Despite the hand-wringing over the process in Champaign, I think Illinois made a slam dunk hire in John Groce. They swung for the fences in trying to get Shaka Smart or Brad Stevens but the guy they hired is just as good. Groce was the lead recruiter at Ohio State so he knows that game and his style is player-friendly. I'm laughing at the power the Chicago Public League tries to wield in this process. If they don't want their kids playing for this guy, then they're idiots.
South Carolina gets and "A" as well bringing in Frank Martin. Don't undersell the job he did at Kansas State. That is not an easy place to win. Neither has South Carolina been. They're going on nearly 20 years since they last won a tournament game but he has roots in the south, largely south Florida, so he should get kids to Columbia. His replacement in Manhattan is Bruce Weber, late of Illinois. Weber replaces a guy who did more than any other coach had in decades but I think he fits the school well and is a midwestern guy. Expectations will be a bit more realistic.
Finally, Mississippi State remains open but it sounds like Kenny Payne of Kentucky may get that job. From what I've read on him, I think this is a great potential hire for them. A guy with a great work ethic, the ability to recruit and hungry. Also, I'm going to be curious how Danny Manning does at Tulsa. That's been a breeding ground for coaches. Lots of people think he will be a very good coach.
As for the games, no breakdowns. Simple pick time.
Kentucky 70 Louisville 57
Ohio State 68 Kansas 62
Saturday, March 31, 2012
Sunday, March 25, 2012
Sunday morning musings and two picks sure to be wrong
The officiating in yesterday's games was an embarrassment to the NCAA tournament. The Syracuse-Luckeye$ game was especially egregious. I'm not sure what game they were watching and credit to both teams for playing a fairly good game despite unpredictable and wrong whistles. But, the highlight was Rick Pitino getting teed up in the Louisville-Florida game for yelling at Peyton Siva for getting a silly foul 30' from the rim. Good job, zebras. You've been terrible all year. Why stop now?
Congratulations to the Luckeye$. That $126.5 million athletic budget paid off.
Baylor can probably give Kentucky some fits today. They're long and if Heslip is hitting his three's, they can keep it close but eventually Baylor will go Baylor and disappear for at least a few minutes and that's when Kentucky buries teams. Kentucky 78 Baylor 68
North Carolina-Kansas should be good. I'm going to assume Huckleberry Roy is so scared of losing to Kansas, he's going to start Marshall. Who knows how effective he can be. He practiced on Saturday but one would have to assume catching the ball has to be somewhat akward and painful.
If he doesn't play and UNC turns it over 20+ times, Kansas should be better suited to take advantage of it. I doubt Carolina outrebounds Kansas by 30 like they did to THE Ohio. Carolina survived THE Ohio by getting great play out of Reggie Bullock and Tyler Zeller and overcoming atrocious play by Harrison Barnes.
Kansas was just as baffling on Friday night doing everything they could to lose the game but survived and advanced like they did against Purdue. Can't do that today. Tyshawn Taylor has been shooting the ball about as bad as he can and he'll need to bounce back. He says he'll keep firing away. Thomas Robinson was the second best player in America this year. Today, he needs to show it and take over.
If Marshall plays and plays semi-effectively, I like UNC 75 KU 71. If not, I still like UNC in a grinder by about the same 4 point margin but lower scoring.
Congratulations to the Luckeye$. That $126.5 million athletic budget paid off.
Baylor can probably give Kentucky some fits today. They're long and if Heslip is hitting his three's, they can keep it close but eventually Baylor will go Baylor and disappear for at least a few minutes and that's when Kentucky buries teams. Kentucky 78 Baylor 68
North Carolina-Kansas should be good. I'm going to assume Huckleberry Roy is so scared of losing to Kansas, he's going to start Marshall. Who knows how effective he can be. He practiced on Saturday but one would have to assume catching the ball has to be somewhat akward and painful.
If he doesn't play and UNC turns it over 20+ times, Kansas should be better suited to take advantage of it. I doubt Carolina outrebounds Kansas by 30 like they did to THE Ohio. Carolina survived THE Ohio by getting great play out of Reggie Bullock and Tyler Zeller and overcoming atrocious play by Harrison Barnes.
Kansas was just as baffling on Friday night doing everything they could to lose the game but survived and advanced like they did against Purdue. Can't do that today. Tyshawn Taylor has been shooting the ball about as bad as he can and he'll need to bounce back. He says he'll keep firing away. Thomas Robinson was the second best player in America this year. Today, he needs to show it and take over.
If Marshall plays and plays semi-effectively, I like UNC 75 KU 71. If not, I still like UNC in a grinder by about the same 4 point margin but lower scoring.
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Saturday morning musing and two bad picks
The Kentucky-Indiana game was a thing of beauty. The B1G has a force to be reckoned with. With the players he has coming in and coming back, IU should start the year in the top 5 and maybe even on top of the polls.
That being said, IU shot 58% in the first half and Davis played about five minutes and Kentucky still lead by 3. They went 35-37 from the line. How good is that?
UNC-Kansas comments tomorrow.
Stat of the day: in 2002, 2 teams won tournament games scoring less than 66 points. This year, 23 teams have. Where have you gone offense?
Picks sure to be wrong-
Florida 59 Louisville 50: At some point, Louisville's mediocre offense has to come back and bite them. Florida has probably been the second most impressive team in the dance thus far. Really cool matchup for it not including Marquette. Would love a Kentucky-Louisville Final Four matchup. The state would of Kentucky would be up for grabs.
Ohio State 74 Syracuse 70: I believe this should be a terrific game. Ohio is far more athletic than Wisconsin and should be able to challenge much more effective inside. If the Orange get solid play from Fair and Southerland they can just as easily win. Really a toss-up and seeing sad Luckeye$ fan is a reason to root for Syracuse
That being said, IU shot 58% in the first half and Davis played about five minutes and Kentucky still lead by 3. They went 35-37 from the line. How good is that?
UNC-Kansas comments tomorrow.
Stat of the day: in 2002, 2 teams won tournament games scoring less than 66 points. This year, 23 teams have. Where have you gone offense?
Picks sure to be wrong-
Florida 59 Louisville 50: At some point, Louisville's mediocre offense has to come back and bite them. Florida has probably been the second most impressive team in the dance thus far. Really cool matchup for it not including Marquette. Would love a Kentucky-Louisville Final Four matchup. The state would of Kentucky would be up for grabs.
Ohio State 74 Syracuse 70: I believe this should be a terrific game. Ohio is far more athletic than Wisconsin and should be able to challenge much more effective inside. If the Orange get solid play from Fair and Southerland they can just as easily win. Really a toss-up and seeing sad Luckeye$ fan is a reason to root for Syracuse
Friday, March 23, 2012
Friday Sweet 16 Picks
No time for a breakdown...we're getting right into the scores.
Kentucky 74, Indiana 64
Kansas 70, North Carolina State 66
Baylor 68, Xavier 62
North Carolina 71, Ohio 57
If I had one wish the rest of the tournament it would be an Ohio upset. I'll even take a Kentucky-Ohio State final if that's what it will take!
Kentucky 74, Indiana 64
Kansas 70, North Carolina State 66
Baylor 68, Xavier 62
North Carolina 71, Ohio 57
If I had one wish the rest of the tournament it would be an Ohio upset. I'll even take a Kentucky-Ohio State final if that's what it will take!
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Good night, donkey
A resounding 1-3, though Wisky was really a pick'em.
Though I lose my national champ in MSU, I doubt anyone had Louisville-Florida as a regional final. How'd we miss that story?
Anyway, as disappointing as the Marquette loss is, we'd be remiss amongst us Marquette fans for not appreciating what DJO and Jae Crowder meant to this program. Two straight sweet 16's doesn't seem like much but can you remember the last time that happened? You were 1 or 2 for you regular readers. Don't dismiss the momentum they have. They have Illinois best prep player coming in and two top guys in 2013. Davante and Jamil take over in 2012-13.
As for Badger nation, there was lots of uproar over Bo not taking a TO at the end of regulation. For as much grief as I give him and his vanilla program, who do you want with the ball there? Bergrren or Taylor? If Bergrren is in and takes the shot over Taylor, you're just as pissed. Still a fantastic season and you get Okey 2.0 next year.
Definite white out shots in 2013 dance
Though I lose my national champ in MSU, I doubt anyone had Louisville-Florida as a regional final. How'd we miss that story?
Anyway, as disappointing as the Marquette loss is, we'd be remiss amongst us Marquette fans for not appreciating what DJO and Jae Crowder meant to this program. Two straight sweet 16's doesn't seem like much but can you remember the last time that happened? You were 1 or 2 for you regular readers. Don't dismiss the momentum they have. They have Illinois best prep player coming in and two top guys in 2013. Davante and Jamil take over in 2012-13.
As for Badger nation, there was lots of uproar over Bo not taking a TO at the end of regulation. For as much grief as I give him and his vanilla program, who do you want with the ball there? Bergrren or Taylor? If Bergrren is in and takes the shot over Taylor, you're just as pissed. Still a fantastic season and you get Okey 2.0 next year.
Definite white out shots in 2013 dance
THE SOUTH: Looking back, looking forward
Ah, the rgeion with the most potential intrigue. As a student of the history of the game, I saw all of these compelling potential matchups. Then UConn lost. Okay. Then UNLV lost. Then the wheels went right off the bus crashing through the living room window and Duke got their Weber State as Lehigh forever etched themselves into the lore of the tournament and the hearts of America. After that, form played out.
One note on this bracket, VCU beat Wichita State in the first round. The only complaint I'll make about the committe and seeding is playing mid-majors off of one another in the 5-12 line. We know why it's done. Obviously, this season made it more difficult as the middle part of the field was full of them but it still isn't fun watching a 12 VCU beat a 5 Wichita State.
KENTUCKY, 2nd KenPom (2nd Adj O; 8th Adj D) vs. INDIANA, 10th KenPom (4th Adj O, 44th Adj D)
Kentucky sort of struggled with Iowa State but I compared it to a cat playing with a mouse, eventually killing it after teasing it for a while. At halftime, Coach Cal was asked about not making 3's and his reply was classic. "Why shoot 3's when you can dunk or get layups?" Good point. They get 22.5% of their scoring from beyond the arc, which is 295th in the nation yet have an effective fg % of 53.8 (18th). They don't turn it over as one might suspect with a young lineup, 20th in turnover % and they get second chance points with a 37.9 % offensive rebounding % (19th). For good measure, they nailed their 3's and ran away from the Cyclones.
I bet Iowa has a lot of cyclones.
Defensively, Indiana is okay. They don't force many turnovers and are decent on the glass, with a 30.6 defensive rebounding % (That number on defense is better lower). They don't foul a ton and teams have an effective fg% of 48% (134th).
Kentucky is a defensive force and one of the few defensive teams that are fun to watch because of how they get on you, like five Aaron Craft's. They have the nations best defensive fg % of 41%. Nice to have a human eraser like Davis in the middle. They don't force a ton of turnovers, in fact their defensive turnover % is 293rd in the nation but when you don't make shots against them coupled with not fouling, 9th in FTA/FGA on defense, it doesn't matter. They're about the same as the Hooisers on the defensive glass so that is a push.
Indiana is 7th in effective fg % on offense at 55.1%. They turn it over slightly less than the national average, so that's a push with UK not forcing them. They get some second chance points. Their offensive rebounding % is 35.2 (59th). They get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 45.2 (12th). Can they get UK to foul? They'll need to. Indiana shoots an impressive 76.3% from the line. If they can get some free throws, they usually make them. They shoot 43% from 3 but only get 25% of their points that way which is 227th in the nation.
We see a formula for Indiana here. Though they don't make a lot of 3's, they are good at making them when they take them. Get, say 10 of them and get to the line, they'll have a shot. In December, they got Davis into foul trouble and he only played 23 minutes. They have an idea how to do it, can they repeat it?
Well, let's think about this for a second. IU played a damn near perfect game, got Davis out and won on a buzzer beater at home. In the SEC semi's, Florida made it rain from deep and UK won. It'll be tough. It can be done but I really like the makeup of this Wildcat team. Good game, Kentucky pulls away at the end. UK 76 IU 70
BAYLOR, 16th KenPom (12th Adj ); 35th Adj D) vs. XAVIER, 50th KenPom (63rd Adj O, 55th Adj D)
Before we begin looking at the numbers, I have to say this is the most fascinating game to me, non-Marquette category. I said Baylor was dead to me in February and a win returns them to the Elite 8 for the 2nd time in 3 years. Xavier was looking in not that long ago and here they are in another Sweet 16. Two real good teams. Have they figured it out? I don't think so based on matchups to get to this point but still respectable seasons, win or lose.
Baylor on offense has an offensove rebounding % of 38% (16th). So they'll have some second chance opportunities. They turn it over and get to the line at about the national average. That FT stat says a lot to me. A team with that kind of athleticism and length needs to get to the line more. They have an effective FG % of 52.6% (45th). They shoot the 3 at 38% (27th and are 75% at the line (25th).
Xavier does a very good job at not allowing second chance points. Teams only get 30%, so that'll be a number to watch. They hold teams to an effective fg% of 45.3 (45th). They don't force many turnovers, below the national average and 266th overall, so Baylor might skate on average ball handling. Xavier is average at not fouling so that should be a wash.
Defensively, Baylor as good as they are at getting offensive rebounds, they're slightly below average at garbbing defensive boards. They don't force many turnovers, just above the national average and they don't foul too much. They hold teams to a defensive fg % of 47.4 % (102nd).
On offense, Xavier is weak on the offensive glass. They're the opposite of Baylor. They do get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 41.2 (53rd). They have an effective fg % of 49.8 (142nd). They do protect the ball pretty well. Their turnover % is 18.5 % (67th). They are weak at the line shooting 69.1%. Considering how they get to the line, if that number was closer to Baylor's, that could be a difference maker.
Baylor is about a 6 point favorite by the numbers but I'll take a flier on Xavier here since I wrote Baylor off in February. Xavier 73 Baylor 70
One note on this bracket, VCU beat Wichita State in the first round. The only complaint I'll make about the committe and seeding is playing mid-majors off of one another in the 5-12 line. We know why it's done. Obviously, this season made it more difficult as the middle part of the field was full of them but it still isn't fun watching a 12 VCU beat a 5 Wichita State.
KENTUCKY, 2nd KenPom (2nd Adj O; 8th Adj D) vs. INDIANA, 10th KenPom (4th Adj O, 44th Adj D)
Kentucky sort of struggled with Iowa State but I compared it to a cat playing with a mouse, eventually killing it after teasing it for a while. At halftime, Coach Cal was asked about not making 3's and his reply was classic. "Why shoot 3's when you can dunk or get layups?" Good point. They get 22.5% of their scoring from beyond the arc, which is 295th in the nation yet have an effective fg % of 53.8 (18th). They don't turn it over as one might suspect with a young lineup, 20th in turnover % and they get second chance points with a 37.9 % offensive rebounding % (19th). For good measure, they nailed their 3's and ran away from the Cyclones.
I bet Iowa has a lot of cyclones.
Defensively, Indiana is okay. They don't force many turnovers and are decent on the glass, with a 30.6 defensive rebounding % (That number on defense is better lower). They don't foul a ton and teams have an effective fg% of 48% (134th).
Kentucky is a defensive force and one of the few defensive teams that are fun to watch because of how they get on you, like five Aaron Craft's. They have the nations best defensive fg % of 41%. Nice to have a human eraser like Davis in the middle. They don't force a ton of turnovers, in fact their defensive turnover % is 293rd in the nation but when you don't make shots against them coupled with not fouling, 9th in FTA/FGA on defense, it doesn't matter. They're about the same as the Hooisers on the defensive glass so that is a push.
Indiana is 7th in effective fg % on offense at 55.1%. They turn it over slightly less than the national average, so that's a push with UK not forcing them. They get some second chance points. Their offensive rebounding % is 35.2 (59th). They get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 45.2 (12th). Can they get UK to foul? They'll need to. Indiana shoots an impressive 76.3% from the line. If they can get some free throws, they usually make them. They shoot 43% from 3 but only get 25% of their points that way which is 227th in the nation.
We see a formula for Indiana here. Though they don't make a lot of 3's, they are good at making them when they take them. Get, say 10 of them and get to the line, they'll have a shot. In December, they got Davis into foul trouble and he only played 23 minutes. They have an idea how to do it, can they repeat it?
Well, let's think about this for a second. IU played a damn near perfect game, got Davis out and won on a buzzer beater at home. In the SEC semi's, Florida made it rain from deep and UK won. It'll be tough. It can be done but I really like the makeup of this Wildcat team. Good game, Kentucky pulls away at the end. UK 76 IU 70
BAYLOR, 16th KenPom (12th Adj ); 35th Adj D) vs. XAVIER, 50th KenPom (63rd Adj O, 55th Adj D)
Before we begin looking at the numbers, I have to say this is the most fascinating game to me, non-Marquette category. I said Baylor was dead to me in February and a win returns them to the Elite 8 for the 2nd time in 3 years. Xavier was looking in not that long ago and here they are in another Sweet 16. Two real good teams. Have they figured it out? I don't think so based on matchups to get to this point but still respectable seasons, win or lose.
Baylor on offense has an offensove rebounding % of 38% (16th). So they'll have some second chance opportunities. They turn it over and get to the line at about the national average. That FT stat says a lot to me. A team with that kind of athleticism and length needs to get to the line more. They have an effective FG % of 52.6% (45th). They shoot the 3 at 38% (27th and are 75% at the line (25th).
Xavier does a very good job at not allowing second chance points. Teams only get 30%, so that'll be a number to watch. They hold teams to an effective fg% of 45.3 (45th). They don't force many turnovers, below the national average and 266th overall, so Baylor might skate on average ball handling. Xavier is average at not fouling so that should be a wash.
Defensively, Baylor as good as they are at getting offensive rebounds, they're slightly below average at garbbing defensive boards. They don't force many turnovers, just above the national average and they don't foul too much. They hold teams to a defensive fg % of 47.4 % (102nd).
