Fraud Alert: Indiana

My bold predictions from January are looking ice cold like usual including Tom Crean would be coaching for his job. Instead, the Hoosiers are looking for their 2nd Big 14 title in 4 years. 

Before we dive into some numbers, we should be clear about their chances to win the Big 14 outright. They have a tricky game at Illinois tonight and then travel to Iowa next Tuesday before closing at home against Maryland. That's daunting even if Iowa is scuffling and Maryland is a pretender. All that said, it's been a good year in Bloomimgton.

The Hoosiers are 18th in KenPom overall. They're 10th in AdjustedO and 80th in AdjustedD. They are one of the best shooting teams in America. Their effective fg% is 58.7%, 2nd best. They shoot 41.8% from 3 which is 5th and 56% from 2, 8th best. They are also a good offensive rebounding team. Their offensive rebounding % is 37.7%, 14th best. They do have an issue and that's protecting the ball. Their turnover % is an awful 19.8%, 272nd.

The reason you should be leery of them in March is a mediocre defense. A lot of talking heads have talked about how much better they are on defense and given they were 214th a year ago, 80 is a drastic improvement. But in 2013, they were a top 30 defense. They're a long way from that. 

They have an effective defensive fg% of 49.8%, 170th. Teams shoot 34.6 from 3 and 48.9% from 2. They're not as strong on the defensive glass either. That's 113th overall.

Senior Yogi Ferrell runs the show but their best player is Troy Williams. Williams score 13 and gets 6 boards. Sophomore James Blackmon averages 16ppg and shoots 46% from 3. Frosh Thomas Bryant adds 11.5ppg and 5.5rpg. Michigan grad transfer Max Bielfeldt has been a solid player for them as well. Amazingly, Michigan fans have treated him well. Weird, Jarrod Uthoff wonders how that's possible.

Indiana has a chance to get to the second weekend. Beyond that is unlikely and that seems weird to say about a possible Big 14 champ. They have enough options that scoring shouldn't be an issue. Turnovers and defense will be what gets them. With a chance at a Big 14 title, Indiana and its coach can prove a lot of people wrong. Will they? I have my doubts but who doesn't like seeing Tom Crean cut down nets?