The Midwest somewhat played out to form, save NC State dumping San Diego State and Georgetown. NC State was picked by Brian to make it to the Elite 8, so kudos to him on that astute observation. Michigan lost but Brian had them out in round one and they were a trendy pick to lose. USF upset Temple who really disappointed at the end of the year. That folks, was our yearly 12-13 game which was pretty good anyway.
The big story was Kendall Marshall of UNC going down with his broken wrist and the subsequent akward interviews with Huckleberry Roy. We really need a vault of Roy soundbites.
KANSAS, 4th KenPom (16th Adj O; 5th Adj D) vs. NC STATE, 35th KenPom (31st Adj O, 73rd Adj D)
This isn't one of Kansas best offensive teams but still has been good enough. They have some flaws, shooting only 69% from the line and don't hit many 3 pointers, getting 24% of their points that way, 253rd in the land. Their effective fg % is 53.4% (25th) and they're above average on the offensive glass, 34.7% offensive rebounding % (78th). They turn it over just less than the national average and they get to the line pretty well. Their FTA/FGA is 41.1 (56th).
On defense, NC State doesn't force many turnovers. Their defensive turnover % is 18.5 (258th) so Kansas average ball handling shouldn't be a great worry. NC State protects the defensive boards about as well as Kansas gets on them offensively. An active Jeff Withey gives KU an edge. NC State does a pretty good job keeping teams off the line. Their defensive fg % is 47.3 (100th).
Defensively, Kansas is a bit tighter than they are on offense. They have an effective defensive fg% of 43.7 (8th). They're board efficient as well. Their defensive rebounding % is 28.7 (48th). They don't force many turnovers and foul a bit more than the Wolfpack but neither is alarming.
On offense, NC State rebounds 35% of their misses (51st). They do a decent job protecting the ball, with a turnover 5 of 18.7% (78th). They also shoot well enough with an effective fg% of 51% (89th). They're an average team in drawing fouls. The bulkof their scoring comes from the world of 2. 58% of their scoring comes that way. They get roughly 22% of their scoring from the arc which is 307th in the land.
If Withey stays out of foul trouble, NC State will have their hands full but if he doesn't, they can steal this game. NC State likes to go inside, so they'll pose an issue for Withey. I think it's a close game until the final TV timeout but KU with the best player, Thomas Robinson pull away. Kansas 72 NC State 66
I didn't do anything with the other game because I'm not sure what to expect out of Carolina. KenPom makes them an 11 point favorite which is sizeable but without Marshall and a touchy Henson and a completetly rattled Williams and with Ohio having nothing to lose, I'm not sure what to expect. Is DJ Cooper this tourney's Stephen Curry?
Whatever the case, I'll still say NC going away, 77-57 but..
No comments:
Post a Comment