On offense, Xavier is weak on the offensive glass. They're the opposite of Baylor. They do get to the line. Their FTA/FGA is 41.2 (53rd). They have an effective fg % of 49.8 (142nd). They do protect the ball pretty well. Their turnover % is 18.5 % (67th). They are weak at the line shooting 69.1%. Considering how they get to the line, if that number was closer to Baylor's, that could be a difference maker.
Baylor is about a 6 point favorite by the numbers but I'll take a flier on Xavier here since I wrote Baylor off in February. Xavier 73 Baylor 70
My Mourning Period is Over
Looks like it took a full week to get back on this horse. I won’t get into as much detail as Kurly did with his picks..not sure I could even if I tried. Awesome job by the way!
Thursday’s Sweet 16 Picks:
Syracuse vs Wisconsin
I get the feeling this may be one of the ugliest games of the tournament and we’ve already seen a 58-44 South Florida win over Temple. Both teams beg the officials to go back the 45 second shot clock and I’m bored to death. Good thing Bucky wins.
Wisconsin 53, Syracuse 51
Ohio State vs Cincinnati
Not a lot of love between these schools…not a lot of love for these schools from anybody outside their campuses either. Another grind it out ugly game that I have nothing nice to say about.
Ohio State 61, Cincinnati 53
Marquette vs Florida
Ah, here we go. Finally some up and down non-Big Ten basketball. This should be a great game with Jae Crowder going off. Florida hangs in there for about 25 minutes but the Warriors pull away in the end.
Marquette 75, Florida 64
Michigan State vs Louisville
And back to poking out my eyes with a hot poker. Louisville will try to spread it out a bit and get the tempo up a little. It won’t matter as Izzo proves once again why he’s Mr. March. Draymond Green is too much for Cheig inside. Siva can’t save them this time.
Michigan State 63, Louisville 54
Thursday’s Sweet 16 Picks:
Syracuse vs Wisconsin
I get the feeling this may be one of the ugliest games of the tournament and we’ve already seen a 58-44 South Florida win over Temple. Both teams beg the officials to go back the 45 second shot clock and I’m bored to death. Good thing Bucky wins.
Wisconsin 53, Syracuse 51
Ohio State vs Cincinnati
Not a lot of love between these schools…not a lot of love for these schools from anybody outside their campuses either. Another grind it out ugly game that I have nothing nice to say about.
Ohio State 61, Cincinnati 53
Marquette vs Florida
Ah, here we go. Finally some up and down non-Big Ten basketball. This should be a great game with Jae Crowder going off. Florida hangs in there for about 25 minutes but the Warriors pull away in the end.
Marquette 75, Florida 64
Michigan State vs Louisville
And back to poking out my eyes with a hot poker. Louisville will try to spread it out a bit and get the tempo up a little. It won’t matter as Izzo proves once again why he’s Mr. March. Draymond Green is too much for Cheig inside. Siva can’t save them this time.
Michigan State 63, Louisville 54
Wednesday, March 21, 2012
MIDWEST REGION: Looking back, looking forward
The Midwest somewhat played out to form, save NC State dumping San Diego State and Georgetown. NC State was picked by Brian to make it to the Elite 8, so kudos to him on that astute observation. Michigan lost but Brian had them out in round one and they were a trendy pick to lose. USF upset Temple who really disappointed at the end of the year. That folks, was our yearly 12-13 game which was pretty good anyway.
The big story was Kendall Marshall of UNC going down with his broken wrist and the subsequent akward interviews with Huckleberry Roy. We really need a vault of Roy soundbites.
KANSAS, 4th KenPom (16th Adj O; 5th Adj D) vs. NC STATE, 35th KenPom (31st Adj O, 73rd Adj D)
This isn't one of Kansas best offensive teams but still has been good enough. They have some flaws, shooting only 69% from the line and don't hit many 3 pointers, getting 24% of their points that way, 253rd in the land. Their effective fg % is 53.4% (25th) and they're above average on the offensive glass, 34.7% offensive rebounding % (78th). They turn it over just less than the national average and they get to the line pretty well. Their FTA/FGA is 41.1 (56th).
On defense, NC State doesn't force many turnovers. Their defensive turnover % is 18.5 (258th) so Kansas average ball handling shouldn't be a great worry. NC State protects the defensive boards about as well as Kansas gets on them offensively. An active Jeff Withey gives KU an edge. NC State does a pretty good job keeping teams off the line. Their defensive fg % is 47.3 (100th).
Defensively, Kansas is a bit tighter than they are on offense. They have an effective defensive fg% of 43.7 (8th). They're board efficient as well. Their defensive rebounding % is 28.7 (48th). They don't force many turnovers and foul a bit more than the Wolfpack but neither is alarming.
On offense, NC State rebounds 35% of their misses (51st). They do a decent job protecting the ball, with a turnover 5 of 18.7% (78th). They also shoot well enough with an effective fg% of 51% (89th). They're an average team in drawing fouls. The bulkof their scoring comes from the world of 2. 58% of their scoring comes that way. They get roughly 22% of their scoring from the arc which is 307th in the land.
If Withey stays out of foul trouble, NC State will have their hands full but if he doesn't, they can steal this game. NC State likes to go inside, so they'll pose an issue for Withey. I think it's a close game until the final TV timeout but KU with the best player, Thomas Robinson pull away. Kansas 72 NC State 66
I didn't do anything with the other game because I'm not sure what to expect out of Carolina. KenPom makes them an 11 point favorite which is sizeable but without Marshall and a touchy Henson and a completetly rattled Williams and with Ohio having nothing to lose, I'm not sure what to expect. Is DJ Cooper this tourney's Stephen Curry?
Whatever the case, I'll still say NC going away, 77-57 but..
The big story was Kendall Marshall of UNC going down with his broken wrist and the subsequent akward interviews with Huckleberry Roy. We really need a vault of Roy soundbites.
KANSAS, 4th KenPom (16th Adj O; 5th Adj D) vs. NC STATE, 35th KenPom (31st Adj O, 73rd Adj D)
This isn't one of Kansas best offensive teams but still has been good enough. They have some flaws, shooting only 69% from the line and don't hit many 3 pointers, getting 24% of their points that way, 253rd in the land. Their effective fg % is 53.4% (25th) and they're above average on the offensive glass, 34.7% offensive rebounding % (78th). They turn it over just less than the national average and they get to the line pretty well. Their FTA/FGA is 41.1 (56th).
On defense, NC State doesn't force many turnovers. Their defensive turnover % is 18.5 (258th) so Kansas average ball handling shouldn't be a great worry. NC State protects the defensive boards about as well as Kansas gets on them offensively. An active Jeff Withey gives KU an edge. NC State does a pretty good job keeping teams off the line. Their defensive fg % is 47.3 (100th).
Defensively, Kansas is a bit tighter than they are on offense. They have an effective defensive fg% of 43.7 (8th). They're board efficient as well. Their defensive rebounding % is 28.7 (48th). They don't force many turnovers and foul a bit more than the Wolfpack but neither is alarming.
On offense, NC State rebounds 35% of their misses (51st). They do a decent job protecting the ball, with a turnover 5 of 18.7% (78th). They also shoot well enough with an effective fg% of 51% (89th). They're an average team in drawing fouls. The bulkof their scoring comes from the world of 2. 58% of their scoring comes that way. They get roughly 22% of their scoring from the arc which is 307th in the land.
If Withey stays out of foul trouble, NC State will have their hands full but if he doesn't, they can steal this game. NC State likes to go inside, so they'll pose an issue for Withey. I think it's a close game until the final TV timeout but KU with the best player, Thomas Robinson pull away. Kansas 72 NC State 66
I didn't do anything with the other game because I'm not sure what to expect out of Carolina. KenPom makes them an 11 point favorite which is sizeable but without Marshall and a touchy Henson and a completetly rattled Williams and with Ohio having nothing to lose, I'm not sure what to expect. Is DJ Cooper this tourney's Stephen Curry?
Whatever the case, I'll still say NC going away, 77-57 but..
Tuesday, March 20, 2012
WEST REGION: Looking back, looking forward
The West region played out to form except for one colossal upset, Norfolk State over Missouri. And maybe St. Louis over Memphis but it's not fair when Rick Majerus is coaching one team and Josh Pastner the other.
KenPom tweeted last Fridat night the Norfolk State win over Missouri was equivalent to a 16 beating a 1 while Duke losing to Lehigh was closer to a 13 over a 4, both big upsets either way but gives us a better idea of how unlikely it was Missouri losing that game. I didn't feel confident they'd beat Florida but Norfolk will be one for the ages.
We should also note, there was some rancor about Missouri being the last of the 2-seeds. Maybe the committee knew something after all.
FLORIDA, 12th KenPom (3rd, Adj O; 74th, Adj D) vs. MARQUETTE, 17th KenPom (29th, Adj O; 16th Adj D)
We'll try it this way today so maybe it's a little easier to read. Florida is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. They don't turn it over, 16th in turnover % and shoot well, 8th in effective fg%. Florida fires a lot of 3-pointers and make them at a good clip, 38.3% (3rd). They're above average on the offensive glass but do not get to the line, 249th in the nation in FTA/FGA.
Marquette defensively is very poor on the glass, 301st in defensive rebounding % but with Davante Gardner getting more time, that helps. They're 24th in the nation in turnover % on defense, so something will have to give against Florida. Marquette has a good dfensive fg%, 45th and doesn't committ a lot of fouls.
Defensively, Florida is okay. They also don't foul alot and hold teams to a below average effective fg % of 48.1 just below the national clip. They're okay at protecting the dfensive glass, too, 94th in defensive rebounding %. They're below average in turnover % and Marquette is above average in protecting the ball.
Offensively, Marquette gets to the line very effectively which will be challenged by Florida who plays pretty good defense without fouling. Marquette isn't as good as Florida on offense but they are above average and they're actually above the national average in offensive rebounding %.
This is about one point game in Florida's favor on KenPom as we might suspect. They key will be what kind of production Marquette can get from Gardner and whether Florida is lights out from beyond the arc or just good, a big difference because they get 38% of their scoring from beyond the arc. That's 6th most in the land.
My guess is, Marquette handles the perimeter of Florida well enough to keep it close and Jae Crowder is the difference maker. Marquette 74 Florida 72
MICHIGAN STATE, 3rd KenPom (8th, Adj O; 3rd Adj D) vs. LOUISVILLE, 19th KenPom (116th, Adj O; 2nd Adj D)
If you like slugfests with potential for ugliness, this might be the game for you. 3rd Adj D vs. 2nd Adj D? Let's get it on.
What does Louisville do well on offense? Um, get offensive rebounds for second chance points. 43rd in offensive rebounding %. Effective fg %? 227th. Turnover %? 243rd. FT %? 195th. 3pt%? 286th.
That bodes not-so-well since MSU is pretty good on d. Their flaw is not forcing turnovers, 207th in turnover % but since they clean the boards, 18th in offesnive rebound % and defend, 6th in effective fg% it doesn't really matter.
Louisville is 3rd in efficient defensive fg % but are prone to giving up boards, 255th in defensive rebound %, so there will be second chance opportunities so it'll be up to the junkyard dog Spartan interior to take advantage of that. Louisville does force turnovers, 34th in turnover % and Sparty has moments of being sloppy with the ball but Keith Appling has become more dependable at the point but maybe Siva can be as disruptive as he has been in the last two weeks.
Sparty gets a good chunk of its scoring from the interior, 57.6% of its scoring comes from 2-pts. They are also 25th in offensive rebounding %, so we see they should be able to take advantage of Louisville's weak defensive rebounding.
What does Louisville need to win is the question. They need Peyton Siva to play like he has since the beginning of the Big East tourney. They need Giorgi Dieng to stay on the court. They need Draymond Green to get locked in a the locker room by accident.
Michigan State 68 Louisville 54
KenPom tweeted last Fridat night the Norfolk State win over Missouri was equivalent to a 16 beating a 1 while Duke losing to Lehigh was closer to a 13 over a 4, both big upsets either way but gives us a better idea of how unlikely it was Missouri losing that game. I didn't feel confident they'd beat Florida but Norfolk will be one for the ages.
We should also note, there was some rancor about Missouri being the last of the 2-seeds. Maybe the committee knew something after all.
FLORIDA, 12th KenPom (3rd, Adj O; 74th, Adj D) vs. MARQUETTE, 17th KenPom (29th, Adj O; 16th Adj D)
We'll try it this way today so maybe it's a little easier to read. Florida is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. They don't turn it over, 16th in turnover % and shoot well, 8th in effective fg%. Florida fires a lot of 3-pointers and make them at a good clip, 38.3% (3rd). They're above average on the offensive glass but do not get to the line, 249th in the nation in FTA/FGA.
Marquette defensively is very poor on the glass, 301st in defensive rebounding % but with Davante Gardner getting more time, that helps. They're 24th in the nation in turnover % on defense, so something will have to give against Florida. Marquette has a good dfensive fg%, 45th and doesn't committ a lot of fouls.
Defensively, Florida is okay. They also don't foul alot and hold teams to a below average effective fg % of 48.1 just below the national clip. They're okay at protecting the dfensive glass, too, 94th in defensive rebounding %. They're below average in turnover % and Marquette is above average in protecting the ball.
Offensively, Marquette gets to the line very effectively which will be challenged by Florida who plays pretty good defense without fouling. Marquette isn't as good as Florida on offense but they are above average and they're actually above the national average in offensive rebounding %.
This is about one point game in Florida's favor on KenPom as we might suspect. They key will be what kind of production Marquette can get from Gardner and whether Florida is lights out from beyond the arc or just good, a big difference because they get 38% of their scoring from beyond the arc. That's 6th most in the land.
My guess is, Marquette handles the perimeter of Florida well enough to keep it close and Jae Crowder is the difference maker. Marquette 74 Florida 72
MICHIGAN STATE, 3rd KenPom (8th, Adj O; 3rd Adj D) vs. LOUISVILLE, 19th KenPom (116th, Adj O; 2nd Adj D)
If you like slugfests with potential for ugliness, this might be the game for you. 3rd Adj D vs. 2nd Adj D? Let's get it on.
What does Louisville do well on offense? Um, get offensive rebounds for second chance points. 43rd in offensive rebounding %. Effective fg %? 227th. Turnover %? 243rd. FT %? 195th. 3pt%? 286th.
That bodes not-so-well since MSU is pretty good on d. Their flaw is not forcing turnovers, 207th in turnover % but since they clean the boards, 18th in offesnive rebound % and defend, 6th in effective fg% it doesn't really matter.
Louisville is 3rd in efficient defensive fg % but are prone to giving up boards, 255th in defensive rebound %, so there will be second chance opportunities so it'll be up to the junkyard dog Spartan interior to take advantage of that. Louisville does force turnovers, 34th in turnover % and Sparty has moments of being sloppy with the ball but Keith Appling has become more dependable at the point but maybe Siva can be as disruptive as he has been in the last two weeks.
Sparty gets a good chunk of its scoring from the interior, 57.6% of its scoring comes from 2-pts. They are also 25th in offensive rebounding %, so we see they should be able to take advantage of Louisville's weak defensive rebounding.
What does Louisville need to win is the question. They need Peyton Siva to play like he has since the beginning of the Big East tourney. They need Giorgi Dieng to stay on the court. They need Draymond Green to get locked in a the locker room by accident.
Michigan State 68 Louisville 54
Monday, March 19, 2012
EAST REGION: Looking back, looking forward
The East provided zero surprises unless we consider Cincinnati over Florida State a surprise. Other than seeding, that was a game of similar teams that we'd probably call a toss-up, which it was.
If there was any disappointment, it was Vanderbilt who continued its underachieving ways. That's not a knock on Wisconsin who if we looked at the numbers, was the favorite, but a knock on Vanderbilt who has continued first weekend exits despite very good talent. Give Kevin Stallings credit for gathering that talent in a place where getting elite talent is no easy doing but it's been a disaster in the tourney.
WISCONSIN (5th, KenPom, 20th AdjO, 4th AdjD) vs. SYRACUSE (7th, KenPom, 9th AdjO, 15th AdjD)
Wisconsin Four Factors Offense Defense D-1 Avg.
Effective FG% 49.9 (139) 42.0 (2) 49.0
Turnover % 15.1 (2) 18.3 (272) 20.3
Off. Reb % 30.7 (224) 27.7 (29) 32.1
FTA/FGA 30.8 (302) 30.1 (40) 36.4
Other Key Factor: Point Distribution
3pts. 36.3 (18) 20.1 (336) 27.6
2 pts. 45.1 (322) 60.2 (3) 52.0
FT 18.7 (264) 19.7 (210) 20.4
Syracuse Four Factors
Effectice FG % 52.0 (61) 43.9 (11) 49.0
Turnover % 16.0 (6) 25.0 (7) 20.3
Off. Reb % 36.6 (29) 39.2 (341) 32.1
FTA/FGA 32.9 (261) 29.8 (37) 36.4
Other Key Factor: Syracuse Zone
This is an intriguing matchup. I'll guess most pundits lean towards Syracuse and after their season, it's hard not to but their losses were to two teams who went ape from beyond the arc which is what Wisconsin can do. Why I posted their point distribution is, without hitting the three, they can't score any other way. They're not good on the offensive glass, don't get to the line and will have an incredibly difficult time dealing with the length of Syracuse. Syracuse is weaker on the defensive boards than Wisconsin on the offensive glass, so they might find some more buckets around the hoops on put backs.
As we know, Wisconsin doesn't turn it over and Syracuse forces its share of turnovers. The Badgers guards not named Taylor need to be strong with the ball. They had moments against Vandy where that was not the case. Neither team fouls a lot, so that should be a wash. What will be interesting is, Syracuse uses an effective zone defense, something that has vexed Wisconsin in the past and they haven't seen a team with the length of Syracuse. It's not an athleticism difference but a length difference that will matter most.
