Seeding Vs Other Experts

As I posted my bracket this morning I took a gander at CBS and ESPN to see how I fared compared to what Joe Lunardi (ESPN) and Jerry Palm (CBS) had posted.  Now most people know Lunardi because of ESPN but Palm does do a good job forecasting on CBS.  He tends to be a little too RPI reliant and it tends to hurt him when the final bracket comes out.  A great site to check these things out is the Bracket Project which monitors and ranks more than 100 Bracketologists.

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

You’ll find over the past 3 years your’\s truly is ranked 4^th among all bracketologists using the “Paymon” scale.  Lunardi clocks in at 11^th so he does a great job too.  Palm falls further down but as I mentioned he tends to put too much seeding emphasis on RPI.

Rank	Website		2013	2014	2015	Total	Per Season
1	Jabesblog	Jabe	20.5	10.7	9.5	40.7	13.57
2	1-3-1 Sports	1/3/2001	18.5	9.7	10.5	38.7	12.90
3	Dre's Mock Bracket	Dre	13.5	14.7	6.5	34.7	11.57
4	Oak Creek's March Madness	Oak	19.5	2.7	12.5	34.7	11.57
5	Assembly Call - Andy Bottoms	AC	15.5	10.7	7.5	33.7	11.23
6	Wild Bill's Bracketology	Wild	12.5	10.7	10.5	33.7	11.23
7	Bradley01 Bracketology	BSB1	5.5	15.7	11.5	32.7	10.90
8	Blogging the Bracket	SBN	4.5	15.7	12.5	32.7	10.90
9	Sports News Huddle	SNH	17.5	0.7	13.5	31.7	10.57
10	Bracketville	BV	2.5	8.7	20.5	31.7	10.57
11	ESPN Bracketology - Joe Lunardi	ESPN	6.5	8.7	16.5	31.7	10.57

So, where do I currently differ from these national spokesmen?

Palm’s biggest differences are towards the bottom of the bracket where he has Texas Tech and Oregon State as an 8 and 9 seed.  I currently have them out.  The reason why he has them in and so high is their RPI’s are 32 and 38 respectively.  These are solid numbers however TT has only won 4 of its last 12 while Oregon State has only won 5 of 12.  These teams have been trending down for over a month and for them to only be 8 and 9 now means they had to be too high to begin with.  Another spot we differ is Wichita State who is currently an Automatic Qualifier from the Missouri Valley.  I have them as a 9 and an At-Large candidate.  He has them as a 12.  This one is probably more on me as I tend to have a soft spot for mid majors which burns me come Selection Sunday.  The last team is North Carolina who I have as a 1 and he has as a 3.  The top team from the top conference is not going to get lower than a 2.  That’s not even worth arguing.

Turning our attention to Lunardi the biggest issue I have with him is another team with an outrageous RPI, but this time it’s on the other end of the spectrum.  RPI’s above 70 is usually a no-no when it comes to at large bids and although my last two teams in this morning have a 70+ RPI Joe has LSU in and as a 7 SEED!  If a team gets in with a 72 RPI over a team with a 32 RPI (LSU over Texas Tech) people are going to go crazy.  If that 72 ranking team gets a 7 seed they might as well blow up the seeding altogether.  I’m not saying LSU isn’t a hard team to figure out because they are but a 7 seed is borderline loony bin territory.