1 (157) 29.1 (30) 36.4
Other Ohio State Factor: 3pt % of 32.8% and Point Distribution
3pt 19.9 (326) 30.4 (71) 27.6
2pt 60.2 (16) 51.7 (193) 52.0
FT 19.9 (205) 18.0 (284) 20.4
This one looks pretty easy to pick on paper and I tend to believe Ohio State wins this game comfortably but there are a few concerns.
Ohio State is the rare college team that is almost exclusively paint oriented. As we can see from their scoring breakdown, they don't make many three's and aren't good at it anyway but with the guys they have, why not take the dunk or layup? For Cincinnati to have a chance to pull the upset, they'll need a herculean effort from Yancy Gates to get Sullinger in foul trouble and hope the bench doesn't provide a spark like it did against Gonzaga. Cincinnati will need to make their 3's like they did against Syracuse in the Big East tournament. Ohio State is somewhat susceptible to giving up 3's.
Cincinnati is weak on the line and don't get there a lot and OSU doesn't foul a lot, so they won't find many opportunities to get cheapies and Aaron Craft looked brilliant defending against Gonzaga. And Ohio State cleans up on the glass defensively, one thing Cicninnati does well offensively. It's an uphill climb
Ohio State 72 Cincinnati 60
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