Since I picked Wisconsin at the beginning of the year for the Final Four in place of Syracuse, I'll stick with them in a close game. As someone said on twitter, it would be very Boeheim-like for one of his most talented teams to be one of his most disappointing.
Wisconsin 57 Syracuse 55
CINCINNATI (25th KenPom, 49th AdjO, 22nd AdjD) vs. OHIO STATE (2nd KenPom, 6th AdjO, 1st Adj D)
Cincinnati Four Factors Offense Defense D-1 AVG.
Effective FG % 47.9 (210) 45.9 (42) 49.0
Turnover % 16.4 (11) 21.8 (90) 20.3
Off. Reb % 35.8 (46) 34.4 (261) 32.1
FTA/FGA 29.7 (318) 25.7 (7) 36.4
Other Key Cincinnati Factor: Shooting 64.4% from the line
Ohio State Four Factors
Effectove FG % 52.5 (50) 46.1 (47) 49.0
Turnover % 17.6 (34) 22.4 (61) 20.3
Off. Reb % 36.0 (38) 24.8 (2) 32.1
FTA/FGA 37.1 (157) 29.1 (30) 36.4
Other Ohio State Factor: 3pt % of 32.8% and Point Distribution
3pt 19.9 (326) 30.4 (71) 27.6
2pt 60.2 (16) 51.7 (193) 52.0
FT 19.9 (205) 18.0 (284) 20.4
This one looks pretty easy to pick on paper and I tend to believe Ohio State wins this game comfortably but there are a few concerns.
Ohio State is the rare college team that is almost exclusively paint oriented. As we can see from their scoring breakdown, they don't make many three's and aren't good at it anyway but with the guys they have, why not take the dunk or layup? For Cincinnati to have a chance to pull the upset, they'll need a herculean effort from Yancy Gates to get Sullinger in foul trouble and hope the bench doesn't provide a spark like it did against Gonzaga. Cincinnati will need to make their 3's like they did against Syracuse in the Big East tournament. Ohio State is somewhat susceptible to giving up 3's.
Cincinnati is weak on the line and don't get there a lot and OSU doesn't foul a lot, so they won't find many opportunities to get cheapies and Aaron Craft looked brilliant defending against Gonzaga. And Ohio State cleans up on the glass defensively, one thing Cicninnati does well offensively. It's an uphill climb
Ohio State 72 Cincinnati 60
If there was any disappointment, it was Vanderbilt who continued its underachieving ways. That's not a knock on Wisconsin who if we looked at the numbers, was the favorite, but a knock on Vanderbilt who has continued first weekend exits despite very good talent. Give Kevin Stallings credit for gathering that talent in a place where getting elite talent is no easy doing but it's been a disaster in the tourney.
WISCONSIN (5th, KenPom, 20th AdjO, 4th AdjD) vs. SYRACUSE (7th, KenPom, 9th AdjO, 15th AdjD)
Wisconsin Four Factors Offense Defense D-1 Avg.
Effective FG% 49.9 (139) 42.0 (2) 49.0
Turnover % 15.1 (2) 18.3 (272) 20.3
Off. Reb % 30.7 (224) 27.7 (29) 32.1
FTA/FGA 30.8 (302) 30.1 (40) 36.4
Other Key Factor: Point Distribution
3pts. 36.3 (18) 20.1 (336) 27.6
2 pts. 45.1 (322) 60.2 (3) 52.0
FT 18.7 (264) 19.7 (210) 20.4
Syracuse Four Factors
Effectice FG % 52.0 (61) 43.9 (11) 49.0
Turnover % 16.0 (6) 25.0 (7) 20.3
Off. Reb % 36.6 (29) 39.2 (341) 32.1
FTA/FGA 32.9 (261) 29.8 (37) 36.4
Other Key Factor: Syracuse Zone
This is an intriguing matchup. I'll guess most pundits lean towards Syracuse and after their season, it's hard not to but their losses were to two teams who went ape from beyond the arc which is what Wisconsin can do. Why I posted their point distribution is, without hitting the three, they can't score any other way. They're not good on the offensive glass, don't get to the line and will have an incredibly difficult time dealing with the length of Syracuse. Syracuse is weaker on the defensive boards than Wisconsin on the offensive glass, so they might find some more buckets around the hoops on put backs.
As we know, Wisconsin doesn't turn it over and Syracuse forces its share of turnovers. The Badgers guards not named Taylor need to be strong with the ball. They had moments against Vandy where that was not the case. Neither team fouls a lot, so that should be a wash. What will be interesting is, Syracuse uses an effective zone defense, something that has vexed Wisconsin in the past and they haven't seen a team with the length of Syracuse. It's not an athleticism difference but a length difference that will matter most.
Since I picked Wisconsin at the beginning of the year for the Final Four in place of Syracuse, I'll stick with them in a close game. As someone said on twitter, it would be very Boeheim-like for one of his most talented teams to be one of his most disappointing.
Wisconsin 57 Syracuse 55
CINCINNATI (25th KenPom, 49th AdjO, 22nd AdjD) vs. OHIO STATE (2nd KenPom, 6th AdjO, 1st Adj D)
Cincinnati Four Factors Offense Defense D-1 AVG.
Effective FG % 47.9 (210) 45.9 (42) 49.0
Turnover % 16.4 (11) 21.8 (90) 20.3
Off. Reb % 35.8 (46) 34.4 (261) 32.1
FTA/FGA 29.7 (318) 25.7 (7) 36.4
Other Key Cincinnati Factor: Shooting 64.4% from the line
Ohio State Four Factors
Effectove FG % 52.5 (50) 46.1 (47) 49.0
Turnover % 17.6 (34) 22.4 (61) 20.3
Off. Reb % 36.0 (38) 24.8 (2) 32.1
FTA/FGA 37.1 (157) 29.1 (30) 36.4
Other Ohio State Factor: 3pt % of 32.8% and Point Distribution
3pt 19.9 (326) 30.4 (71) 27.6
2pt 60.2 (16) 51.7 (193) 52.0
FT 19.9 (205) 18.0 (284) 20.4
This one looks pretty easy to pick on paper and I tend to believe Ohio State wins this game comfortably but there are a few concerns.
Ohio State is the rare college team that is almost exclusively paint oriented. As we can see from their scoring breakdown, they don't make many three's and aren't good at it anyway but with the guys they have, why not take the dunk or layup? For Cincinnati to have a chance to pull the upset, they'll need a herculean effort from Yancy Gates to get Sullinger in foul trouble and hope the bench doesn't provide a spark like it did against Gonzaga. Cincinnati will need to make their 3's like they did against Syracuse in the Big East tournament. Ohio State is somewhat susceptible to giving up 3's.
Cincinnati is weak on the line and don't get there a lot and OSU doesn't foul a lot, so they won't find many opportunities to get cheapies and Aaron Craft looked brilliant defending against Gonzaga. And Ohio State cleans up on the glass defensively, one thing Cicninnati does well offensively. It's an uphill climb
Ohio State 72 Cincinnati 60
Saturday, March 17, 2012
Jae Crowder is a BEAST
Two double-doubles in two tournament games and a beast on the defensive end against a real good Murray State team. Would love to see him meet up with Draymond Green in a game to go the Final Four.
Friday, March 16, 2012
Wednesday, March 14, 2012
BRACKET BONANAZA BREAKDOWN BOFFO BIG
I reserve the upset special column for potential later upsets even if I pick a team to eventually win. Most reasonable people could see Memphis beating MSU.
SOUTH REGION
Regional Final: Kentucky vs. Duke
Upset Special: Every game Duke plays
Toughest Decision: Duke over Lehigh; ISU over UConn; UNLV over Baylor
Storyline: How long until you want to put your fist through the TV when they show Coach K and you ask how could you have recruited such stiffs with 4 titles to your name or just for posterity sakes?
EAST REGION
Regional Final: Ohio State vs. Vanderbilt
Upset Special: Texas over Cincinnati; Vandy over 'Cuse; Bonnies over FSU
Toughest Decision: Picking which game Bucky struggles to score 50 points
Storyline: How long until you want to put your fist through the TV when they tell you how "fundamentally sound" Wisconsin is or you hear the name "Fab Melo"?
MIDWEST REGION:
Regional Final: Kansas over North Carolina
Upset Special: Ohio over Michigan; NC State over SDSU; Purdue over Kansas
Toughest Decision: Believeing Kansas would beat St. Mary's should St. Mary's beat Purdue. Kansas over a mid-major?!?! Shooooooooooooot
Storyline: Kansas-UNC regional final would be epic
WEST REGION:
Regional Final: Michigan State over Marquette
Upset Sepcial: LBSU over New Mexico; Davidson over Louisville; Memphis over MSU; Florida over Mizzou; CSU over Murray State
Tougehst Decision: All over the board on this bracket. I see plenty of room for CHAOS in this region.
Storyline: Will any BYU players be seduced by the hill people of Kentucky?
Title Game: Michigan State over Kansas
SOUTH REGION
Regional Final: Kentucky vs. Duke
Upset Special: Every game Duke plays
Toughest Decision: Duke over Lehigh; ISU over UConn; UNLV over Baylor
Storyline: How long until you want to put your fist through the TV when they show Coach K and you ask how could you have recruited such stiffs with 4 titles to your name or just for posterity sakes?
EAST REGION
Regional Final: Ohio State vs. Vanderbilt
Upset Special: Texas over Cincinnati; Vandy over 'Cuse; Bonnies over FSU
Toughest Decision: Picking which game Bucky struggles to score 50 points
Storyline: How long until you want to put your fist through the TV when they tell you how "fundamentally sound" Wisconsin is or you hear the name "Fab Melo"?
MIDWEST REGION:
Regional Final: Kansas over North Carolina
Upset Special: Ohio over Michigan; NC State over SDSU; Purdue over Kansas
Toughest Decision: Believeing Kansas would beat St. Mary's should St. Mary's beat Purdue. Kansas over a mid-major?!?! Shooooooooooooot
Storyline: Kansas-UNC regional final would be epic
WEST REGION:
Regional Final: Michigan State over Marquette
Upset Sepcial: LBSU over New Mexico; Davidson over Louisville; Memphis over MSU; Florida over Mizzou; CSU over Murray State
Tougehst Decision: All over the board on this bracket. I see plenty of room for CHAOS in this region.
Storyline: Will any BYU players be seduced by the hill people of Kentucky?
Title Game: Michigan State over Kansas
Bracket Predictions
South
Final Four: Duke over Kentucky
Upset Special: New Mexico State over Indiana
Toughest Decision: Iowa State over Connecticut, Baylor over UNLV
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Is Duke really as bad as their number show?
West
Final Four: Marquette over Memphis
Upset Special: Long Beach State over New Mexico and Louisville
Toughest Decision: Marquette over Missouri
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Do I really pick Memphis over Michigan State? Two of the hottest teams out there
East
Final Four: Vanderbilt over Florida State (I picked this before all the talking heads did on Monday)
Upset Special: Vanderbilt over Syracuse, Florida State over Ohio State (weird because I’m still considering the Bonnie’s in round 1)
Toughest Decision: Florida State over Ohio State
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Can Wisconsin get past Montana? Will Stallings choke away another opportunity?
Midwest
Final Four: North Carolina over North Carolina State
Upset Special: Ohio over Michigan, Belmont over Georgetown, NC State to the Elite Eight
Toughest Decision: NC State over Kansas
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Breaking rule 1a: Never pick North Carolina to make the Final Four
Championship Game:
Duke over North Carolina
Final Four: Duke over Kentucky
Upset Special: New Mexico State over Indiana
Toughest Decision: Iowa State over Connecticut, Baylor over UNLV
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Is Duke really as bad as their number show?
West
Final Four: Marquette over Memphis
Upset Special: Long Beach State over New Mexico and Louisville
Toughest Decision: Marquette over Missouri
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Do I really pick Memphis over Michigan State? Two of the hottest teams out there
East
Final Four: Vanderbilt over Florida State (I picked this before all the talking heads did on Monday)
Upset Special: Vanderbilt over Syracuse, Florida State over Ohio State (weird because I’m still considering the Bonnie’s in round 1)
Toughest Decision: Florida State over Ohio State
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Can Wisconsin get past Montana? Will Stallings choke away another opportunity?
Midwest
Final Four: North Carolina over North Carolina State
Upset Special: Ohio over Michigan, Belmont over Georgetown, NC State to the Elite Eight
Toughest Decision: NC State over Kansas
Biggest Storyline (from my perspective): Breaking rule 1a: Never pick North Carolina to make the Final Four
Championship Game:
Duke over North Carolina
Duke
It all rests on Ryan Kelly. If he can't play the Sweet 16 is the limit.
Also, I'm sick of hearing that Duke can't play with the more athletic teams. It's not the more athletic teams that beat them, it's the top defensive teams that can guard out at the 3 point line that beat them. 3 of their losses came against Florida State and Temple? Those are not uber-athletic teams.
I'm going to pick them to win it all anyway :)
Also, I'm sick of hearing that Duke can't play with the more athletic teams. It's not the more athletic teams that beat them, it's the top defensive teams that can guard out at the 3 point line that beat them. 3 of their losses came against Florida State and Temple? Those are not uber-athletic teams.
I'm going to pick them to win it all anyway :)
Tuesday, March 13, 2012
Friendly reminder
Enjoy the two days of play-in games. That's what these are. They are not the first round despite what the NCAA tries to sell you and they'll try and sell you anything and not share with the student athlete.
There are not 60 first round byes.
There are not 60 first round byes.
Monday, March 12, 2012
A little ACC heavy?
They only put 4 teams in the tournament.
Duke's losing to either Xavier or Notre Dame and I have my doubts FSU gets pass the Bonnies. You're right about Carolina, though and I'm sort of feeling a Wolfpack 4 Life run, baby.
Duke's losing to either Xavier or Notre Dame and I have my doubts FSU gets pass the Bonnies. You're right about Carolina, though and I'm sort of feeling a Wolfpack 4 Life run, baby.
Coaching & Realingment
Eamonn Brennan of ESPN reports Butler is exploring the option of joining the A-10 to replace Temple.
With Drexel being jilted and VCU getting only a 12-seed, I wonder if that pushes Shaka Smart closer to taking the Illinois job.
With Drexel being jilted and VCU getting only a 12-seed, I wonder if that pushes Shaka Smart closer to taking the Illinois job.
Sunday, March 11, 2012
Quick Tally
I did a quick check of my final bracket..67 out of 68. That's not bad to begin with. I had Drexel in but Iona got the bid instead. Remember my blog from earlier about a surprise team getting in...yep Iona (I also said maybe Arizona).
As for the Paymon scale, which ranks bracketologists, my unofficially tally is 335. The highest total at the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) last year was 331. I'm very curious to see where I rank. The last two years I had 286 (before the bracket expansion) and 305. It's an upward trend, baby!
Bracket analysis to come later in the week but here's my first glance Elite Eight matchups:
South - Kentucky vs Duke
West - Marquette vs Memphis
East - Vanderbilt vs Florida State
Midwest - North Carolina vs North Carolina State
It's a little ACC heavy but everybody knows I'm an ACC shill.
As for the Paymon scale, which ranks bracketologists, my unofficially tally is 335. The highest total at the Bracket Project (http://bracketproject.blogspot.com/) last year was 331. I'm very curious to see where I rank. The last two years I had 286 (before the bracket expansion) and 305. It's an upward trend, baby!
Bracket analysis to come later in the week but here's my first glance Elite Eight matchups:
South - Kentucky vs Duke
West - Marquette vs Memphis
East - Vanderbilt vs Florida State
Midwest - North Carolina vs North Carolina State
It's a little ACC heavy but everybody knows I'm an ACC shill.
2012 Bracket Storylines & History
What I love about the bracket after it's released, is seeing some potential matchups and the history and storylines that they could create. Here's a few that pique my interest.
SOUTH
With Duke & Kentucky as the 1-2 seeds, a potential Regional Final would conjure up memories of the 1992 & 1998 regional finals, two of the finest games ever played in tourney history.
UNLV-Duke potential matchup in the Sweet 16
Notre Dame-Duke in the real 2nd round. Brey vs K
The awfulness of two mid-majors playing AGAIN in the 5-12. VCU gets Wichita State in what should be a fun game.
UConn-Kentucky possibly in the real round 2.
EAST
A potential Sweet 16 heavyweight big man battle between Fab Melo & Jared Berggren
Freddie Owens is an assisstant at Montana and does have one of the more memorable tournament shots in Wisconsin history.
Okay, the east is pretty blah for storylines
MIDWEST
A potential Regional Final of Huckleberry Roy against Kansas. I like but Kansas has to not lose to a mid-major or Purdue
Michigan is playing the OHIO. This has like .000001% of happening but it's theoretically possible that if Michigan advanced to the regional final they could meet Steve Fisher and SDSU.
To me, Creighton-Alabama is fascinating because one can't guard, the other can't shoot and a Creighton win would put HS teammates Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott against one another in the real second round.
WEST
Mizzou and Marquette could meet in the Sweet 16 which would be the 3rd time since 2003 that they'd have played in the tournament.
KenPom has Memphis 9th and St. Louis 15th. They play as 8-9's and the winner gets Michigan State. Forget UConn-Kentucky, this one would get my attention.
Murray State as a 6 in Louisville has been getting some twitter run as a tough potential 2nd rounder for Marquette. But they have to beat a pretty good Colorado State team first who the computers love a little more than Murray State.
I'll wager a bet that the West or East will be the most popular regions for the 4 & 5's getting run.
And there are four Wildcats in the tournament but none named NITwestern.
SOUTH
With Duke & Kentucky as the 1-2 seeds, a potential Regional Final would conjure up memories of the 1992 & 1998 regional finals, two of the finest games ever played in tourney history.
UNLV-Duke potential matchup in the Sweet 16
Notre Dame-Duke in the real 2nd round. Brey vs K
The awfulness of two mid-majors playing AGAIN in the 5-12. VCU gets Wichita State in what should be a fun game.
UConn-Kentucky possibly in the real round 2.
EAST
A potential Sweet 16 heavyweight big man battle between Fab Melo & Jared Berggren
Freddie Owens is an assisstant at Montana and does have one of the more memorable tournament shots in Wisconsin history.
Okay, the east is pretty blah for storylines
MIDWEST
A potential Regional Final of Huckleberry Roy against Kansas. I like but Kansas has to not lose to a mid-major or Purdue
Michigan is playing the OHIO. This has like .000001% of happening but it's theoretically possible that if Michigan advanced to the regional final they could meet Steve Fisher and SDSU.
To me, Creighton-Alabama is fascinating because one can't guard, the other can't shoot and a Creighton win would put HS teammates Harrison Barnes and Doug McDermott against one another in the real second round.
WEST
Mizzou and Marquette could meet in the Sweet 16 which would be the 3rd time since 2003 that they'd have played in the tournament.
KenPom has Memphis 9th and St. Louis 15th. They play as 8-9's and the winner gets Michigan State. Forget UConn-Kentucky, this one would get my attention.
Murray State as a 6 in Louisville has been getting some twitter run as a tough potential 2nd rounder for Marquette. But they have to beat a pretty good Colorado State team first who the computers love a little more than Murray State.
I'll wager a bet that the West or East will be the most popular regions for the 4 & 5's getting run.
And there are four Wildcats in the tournament but none named NITwestern.
Bracketology - Final
I won’t be able to update again. I have Ohio State as a #1 seed and Michigan State as #2. If Michigan State wins they will flip-flop.
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky vs Vermont(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
North Carolina vs Lamar (Sland)
Ohio State (B1G) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Missouri (Big12) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Michigan State vs Long Island (NEC)
Duke vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Montana (Big Sky)
Marquette vs Davidson (SoCon)
Louisville (Beast) vs New Mexico State (WAC)
Michigan vs Belmont (Asun)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Georgetown vs Ohio (MAC)
Florida State (ACC) vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Colorado (Pac12)
Wisconsin vs St. Bonavanture (A10)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Drexel/South Florida
Vanderbilt (SEC) vs NC State/California
Murray State (OVC) vs Colorado State
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton (MVC) vs VCU (CAA)
Temple vs Southern Miss
Florida vs Texas
Memphis (Cusa) vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
UNLV vs Virginia
Notre Dame vs Xavier
San Diego St vs Harvard (Ivy)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Cincinnati vs St. Louis
Gonzaga vs Connecticut
Alabama vs Iowa State
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Seton Hall
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Next Four Out
Northwestern
Mississippi
Miami
Oral Roberts
Also Considered
Arizona
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky vs Vermont(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
North Carolina vs Lamar (Sland)
Ohio State (B1G) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Missouri (Big12) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Michigan State vs Long Island (NEC)
Duke vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Montana (Big Sky)
Marquette vs Davidson (SoCon)
Louisville (Beast) vs New Mexico State (WAC)
Michigan vs Belmont (Asun)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Georgetown vs Ohio (MAC)
Florida State (ACC) vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Colorado (Pac12)
Wisconsin vs St. Bonavanture (A10)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Drexel/South Florida
Vanderbilt (SEC) vs NC State/California
Murray State (OVC) vs Colorado State
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
Creighton (MVC) vs VCU (CAA)
Temple vs Southern Miss
Florida vs Texas
Memphis (Cusa) vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
UNLV vs Virginia
Notre Dame vs Xavier
San Diego St vs Harvard (Ivy)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Cincinnati vs St. Louis
Gonzaga vs Connecticut
Alabama vs Iowa State
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Seton Hall
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Next Four Out
Northwestern
Mississippi
Miami
Oral Roberts
Also Considered
Arizona
I'll Be Honest
I'm starting to think the Pac-12 is a 1 bid league. California 0-3 against the top 50....Seton Hall 4-7, South Florida 1-10...
Last Spots
St. Bonaventure wins and grabs a bid. That leaves 2 open bids for 3 teams. Counting California, North Carolina State, and Colorado State as locks the last two spots will go to Drexel, South Florida, or Seton Hall.
Team W-L RPI Kpom Sagrn SOS NSOS 1-25 26-50 51-100
South Florida 19-13 47 65 67 29 53 1-5 0-5 5-0
Drexel 27-6 63 41 56 247 225 0-0 1-2 3-1
Seton Hall 20-12 64 47 47 56 125 1-4 3-3 3-2
Team W-L RPI Kpom Sagrn SOS NSOS 1-25 26-50 51-100
South Florida 19-13 47 65 67 29 53 1-5 0-5 5-0
Drexel 27-6 63 41 56 247 225 0-0 1-2 3-1
Seton Hall 20-12 64 47 47 56 125 1-4 3-3 3-2
#1 Seeds
Syracuse, Kentucky, Kansas, North Carolina. All projected going into the weekend as a #1. None won their conference tournament. Strange times...
Pac 12 logic
Because they believe (and so do a lot of others) that the Pac 12 is still an elite conference with elite teams.
I've had people argue with me that the reason why their team has so many losses is because the other Pac 12 teams are all so good. In their minds they play in the hardest conference - hands down. Never let reality get in the way of supporting your team.
Which is why I wanted AZ to lose yesterday.
And by the way - the Pac 12 tournament was just won by a team who has only been dancing twice in the past 42 years.
Just sayin'
I've had people argue with me that the reason why their team has so many losses is because the other Pac 12 teams are all so good. In their minds they play in the hardest conference - hands down. Never let reality get in the way of supporting your team.
Which is why I wanted AZ to lose yesterday.
And by the way - the Pac 12 tournament was just won by a team who has only been dancing twice in the past 42 years.
Just sayin'
Last Second Notes
The winner of the Big Ten game gets a 1 seed, the loser is a 2 seed.
North Carolina is a 1 seed regardless of how poorly they play.
Vandy is a 5 seed. Maybe, just maybe they get a 4 if they beat Kentucky.
Xavier is in, St. Bonaventure knocks out a team if they win. That team is either Drexel or Seton Hall.
The Pac-12 only gets 2 bids. I don't want any complaining about it and I better not see 3 teams come 5pm.
I feel confident about my bracket but if I had to guess at a surprise team getting in it would be Arizona or Iona. My surprise team being left out would be Virginia or California.
North Carolina is a 1 seed regardless of how poorly they play.
Vandy is a 5 seed. Maybe, just maybe they get a 4 if they beat Kentucky.
Xavier is in, St. Bonaventure knocks out a team if they win. That team is either Drexel or Seton Hall.
The Pac-12 only gets 2 bids. I don't want any complaining about it and I better not see 3 teams come 5pm.
I feel confident about my bracket but if I had to guess at a surprise team getting in it would be Arizona or Iona. My surprise team being left out would be Virginia or California.
Second to Last Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs Vermont(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Lamar (Sland)
Ohio State (B1G) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Missouri (Big12) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Michigan State vs Long Island (NEC)
Duke vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Montana (Big Sky)
Marquette vs Davidson (SoCon)
Louisville (Beast) vs Ohio (MAC)
Michigan vs Belmont (Asun)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Georgetown vs New Mexico State (WAC)
Florida State vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Colorado (Pac12)
Wisconsin vs Drexel/Seton Hall
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Texas
Creighton (MVC) vs NC State/California
Murray State (OVC) vs South Florida
Vanderbilt vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
Temple vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Colorado State
Memphis (Cusa) vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
UNLV vs Virginia
Notre Dame vs Xavier (A10)
San Diego St vs Harvard (Ivy)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Cincinnati vs St. Louis
Gonzaga vs Connecticut
Alabama vs Iowa State
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Northwestern
Next Four Out
Mississippi
Tennessee
Miami
Oral Roberts
Also Considered
Arizona
Kentucky (SEC) vs Vermont(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Lamar (Sland)
Ohio State (B1G) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Kansas vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Missouri (Big12) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Michigan State vs Long Island (NEC)
Duke vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Montana (Big Sky)
Marquette vs Davidson (SoCon)
Louisville (Beast) vs Ohio (MAC)
Michigan vs Belmont (Asun)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Georgetown vs New Mexico State (WAC)
Florida State vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Colorado (Pac12)
Wisconsin vs Drexel/Seton Hall
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Texas
Creighton (MVC) vs NC State/California
Murray State (OVC) vs South Florida
Vanderbilt vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
6 seed vs 11 seed
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
Temple vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Colorado State
Memphis (Cusa) vs BYU
7 seed vs 10 seed
UNLV vs Virginia
Notre Dame vs Xavier (A10)
San Diego St vs Harvard (Ivy)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Cincinnati vs St. Louis
Gonzaga vs Connecticut
Alabama vs Iowa State
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Northwestern
Next Four Out
Mississippi
Tennessee
Miami
Oral Roberts
Also Considered
Arizona
Question for Ben
As our resident Pac 12 resident, can you explain to me how Charles Barkley and Greg Anthony believe they deserve 3 teams and how they think those teams will be Sweet 16 teams?
Welcome to the best week of the year!
There will be the annual Vitale hand wringing tonight, worthless bracket advice, cliche spewing heads and fake outrage. Brackets will be scrutinized, gut feelings shared, numbers that shout locks and teams being touted as the one you don't want to face.
By Thursday at 11:30, none of it will matter. The tournament will begin. The single greatest sporting spectacle will be all ours to engourge ourselves in. We'll cheer the underdogs, our teams and by Sunday night we'll be down to the Sweet 16 and already be looking forward to 2013.
I cannot freaking wait much as I did when we counted the days and hours while we sat in Mrs. Wilk's class being force fed some dead Englishman's words when all we really wanted to know was whether UWGB could actually beat Jason Kidd and Cal.
Goddamnit. I love this week!
By Thursday at 11:30, none of it will matter. The tournament will begin. The single greatest sporting spectacle will be all ours to engourge ourselves in. We'll cheer the underdogs, our teams and by Sunday night we'll be down to the Sweet 16 and already be looking forward to 2013.
I cannot freaking wait much as I did when we counted the days and hours while we sat in Mrs. Wilk's class being force fed some dead Englishman's words when all we really wanted to know was whether UWGB could actually beat Jason Kidd and Cal.
Goddamnit. I love this week!
Auto Bids - 3/11
ACC
#1 North Carolina vs #3 Florida State
I think UNC has a 1 seed captured already so this game doesn't mean much. With the lateness of it I don't think the committee will change anything based on it's outcome. UNC wins by 8
Atlantic 10
#3 Xavier vs #4 St. Bonaventure
Drexel and Seton Hall are watching this closely as a Bonnie win could push one of them out. Xavier is playing for seeding. I think they win a close one.
SEC
#1 Kentucky vs #3 Vanderbilt
Kentucky has looked a little soft in the last two games but as my counterpart keeps emailing me that's why they are the favorites. Two lackluster efforts but still wins. Other teams (Duke) lose these games while the Wildcats find ways to win. Kentucky with a huge win today.
Big 10
#1 Ohio State vs #2 Michigan State
Just as we thought, the 1 and 2 meeting for a third time. Ohio State has looked better in the past couple weeks while Michigan State has changed their style since Dawson got hurt. A instant classic today as Ohio State wins at the buzzer
#1 North Carolina vs #3 Florida State
I think UNC has a 1 seed captured already so this game doesn't mean much. With the lateness of it I don't think the committee will change anything based on it's outcome. UNC wins by 8
Atlantic 10
#3 Xavier vs #4 St. Bonaventure
Drexel and Seton Hall are watching this closely as a Bonnie win could push one of them out. Xavier is playing for seeding. I think they win a close one.
SEC
#1 Kentucky vs #3 Vanderbilt
Kentucky has looked a little soft in the last two games but as my counterpart keeps emailing me that's why they are the favorites. Two lackluster efforts but still wins. Other teams (Duke) lose these games while the Wildcats find ways to win. Kentucky with a huge win today.
Big 10
#1 Ohio State vs #2 Michigan State
Just as we thought, the 1 and 2 meeting for a third time. Ohio State has looked better in the past couple weeks while Michigan State has changed their style since Dawson got hurt. A instant classic today as Ohio State wins at the buzzer
Saturday, March 10, 2012
Last Saturday musing
Hat tip to Brett McMurphy for this: We just had a Big 12 team win the Pac-12, a SEC team win the Big 12 and a Big 12 team will win the Big East. Thanks, BCS.
Missouri sure has been fun to follow and Frank Haith's emotion after the game is why we love sports. For all the grief Mizzou got for hiring him, he did a great job letting those guys play like they were recruited to by Mike Anderson instead of pigeonholing them into his system.
Though Kentucky has "scuffled", I am more impressed with them than before. This is a young team that doesn't get rattled but instead responds however they need to. Defensive stops? Big shot? Free throws? Doesn't matter. Hate 'em folks but don't doubt them. Florida played almost flawless today and it wasn't enough.
Ripping the Pac-12 is easy but great job by Tad Boyle in Colorado. Left for dead after losing its best players and getting left out by the committee last year, the Buffs get it done.
Finally, Memphis is the proverbial hot team right now. Granted, they're thrashing Conference USA opponents, but they look pretty damn good. No 2 or 3 seed will want to see them.
Missouri sure has been fun to follow and Frank Haith's emotion after the game is why we love sports. For all the grief Mizzou got for hiring him, he did a great job letting those guys play like they were recruited to by Mike Anderson instead of pigeonholing them into his system.
Though Kentucky has "scuffled", I am more impressed with them than before. This is a young team that doesn't get rattled but instead responds however they need to. Defensive stops? Big shot? Free throws? Doesn't matter. Hate 'em folks but don't doubt them. Florida played almost flawless today and it wasn't enough.
Ripping the Pac-12 is easy but great job by Tad Boyle in Colorado. Left for dead after losing its best players and getting left out by the committee last year, the Buffs get it done.
Finally, Memphis is the proverbial hot team right now. Granted, they're thrashing Conference USA opponents, but they look pretty damn good. No 2 or 3 seed will want to see them.
Bubble Update
Strong showing by Xavier and North Carolina State move them into lock status. The bubble is starting to get smaller. Right now I have these as my last 4 in:
Drexel
Seton Hall
Texas
California
My first four out are:
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Northwestern
Lastly, there have been a lot of articles about each year a surprise team not getting in. Last year it was Virginia Tech, a couple years ago Syracuse missed the dance. I've gone back and looked through some 10/11 seeded profiles and I'm taking a second look at these teams as potential surprises:
Southern Miss
Colorado State
Virginia
Drexel
Seton Hall
Texas
California
My first four out are:
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Northwestern
Lastly, there have been a lot of articles about each year a surprise team not getting in. Last year it was Virginia Tech, a couple years ago Syracuse missed the dance. I've gone back and looked through some 10/11 seeded profiles and I'm taking a second look at these teams as potential surprises:
Southern Miss
Colorado State
Virginia
New March Madness drinking game
Drink everytime the refs go to the monitor. Plowed by end of afternoon session
Early Afternoon
Vermont grabs the America East bid while Memphis cruises to the C-USA bid. Marshall looked awful so I think their chances are nil.
Both North Carolina and Kentucky look rough today. Is it possible all projected #1 seeds lose prior to their conference tournament finals?
Both North Carolina and Kentucky look rough today. Is it possible all projected #1 seeds lose prior to their conference tournament finals?
Later Auto Bids - 3/10
Big 12
#2 Missouri vs #4 Baylor
Should be a great game. Can Baylor rise to the occasion? Can Missouri take Kansas’s number 1 seed with a win? Lots of questions.
Pac 12
#4 Arizona vs #6 Colorado.
Yuck. I mean, this is awful! When does the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, or Missouri Valley overtake the Pac 12 as one of the big 6?
Mountain West
#1 San Diego State vs New Mexico
Another top match up of the day. I think New Mexico grabs the win here and slides up to a 6 seed. San Diego stays in the 7/8 range and give a top seed a potential tough out in round 2.
MAC
#1 Akron vs #3 Ohio
The MAC usually represents well in the tournament. Two years ago Ohio upset Georgetown as a 14 seed. Both Akron and Ohio could be a dangerous 14 again this year.
SWAC
#1 Mississippi Valley vs #2 Texas Southern
Mississippi Valley has only lost 1 game in conference and has played the 23rd ranking non-conference schedule. I’m not saying they can beat a 1 next week but they can win today.
Big East
#7 Louisville vs #4 Cincinnati
First to 53 points win. When did the Big East become the Big 10? I long for the old days of the ACC.
Big West
#1 Long Beach State vs #3 UCSB
Will UCSB upset Long Beach State for a third straight year? I don’t think so. The Beach rolls to a 11 seed.
WAC
#2 New Mexico State vs #5 Louisiana Tech
The 1 seed, Nevada, lost last night and we are left with the 2 and 5. New Mexico State had a questionable at large profile so let’s go with them and see if the can pull the upset as a 13 seed
#2 Missouri vs #4 Baylor
Should be a great game. Can Baylor rise to the occasion? Can Missouri take Kansas’s number 1 seed with a win? Lots of questions.
Pac 12
#4 Arizona vs #6 Colorado.
Yuck. I mean, this is awful! When does the Atlantic 10, Mountain West, or Missouri Valley overtake the Pac 12 as one of the big 6?
Mountain West
#1 San Diego State vs New Mexico
Another top match up of the day. I think New Mexico grabs the win here and slides up to a 6 seed. San Diego stays in the 7/8 range and give a top seed a potential tough out in round 2.
MAC
#1 Akron vs #3 Ohio
The MAC usually represents well in the tournament. Two years ago Ohio upset Georgetown as a 14 seed. Both Akron and Ohio could be a dangerous 14 again this year.
SWAC
#1 Mississippi Valley vs #2 Texas Southern
Mississippi Valley has only lost 1 game in conference and has played the 23rd ranking non-conference schedule. I’m not saying they can beat a 1 next week but they can win today.
Big East
#7 Louisville vs #4 Cincinnati
First to 53 points win. When did the Big East become the Big 10? I long for the old days of the ACC.
Big West
#1 Long Beach State vs #3 UCSB
Will UCSB upset Long Beach State for a third straight year? I don’t think so. The Beach rolls to a 11 seed.
WAC
#2 New Mexico State vs #5 Louisiana Tech
The 1 seed, Nevada, lost last night and we are left with the 2 and 5. New Mexico State had a questionable at large profile so let’s go with them and see if the can pull the upset as a 13 seed
Dumb Things Dumb Coaches Say
“Umm, yeah it was his left hand, which is his dominant hand…even though he’s right handed.”
Who said it?
Who said it?
Early Auto Bids 3/10
America East
#1 Stony Brook vs #2 Vermont
The top 2 seeds square off at 10am to represent the America East conference in the Play In game. The teams split the season series but I’d look for the Catamounts to win the rubber match. BTW, TJ Sorrentine is the interim coach at Brown.
Conference USA
#1 Memphis vs #6 Marshall
As predicted the Thundering Herd has worked their way back on to the bubble. However, they need to win here to get into the bracket. As much as I’d like to see Memphis go down I just don’t see it. They’ve been playing their best ball in the past 4 weeks and I think that continues today.
MEAC
#2 Norfolk State vs #4 Bethune Cookman
The MEAC is the home of Hampton who once upset Iowa State as a 15 seed. The winner of this game could become the 1st 16 seed to win (I doubt it).
Southland
#3 Lamar vs #4 McNeese State
Looks like Pat Knight’s speech fired up Lamar. I think they win and grab the last 16 seed.
#1 Stony Brook vs #2 Vermont
The top 2 seeds square off at 10am to represent the America East conference in the Play In game. The teams split the season series but I’d look for the Catamounts to win the rubber match. BTW, TJ Sorrentine is the interim coach at Brown.
Conference USA
#1 Memphis vs #6 Marshall
As predicted the Thundering Herd has worked their way back on to the bubble. However, they need to win here to get into the bracket. As much as I’d like to see Memphis go down I just don’t see it. They’ve been playing their best ball in the past 4 weeks and I think that continues today.
MEAC
#2 Norfolk State vs #4 Bethune Cookman
The MEAC is the home of Hampton who once upset Iowa State as a 15 seed. The winner of this game could become the 1st 16 seed to win (I doubt it).
Southland
#3 Lamar vs #4 McNeese State
Looks like Pat Knight’s speech fired up Lamar. I think they win and grab the last 16 seed.
Saturday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Lamar (Sland)
Kansas (Big12) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Duke vs Long Island (NEC)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan vs Montana (Big Sky)
Baylor vs Davidson (SoCon)
Marquette vs New Mexico State (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (Asun)
Louisville vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Florida State vs North Carolina State/Seton Hall
Wichita State vs Arizona (Pac12)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Indiana vs Drexel/Xavier
Creighton (MVC) vs California
Notre Dame vs BYU
Florida vs South Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs Texas
Vanderbilt vs VCU (CAA)
Temple vs Colorado State
Murray State (OVC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
7 seed vs 10 seed
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs Harvard (Ivy)
Gonzaga vs West Virginia
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Connecticut
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Iowa State
Cincinnati vs Kansas State
St. Louis (A10) vs Purdue
Alabama vs Virginia
First Four Out
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Marshall
Next Four Out
Tennessee
Northwestern
Mississippi
Oral Roberts
Also Considered
Oregon
Central Florida
Miami
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Lamar (Sland)
Kansas (Big12) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Duke vs Long Island (NEC)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan vs Montana (Big Sky)
Baylor vs Davidson (SoCon)
Marquette vs New Mexico State (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (Asun)
Louisville vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Florida State vs North Carolina State/Seton Hall
Wichita State vs Arizona (Pac12)
5 seed vs 12 seed
Indiana vs Drexel/Xavier
Creighton (MVC) vs California
Notre Dame vs BYU
Florida vs South Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs Texas
Vanderbilt vs VCU (CAA)
Temple vs Colorado State
Murray State (OVC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
7 seed vs 10 seed
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs Harvard (Ivy)
Gonzaga vs West Virginia
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Connecticut
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Iowa State
Cincinnati vs Kansas State
St. Louis (A10) vs Purdue
Alabama vs Virginia
First Four Out
Washington
Mississippi State
Iona
Marshall
Next Four Out
Tennessee
Northwestern
Mississippi
Oral Roberts
Also Considered
Oregon
Central Florida
Miami
Daily Bubble Watch
Wow, lots of action last night after the lights went out. The Pac 12 is a mess. Colorado or Arizona is going to the tournament but what to do with California and Washington? For now we have California staying in but Washington is out…replaced by the auto bid. In other news North Carolina State’s upset win over Virginia gives them the lift they need to leap over Mississippi State. I don’t think they need to win to stay in but they need to avoid getting blown out by the Tar Heels. You don’t want the last thing the committee sees is a thrashing.
Bubble Out:
Washington
Mississippi State
Bubble In:
North Carolina State
Arizona – representing the Pac12 Auto Bid
Also in the WAC the top seed, Nevada, was upset and is replaced by the 2 seed, New Mexico State.
Bubble Out:
Washington
Mississippi State
Bubble In:
North Carolina State
Arizona – representing the Pac12 Auto Bid
Also in the WAC the top seed, Nevada, was upset and is replaced by the 2 seed, New Mexico State.
Friday, March 9, 2012
Afternoon Update
Goodbye St. Joe's. Your future is in the NIT.
North Carolina State with a big win. Is it enough to overtake Seton Hall or Mississippi State though?
North Carolina State with a big win. Is it enough to overtake Seton Hall or Mississippi State though?
Afternoon Bubble Games
North Carolina State vs Virginia
I’m not sure a win gets them in but a loss definitely puts them in the NIT
St. Joseph’s vs St. Bonaventure
Not in, not close, but not out of it yet
Marshall vs Southern Miss
We’re taking another look at Marshall as their computer numbers aren’t that bad. A win today is a top 25 RPI win. That’s huge.
I’m not sure a win gets them in but a loss definitely puts them in the NIT
St. Joseph’s vs St. Bonaventure
Not in, not close, but not out of it yet
Marshall vs Southern Miss
We’re taking another look at Marshall as their computer numbers aren’t that bad. A win today is a top 25 RPI win. That’s huge.
It's A Giant Bubble
Teams Currently In But Not Locks:
Mississippi State – my bet for a team to most likely be snubbed
Seton Hall – fizzled out late
Drexel – regular season CAA title may be enough
Washington – regular season Pac12 title may be enough
Xavier – an enigma
South Florida – top 50 RPI may be enough
BYU – nothing great, nothing bad either
Teams Currently Out With Games Left:
Miami
North Carolina State
Arizona
Tennessee
St. Joseph’s
Dayton
Marshall
Mississippi
Central Florida
Teams Currently Out With No Games Left:
Northwestern
Iona
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Mississippi State – my bet for a team to most likely be snubbed
Seton Hall – fizzled out late
Drexel – regular season CAA title may be enough
Washington – regular season Pac12 title may be enough
Xavier – an enigma
South Florida – top 50 RPI may be enough
BYU – nothing great, nothing bad either
Teams Currently Out With Games Left:
Miami
North Carolina State
Arizona
Tennessee
St. Joseph’s
Dayton
Marshall
Mississippi
Central Florida
Teams Currently Out With No Games Left:
Northwestern
Iona
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Friday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs Lamar (Sland)
North Carolina (ACC) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Duke vs Long Island (NEC)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan vs Montana (Big Sky)
Baylor vs Davidson (SoCon)
Marquette vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Louisville vs Mississippi State/Seton Hall
Florida State vs Drexel/Washington
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier
Creighton (MVC) vs Texas
Notre Dame vs BYU
Temple (A10) vs South Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Colorado State
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Gonzaga vs California (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs West Virginia
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Connecticut
San Diego St vs Southern Miss
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs St. Louis
Alabama vs Iowa State
Virginia vs Kansas State
Cincinnati vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
North Carolina State
Arizona
Tennessee
Next Four Out
Iona
Northwestern
St. Joseph's
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Central Florida
Mississippi
Marshall
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs Lamar (Sland)
North Carolina (ACC) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Lehigh (Patriot)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Detroit (Horizon)
Duke vs Long Island (NEC)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Michigan vs Montana (Big Sky)
Baylor vs Davidson (SoCon)
Marquette vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Louisville vs Mississippi State/Seton Hall
Florida State vs Drexel/Washington
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier
Creighton (MVC) vs Texas
Notre Dame vs BYU
Temple (A10) vs South Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Colorado State
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Gonzaga vs California (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs West Virginia
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Connecticut
San Diego St vs Southern Miss
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs St. Louis
Alabama vs Iowa State
Virginia vs Kansas State
Cincinnati vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
North Carolina State
Arizona
Tennessee
Next Four Out
Iona
Northwestern
St. Joseph's
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
Oregon
Central Florida
Mississippi
Marshall
Daily Bubble Watch
First in non-bubble Bracket movement, top seeded UT-Arlington lost to McNeese State so the Southland bid goes to Lamar for now.
In bubble land a lot of iffy teams lost. Northwestern, South Florida, Mississippi State, and Washington all got a big L. On the outside of the bubble only 1 of the last 5 out lost (Oregon). Miami, North Carolina State, Texas, and Arizona all won. As for bracket movement I’m only pulling Northwestern out this morning. Texas will be taking their place and getting close to a lock at this time.
Later this morning I’ll be posting a new bracket. The next 48 hours will be spent crunching numbers and finalizing the bracket. There are a couple teams out there that are in the bracket right now but may not be come Sunday.
In bubble land a lot of iffy teams lost. Northwestern, South Florida, Mississippi State, and Washington all got a big L. On the outside of the bubble only 1 of the last 5 out lost (Oregon). Miami, North Carolina State, Texas, and Arizona all won. As for bracket movement I’m only pulling Northwestern out this morning. Texas will be taking their place and getting close to a lock at this time.
Later this morning I’ll be posting a new bracket. The next 48 hours will be spent crunching numbers and finalizing the bracket. There are a couple teams out there that are in the bracket right now but may not be come Sunday.
Bubble Wimps
By my scientific reckoning, the following teams airballed, and in one case literally, out of the dance. Or maybe not because so many teams aren't worthy:
NITwestern
Oregon
Washington
Mississippi State
Has Texas locked a bid by simply beating a good Iowa State team? Can NC State or MiamI steal one with a win today. And doesn't Tennessee see a huge opportunity?
Yesterday was the Big Thursday Meltdown
NITwestern
Oregon
Washington
Mississippi State
Has Texas locked a bid by simply beating a good Iowa State team? Can NC State or MiamI steal one with a win today. And doesn't Tennessee see a huge opportunity?
Yesterday was the Big Thursday Meltdown
Thursday, March 8, 2012
Washington = Bad, Northwestern = ?
Washington sits at an 11 seed but today's loss to Oregon State is a bad loss. We'll sort things out later with the Pac-12.
In the Big 10 Northwestern is now down 5 with 25 seconds left. This could be a bubble bursting loss. What a great time of year!
In the Big 10 Northwestern is now down 5 with 25 seconds left. This could be a bubble bursting loss. What a great time of year!
Unlocked
Washington, down 13 at half, comes back to take a lead only to end up losing to Oregon State.
Will Washington become the first regular season champion from one of the Big 6 to be left out of the dance? Lots of people seem to think so. It'll be a long few days in Husky nation.
Will Washington become the first regular season champion from one of the Big 6 to be left out of the dance? Lots of people seem to think so. It'll be a long few days in Husky nation.
BRACKET BUSTER: Harvard?
It sort of took me aback yesterday when I saw that Harvard was 38th in KenPom and 36th in RPI and we know the Ivy League can be a tough out in the opening rounds, so why not Harvard as a bracket buster? Their two best wins are against St. Joesph's and on a semi-neutral court against Florida State. They do have one head-scratching loss at a bad Fordham team but Cincinnati lost to Presbyterian, so...
They are a defense first team. They are 29th in AdjO and 4th in the nation in scoring defense. They do not foul, averaging only 15.1 pg, 12th best in the nation. Their defensive FTA/FGA is 29.1%, well below the national average. They keep opponents off the glass. Harvard's defensive rebounding % is 26.5%, 15th best. Opponents effective FG% is 44.9%, 27th best in the land. About the only thing they don't excel in, is forcing turnovers.
Offensively, they're, eh. They make their free throws (75%, 25th) and get to the line fairly effectively, they have a FTA/FGA % of 42.7%, 36th in the nation. They're weak on the offensive glass (31.0 offensive rebounding %, 220th) and turn it over above the national average. They do have an effective fg% of 52.5. Overall, Harvard's AdjO is 70th but they are 227th in scoring.
They are lead by SR. F Keith Wright who scores 10.7 ppg, shooting 59.1%. He also adds 8.1 rpg. JR. F, Kyle Casey adds 11 and 5.5 pg, shooting at 51.9%.
Harvard doesn't strike me as dynamic enough to do more than win a game but that doesn't mean they can't upset someone in the 1st round. I'd think a young, inexperienced team would be ripe for the picking or one that doesn't value the ball.
They are a defense first team. They are 29th in AdjO and 4th in the nation in scoring defense. They do not foul, averaging only 15.1 pg, 12th best in the nation. Their defensive FTA/FGA is 29.1%, well below the national average. They keep opponents off the glass. Harvard's defensive rebounding % is 26.5%, 15th best. Opponents effective FG% is 44.9%, 27th best in the land. About the only thing they don't excel in, is forcing turnovers.
Offensively, they're, eh. They make their free throws (75%, 25th) and get to the line fairly effectively, they have a FTA/FGA % of 42.7%, 36th in the nation. They're weak on the offensive glass (31.0 offensive rebounding %, 220th) and turn it over above the national average. They do have an effective fg% of 52.5. Overall, Harvard's AdjO is 70th but they are 227th in scoring.
They are lead by SR. F Keith Wright who scores 10.7 ppg, shooting 59.1%. He also adds 8.1 rpg. JR. F, Kyle Casey adds 11 and 5.5 pg, shooting at 51.9%.
Harvard doesn't strike me as dynamic enough to do more than win a game but that doesn't mean they can't upset someone in the 1st round. I'd think a young, inexperienced team would be ripe for the picking or one that doesn't value the ball.
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/8
Big West:
Favorite – Long Beach State – Only 1 loss in conference The Beach has a resume that would get at large consideration. Best to not leave it to the committee
Potential Upset – UCSB and CS-Fullerton – both teams score a ton and Fullerton beat Long Beach last week. UCSB has played the spoiler the last two years
ACC:
Favorite – North Carolina – it hurts to type this but UNC is clearly the third best team in the land
Potential Upset – Duke – the Rubber match tips at 2:30 on Sunday. Don’t miss it
SEC:
Favorite – Kentucky – they might not break a sweat winning this.
Potential Upset – Vanderbilt – lots of talent but Kevin Stallings’ team always underachieves.
Big 10:
Favorite – Ohio State – barely over Michigan State. Dawson’s ACL injury sets the Spartans back.
Potential Upset – Michigan State – would it even be considered an upset if Michigan State won? No? Okay, let’s go with Iowa then.
Favorite – Long Beach State – Only 1 loss in conference The Beach has a resume that would get at large consideration. Best to not leave it to the committee
Potential Upset – UCSB and CS-Fullerton – both teams score a ton and Fullerton beat Long Beach last week. UCSB has played the spoiler the last two years
ACC:
Favorite – North Carolina – it hurts to type this but UNC is clearly the third best team in the land
Potential Upset – Duke – the Rubber match tips at 2:30 on Sunday. Don’t miss it
SEC:
Favorite – Kentucky – they might not break a sweat winning this.
Potential Upset – Vanderbilt – lots of talent but Kevin Stallings’ team always underachieves.
Big 10:
Favorite – Ohio State – barely over Michigan State. Dawson’s ACL injury sets the Spartans back.
Potential Upset – Michigan State – would it even be considered an upset if Michigan State won? No? Okay, let’s go with Iowa then.
Today's Bubble Games
Currently In and could lose and stay In:
Mississippi State vs Georgia
Washington vs Oregon State
Southern Miss vs East Carolina
California vs Stanford
Currently In and need a Win to Stay In:
Northwestern vs Minnesota
South Florida vs Notre Dame – USF could still stay in with a competitive loss
Colorado State vs TCU – The Rams computer numbers might keep them in as well
Currently Out and need a Win to stay in the Conversation:
Texas vs Iowa State
North Carolina State vs Boston College
Arizona vs UCLA
Oregon vs Colorado
Mississippi State vs Georgia
Washington vs Oregon State
Southern Miss vs East Carolina
California vs Stanford
Currently In and need a Win to Stay In:
Northwestern vs Minnesota
South Florida vs Notre Dame – USF could still stay in with a competitive loss
Colorado State vs TCU – The Rams computer numbers might keep them in as well
Currently Out and need a Win to stay in the Conversation:
Texas vs Iowa State
North Carolina State vs Boston College
Arizona vs UCLA
Oregon vs Colorado
Thursday Morning Brackology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs Lehigh (Patriot)
North Carolina (ACC) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Long Island (NEC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Duke vs Detroit (Horizon)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
Louisville vs Drexel
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier/BYU
Creighton (MVC) vs South Florida
Notre Dame vs Mississippi State
Temple (A10) vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Gonzaga vs Washington (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Connecticut
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Norfolk(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs Lehigh (Patriot)
North Carolina (ACC) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Long Island (NEC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Duke vs Detroit (Horizon)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
Louisville vs Drexel
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier/BYU
Creighton (MVC) vs South Florida
Notre Dame vs Mississippi State
Temple (A10) vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Gonzaga vs Washington (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Connecticut
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Bracket Update
In auto-bid land both Long Island (NEC) and Montana (Big Sky) secure their ticket as expected. In Patriot action LeHigh knocks off top seeded Bucknell to grab a 15/16 seed. Congrats.
As for the bubble, Seton Hall losses to Louisville and now must sweat it out for the weekend. As of this morning Texas, North Carolina State, Oregon, and Miami are chomping at the bit to take the Pirates bid. All 4 play games today so I’m going to leave Seton Hall in for now. Each of these 4 teams needs to win today to still be considered. Texas has the best matchup against Iowa State but if I had to bet on any of these teams to jump into the bracket after all is said and done I would go with Oregon. It should be an interesting day!
As for the bubble, Seton Hall losses to Louisville and now must sweat it out for the weekend. As of this morning Texas, North Carolina State, Oregon, and Miami are chomping at the bit to take the Pirates bid. All 4 play games today so I’m going to leave Seton Hall in for now. Each of these 4 teams needs to win today to still be considered. Texas has the best matchup against Iowa State but if I had to bet on any of these teams to jump into the bracket after all is said and done I would go with Oregon. It should be an interesting day!
Wednesday, March 7, 2012
Mid Majors & Others By the Numbers as of 3-7-12
Here's a quick look at mid-majors & others by the numbers from KenPom & RPI. I took only those in the top 40 of one or the other. I did these schools since I suspect they'll be chic "cinderella's", though the reality is, they're better than some of the teams they'll probably be seeded behind. A few of these schools may be over valued as well by the committee.
TOP 40 BOTH KenPom & RPI
- Wichita State (8 KP; 15 RPI)
- Memphis (11 KP; 18 RPI)
- St . Louis (12 KP; 30 RPI)
- New Mexico (14 KP; 33 RPI)
- Gonzaga (31 KP; 24 RPI)
- Temple (33 KP; 13 RPI)
- Creighton (35 KP; 20 RPI)
- Harvard (38KP; 36 RPI)
TOP 40 KP ONLY
- Belmont (22 KP; 61 RPI)
TOP 40 RPI ONLY
- Murray State (19 RPI; 45 KP)
- Colorado State (22 RPI; 79 KP)
- St. Mary's (25 RPI; 41 KP)
- San Diego State (26 RPI; 51 KP)
- Long Beach State (35 RPI; 42 KP)
- VCU ( 38 RPI; 47 KP)
Memphis will be a team to watch based on seeding. As a 8 or 9, I'd think they'd be an interesting potential 2nd round matchup for a one seed. The one thing that strikes me is, Wichita State is highly regarded by both and the somewhat stark difference between the two in regards to Murray State & Belmont.
These numbers are all pretty fluid over the next 5 days but it gives us a better idea which mid-majors we should look at when picking upsets in our brackets.
TOP 40 BOTH KenPom & RPI
- Wichita State (8 KP; 15 RPI)
- Memphis (11 KP; 18 RPI)
- St . Louis (12 KP; 30 RPI)
- New Mexico (14 KP; 33 RPI)
- Gonzaga (31 KP; 24 RPI)
- Temple (33 KP; 13 RPI)
- Creighton (35 KP; 20 RPI)
- Harvard (38KP; 36 RPI)
TOP 40 KP ONLY
- Belmont (22 KP; 61 RPI)
TOP 40 RPI ONLY
- Murray State (19 RPI; 45 KP)
- Colorado State (22 RPI; 79 KP)
- St. Mary's (25 RPI; 41 KP)
- San Diego State (26 RPI; 51 KP)
- Long Beach State (35 RPI; 42 KP)
- VCU ( 38 RPI; 47 KP)
Memphis will be a team to watch based on seeding. As a 8 or 9, I'd think they'd be an interesting potential 2nd round matchup for a one seed. The one thing that strikes me is, Wichita State is highly regarded by both and the somewhat stark difference between the two in regards to Murray State & Belmont.
These numbers are all pretty fluid over the next 5 days but it gives us a better idea which mid-majors we should look at when picking upsets in our brackets.
Auto Bids - 3/7
Northeast:
#1 Long Island vs #3 Robert Morris
I had Wagner pegged here but Bob Morris upset them in the Semi-Finals. The Blackbirds looked like a top team in the NEC all year long. No reason to believe they lose here either
Patriot:
#1 Bucknell vs #2 LeHigh
How can you not cheer for Bucknell? BUCKNELL!!! BUCKNELL!! Actually, the Bison have stumbled lately and this game should go down to the final seconds. Bucknell on a last second put back for a 15 seed.
Big Sky:
#1 Montana vs #2 Weber State
Weber State struggled last night but ended up getting by Portland State. They’ll be looking for revenge from Montana after last week’s loss. Weber gets by the Grizzlies tonight and Damian Lillard gets to do his Harold “The Show” Archenaeux impression next week against a 2 seed.
#1 Long Island vs #3 Robert Morris
I had Wagner pegged here but Bob Morris upset them in the Semi-Finals. The Blackbirds looked like a top team in the NEC all year long. No reason to believe they lose here either
Patriot:
#1 Bucknell vs #2 LeHigh
How can you not cheer for Bucknell? BUCKNELL!!! BUCKNELL!! Actually, the Bison have stumbled lately and this game should go down to the final seconds. Bucknell on a last second put back for a 15 seed.
Big Sky:
#1 Montana vs #2 Weber State
Weber State struggled last night but ended up getting by Portland State. They’ll be looking for revenge from Montana after last week’s loss. Weber gets by the Grizzlies tonight and Damian Lillard gets to do his Harold “The Show” Archenaeux impression next week against a 2 seed.
Today's Bubble Games
Connecticut-West Virginia
The winner I believe moves to lock status (especially if it’s UConn). The loser will sweat out the next couple of days.
Seton Hall- Louisville
The Pirates need a win here bad. A loss, especially a blowout, should doom them to the NIT
Villanova-South Florida
1-9 versus the top 50 RPI has South Florida in a precarious position. A win isn’t enough to lock them in but a loss probably moves them out.
The winner I believe moves to lock status (especially if it’s UConn). The loser will sweat out the next couple of days.
Seton Hall- Louisville
The Pirates need a win here bad. A loss, especially a blowout, should doom them to the NIT
Villanova-South Florida
1-9 versus the top 50 RPI has South Florida in a precarious position. A win isn’t enough to lock them in but a loss probably moves them out.
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/7
Conference USA:
Favorite – Memphis – most people have failed to notice the tear Memphis has been on lately. A top 25 RPI, the Tigers should roll to the final.
Potential Upset – Marshall – projected as a challenger to the conference title the Thundering Herd has played below expectations all year. It’s make or break time.
Southland:
Favorite – UT-Arlington – a top 100 RPI from the Southland. Not bad…still a 16 seed though.
Potential Upset – Lamar – Will Coach Knight’s fiery speech disrespecting his Senior’s motivate them or discourage them?
Big 12:
Favorite – Kansas - A #1 seed all but locked up they just need to make the final to lock that in.
Potential Upset – Iowa State – the easy pick here is Missouri but I’m not ready to cross The Mayor off just yet.
Pac 12:
Favorite – Washington or California – neither have done anything all year and they both backed into the conference tournament with garbage losses.
Potential Upset – Oregon – the only team in the conference to play like they want to make the NCAA’s. Devoe Joseph has been a huge positive in turning this team into a at large consideration
SWAC:
Favorite – Mississippi Valley State – only 1 loss in conference after only 1 win out of conference.
Potential Upset – Alabama State – honestly, I don’t know but any team from this conference is a 16 seed.
WAC:
Favorite – Nevada –another team with only 1 conference loss this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Wolfpack. Good thing nobody told them. Good to see Duke transfer Olek Czyz succeed back in his home state.
Potential Upset – Idaho – 9-5 conference record has been under the radar. Everybody is talking New Mexico State as the sleeper here but I give the Vandals the slight edge.
Favorite – Memphis – most people have failed to notice the tear Memphis has been on lately. A top 25 RPI, the Tigers should roll to the final.
Potential Upset – Marshall – projected as a challenger to the conference title the Thundering Herd has played below expectations all year. It’s make or break time.
Southland:
Favorite – UT-Arlington – a top 100 RPI from the Southland. Not bad…still a 16 seed though.
Potential Upset – Lamar – Will Coach Knight’s fiery speech disrespecting his Senior’s motivate them or discourage them?
Big 12:
Favorite – Kansas - A #1 seed all but locked up they just need to make the final to lock that in.
Potential Upset – Iowa State – the easy pick here is Missouri but I’m not ready to cross The Mayor off just yet.
Pac 12:
Favorite – Washington or California – neither have done anything all year and they both backed into the conference tournament with garbage losses.
Potential Upset – Oregon – the only team in the conference to play like they want to make the NCAA’s. Devoe Joseph has been a huge positive in turning this team into a at large consideration
SWAC:
Favorite – Mississippi Valley State – only 1 loss in conference after only 1 win out of conference.
Potential Upset – Alabama State – honestly, I don’t know but any team from this conference is a 16 seed.
WAC:
Favorite – Nevada –another team with only 1 conference loss this was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Wolfpack. Good thing nobody told them. Good to see Duke transfer Olek Czyz succeed back in his home state.
Potential Upset – Idaho – 9-5 conference record has been under the radar. Everybody is talking New Mexico State as the sleeper here but I give the Vandals the slight edge.
Wednesday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs Detroit (Horizon)
North Carolina (ACC) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Long Island (NEC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Duke vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
Louisville vs Drexel
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier/BYU
Creighton (MVC) vs South Florida
Notre Dame vs Mississippi State
Temple (A10) vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Gonzaga vs Washington (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Connecticut
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/W.Kentucky (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs Detroit (Horizon)
North Carolina (ACC) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Long Island (NEC)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Duke vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Belmont (Asun)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
Louisville vs Drexel
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier/BYU
Creighton (MVC) vs South Florida
Notre Dame vs Mississippi State
Temple (A10) vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
St. Mary's (WCC) vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Gonzaga vs Washington (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Connecticut
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Daily Bubble Watch
No Bubble movement but congratulations to the following Auto-Bid winners last night:
Ivy - Harvard
Horizon - Detriot
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
Summit South Dakota State
Ivy - Harvard
Horizon - Detriot
Sun Belt - Western Kentucky
Summit South Dakota State
Tuesday, March 6, 2012
BRACKET BUSTER: Belmont, Again
A year ago, Belmont was one of our bracket busters and went out was easily handled for the most part by Wisconsin, playing seemingly scared. Back for more, this team is eerily similar to last year's. KenPom likes them a lot more than the RPI as they have them 23rd and 61st respectively. Belmont doesn't have any signature wins but lost by only 1 at Duke very early in the year, though that game was a matter of Duke letting off the gas more than anything.
In KenPom, they're 9th in AdjO and 82nd in AdjD, so like Davidson, they're an offense first team. Overall, they're 4th overall in scoring. They are 5th in assists per game and 17th in FG% shooting. It matches up with effective FG% as well. Belmont's is 55.7%, 5th best. They protect the ball, 32nd in TO % (17.6 % vs 20.4% national). 34.5% on offensive rebounding %, 83rd best, above the national average. They make 38% of their 3's, 32nd in the land.
Defensively, they're not great but they are good enough (slightly above average) to cause some fits. Overall, their scoring defense is 190th but their effective FG% on defense is 47.8%, 126th overall and they foul teams about the same as the national average, so they don't typically give up extra cheap points. They hold their own on the defensive boards, too, finding themselves smack dab on the national average. FWIW, they are on the positive side on rebound margin.
Belmont is lead by a three headed guard attack. SR. PG, Drew Hanlen hits his 3's at 48% clip. JR. G, Kerron Johnson averages 14.1 pg and shoots 52.6% from the field. JR. G, Ian Clark hits 41% of his three's and completes the troika. Mick Hedgepeth is the man in the middle. He's been a bit up an down his SR season running into occassional foul trouble.
I liked this team a lot last year but they fizzled. I like them again this year and will say something cliched like with the experience of last year, they will give someone a scare and maybe steal a game and be more competetitve.
In KenPom, they're 9th in AdjO and 82nd in AdjD, so like Davidson, they're an offense first team. Overall, they're 4th overall in scoring. They are 5th in assists per game and 17th in FG% shooting. It matches up with effective FG% as well. Belmont's is 55.7%, 5th best. They protect the ball, 32nd in TO % (17.6 % vs 20.4% national). 34.5% on offensive rebounding %, 83rd best, above the national average. They make 38% of their 3's, 32nd in the land.
Defensively, they're not great but they are good enough (slightly above average) to cause some fits. Overall, their scoring defense is 190th but their effective FG% on defense is 47.8%, 126th overall and they foul teams about the same as the national average, so they don't typically give up extra cheap points. They hold their own on the defensive boards, too, finding themselves smack dab on the national average. FWIW, they are on the positive side on rebound margin.
Belmont is lead by a three headed guard attack. SR. PG, Drew Hanlen hits his 3's at 48% clip. JR. G, Kerron Johnson averages 14.1 pg and shoots 52.6% from the field. JR. G, Ian Clark hits 41% of his three's and completes the troika. Mick Hedgepeth is the man in the middle. He's been a bit up an down his SR season running into occassional foul trouble.
I liked this team a lot last year but they fizzled. I like them again this year and will say something cliched like with the experience of last year, they will give someone a scare and maybe steal a game and be more competetitve.
BRACKET BUSTER: Davidson
The champions of the Soutehrn Conference, Davidson looks to recapture the Stephen Curry magic of 2008. They have a RPI of 62 and KenPom has them 66th overall with an AdjO of 36 and AdjD of 124. As Brian mentioned the other day, Davidson won at Kansas back in December. They lost by 13 at Duke and by 4 at Vandy, so they've seen some tough teams.
They're a better offensive team than defensive as we might gather from their KenPom numbers. They're effective FG% on offense is 51.3%, above the national average of 49%. They protect the ball as well. Their TO% is 17.2%, 22nd in the nation and 36th in assist/TO ratio. They get on the offensive glass, too. They're 68th in the nation in offensive rebound %, above the national average of 32.1%. They're 35th in the nation in 3pt's per game (7.9) and are good at the line, 76.9%, 8th best. Overall, they are 17th in scoring getting 78 per game.
Defensively, they don't force many turnovers. Their turnover % on defense is 17.5%, 306th in the nation. Steals? About 5.5 a game, 259th in the nation. They also foul ALOT. They're 307th overall in fouls per game and their FTA/FGA% is 40.9% on defense, 264th worst. They do a good job not giving up second chance points. Their defensive rebounding % is 26.7%, 17th in the land. Overall, they're 180th in scoring defense.
The players to know are JR. F, Jake Cohen who averages 14 & 6 per game and SO. F, De'mon Brooks who averages 16 & 6 per game himself.
Can they steal a game? Absolutely, if they're making their three pointers. Sound cliched, no? But for this team, it's quite true. As we can see, they're not exactly stout on defense and aren't a spectacular offensive team but if they match up against a so-so offensive team, they'll have a chance.
They're a better offensive team than defensive as we might gather from their KenPom numbers. They're effective FG% on offense is 51.3%, above the national average of 49%. They protect the ball as well. Their TO% is 17.2%, 22nd in the nation and 36th in assist/TO ratio. They get on the offensive glass, too. They're 68th in the nation in offensive rebound %, above the national average of 32.1%. They're 35th in the nation in 3pt's per game (7.9) and are good at the line, 76.9%, 8th best. Overall, they are 17th in scoring getting 78 per game.
Defensively, they don't force many turnovers. Their turnover % on defense is 17.5%, 306th in the nation. Steals? About 5.5 a game, 259th in the nation. They also foul ALOT. They're 307th overall in fouls per game and their FTA/FGA% is 40.9% on defense, 264th worst. They do a good job not giving up second chance points. Their defensive rebounding % is 26.7%, 17th in the land. Overall, they're 180th in scoring defense.
The players to know are JR. F, Jake Cohen who averages 14 & 6 per game and SO. F, De'mon Brooks who averages 16 & 6 per game himself.
Can they steal a game? Absolutely, if they're making their three pointers. Sound cliched, no? But for this team, it's quite true. As we can see, they're not exactly stout on defense and aren't a spectacular offensive team but if they match up against a so-so offensive team, they'll have a chance.
Auto Bids - 3/6
Sun Belt:
#5 North Texas vs #7 Western Kentucky
North Texas has one of the top freshmen in the country in Tony Mitchell. Western Kentucky fired it’s coach this year. It’s play in game time for the winner of this conference
Horizon:
#3 Detroit vs #1 Valparaiso
We had Detroit pegged as the Horizon league favorite going into the year and they under-performed. Now they are 1 game away from making the tournament. This should be a hard fought battle with a 15 seed at stake.
Summit:
#4 Western Illinois vs #2 South Dakota State
Western Illinois upset the 1 seed last night and now they get the Jackrabbits. I believe South Dakota wins this game easily and has the chance at a 14 seed come Sunday. They are an offensive powerhouse and could give an over seeded 3 seed some fits. Georgetown, I’m looking at you.
#5 North Texas vs #7 Western Kentucky
North Texas has one of the top freshmen in the country in Tony Mitchell. Western Kentucky fired it’s coach this year. It’s play in game time for the winner of this conference
Horizon:
#3 Detroit vs #1 Valparaiso
We had Detroit pegged as the Horizon league favorite going into the year and they under-performed. Now they are 1 game away from making the tournament. This should be a hard fought battle with a 15 seed at stake.
Summit:
#4 Western Illinois vs #2 South Dakota State
Western Illinois upset the 1 seed last night and now they get the Jackrabbits. I believe South Dakota wins this game easily and has the chance at a 14 seed come Sunday. They are an offensive powerhouse and could give an over seeded 3 seed some fits. Georgetown, I’m looking at you.
Today's Bubble Games
Need to win to stay in:
Connecticut vs DePaul – Uconn might be able to survive with a loss but better not chance it
Seton Hall vs Providence – Seton Hall most definitely cannot get in with a loss
Need to win to stay in the conversation:
St. Joseph’s vs Charlotte – probably can only get in with auto-bid but a trip to the championship might be enough
Dayton vs George Washington – same as St. Joe’s with a little more room for error as they would have beat both Xavier and St. Louis to get to the championship
Connecticut vs DePaul – Uconn might be able to survive with a loss but better not chance it
Seton Hall vs Providence – Seton Hall most definitely cannot get in with a loss
Need to win to stay in the conversation:
St. Joseph’s vs Charlotte – probably can only get in with auto-bid but a trip to the championship might be enough
Dayton vs George Washington – same as St. Joe’s with a little more room for error as they would have beat both Xavier and St. Louis to get to the championship
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/6
MEAC:
Favorite – Savannah State
Potential Upset – Bethune Cookman
Hi! My winner will play…and lose Tuesday or Wednesday night. That is all.
Mountain West:
Favorite – Pick 1 of 3
Potential Upset – Colorado State
Currently the MWC has 4 teams in the bracket but Colorado State will need to win at least 1 to stay in. Two wins for them and they are a lock. UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico are locks already. This tournament is wide open but I’m leaning with UNLV.
Big East:
Favorite – Syracuse
Potential Upset – Marquette
Talk about wide open…there are a ton of possibilities here. Multiple teams need at least 1 win to stay in the bracket. West Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, and Connecticut best not lose right away. I see this tournament coming down to the top 2 seeds however. Let’s go with Marquette in the mild upset over Syracuse Saturday night.
Atlantic 10:
Favorite – Temple
Potential Upset – St. Louis
What started out as a dream season for Xavier has fallen apart. At one point they were a 5 seed and now they are the last team in. The drew a bye but will have to get by Dayton or George Washington to stay in my bracket. The top seeds are Temple and St. Louis, both of whom will be under seeded next week. I look for a lot of upsets in this tournament with St. Louis ultimately getting the auto-bid
Favorite – Savannah State
Potential Upset – Bethune Cookman
Hi! My winner will play…and lose Tuesday or Wednesday night. That is all.
Mountain West:
Favorite – Pick 1 of 3
Potential Upset – Colorado State
Currently the MWC has 4 teams in the bracket but Colorado State will need to win at least 1 to stay in. Two wins for them and they are a lock. UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico are locks already. This tournament is wide open but I’m leaning with UNLV.
Big East:
Favorite – Syracuse
Potential Upset – Marquette
Talk about wide open…there are a ton of possibilities here. Multiple teams need at least 1 win to stay in the bracket. West Virginia, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, and Connecticut best not lose right away. I see this tournament coming down to the top 2 seeds however. Let’s go with Marquette in the mild upset over Syracuse Saturday night.
Atlantic 10:
Favorite – Temple
Potential Upset – St. Louis
What started out as a dream season for Xavier has fallen apart. At one point they were a 5 seed and now they are the last team in. The drew a bye but will have to get by Dayton or George Washington to stay in my bracket. The top seeds are Temple and St. Louis, both of whom will be under seeded next week. I look for a lot of upsets in this tournament with St. Louis ultimately getting the auto-bid
Tuesday Morning Brackology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/N.Texas (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Duke vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (Asun)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
Louisville vs Drexel
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier/BYU
Creighton (MVC) vs South Florida
Notre Dame vs Mississippi State
Temple (A10) vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Gonzaga vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Washington (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Connecticut
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/N.Texas (Sbelt)
Kansas (Big12) vs UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Duke vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs South Dakota State (Summit)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (Asun)
Indiana vs Nevada (WAC)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
Louisville vs Drexel
5 seed vs 12 seed
Wichita State vs Xavier/BYU
Creighton (MVC) vs South Florida
Notre Dame vs Mississippi State
Temple (A10) vs Colorado State
6 seed vs 11 seed
UNLV vs VCU (CAA)
Florida vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Gonzaga vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
St. Mary's (WCC) vs Washington (Pac12)
Murray State (OVC) vs Connecticut
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Southern Miss
San Diego St vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
Oral Roberts
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Daily Bubble Watch
There were no bubble teams moving in and out last night. VCU beat Drexel and for the time being they'll both stay in. VCU actually moves up to an 11 seed while Drexel stays a 13. Gonzaga and St. Mary's both looked solid as well. I'm thinking 6seed for both.
In non-bubble movement the top seeded Summit team, Oral Roberts is upset by Western Illinois and that bid for the moment goes to the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State. That league closes out tonight. In the Sun Belt we are now left with Play in Game action as that bid will go to either the 5 seed (North Texas) or 7 seed (Western Kentucky).
Full bracket will be out later today
In non-bubble movement the top seeded Summit team, Oral Roberts is upset by Western Illinois and that bid for the moment goes to the Jackrabbits of South Dakota State. That league closes out tonight. In the Sun Belt we are now left with Play in Game action as that bid will go to either the 5 seed (North Texas) or 7 seed (Western Kentucky).
Full bracket will be out later today
Monday, March 5, 2012
MAC FODDER
How has the MAC done in past tournament appearances? Glad you asked!
Two years ago, Ohio as a 14 seed shOOted Georgetown right out of the tournament.
In 2002, as a 10 seed, Kent State made it to an Elite Eight knocking off the 7 seed Oklahoma State, the 2 seed Crimson Tide of Alabama and the 3 seeded Pitt Panthers. They finally succumbed to Indiana in the Regional Final.
3 MAC teams made Sweet-16 runs in the 1990s. In 1999, Miami (OH) and Wally Sczerbiak ousted 7 seed Washington and then the Andre Miller led Utah Utes. In 1991, Eastern Michigan upset Mississippi State as a 12 seed and then beat 13 seed Penn State to make the Sweet 16. Ball State pulled off the same feat in 1990 with Rick Majerus at the helm. They knocked off 5 seed Oregon State and then 4 seed Louisville by a combined 3 points. They lost in the Sweet 16 to eventual champ UNLV by only 2 points. This was the closest game UNLV would play.
Two years ago, Ohio as a 14 seed shOOted Georgetown right out of the tournament.
In 2002, as a 10 seed, Kent State made it to an Elite Eight knocking off the 7 seed Oklahoma State, the 2 seed Crimson Tide of Alabama and the 3 seeded Pitt Panthers. They finally succumbed to Indiana in the Regional Final.
3 MAC teams made Sweet-16 runs in the 1990s. In 1999, Miami (OH) and Wally Sczerbiak ousted 7 seed Washington and then the Andre Miller led Utah Utes. In 1991, Eastern Michigan upset Mississippi State as a 12 seed and then beat 13 seed Penn State to make the Sweet 16. Ball State pulled off the same feat in 1990 with Rick Majerus at the helm. They knocked off 5 seed Oregon State and then 4 seed Louisville by a combined 3 points. They lost in the Sweet 16 to eventual champ UNLV by only 2 points. This was the closest game UNLV would play.
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/5
MAC:
Favorite – Akron Zips – RPI of 62. The Zips are the favorite because they are the 1 seed. Truth be told any of four teams could win this.
Potential Upset – Buffalo beat Akron twice in the past month, Ohio has the most talent, and Kent State was my preseason pick. Let’s go with Buffalo.
Favorite – Akron Zips – RPI of 62. The Zips are the favorite because they are the 1 seed. Truth be told any of four teams could win this.
Potential Upset – Buffalo beat Akron twice in the past month, Ohio has the most talent, and Kent State was my preseason pick. Let’s go with Buffalo.
Auto Bids - 3/5
Colonial:
#1 Drexel vs #2 VCU
The best game of the day sees the Drexel Dragons and VCU Rams hammer it out for an auto-bid. Stop me if you’ve heard me say this before…Both deserve bids!!!
MAAC:
#4 Fairfield vs #2 Loyola –MD
The #1 seeded Iona Gaels got knocked off by Fairfield and now we are left with the 2 and 4 seed. This should be a solid game with the winner locking up a 15 seed. Both teams are solid and might be able to hang with a 2 seed in the tournament for a half or so.
SoCon:
#1 Davidson vs # 3 Western Carolina
I said Davidson would breeze through this and they have. 1 more win and a 13 seed is possible.
WCC:
#1 St. Mary’s vs #2 Gonzaga
Hmmm, I already said VCU-Drexel was the best game of the day. I guess this is 1B then. Both teams are comfortably in the bracket. The winner has a chance at a 5 seed while the loser should end up around 6 or 7.
#1 Drexel vs #2 VCU
The best game of the day sees the Drexel Dragons and VCU Rams hammer it out for an auto-bid. Stop me if you’ve heard me say this before…Both deserve bids!!!
MAAC:
#4 Fairfield vs #2 Loyola –MD
The #1 seeded Iona Gaels got knocked off by Fairfield and now we are left with the 2 and 4 seed. This should be a solid game with the winner locking up a 15 seed. Both teams are solid and might be able to hang with a 2 seed in the tournament for a half or so.
SoCon:
#1 Davidson vs # 3 Western Carolina
I said Davidson would breeze through this and they have. 1 more win and a 13 seed is possible.
WCC:
#1 St. Mary’s vs #2 Gonzaga
Hmmm, I already said VCU-Drexel was the best game of the day. I guess this is 1B then. Both teams are comfortably in the bracket. The winner has a chance at a 5 seed while the loser should end up around 6 or 7.
Monday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Kansas (Big12) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Duke vs Denver (Sbelt)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (Asun)
Indiana vs Drexel (CAA)
Creighton (MVC) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
5 seed vs 12 seed
Louisville vs Xavier/BYU
Notre Dame vs VCU
Wichita State vs South Florida
Temple (A10) vs Mississippi State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Gonzaga vs Colorado State
UNLV vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Florida vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Murray State (OVC) vs Washington (Pac12)
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Connecticut
San Diego St vs Southern Miss
St. Mary's (WCC) vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
South Dakota State
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Kansas (Big12) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
North Carolina (ACC) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
Missouri vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Ohio State (B1G) vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Duke vs Denver (Sbelt)
Michigan State vs Loyola-MD (MAAC)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Marquette vs Montana (Big Sky)
Michigan vs Davidson (SoCon)
Baylor vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wisconsin vs Belmont (Asun)
Indiana vs Drexel (CAA)
Creighton (MVC) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Florida State vs Northwestern/Seton Hall
5 seed vs 12 seed
Louisville vs Xavier/BYU
Notre Dame vs VCU
Wichita State vs South Florida
Temple (A10) vs Mississippi State
6 seed vs 11 seed
Gonzaga vs Colorado State
UNLV vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
Florida vs California
Vanderbilt vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Murray State (OVC) vs Washington (Pac12)
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Connecticut
San Diego St vs Southern Miss
St. Mary's (WCC) vs West Virginia
8 seed vs 9 seed
Memphis (Cusa) vs Cincinnati
Iowa State vs St. Louis
Virginia vs Alabama
Kansas State vs Purdue
First Four Out
Miami
Texas
Oregon
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Arizona
Iona
Tennessee
Dayton
Also Considered
South Dakota State
New Mexico State
Middle Tennessee St
St. Joseph's
Sunday, March 4, 2012
Daily Bubble Watch
Lots of action this weekend as the regular season wrapped up. As of 9pm tonight here is the coming and goings on the weekend.
Bracket Out:
Texas – lost at Kansas on Saturday evening. Still very alive for a bid
Arizona – absolutely terrible loss to ASU today leaves their RPI had 78. Way too high for an at-large bid
Iona – lost in the their conference semi-final. Not enough in the profile for an at-large although the RPI of 42 will at least keep them in the conversation.
Middle Tennessee State – see Iona and replace MAAC with Sun Belt and RPI of 42 with RPI of 59
Bracket In:
Northwestern – beat Iowa and needs at least 1 win in the Big Ten tournament. Two wins would be preferred
Xavier – 10-6 in the A-10 get them in as one of the last 4
Loyola-MD – the two seed in the MAAC. Its either them or Fairfield at this point
UALR – the #2 seed in the Sun Belt. I think they lose to Denver anyway
Last thoughts:
I currently have Seton Hall in as the last team but I’m going back and forth on them versus Miami. Their profiles are very similar but Miami is 8-4 in their last 12 while the Hall is 4-8. I may switch them before posting the full Bracketology tomorrow morning
The Colonial is going exactly the way it needs to go to be a 2 bid league. VCU has a better profile so as long as they don’t get embarrassed I think they’re safe. The have a top 50 RPI now and Drexel is not that far behind at 63. It would be a crime if they both didn’t get in.
Bracket Out:
Texas – lost at Kansas on Saturday evening. Still very alive for a bid
Arizona – absolutely terrible loss to ASU today leaves their RPI had 78. Way too high for an at-large bid
Iona – lost in the their conference semi-final. Not enough in the profile for an at-large although the RPI of 42 will at least keep them in the conversation.
Middle Tennessee State – see Iona and replace MAAC with Sun Belt and RPI of 42 with RPI of 59
Bracket In:
Northwestern – beat Iowa and needs at least 1 win in the Big Ten tournament. Two wins would be preferred
Xavier – 10-6 in the A-10 get them in as one of the last 4
Loyola-MD – the two seed in the MAAC. Its either them or Fairfield at this point
UALR – the #2 seed in the Sun Belt. I think they lose to Denver anyway
Last thoughts:
I currently have Seton Hall in as the last team but I’m going back and forth on them versus Miami. Their profiles are very similar but Miami is 8-4 in their last 12 while the Hall is 4-8. I may switch them before posting the full Bracketology tomorrow morning
The Colonial is going exactly the way it needs to go to be a 2 bid league. VCU has a better profile so as long as they don’t get embarrassed I think they’re safe. The have a top 50 RPI now and Drexel is not that far behind at 63. It would be a crime if they both didn’t get in.
The 13's over the 4's
1985 - Navy over LSU
1987 - Xavier over Missouri
1988 - Richmond over Indiana
1989 - Middle Tennessee State over Florida State
1991 - Penn State over UCLA
1992 - SW Louisiana over Oklahoma
1993 - Southern over Georgia Tech
1995 - Manhattan over Oklahoma
1996 - Princeton over UCLA
1998 - Valpo over Ole Miss
1999 - Oklahoma over Arizona
2001 - Kent State over Indiana; Indiana State over Oklahoma
2002 - UNC Wilmington over USC
2003 - Tulsa over Dayton
2006 - Bradley over Kansas
2008 - Siena over Vanderbilt; San Diego over UConn
2009 - Cleveland State over Wake Forest
2010 - Murray State over Vanderbilt
2011 - Morehead State over Louisville
1987 - Xavier over Missouri
1988 - Richmond over Indiana
1989 - Middle Tennessee State over Florida State
1991 - Penn State over UCLA
1992 - SW Louisiana over Oklahoma
1993 - Southern over Georgia Tech
1995 - Manhattan over Oklahoma
1996 - Princeton over UCLA
1998 - Valpo over Ole Miss
1999 - Oklahoma over Arizona
2001 - Kent State over Indiana; Indiana State over Oklahoma
2002 - UNC Wilmington over USC
2003 - Tulsa over Dayton
2006 - Bradley over Kansas
2008 - Siena over Vanderbilt; San Diego over UConn
2009 - Cleveland State over Wake Forest
2010 - Murray State over Vanderbilt
2011 - Morehead State over Louisville
The 14's over 3's
1986 - Arkansas-Little Rock over Notre Dame; Cleveland State over Indiana
1987 - Austin Peay over Illinois
1988 - Murray State over North Carolina State
1989 - Siena over Stanford
1990 - Northern Iowa over Missouri
1991 - Xavier over Nebraska
1992 - East Tennessee State over Arizona
1995 - Old Dominion over Villanova; Weber State over Michigan State
1997 - UT-Chattanooga over Georgia
1998 - Richmond over South Carolina
1999 - Weber State over North Carolina
2005 - Bucknell over Kansas
2006 - Northwestern State over Iowa
2010 - Ohio over Georgetown
1987 - Austin Peay over Illinois
1988 - Murray State over North Carolina State
1989 - Siena over Stanford
1990 - Northern Iowa over Missouri
1991 - Xavier over Nebraska
1992 - East Tennessee State over Arizona
1995 - Old Dominion over Villanova; Weber State over Michigan State
1997 - UT-Chattanooga over Georgia
1998 - Richmond over South Carolina
1999 - Weber State over North Carolina
2005 - Bucknell over Kansas
2006 - Northwestern State over Iowa
2010 - Ohio over Georgetown
Daily Bubble Watch
Right now I don't anybody moving in or out of the bubble. I'm going to let the Sunday games play out before tweaking this weekend's bracket. Texas, BYU, South Florida, and Seton Hall all lost yesterday so they are potentially moving out. I think Seton Hall had the most to lose but it's hard to pull them out right now. Northwestern and Miami are the two most likely to move in tonight.
Today's bubble games are Arizona at Arizona State and the two Colonial Semi-Finals. If Arizona were to lose that would drop them out of the bracket as it would be a terrible RPI killer. VCU and Drexel need to get by George Mason and Old Dominion to keep up their at-large hopes. Both games are solid so a win would help their RPI as well.
Today's bubble games are Arizona at Arizona State and the two Colonial Semi-Finals. If Arizona were to lose that would drop them out of the bracket as it would be a terrible RPI killer. VCU and Drexel need to get by George Mason and Old Dominion to keep up their at-large hopes. Both games are solid so a win would help their RPI as well.
Auto-Bids Today
Missouri Valley
#2 Creighton vs #4 Illinois State
Creighton has started to play back into the form that made them a top 15 team. Yesterday they crushed Evansville while Illinois State was able to upset Wichita State. If Illinois State wins today the Missouri Valley is a 3 bid conference but I don't see that happening. Creighton wins and locks up a 5 seed.
#2 Creighton vs #4 Illinois State
Creighton has started to play back into the form that made them a top 15 team. Yesterday they crushed Evansville while Illinois State was able to upset Wichita State. If Illinois State wins today the Missouri Valley is a 3 bid conference but I don't see that happening. Creighton wins and locks up a 5 seed.
Saturday, March 3, 2012
More Conference tournament fodder
Whoever wins the Summit League tournament will try to do something no other school has done from that conference and that's win a tourney game as a member of the Summit. And no, the play-in doesn't count. Oral Bob actually made an elite 8 in 1974. That was when Oral Bob had a real strong conduit to God.
The Sun Belt has had some NCAA success. Western Kentucky is one of the better historical programs in terms of tourney berths. They've been to the dance 21 times and made the Final 4 back in 1971. They've had a recent history as a Cinderella as well beating Illinois as a 12 seed in 2009 and making the Sweet 16 in 2008 as a 12 seed. Louisiana-Lafyette, then known as SW Louisiana upset the 4 seed Oklahoma in the 1992 tournament.
Brian mentioned Weber State in the Big Sky preview and they're the one program from that conference that has found some W's in the Dance. Damian Lillard is a great player who could produce some great moments like Harold "The Show" Arceneaux did in 1999 when the 14 seeded Wildcats beat the mean Tar Heels. They also knocked off a member of the Axis of Evil, Michigan State in 1995 as a 14 seed led by the unflinching Ruben Nembhard. That was Jud Heathcote's last game. They lost at the buzzer in the 2nd round to Georgetown.
FACT: 1995 produced two 14 over 3 seed's and UWGB lost by a point to Purdue as a 14 seed. The only 14 seed blowout ironically enough was Maryland beating Gonzaga by 24. I also like to point out my bracket prowess by noting I picked Villanova and Michigan State to make the Final Four that year. Hey, at least I got the hard one right by picking UCLA.
The Sun Belt has had some NCAA success. Western Kentucky is one of the better historical programs in terms of tourney berths. They've been to the dance 21 times and made the Final 4 back in 1971. They've had a recent history as a Cinderella as well beating Illinois as a 12 seed in 2009 and making the Sweet 16 in 2008 as a 12 seed. Louisiana-Lafyette, then known as SW Louisiana upset the 4 seed Oklahoma in the 1992 tournament.
Brian mentioned Weber State in the Big Sky preview and they're the one program from that conference that has found some W's in the Dance. Damian Lillard is a great player who could produce some great moments like Harold "The Show" Arceneaux did in 1999 when the 14 seeded Wildcats beat the mean Tar Heels. They also knocked off a member of the Axis of Evil, Michigan State in 1995 as a 14 seed led by the unflinching Ruben Nembhard. That was Jud Heathcote's last game. They lost at the buzzer in the 2nd round to Georgetown.
FACT: 1995 produced two 14 over 3 seed's and UWGB lost by a point to Purdue as a 14 seed. The only 14 seed blowout ironically enough was Maryland beating Gonzaga by 24. I also like to point out my bracket prowess by noting I picked Villanova and Michigan State to make the Final Four that year. Hey, at least I got the hard one right by picking UCLA.
Auto-Bids Today
Big South
#1 UNC-Asheville vs #7 VMI
Asheville is looking for a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament and probably another play in game. VMI doesn’t belong here at all as the 7 seed. I think this is a blowout.
Ohio Valley
#1 Murray State vs #2 Tennessee State
Murray State is looking for revenge over the only team that beat them this year. If Tennessee State wins the Ohio Valley becomes a two bid conference for the first time in history. Murray State wins a close one and ends up a 6 seed come next Sunday
Atlantic Sun
#1 Belmont vs #6 Florida Gulf Coast
Florida Gulf Coast? I bet you’ve never heard of them. Belmont gets the easy road with Mercer going down to UFGC. The Bruins come out fast and never look back securing a 14 seed come Selection Sunday
#1 UNC-Asheville vs #7 VMI
Asheville is looking for a second straight trip to the NCAA Tournament and probably another play in game. VMI doesn’t belong here at all as the 7 seed. I think this is a blowout.
Ohio Valley
#1 Murray State vs #2 Tennessee State
Murray State is looking for revenge over the only team that beat them this year. If Tennessee State wins the Ohio Valley becomes a two bid conference for the first time in history. Murray State wins a close one and ends up a 6 seed come next Sunday
Atlantic Sun
#1 Belmont vs #6 Florida Gulf Coast
Florida Gulf Coast? I bet you’ve never heard of them. Belmont gets the easy road with Mercer going down to UFGC. The Bruins come out fast and never look back securing a 14 seed come Selection Sunday
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/3
Sun Belt:
Favorite – Middle Tennessee State - The Blue Raiders have been in the top 50 RPI all year long and only lost 2 games in conference. They played Vanderbilt tough last month and have 3 top 100 wins. I currently see them as a 13/14 seed.
Potential Upset – Denver Pioneers – the 3 seed has 3 top 50 wins themselves and have looked good all year. It would not surprise me if they made a run.
Summit:
Favorite – Oral Roberts – another low major with a top 50 RPI, the Golden Eagles only lost once to South Dakota State in conference play. Oral Bob has outside chance of an at-large bid if they don’t get the auto-bid
Potential Upset – South Dakota State – The Jackrabbits split the season series with Oral Roberts and owns a blowout win at Washington. If both make the final this would be a high scoring can’t miss game.
Big Sky:
Favorite – Montana – due to last week’s win over Weber State the Grizzlies snatched not only the top seed but also home court advantage in the tournament. That’s huge in making it back to the NCAA tournament
Co-Favorite – Weber State – it’s so close I’m calling Weber State a co-favorite instead of potential upset. Either team would be a 15 seed but seeing Damien Lillard in the tournament would be sweet. Plus, I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for Weber State after they upset the Tar Heels 15 years ago.
Favorite – Middle Tennessee State - The Blue Raiders have been in the top 50 RPI all year long and only lost 2 games in conference. They played Vanderbilt tough last month and have 3 top 100 wins. I currently see them as a 13/14 seed.
Potential Upset – Denver Pioneers – the 3 seed has 3 top 50 wins themselves and have looked good all year. It would not surprise me if they made a run.
Summit:
Favorite – Oral Roberts – another low major with a top 50 RPI, the Golden Eagles only lost once to South Dakota State in conference play. Oral Bob has outside chance of an at-large bid if they don’t get the auto-bid
Potential Upset – South Dakota State – The Jackrabbits split the season series with Oral Roberts and owns a blowout win at Washington. If both make the final this would be a high scoring can’t miss game.
Big Sky:
Favorite – Montana – due to last week’s win over Weber State the Grizzlies snatched not only the top seed but also home court advantage in the tournament. That’s huge in making it back to the NCAA tournament
Co-Favorite – Weber State – it’s so close I’m calling Weber State a co-favorite instead of potential upset. Either team would be a 15 seed but seeing Damien Lillard in the tournament would be sweet. Plus, I’ll always have a soft spot in my heart for Weber State after they upset the Tar Heels 15 years ago.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Conference Tournament Fodder
Brian previewed three of the more intriguing conference tournaments that are beginning today. All 3 of them have teams capable of springing upsets, Iona, VCU/Drexel & Davidson (Whose road got easier with a College of Charleston loss, today).
Also, all 3 conference have a history of producing upsets in the tournament.
The Colonial has been knocking off teams since the mid-to-late 80s. Navy and David Robinson just misssed making a Final Four when Navy was part of the Colonial. Richmond, as a Colonial member has upsets over Auburn, Indiana and Syracuse. They also beat South Carolina as a 14 seed in 1998. Old Dominion as a 14 seed beat Villanova in 3 ovt's. in 1995 led by the indomitable Petey Sessoms. Of course, we all know of the recent success of George Mason in 2006 and VCU last year. Probably the finest moment was in 2007 when VCU throttled Duke.
The MAAC has a little success as giant killers as well. Siena knocked off Vandy in 2008 as a 13 seed. Manhattan did the double dip in the 90s, knocking of Florida and Oklahoma in seperate tournaments as a 12 and 13.
Davidson made an Elite 8 in in 2008 before coming up just short to eventual champ, Kansas. In 1997, the Southern had two teams spring upsets in the first round when College of Charleston dumped Maryland and UT-Chattanooga made a Sweet 16 beating Georgia and Illinois before losing to Providence.
FACT: Richmond is the only school to have recorded wins in the NCAA tournament as a 12, 13, 14 & 15 seed.
Also, all 3 conference have a history of producing upsets in the tournament.
The Colonial has been knocking off teams since the mid-to-late 80s. Navy and David Robinson just misssed making a Final Four when Navy was part of the Colonial. Richmond, as a Colonial member has upsets over Auburn, Indiana and Syracuse. They also beat South Carolina as a 14 seed in 1998. Old Dominion as a 14 seed beat Villanova in 3 ovt's. in 1995 led by the indomitable Petey Sessoms. Of course, we all know of the recent success of George Mason in 2006 and VCU last year. Probably the finest moment was in 2007 when VCU throttled Duke.
The MAAC has a little success as giant killers as well. Siena knocked off Vandy in 2008 as a 13 seed. Manhattan did the double dip in the 90s, knocking of Florida and Oklahoma in seperate tournaments as a 12 and 13.
Davidson made an Elite 8 in in 2008 before coming up just short to eventual champ, Kansas. In 1997, the Southern had two teams spring upsets in the first round when College of Charleston dumped Maryland and UT-Chattanooga made a Sweet 16 beating Georgia and Illinois before losing to Providence.
FACT: Richmond is the only school to have recorded wins in the NCAA tournament as a 12, 13, 14 & 15 seed.
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/2
Colonial:
Co-Favorites - Drexel Dragons and VCU Rams – VCU has a better chance at an at-large bid but Drexel has only 1 loss in the past 2 months. Both should make the tournament but I’m saying they are both locks if they meet in the conference tournament final
Potential Upset – George Mason or Old Dominion – it would not surprise me if either of these teams got hot and won the auto-bid. As long as VCU and Drexel don’t flame out in the Semi-Finals I think this is a two bid league.
MAAC:
Favorite – Iona – one of the top low-major’s out there this is a team everybody should want to win the auto-bid. There isn’t enough behind them to grab an at-large and I can guarantee this is a 13 seed that will give one of the 4 seeded Big Ten team fits
Potential Upset – Fairfield Stags – my pick in the preseason they finished second in the league. They have the talent to give Iona a run in the second round although I believe they will come up short
Southern:
Favorite – Davidson – Here’s all you need to know about Davidson: They beat Kansas, at Kansas. Nuff said
Potential Upset - hmmm, how about Wofford. Yeah, they have as much of a chance as anybody (i.e. I think Davidson wins this no problem).
Co-Favorites - Drexel Dragons and VCU Rams – VCU has a better chance at an at-large bid but Drexel has only 1 loss in the past 2 months. Both should make the tournament but I’m saying they are both locks if they meet in the conference tournament final
Potential Upset – George Mason or Old Dominion – it would not surprise me if either of these teams got hot and won the auto-bid. As long as VCU and Drexel don’t flame out in the Semi-Finals I think this is a two bid league.
MAAC:
Favorite – Iona – one of the top low-major’s out there this is a team everybody should want to win the auto-bid. There isn’t enough behind them to grab an at-large and I can guarantee this is a 13 seed that will give one of the 4 seeded Big Ten team fits
Potential Upset – Fairfield Stags – my pick in the preseason they finished second in the league. They have the talent to give Iona a run in the second round although I believe they will come up short
Southern:
Favorite – Davidson – Here’s all you need to know about Davidson: They beat Kansas, at Kansas. Nuff said
Potential Upset - hmmm, how about Wofford. Yeah, they have as much of a chance as anybody (i.e. I think Davidson wins this no problem).
Friday Morning Bracketology
1 seed vs 16 seed
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Kansas (Big12) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
North Carolina vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Missouri vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Michigan State (B1G) vs Davidson (SoCon)
Ohio State vs Montana (Big Sky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
Marquette vs Belmont (Asun)
Wisconsin vs Drexel (CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Indiana vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Michigan vs Iona (MAAC)
Louisville vs VCU/Mississippi State
5 seed vs 12 seed
Creighton vs Seton Hall/Colorado State
Florida State vs Connecticut
Notre Dame vs Texas
Florida vs South Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
Temple (A10) vs Arizona
Vanderbilt vs BYU
UNLV vs West Virginia
Gonzaga vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Murray State (OVC) vs Washington (Pac12)
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
San Diego St vs Cincinnati
St. Mary's (WCC) vs California
8 seed vs 9 seed
Alabama vs Virginia
Memphis (Cusa) vs Kansas State
Purdue vs St. Louis
Iowa State vs Southern Miss
First Four Out
Xavier
Northwestern
Miami
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Oregon
St. Joseph's
Dayton
Wyoming
Also Considered
LaSalle
South Dakota State
Stanford
Kentucky (SEC) vs StonyBrook(Aeast)/MissValley(SWAC)
Syracuse (Beast) vs Savannah(MEAC)/UNC-Asheville(Bsouth)
Duke (ACC) vs Tex-Arlington(Sland)
Kansas (Big12) vs Long Island (NEC)
2 seed vs 15 seed
North Carolina vs Valparasio (Horizon)
Missouri vs Bucknell (Patriot)
Michigan State (B1G) vs Davidson (SoCon)
Ohio State vs Montana (Big Sky)
3 seed vs 14 seed
Baylor vs Nevada (WAC)
Georgetown vs Akron (MAC)
Marquette vs Belmont (Asun)
Wisconsin vs Drexel (CAA)
4 seed vs 13 seed
Wichita State (MVC) vs Oral Roberts (Summit)
Indiana vs MidTennState (Sbelt)
Michigan vs Iona (MAAC)
Louisville vs VCU/Mississippi State
5 seed vs 12 seed
Creighton vs Seton Hall/Colorado State
Florida State vs Connecticut
Notre Dame vs Texas
Florida vs South Florida
6 seed vs 11 seed
Temple (A10) vs Arizona
Vanderbilt vs BYU
UNLV vs West Virginia
Gonzaga vs Harvard (Ivy)
7 seed vs 10 seed
Murray State (OVC) vs Washington (Pac12)
New Mexico (Mwest) vs Long Beach State (Bwest)
San Diego St vs Cincinnati
St. Mary's (WCC) vs California
8 seed vs 9 seed
Alabama vs Virginia
Memphis (Cusa) vs Kansas State
Purdue vs St. Louis
Iowa State vs Southern Miss
First Four Out
Xavier
Northwestern
Miami
North Carolina State
Next Four Out
Oregon
St. Joseph's
Dayton
Wyoming
Also Considered
LaSalle
South Dakota State
Stanford
Thursday, March 1, 2012
March 1 Conference Tournament Addendums
In KenPom's predictions, the numbers say Wagner is actually the favorite in the NEC. The NEC has not won a NCAA tournament game. Bob Morris gave Villanova a scare a few years ago.
The Missourri Valley has 5 teams that finished at .500 and would have had 6 if Indiana State hadn't blown a late lead in its last game against Creighton. Arch Madness is always one of the better tournaments.
As a member of the America East in 1996, Drexel beat Memphis as a 12 seed. Drexel is now in the Colonial. Siena was a member of the America East when they upset Stanford in the first round in 1989.
The Missourri Valley has 5 teams that finished at .500 and would have had 6 if Indiana State hadn't blown a late lead in its last game against Creighton. Arch Madness is always one of the better tournaments.
As a member of the America East in 1996, Drexel beat Memphis as a 12 seed. Drexel is now in the Colonial. Siena was a member of the America East when they upset Stanford in the first round in 1989.
Conference Tournament Previews - 3/1
Missouri Valley:
Favorite – Wichita State Shockers – A top 25 RPI and nothing but win after win after win. Can the Shockers ride this wave to a top 4 seed?
Co-Favorite – Creighton Blue Jays – embarrassed by Wichita last time they have the revenge factor.
Potential Upset – Northern Iowa Panthers – I had this team pegged as a tournament team earlier in the year, they have the horses to win 3 in a row and make the Missouri Valley a 3 bid league
American East:
Favorite – Stony Brook Seawolves – Hey look! A play in game team!
Potential Upset – Vermont Catamounts – If only they still had Taylor Coppenwrath and TJ Sorrentine.
Northeast:
Favorite – Long Island Blackbirds – They are only listed as favorite because they got the #1 seed in the tournament. I do not expect them to win the auto-bid
Potential…Likely Upset – Wagner Seahawks – has three top 100 RPI wins and played UConn tough. When Wagner wins the auto-bid they’ll be a 15 seed. Did I mention their head coach is Danny Hurley and Bobby is an assistant? I did, okay, good.
Favorite – Wichita State Shockers – A top 25 RPI and nothing but win after win after win. Can the Shockers ride this wave to a top 4 seed?
Co-Favorite – Creighton Blue Jays – embarrassed by Wichita last time they have the revenge factor.
Potential Upset – Northern Iowa Panthers – I had this team pegged as a tournament team earlier in the year, they have the horses to win 3 in a row and make the Missouri Valley a 3 bid league
American East:
Favorite – Stony Brook Seawolves – Hey look! A play in game team!
Potential Upset – Vermont Catamounts – If only they still had Taylor Coppenwrath and TJ Sorrentine.
Northeast:
Favorite – Long Island Blackbirds – They are only listed as favorite because they got the #1 seed in the tournament. I do not expect them to win the auto-bid
Potential…Likely Upset – Wagner Seahawks – has three top 100 RPI wins and played UConn tough. When Wagner wins the auto-bid they’ll be a 15 seed. Did I mention their head coach is Danny Hurley and Bobby is an assistant? I did, okay, good.
Daily Bubble Watch
Bubble Out:
Northwestern – their comeback came a little short but all is not lost. They pass the eye test with yesterday’s game and there’s plenty left for them to get back into the bracket
Miami – A loss to another bubble team, North Carolina State, is damaging. If it comes down to one of those two, who do you take? Today…neither
Bubble In:
Colorado State – another big win and although they are one of the last 4 in right now I think they are close to moving further up in the bracket
Mississippi State – needed overtime to beat South Carolina but a win is a win. It’s best if they don’t lose over the weekend though
Northwestern – their comeback came a little short but all is not lost. They pass the eye test with yesterday’s game and there’s plenty left for them to get back into the bracket
Miami – A loss to another bubble team, North Carolina State, is damaging. If it comes down to one of those two, who do you take? Today…neither
Bubble In:
Colorado State – another big win and although they are one of the last 4 in right now I think they are close to moving further up in the bracket
Mississippi State – needed overtime to beat South Carolina but a win is a win. It’s best if they don’t lose over the weekend though
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